Karagin
01/17/03 06:36 PM
68.21.149.51
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Gone after the Dragoons during the 4th War and actually used his forces to counter or react to the attacks by the Suns and Commonwealth? Would this have changed the outcome of this part of the 4th War?
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Toastrider
01/18/03 12:22 AM
172.156.107.188
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Interesting idea. However, it hinges on something serious: Jaime Wolf and House Kurita.
Right before the 4th Succession War, Jaime Wolf took Takashi Kurita seriously to task for what Wolf felt was Takashi's actions (through subordinates) against both the Dragoons and Minobu Tetsuhara. At the prenupital reception. In front of a hell of a lot of onlookers. (Wolf also humiliated ComStar ROM by smuggling in Tetsuhara's daisho, but that's another tale)
I'm not sure Takashi could have reacted any other way than the way he did when Hanse launched his surprise attack. However, let's assume something unexpected happens; the combined effect of Wolf insulting him and the attack are too much for Takashi's heart or brain, and he has a stroke or heart attack and dies. Theodore assumes the mantle of Coordinator.
At this point, things could get very ugly for the Suns and the Commonwealth. Theodore is not his father; he's far more flexible, and definitely smarter. Expect counterattacks, similar to what was seen in the War of 3039, to keep the Commonwealth from gaining too many worlds, but the end result would probably be the same.
However, as Theodore is running the whole show as of 3030, this could make some SERIOUSLY interesting changes in future conflicts. Theodore could proceed full-speed with his reforms of the DCMS, without interference from Takashi, possibly even stopping the worst of the Ronin Wars if he allowed the Rasalhague worlds to secede. More likely, though, Theodore could probably seek a diplomatic compromise that might keep the Rasalhagian systems in the Combine -- something similar to the Azami, maybe.
When 3039 rolls around, Theodore knocks Hanse's assault flat on its ass with a DCMS that is further along the line to being a superior force than it was in canon. He might even seize Commonwealth worlds, forcing Hanse to let up and shift units to the Lyran side to fend off the Kurita forces.
--Toasty
"The survivors, not the victors, write the history books."
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Karagin
01/18/03 10:42 AM
68.21.149.119
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Excellent points...and very interesting ideas you have given.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Moloch
01/18/03 02:38 PM
67.224.53.132
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Yes, very good points. I bet the clans would of had a much tougher fight come 3050 when trying to conquer House Kurita and have a much smaller invasion corridor.
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Karagin
01/18/03 02:41 PM
68.21.149.60
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How so? I would think they would still hit along the same route with the same break down as far as who attacked where...could you elaporate a little more on this please...thanks!
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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NathanKell
01/18/03 04:15 PM
67.86.63.119
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ISTR a number of the DCMS defeats were due to fighting in the "old school" traditions which so totally favored the Clans.
-NathanKell, BT Space Wars
Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear.
Thomas Jefferson |
Nightward
01/18/03 08:44 PM
210.50.57.93
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Scott (Greyslayer) has long been of the school of thought that the reason Hanse Davion was killed off during the Clan Invasion was becuase between him, Theodore Kurita, Jaime Wolf, Morgan Kell, and Anastasius Focht, the Inner Sphere frces would have pounded the Clans but good. I'm not sure I agree, but things would certainloy have been more interesting...
Anyway, I'm getting a bit far afield.
