chez
06/24/05 12:04 PM
62.173.81.122
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Is it "realistic" that the Dragoons fought the DCMS forces to a standstill during the fourth Succession War?
I know author fiat plays a part in it but has anyone played out the battles. I think there is a scenario pack- has anyone used it.
The Dragoons are an elite force using some lostech but they are massively outnumbered.
What do people think?
chez
"In order to stab someone in the back it is first necessary to get right behind them" Sir Humphrey Appleby
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Karagin
06/25/05 12:20 AM
63.157.56.187
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During the battles of the DMCS vs Dragoons, no lostech beyond mechs like the Hoplite and Hornet and Flea, were used. The Dragoons didn't show their uber tech until well after the IS had it's own version.
I have been in a couple of the scenarios and they have normaly been even scenarios. None have been one sided. There were a couple I believe in the scenario pack More Tales of the Black Widow.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nightward
06/26/05 01:09 AM
203.206.17.165
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Totally realistic.
The Dragoons were probably the most elite fighting force circulating at the time, and the Ryuken they faced were an outfit they'd trained themselves.
They did win, but it was a victory that gutted both sides.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
06/26/05 02:05 AM
63.157.56.198
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Very true. The fighting put a big crimp in Jamie's plans and while it also allowed TPTB to use it as excuse to rearm them with Clan tech and what not, it was one of the more interesting moments of the history of BT. Heck I knew folks who were righting the Dragoons off after the 4th Sucession War.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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chez
06/29/05 10:03 PM
62.173.81.122
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I agree that as the Dragoons had trained the Ryuken it gave them a big advantage but also involved were the 17th , 5th and 21st Galedon Regulars plus the 8th Sword of Light and the 3rd Proserpina Hussars. They are just the units trying to eliminate the Dragoons prior to the 4th Succession war. When that kicked off more Kurita house units were thrown into the fray.
That the Dragoons could (and maybe should) win on Misery isn't in doubt but that they could fend off all-comers on that portion of the FS/DC border is more the question I was asking.
Especially as the Dragoons took 60% reduction in force on Misery.
Sure, they're Elite- but are they that Elite?
If the DCMS were serious about "Death to Mercenaries" surely they could have done better.
chez
"In order to stab someone in the back it is first necessary to get right behind them" Sir Humphrey Appleby
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Karagin
06/29/05 11:33 PM
63.157.56.51
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Dpends on how well and up to the TO&E the DCMS troops were. Sure on paper the Combine units could look really tough, but the actually strengths on the ground can widely differ.
Given that the fighting that was going on the Lyran border and the whole Bushido fighting code, things could still be in favor of the Dragoons and also the same code and thinking about these are just honorless mercs could have also played into HOW the Combine commanders went about their attacks on the Dragoons.
Also while the FS/DC border had it's share of battles the DCMS was focused on the Lyran border mostly and that was to them a bigger threat.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Kenjiro
07/01/05 02:11 AM
203.32.87.250
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I agree. Wolf's Dragoons would have used every trick in the book to win, where as the DCMS would have followed the tried and true method that their honour allowed. In Lethal Heritage, Hanse Davion is speaking to Victor, and he states that beating the DCMS was easy, as they always did the same thing and so were predictable, until Theodore changed their tactics/understanding of Honour. From all the stuff I have, this seems to be a correct assessment of the DCMS.
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Karagin
07/01/05 02:41 AM
63.157.57.26
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Which means that the operations against the Dragoons would have be run by men who wouldn't graspe the idea that chargnig forward INTO the guns of the Dragoons wasn't going to win the day unitl it was way to later for them to change tactics.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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chez
07/01/05 11:52 AM
62.173.81.122
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That is pretty much the answer I expected, after all the dragoons were the best the inner sphere had to offer.
So the next question is- If 10 DCMS Regiments against the Dragoons 5 was not enough how many would be?
I know this is an almost impossibly broad question to answer as it does depend on WHICH DCMS regiments but even green garrison troops would win given enough numbers.
