Karagin
02/10/04 04:34 AM
195.238.63.21
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Let's look back at the 1st SW:
IF Kurtia had pushed everything toward New Avalon instead of trying to grab Robinson, could they have taken NA in the first or second year of the fighting?
Let's hear some thoughts on this.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Ignorant_Savage
02/10/04 05:20 AM
24.197.176.136
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now here's a question to my liking.
i don't really think so, and here are my reasons:
1. robinson was a strategic objective. taking robinson gave the DC not only a strategic, but psychological advantage. the capture of robinson effectively destroyed the morale of the AFFC. it's a regional capital, and any way you look at it, it's a helluva blow. if memory serves me right, the FS was not able to take robinson itself back until at lest a century later.
2. a spearhead assault would not have been effective at the time. i belive this was twords the very beginning of the 1st war, and though davion forces were spread thin, without taking Robinson and the surrounding territories, the coordinator (minoru kurita, i think) knew they were powerfull enough to crush such a strike. the kuritans took a leap-frog approach, taking a planet as well as they could, and then moving forward when rear-echelon elements moved in to mop up what remained of the resistance. good strategy, too bad the old man bit the bullet (or was it a laser) on kentares.
3. even with the majoity of the FS forces deployed on the capellan border at the time, and even though they were in crappy shape, they still had enough manpower and hardware to defend the realm. kurita could've taken new avalon, but they wouldn't have been able to hold it for long. kentares was just the final nail in that coffin.
4. new avalon WAS the intended target of the DCMS attacks during the 1st war. the kentares masacre (which everyone would agree was the turing point in the offensive), and the boost this gave the AFFC was the only thing that stopped them from actually taking New Avalon.
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on the other hand:
if the DCMS had chosen to preform a spearhead assault, or moved their forces through a series of 'uncharted' systems, they MIGHT have been able to take new avalon. but this would've required at least 60%+ of their available forces; which combined with the fact that both borders would be virtualy undefended, and that there would be no bases for re-supply, makes either of these senarios both unlikely and foolhardy. besides, in any case, they wouldn't have been able to hold it for long. both kurita and davion would have been out of the fight effectively for a varitey of reasons, and we would've had a very diffrent inner sphere by the end of the 1st war.
---
by the way, thanks for bringing this one up. really brought out the old-school guy in me. i just wish i still had a copy of the orignial davion or kurita house books.
- Savage
"Those who trade away essential freedoms for a little saftey deserve neither freedom or saftey."
- Benjamin Franklin
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Cray
02/10/04 06:45 AM
68.200.106.169
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Maybe, maybe not. I think in conventional terms the Dracs might've done it, but I have no idea how nuke-happy the Davionistas might've gotten when their backs were against the wall.
It's also hard to predict the long term effects. Could the Combine hold Avalon for long? That's a LONG way from home. What would the Combine do after it got Avalon, demand recognition as First Lord or try to conquer the Suns?
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer
Disclaimer: Anything stated in this post is unofficial and non-canon unless directly quoted from a published book. Random internet musings of a BattleTech writer are not canon.
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Karagin
02/10/04 10:07 AM
62.128.179.3
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Nice reasoning and comments. I was having a similar discussion with some friends on What if the Germans had driven for Moscow without going towards Stalingard etc...and it accured to me that we had a similar event in the BT and so the idea came to mind and I started giving it some thought.
Again thanks for the comments I like the style you went with here, both the pros and the con and then some suggestions at how and why for both. Nicely done.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
02/10/04 10:09 AM
62.128.179.2
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Interesting addtional question. What would the Combine do once they took New Avlaon...that is something I am sure we could debate here since it does stay on topic quite well.
I think they would have to push a little deeper into the Suns but not much further. The blow of losing the capital and all would really hurt the AFFS and I think they would have been reeling form long time before the could get a leader that could lead some kind of counter to this.
Anyone else?