If Theodore had been in control at the time the Clans invaded, I am not sure how much could have been done in that area. The Smoke Jaguars mainly faced the Pesht Distrcit Regulars, who are staffed almost entirely by nobles more concerned with honour etc than battlefield ability. Traditionally, this was not a problem because nobody ever made it far enough into the Combine for the Pesht units to have to fight, and the P[esht regulars were just showboat regiments used as reserves on "honor=able" attacks into foreign territiories (IIRC, it was a Pesht unit which supported the Genyosha in the Warrior series, but they refused to integrate with the Black Ocean...fools). IN any case, Theodore likely would not have been able to alter their tactics enough for things to have made a difference come the Clan invasion. So in my usual rambling, incoherent style, what I'm trying to say is that the Jags would have pounded the Pesht Regulars 
The other units, now...that could be interesting. The Ghost Regiments, Legions of Vega, and Ryuken all enjoyed success against the Clans because they paid attention during the fights and altered their tactics as necessary. If Theodore could have expanded the Ruken back to ten (or whatever it was) Regiments, added to the Legions of Vega, and created more Ghost regiments (which I'm sure he'd have tried to do) and bought the Genyosha up to full strength quicker instead of Takashi having scattered the lot to the four winds, he would have had a floating reserve unit that he could have commited to slow and then turn back the Jags.
The Ghost Bears would have faced Alshain Regulars who would also have been equipped and taught better. However, given the Bear's early tactics (bomb them till they burn, then shoot them from orbit) and slow-and-steady approach would probably have seen them eventually overwhelm the Combine's troops.
Of course, all this hangs on the presumption that Theodore kept things quiet in the Combine from when he took over to the time of the Clan Invasion. If he took advantage of things to try to cut off the area at which the FedCom linked, or acted against Hanse, who knows what could have happened?
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Nightward
01/18/03 08:46 PM
210.50.57.93
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And imagine what Theodore could have done to Hanse during the War of '39 if he had adequate reserve troops and access to the better units. We could well have seen the Combine once more poised over New Avalon...
Actually, come to think of it, I believe Takashi did have a stroke after the FedCom wedding event. Afterward, he walked with a cane etc.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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NathanKell
01/18/03 10:37 PM
67.86.232.111
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I also STR that Theodore simply did not have the troop strength, no matter how free a hand he had. 39 failed on a bluff.
Unless you're thinking he could do one heck of a recruiting drive before the war.
-NathanKell, BT Space Wars
Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear.
Thomas Jefferson |
Nightward
01/19/03 05:50 AM
210.50.63.89
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Well, the main problem in '39 was that Takashi wouldn't give Theodore enough troops to hold the FedCom off. Theodore did what he could via sleight-of-hand, and with the re-emergence of the old Star League designs, it was just enough to convince Hanse that he was biting off more than he could chew.
If Theodore had been able to get his hands on units like the Second Sword of Light, or heaven help the Davions, deployed the Genyosha or Otomo to the field, it would have taken a very concerted effort to shift the might of the Combine.
If Hanse had attacked with everything he had, and come in with Lyran, Gray Death, Eridani, Wolf Dragoon, Northwind Highlander, and Banzai's troops, things would have gotten very messy indeed.
And since the Capellan Confederation was reeling like a drunkard and the Free Worlds League of the time could not plan and execue a viable millitary plan if they cloned Aleksandr Kerensky, Aaron DeChevalier, and Justin Xiang Allard, there would be little that could be done to stop them.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
12/04/05 02:45 AM
24.243.178.223
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Back to the top for more...
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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WreckingCrew
01/03/06 08:14 PM
158.59.158.188
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Absolutely! With Davion fully embroiled in driving deeper into the Capellan Confederation there flank would have been vulnerable. Terra could have been cut off from Steiner and the war changes especially with Theodore holding off the Lyrans. Good luck convincing Stiener-Davion lovers of this scenario howeveer.
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Tentakel
09/02/08 09:30 PM
67.10.108.37
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it's highly doubtful that the Federated Commonwealth would have/could have moved troops away from the Liao and Marik borders to assist in the Combine war. Compare the sourcebooks 20 Year Update (showing troop deployment before the clan invasion) and Objective Raids (after the clan invasion) and you'll see that not the FedCom troops stationed near Liao/Marik were almost entirely the same - not even the clan invasion could bring them to move those border units away to assist at the front, so I doubt a war against Kurita could have either.
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Prince_of_Darkness
09/02/08 10:10 PM
205.202.120.139
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Great way to resurrect dead posts.