Even if you were to "cherry pick" the best DCMS had to offer (sword of light etc) could they do it realistically. I think any victory could at best be described as "Pyrric" for either side.
If Hanse had known how stupid the Combine would be and how hard the Dragoons would fight could he have launched a Galahad style assault down the length of the Kurita border and had similar successes to the ones he enjoyed against CapCon. (I understand that the CapCon assault was 2-3 years in the making and logistics would be impossible but I'm talking what if)
The border had only been stable because AFFS and DCMS forces had been evenly matched with Davion gaining 5 elite regiments and Kurita losing the same 5 PLUS all the damage the Dragoons did during "Hegira". That must have meant a massive shift in the correlation of forces along the border and maybe led to the Chaos March being created in a different portion of space.
How would THAT affect BT history as we know it?
I was just typing as I was thinking but what a great alternate reality
Would the war of 3040 happen and if it did would Davion win?
How much easier would the Ghost Bear and Smoke Jaguar invasion corridor be?
Would Rasalhague be created?
Would Bulldog be launched from Steiner space?
Pie in the sky but a great concept 
Move over Harry Turtledove! 
chez
"In order to stab someone in the back it is first necessary to get right behind them" Sir Humphrey Appleby
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Karagin
07/01/05 11:26 PM
63.157.59.247
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Hanse could do it, but again the material needed would have been tight and any setbacks would stop the whole thing cold.
The fight against the Combine would have happen, given all the bad blood, IF the CapCon hadn't pulled the little dopplerganger game, which Hanse took as a personal attack on him and his family. The invasion like he did against the CapCon being done against the Combine would I think have given both sides a big bloody noes, while the FedSuns could have gotten similar results if they had the same amount of troops and supplies as the operation against the CapCon did. The end results being that the FedSuns have a longer border with Combine made up of all former Combine planets. Rasalhague might still happen since it would further draw things away and add one more crack in the Combine's social and political structure.
As for the Clan questions...hard to say they would even come back through that part, noting that they didn't come through the well weaken CapCon. As for a new Chaos March, no I dont' see that happening. But a longer drawn out guerrillia war I see happening on a lot of the former Combine planets.
The Dragoons could have been beat with better tactics and use of force as well as some control over the DCMS units by their commanders, but given the level of thingking and culturial bias against forigne/merc units things were stacked against the DCMS. IF you want to go with that still in the picture I would say an 18 to 1 or 21 to 1 advantage for the DCMS in both mech and vehicle units against the Dragoons.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Kenjiro
07/02/05 05:44 AM
203.32.87.250
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It is an interesting question. I am actually attempting to set up a campaign whereby the 4th Succession War will occur in 3 years time, and I looking at the possibility of Theodore being captured, rather than getting away. If the 4th Skye Rangers had taken along the support units, would it make a difference?
As to numbers required, I think 20 to 1 with the standard thinking of the DCMS. Most units would need to be Veteran or better, and the Dragoon's would have to have a little bad luck.
As to Hanse Davion hitting the DCMS instead of Capellan Confederation, if the LCAF forces again scared themselves pissless by their successes, then I could see the DCMS having been reduced in size by around 10%, but then the forces arrayed against the combined forces of FS and LCAF would have made it a slug fest. IF the Lyran's and the Feddies could combine without problems, then the DCMS could have been in desparate straits, with up to 25% of the stars lost before the slug fest. Unfortunately too many LCAF generals had no tactical/battle experience (social generals) and would never dream of allowing FS generals to lead their troops, so this scenario is probably not an option.
I dont see a change in the location of the Chaos marches, just an increase in the size, to include the stars taken from the DCMS. The Marches were always going to blow up, it was just a matter of time.