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nightward
02/10/04 06:44 PM
211.26.65.160
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It may not have been the First Sucession War, but I do recall that in another SW, the Combine's troops were poised over New Avalon and ready to lay waste to it. Then they all went home. I believe there was a Davion counter-attack somewhere, but it's been a while and I cannot remember.
The Draconis Combine is somewhat like the Clans, particularly the Jade Falcons when it came to making war. They had once all-but gutted the Lyran Commonwealth, having taken half its worlds. Then they decided that the Lyrans were soft and useless, realised they could not hope to administrate the worlds they'd taken, and packed up, went home, and took on the Davions instead.
The Combine has probably had several oppurtunities to bring the Federated Suns to its knees. They just never did it, probably because they felt it was dishonourable to attack an enemy whilst their back was turned.
In any case, the Draconis Combine is TEH PWN and the Federated Suns are TEH SUX0RS.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Ignorant_Savage
02/11/04 02:20 AM
24.197.176.136
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Quote:
I was having a similar discussion with some friends on What if the Germans had driven for Moscow without going towards Stalingard
much like the entirety of the sucession wars, woe to those who fight a two-front war. but hey, i play alot of the 'axis and allies' board game with a group of my friends, we get into that one all the time too.
if you've got anymore pre-3050 stuff you want to discuss, please feel free to bring it up. that's the old school, and lo, do i miss it.
-Savage
"Those who trade away essential freedoms for a little saftey deserve neither freedom or saftey."
- Benjamin Franklin
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Ignorant_Savage
02/11/04 02:30 AM
24.197.176.136
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i think it would've taken a helluva lot of the DCMS's strength to take New Avalon, much less hold it. this would leave them vulnerable to an assault by the lyrans, the lyrans vulnerable to the FWL, the FWL vulnerable to the capellans. it would've been a classic case of the 'serpent biting it's tail', if you'll forgive the pun in this case.
in short, the destruction of new avalon would've caused the 1st sucession war to be many magnitudes more destructive than it already was. without the kentares massacre (as brutal as it was) and the morale boost it gave the AFFC, the inner sphere would be a very diffrent place by the year 3000. people used to talk about that as the dark age, well, i think that the dark age that would've ensued if new avalon was taken during the 1st war would've made the one that exsisted during that time pale in comparison.
"Those who trade away essential freedoms for a little saftey deserve neither freedom or saftey."
- Benjamin Franklin
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Cray
02/11/04 06:29 AM
68.200.106.169
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Quote:
I think they would have to push a little deeper into the Suns but not much further. The blow of losing the capital and all would really hurt the AFFS and I think they would have been reeling form long time before the could get a leader that could lead some kind of counter to this.
I think the Combine would shift from further advances to consolidation and expansion of holdings nearer the Combine, like chunks of the Draconis March.
I also think the Combine would put a puppet on the New Avalon throne. The Combine's had claims to the FedSuns throne in recent memory - I think that was a cause of one of the Star League Hidden Wars.
So, puppet or appeaser, whoever ends up on the FS throne does what the Combine wants:
1) Acknowledges the Combine claim to the throne of the Star League
2) Gives the Combine healthy chunks of territory, perhaps so the FS can turn and deal with the (almost certainly emboldened) Confederation
Will the Combine hold this? It will probably loose some of its "highwater mark" holdings quickly, both because it's consolidating its position (I'm not sure Jingiro can allow that though, unless the reason for this success is that Jinjro's dad wasn't sniped) and because of local rebellions. The Combine will be stretched thin. Of course, the Combine may be in a "rule by terror" mode - it'll have warships and will be willing to use nukes this early in the Succession Wars.
Basic problem: insufficient information for firm speculation.
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer
Disclaimer: Anything stated in this post is unofficial and non-canon unless directly quoted from a published book. Random internet musings of a BattleTech writer are not canon.
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Karagin
12/04/05 02:48 AM
24.243.178.223
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ANyone have any more input for this one?
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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