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Karagin
10/24/08 02:44 PM
72.178.75.99
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Nothing wrong with that. I like it when new folks or even older posters find something to add the discussions. Hell I bring enough of them back from the dead as it is...
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Dester
11/07/08 12:34 PM
216.57.96.1
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Well since the post is already dug up from the grave.... 
It is in my opinion that Kurita would have been WORSE off if they did not attack the dragoons. Yeah, yeah, I know... follow my train of thought.
1) there would have been 5 elite regiments ready for hire and if you kept with the dragoons pattern their next employer would have been the Federated Suns and with the way kurita treated them I dont' think they would put in the clause of not operating aginst their former employer.
2) even with 5 extra regiments the drive into kurita space isn't near as bad as it was because Kuritan units aren't throwing themselves away at the dragoons on misery. Instead they stablalize the boarder. True the dragoons help crush Kuritan units but over all the its not near as bad as it was in cannon.
3) (and this is key) because things aren't as bad, Theodore never comes back into favor with his father to rally and lead a counter attack. The dragoons slice ever deeper and the waves that were called off due to theo's counter continues. But the destruction is a slow grind instead of a quick slice. By the time Takashi realizes he needs Theo.. its to late to help.
4) Theo never comes into promidence, never builds the ghost regements, never brokers a deal with comstar to get mechs.
5) FRR gets born much earlier and takes valuable and scares manufacturing and mech regements with it.
6) war of 3039 goes horribly horribly wrong for Kurita as comstar does not view them worth saving so no new mechs, no ghost regements no Theo as commander of the armies. Alternantly some time before 3039, Theo starts a civil war with his father for rule of the realm, or whats left of it.
7) The draconis Combine becomes nothing more then a minor power and is quickly swept away by the clans when they show up in 3050.
The end
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Karagin
12/25/10 11:58 PM
72.178.75.99
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So anyone else have any comments thoughts or input into this one?
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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rider
02/09/11 01:26 PM
198.212.99.11
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It's been a million years since I've surfed anything BTech, but decided to come back to Sarna.net to see what people sitll talk about with the game. Even though this thead has been idle for awhile, I found it to be one of the more interesting . It is particullary near and dear to me because when I played this game in the late 80s thru ealry 90s, my own campaign hinged on a very different sort of 4th Succession War.
Feel free to skip thru the boring bio-paragraphs here, but its how I organize my thoughts.
BOTTOM LINE before you read all this junk - your premise played a pivotal role in how I played this game so many years ago...
A Free Worlds League fan since I purchased the game in the mid-80s, my campaign centered on an invasion of Hesperus II (heavily influenced by the first House book Steiner, but loved the one of the underdogs of the BTech world - Marik).
With the introduction of the House Kurita sourcebook, I started a campaign setting centered around a small mercenary group stationed there. The other House books followed and I found myself a definite proponent to the members of the Concord of Kapteyn (Marik-Kurita-Liao). I don't recall the timing exactly of the Stackpole books propelling the BTech timeline as well as the Charrette book detailing the Wolf-Kurita debacle, but I already had a series of limited wars going on in my campaign world with those items release. What propelled me to create my own 4th Succession War were the military atlas books that came out detailing the various invasions.
The military atlases seemed quickly written and from my perspective were a whitewash to quickly carry off the BTech storyline that Davion-Steiner folks were the "good guys" and could do no wrong while the "bad guys" were as inept as the 3-stooges. So during a few frenzied nights in my college dorm room sometime around '92 I wrote my own version the borrows elements of some of the premises written here.
How my 4th Succession war went...
My own character groups of course played a serious role in how I wrote the 4th Succession War, so they were key to some important counter elements that I used to divert the BTech canon version.
1) My campaign in BTech started with an invasion of Hesperus II prior to 3028, so with that beginning I developed the starting of the war with that. Basically Janos Marik is paranoid that he will be the first victum of the Davion-Steiner alliance and has little faith his "allies" will help him much so I shamelessly take the Stackpole idea of the League conducting readiness exercises to slowly shift his military preparedness to the Steiner border. Nothing as grand or flamboyant as House Davion's Operation Galahad exercises, but the Marik's ambitions are much less. In this thread I borrow from the origional Periphery sourcebook and the Taurian Concordat's pre-emptive strike to better position it at the start of the Reunification War. The Taurians developed Case Amber, I developed Operation Violet.