The war in 3040, probably would have occurred due to the bad blood between FS and DCMS, but there are a few variables that would need to be looked at. If Theodore was captured would the DCMS get Star League mechs from ComStar? Would ComStar still destroy one of their own Generators to force FS to allow them to garrison the HPG stations? With the loss of Theodore even if for only a couple of years, would the DCMS change its tactics in time to forestall another beating? Would Wolf's Dragoons help the FS to defeat the DCMS? Unfortunately with so many variables, it would be hard to tell whether or not Davion would have won. The BT history looks to have been written to keep as much as possible even, and so the merging of LCAF and FS was always going to fail. If the FS/LCAF forces were able to really hurt the DCMS, then I am sure the DCMS would have gotten what ever help it needed to balance out the states again.
As for the Clans, they appear to have been added just to help whittle down the Inner Sphere forces, and to force technological advancement. It also got rid of the loose end, of what happened to Kerensky. I expect the same results would have occurred, as any major deviation is not in the interest of the balanced BT history (I have seen nothing of the Dark Ages stuff, but from what I have read in these boards, it is a total screw up of the BT fiction).
I believe most of the other stuff would have gone as expected, as there would have been no major change in the strengths and weaknesses of most of the states, except that the CapCom would not have been so defeated.
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Thor_Mech
07/06/05 03:49 PM
138.67.15.85
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Another thing about the Dragoons taking apart Kuritan forces is morale. The Dragoons were pretty angry, and I think that green Kurita troops would probably break with enough firepower thrown at them.
"Even after all these years, walking through the ranks of 'Mechs still gives me the chills"
- Intelligence Secretary Justin Xiang Allard
Outreach, 21, Sept 3051
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Nimon
07/06/05 07:01 PM
63.120.82.166
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Actually DCMS units were some of the finest around for thier experience level. Their problem was that each general was competing with the others to gain more glory. This caused them to sometimes throw caution out the window as they tried to 'Avenge the Coordinators Honor'. This in turn made them reckless with thier forces which allowed Jamie to pick when and where his people would fight and when they would run. If the forces that were amassed against the Dragoons had some coordination between them and less competion the Dragoons would not have even made it out of Combine space.
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Nimon
07/06/05 07:10 PM
63.120.82.166
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I do not think that a push into combine space could have been achived. Remember almost 70% of the mercs and over 50% of the regular troops in the Fed Suns was in Cap Con space. This would leave very few (and even fewer elite) regiments free to exploit the foolish actions the coordinator did. The only thing that kept the Lyrans from rolling all over the Combine was that most of thier Generals were more interested in parades and establishing command and control, than pressing thier advantage that they were to slow to exploit opertunities which in turn allowed Combine forces to shift and offer more resistance. Not saying the Combine was better, just faster to react to the changing battlefield than their counterpart, which is one of the principles of modern warfare, mobility of forces.
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Karagin
07/06/05 11:49 PM
63.157.59.9
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DCMS units had their best and their worst, just like the other House militaries. Yes the Generals fought each other in sparring matches as who was better etc...all of these things including the Coorindator's inaction as well as meddling cause things to favor the Dragoons. And if you would note, Jamie picked the worlds he did since they were close to the FedSuns in case he had to jump the border.
Even with the Generals working together, it would still take numbers to match the skills of the Dragoons. The Combine isn't going to throw their best up against the Dragoons when things on the Lyran Front weren't fully under control, you might see 3 or 4 elite units mixed into the 15 to 20 units ordered to take out the Dragoons, but I doubt that would be enough for anything more the Phyrric victory in the end.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/06/05 11:54 PM
63.157.59.9
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You missed the point, the question seems to be take what happen to the CapCon and transpose it to the Combine, same forces attack the Combine from the FedSuns as were actually used to attack CapCon. That what he is asking. Flipping the invasion from one spot to another.
So no attack on the CapCon would take place in the 4th War, at least not as we know it to have happen.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/06/05 11:56 PM
63.157.59.9
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Most troops will break if hit with enough firepower, elite or green, if the lose of command and control go a unit or units will fall apart.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/07/05 10:25 AM
63.120.82.166
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There was a scenario in BATTLETROOPS that 7th commandos had to break into a ComStar facility to signal all Dragoon units to leave, and it stated in the scenario that Jamie knew if all the dragoons did not leave at the same time the stragglers would have been killed off, and he could not risk alerting the combine by taking time via normal courier. the Combine shut the city down and even put troops on the street to stop the Kommandos from getting into the facility (and failed obviously). This is what I meant. The Combine never trusted merchs and always had forces equal to the Dragoons on each world. If part of the Dragoons started to leave, you can bet the stragglers would have met fierce aerospace resistance as they tried to get to thier jump ships. that is why it has to be a Hyperpulse message and all Dragoons had to retreat about the same time.
as for on the Lyran front, yes the Lyrans did well. But according to the 4th succession war books I have read. they were not as successful as the Fed Suns thought they would be because their generals while willing to fight, lacked a lot of the more needed military stratagies to beat the Combine over a massive front. You have to admit that the DC was every match for the FS before the war, and the reason the LC was never pushed back was that they could out produce the DC with larger and more powerful weapons (not nessesaiarly the skills needed to exploit this advantage until after the merge of the 2 great houses)
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Nimon
07/07/05 10:36 AM
63.120.82.166
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I doubt that they would have had the same success vs the DC. While the Coordinator may have been lacking after the war started, his military was more than prepared for invasions from the FS, more so than CC (which is why the attacks started, military axiom is always eliminate the smaller threats first so you do not have a lot of little dogs nipping at your heels when you in the big fight). Also because the Chancellor was more insane hanse knew he would be less stable when the pressure was on and thus would make more mistakes. Also there were rifts in the CC even before the war started where as the combine along that front was united. the Dieron, Benjmian and Galdon Districts are some of the best the Combine has to offer (in comparrison to the Dieron of the time). And they have had many active skirmishes along that front. Another thing people do not remember is that Hanse did 6 military manvers before the big invasion. the first manuver on the CC front put them on high state of readiness, the next exercise was on the DC front which was also meet whith high readiness. the 3rd was back on the CC front which was not meet with as much anticipation. The 4th was back on the DC front which again meet high readiness, thenback to the CC fromt to a medium leevl of readiness, back to the DC at a high state, and then back to CC for the invasion. Being a military state high state of readiness was already incorporated into the Combines Imperial expenses. CC being a less military state had to pay for the higher state of readiness which lead to the lower and lower state each exercise. Thing is Hanse took a big gamble as each time he did his exersices he put the FS further and further into the red, he had to go to war to get a lot to resources to replenish his coffers. LC also did similar manuvers but not to the same scale as the FS. (Of course we all know LC could be at high readiness for ever with thier economy). This also is why limited success was meet on that front as reniforcement units were in position to reinforce worlds where the advance was stalled.
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Karagin
07/07/05 11:18 AM
63.157.234.4
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Forces equal to the Dragoons, don't mean elite units babysitting merc units. It means that the forces combined on the planet would roughly be the same size of the merc unit. Noting here that means milita and police as well as military units.
The Combine isn't going to park elite units on all the worlds they have merc, that is something even the most hidebound general or military thinker isn't going to do since the elite troops would be needed to stiffen areas that the enemy has broken through at or is about to or to launch counter attacks of their own.
You are again missing the what if part of this, the 4th War happens with the FedSuns attack the Combine instead of the CapCon. The same forces used in the canon attack on the CapCon would be there for use on the Combine. Adding in the Lyran attacks to this, it doesn't matter how bad or successful they are, they tie up troops and thus the Combine can't react to the attacks made by the FedSuns.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/07/05 11:27 AM
63.157.234.4
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There were and still are rifts in the Combine and I think Hanse would have used the infighting among the higher ranking Combine generals and warlords to his advantage. Given all that went into the CapCon invasion I think if Hanse had stayed focused on the Combine as he was up till the whole dopplenganger deal, then similar actions as we saw happen against the CapCon via the Justin Allard adventures and other spy/covert actions would have happen and while the Combine might have put up a stiffer fight, they would have been fighting on two fronts, and even if the Lyrans never attacked they Combine couldn't afford to pull troops from that border since they still might. Toss in the FedSun and the Lyrans causing the Rasalhauge groups to rise up and attack the DCMS units in their space would add further issues the DCMS would have to deal with. Then groups similar to the Black Dragons and others, would make their own moves and IF events are still similar where Jamie throws the swords at the feet of the Coordinator on Terra and he still has the heart attack, mild or not, then good old Takashia isn't at his full prime and thus he's not running the day to day leadership of the military.
So similar events could happen, while not on as large or as impressive as the canon events in the CapCon, I think the Suns could have pushed through the Combine's Terran Corridor worlds and linked up with their Lyran allies thus giving them the needed link.
Now the question comes up, would this scare Mairk and Laio in to attacking both the Suns and Commonwealth or would they be to afraid to attack?
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/07/05 01:28 PM
63.120.82.166
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I know about not having Elite troops there. What I said was tehy had equal forces (the combine never trusted mercs completely)
As far as the attacks. again look at the Cap Con Military vs DC military. They have fewer units, so the attack by the FS looked impressive because they had over whelming forces. It would not have been so on the DC front as they have more mech regiments along the Fed Suns. Also as I have stated every time FS brought more forces in region DC reacted by increased Military rediness which would have done much to hamper any assaults. Most of the Liao worlds fell before they knew they were being invaded as most aerospace assets were on the ground on phase 1.
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Nimon
07/07/05 01:33 PM
63.120.82.166
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No, dispite the interal rife of the warlords they maintained loyalty to the Coordinator if nothing else out of fear. Also Hanse had to keep the invasion on the Cap Con side, else he would have lost his Curius March to the Govonor over there (I forget his name) who was making deals with the Cap Con people. The invasion allowed hanse to keep more of his loyal troops in the area and thus prevent any move for power against New Avalon. Hanse knew the Draconis March was solidly loyal to him, just the other side was a place where the civil unrest was growing. You can not leave that out of the equation as Both hanse and Katrina had internal problems just not on the same scale as Cap Con. And while DC had internal rivalies none would dare go against the Coordinator outside his own family (Theodore). At least that is what I gathered in all the house books I have read.
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Karagin
07/07/05 04:06 PM
63.157.58.184
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You are fogetting that all of the powers had gotten use to the FedSuns little military excerisies so any rise of troops would have be something they wouldn't have reacted to in a major way, yes they might move some troops in but they won't be able to match all of the numbers since the Lyrans would be moving troops as well.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/07/05 04:11 PM
63.157.58.184
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Noting that, but the question here has nothing do with the CapCon, if you check the canon history PRIOR to the relase of the novels via the House Books, everything was pointing to a major war between the Combine and Suns. Then things switched to the CapCon after Sword and Dagger came out. The question raised here in the what if is asking you and the rest of us to forgo the CapCon, and look at thing from that point of view.
IF you have read the house books you would have seen that the Combine and Suns were more then ready to bashed heads UNTIL the PTB changed things to have the Cappies as bad guys.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/07/05 04:57 PM
63.120.82.166
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Yes, I know. And for the longest time FASA was not sure which way they wanted to go with the FS/DC war as all but one boarder war in the past had been DC gets inital gains followed by FS pushing them back. Both sides knew how the other thought and made war.
Now to the point of both LC and FS troops hitting DC. It has been brought up many times in the past. Biggest problem with that is. you need at least 5 to 1 advantage to take and hold ground. That is a military axiom. The Defender always has an advantage vs an attacker in a straight up fight. Force multipliers are from deception and the like. Assuming that both sides have compitent commanders DC would be able to dig in and 'Hold the line' long enough for the FS to have its own internal strife. According to the house book all the regional commander of the Cirius March (again I forget his name) needed was for Hanse to be bogged down in a war for him to make his move for power. It was also noted in the book that Hanse knew that this was going to happen (and after the 4th succession war that gov lost a lot of political clout and was assassinated by a 'Capallen' assassin). If Hanse had a bulk of his forces tied up in a war his flank would have been exposed to this person who never hid his ambitions for power. Hanse was smart by putting the bulk of his troops in that area because if this Gov. tried to start an uprising the troops are already there and already mobilized for war. the Draconis March was strong enough to stall any DC attack that might have happened, and with the Dragoons switching sides to FS just ensured that that boarder was secure from the Dragons reach.
To the Lyran side. There were many in the Lyran High Court that were very opposed to the idea of war with the DC (notably Skye District which was 1/3 of the DC boarder) as they did not support Hanses dream of expansion and his grab for 1st Lord. Also a good number of the Generals did not want to war with DC all out because they were fearful of the FWLM (at the time probably wrongly but that is a matter of speculation). Many made the point that they might grab many DC poor worlds only to lose many rich LC worlds to FWLM. That is why the push by LC was no where near the same intensity as FS was into CC.
Knowing this if FS and LC attacked DC they would have had good inital gains but vs a militaristic society like DC was they would get bogged down and have thier units tied up. CC was always a very opertinistic house and they would have invaded FS lightly garrisoned world in the chance to regain their former homeworlds taken long ago. FWLM could have done the same thing and took a few worlds from the lyrans but I doubt that they would have done much more than what they did in the 4th Succession War, but the morale boost is Marik would have needed to unite more of the splintered groups together.
Also do not forget the ComStar interdiction that was imposed on FS, against a larger more agressive House (not the shattered CC) many of thier forces would have been isolated and easily destroyed once they were stalled out. In fact CC started making a good showing vs FS units once the Interdition was impossed, but lacked the military to exploit it totally.
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Karagin
07/07/05 05:58 PM
65.140.156.51
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Good point on the ComStar interdiction, that would have monkeyed everything Hanse did on the Combine border.
I see your points, and yes the fighting would have been brutal and stalemating sooner rather then later. But I do think a combined effort by the LC and the FS could have gotten them the Derion area for certain and a few other worlds along the border, tossing in the Raselhauge rebellion and the Combine could still pull back and readjust faster at that point then the LC and FS could. End results would be a linked FedCom that would be over extendted and hard pressed to defend what it got. The Combine, I don't would have fallen in the shambles that CapCon did. I see it being hurt and hurt bad but not falling apart. Theodore wasn't as wacky as Laio's kids so that would be their saving grace.
Now the War of 3039 or 3045, could have been against the CapCon and might have turned out as the canon one versus the Combine. Or Hanse could have tried again to take on the Dragon. Still the results would have very interesting to see.
I wonder if ComStar would have moved faster to support the Combine then it did to help out the CapCon...
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nightward
07/07/05 07:54 PM
202.161.15.111
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I really doubt it. For a start, Kanrei Theodore Kurita was heading up the Lyran Allaince border; he's shown in the past that Field Marshall Nondi Steiner and Frederick Steiner (the best military leaders on the Lyran side) can't hope to equal his strategy.
Also, he had access to the Legions of Vega, Alshain Regulars, and would have used the Pesht District as mobile reserves. The Genyosha were also in the area. Given the Lyran Alliance's poor record against units like those, Theodore would have at least stymied their advance, if not beaten them back.
Also, the Draconis Combine enjoys a very good relationship with ComStar during this time, evidenced by the Guard's sale of SLDF 'Mechs to the Combine. The appearance of such vintage machines caused a number of problems during the War of 3039 for invading units. If the Lyran Alliance had acted in concert with the Federated Suns, ComStar would have either mobilised the Guard (Operation Scorpion early) or convinced the Free Rasalhague Republic to reinforce the Combine's flank.
Meanwhile, the Davion border would have been, for the most part, a shambles. What happens along it would have depended on how soon Theodore could tie down the Lyrans (he could have then left the Operational Area under the command of the Genyosha) and what his father would allow him to do.
I think a push on both sides would have caused the DCMS to adopt the Tiger and Phoenix programs much more swiftly, because they would have been immediately neccessary to turn the tide. With the additional military power granted to the Kanrei, his reforms would have occurred much more swiftly, probably resulting in more units structured like the Legion of Vega or the Amphigean Light Assualt Groups.
Also, with the forces described here, the Lyran Alliance and Federated Suns would leave themselves unguarded. Five gets you ten that the Free Worlds League launches a major offensive on the Lyran Alliance- they'd have been waiting for a shot like that for years. Also, the Federated Suns' greatest weapon, Justin Xiang Allard, would not be deployed against the Combine.
In the end, the Draconis Combine might loose some worlds along its border marches, but would quickly repel the invaders.
Of course, in an altered timeline like that, the entire Inner Sphere is screwed come the Clan Invasion- because there's no Anastasius Focht. It's also doubtful that the Free Rasalhague Republic would have stood so long without his aegis...
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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chez
07/07/05 08:29 PM
62.173.81.122
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The Comstar interdiction was only imposed due to Precentor Dieron ( I can't remember her name) feeding information to the FS that Sarna was weak. She did this as she had forced Julian Tiepolo into drawing a line in the sand at Sarna. Whether she could have achieved this if the assault had fallen on the DC is doubtful as she had an obvious vested interest.
The key point is that the Dragoons were guarding a decent stretch of the border and when they switched sides not only did the DCMS lose them but the damage done to all combine units thrown at them from surrounding systems left a dirty great hole in Combine defences. We are talking approx 15 regiments either destroyed or severely depleted. That is a massive portion of frontline units MIA/KIA.
Now when you start adding in the forces that were used in the CC invasion:-
Davion heavy,light medium and assault Guards
8 Crucis lancer Regs
Plus all the Draconis March forces (who were by and large better troops than those on the CC border ) you've got a really serious force who are going to get at least 2 "free" waves of attack until the DCMS can reposition itself to "repel boarders". then what you've got is a proper showdown - The Fox versus Theodore without Comstar interference.
I'd buy a ringside seat
Also if the AFFS move quickly they could save more of the Dragoons adding to their own forces and further weakening the DC.
In a previous thread we looked at could the FS gone further into the CC and I believe the answer was "YES" due to the CC troops were nearing the point of collapse. If the AFFS did drop multiple regiments into this huge hole in Combine defences and push on could the DC start to fold especially as any troops thrown into the fray would either be green garrison troops or forces pulled from the Lyran border (not an attractive option given the fighting there).
Could we have even seen Warlords thinking "We are going down here. Should i keep my troops and create the Greater Kingdom of Pesht or whatever"
This is all speculative but I like what ifs 
chez
"In order to stab someone in the back it is first necessary to get right behind them" Sir Humphrey Appleby
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Karagin
07/08/05 12:11 AM
63.158.169.182
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You are assuming that Theodore makes it off of Vega, he wasn't running anything until later on in the war AFTER getting off of Vega.
So while he might be able to pull the Combine's nuts out of the fire, I don't think it would happen very fast and meanwhile the Combine is still stuck with hidebound warlords and officers who won't change their thinking even when faced with defeat. We saw this enough even when the Clans invaded in the canon history.
I doubt ComStar would have pulled it's ace card number two aka the ComGuard until after all three sides had bloodyed themselves to the point of stalemate. The only card I see ComStar play is the Raselhague one, mainly since it foreces the Lyrans to give up gains. The main thing they could do was give aid to the Combine and the Interdiction.
As for the FWL doing anything, maybe, but ONLY if Lyrans suffer massive defeats and are totally routed back into Stiener space. The FWL was mess at this time and the Mairks had their hands full dealing with that mess. CapCons might get some grand ideas but even then they might be limited.
Overall if the same force is thrown at the Derion region of Combine space as was thrown at the CapCon, I can see that falling and being held by the combined forces of the FS and LC.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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