Operation Violet is a blitzkrieg-style invasion in late 3026 which you can say is another copy of Stackpole, but at the time I was doing several WWII papers and was heavily influenced by the German invasion of Russia (probably Stackpole's inspiration as well).
2) In my version, this limited invasion is as shamelessly successful as the canon Operation Rat. Since I was already starting my own military career, I didn't need Stackpole and the BTech canon info to teach me one of the most important tenets for a speedy and successful fight tactically, is to have 3:1 odds. I followed this formula in my writing so that my version is at least as plausible as FASA's. This invasion throws off balance the Davion-Steiner plans. Steiner was already preparing Operation Thor by shifting its forces to the Kurita border and was unprepared for a concentrated punch to the gut.
3) Next was to throw a monkey-wrench into the whole Davion-Steiner wedding thing. I had a peripehery character that I had done some adventuring with, so I had Redjack Ryan hire him and stage a raid on the Kurita world of Styx with the intent to capture none other than Melissa Steiner. I'd to delve thru going on 20 year old notes to recall how I justified this or made it plausible - I don't explore it in my 4th Succession War paper. Bottom line is that Melissa disappears while the Kell Hounds and Genyosha are fighting it out.
4) With Melissa gone, the Wedding still must go on, so Lisa Steiner (mentioned only in the Steiner family tree) is rushed into the vacuum to keep the alliance on track. I grant you this is somewhat far-fetched and probably not even necessary, but it allowed me to keep my alternate BTech history on a more parallel track to canon.
5) Operation Rat/Operation Thor are still a "go", so with the completion of the wedding reception on Terra and the words "... I give you the Capellan Confederation!". Davion launches his huge invasion of Liao. My alternate history borrows extensively from the FASA 4th Succession War atlases at this point. With subtle twists and giving the Capellans the benefit of the doubt during some battles and the Federats some tough breaks in others, the invasion is not the complete walk-over portrayed in BTech canon. Plus here to, one of my character groups play a key role in throwing a wrench into the Davion war-machine that help propel history down a different path. In my version the key is Tikinov...
6) With the fall of Tikinov in BTech canon material, the only major pocket of forces offering resistance is crushed and the largest army group on the Capellan Front is allowed freedom of maneuver to blitzkrieg its way thru the galactic south toward Sian. What if a small pesky merc group flees the invasion of Aldebaran, lands on Algol and during a raid for parts/supplies frees a bunch of Capellan POWs including the son of Liao? With this change in history another raid is carried off with the intel and private resources of this pivotal person (arguably you could say that Tormax did not have the wealth or contacts to pull off what I write, but that's why its called fiction). Styk is raided and more POWs are freed. This leads to the assemblage of a counter-invasion force that blunts the Davion sword, but to do it they will need more than POWs, a small merc group, re-captured Capellan and salvaged Davion 'Mech equipment. Enter the Northwind Highlanders.
7) What if Tormax got to the Highlanders first with an offer they've desired for the bulk of their service to House Liao - a chance to retake Northwind. My version supposes that Tormax has the money and political savy to convince the leaders of the Northwind Highlanders that the Confederation if it survives will no longer be as it once was and that with his rise to power they will be more than just a piece of the Capellan military. He also offer them the opportunity here and now, not at some future nebulous date. Assist him in blunting the invasion of Tikinov with a portion of the Highlanders while the rest move straightway to re-taking their ancestral homeworld which must be underdefended in light of the Davion invasion. What follows in my alternate history is a battle modeled after that of Stalingrad, where Tikinov becomes the meat-grinder that chews up both opponents, but is key to keeping the Capellans from collapsing.
8) I grant you that in this scenario the Confederation is a weak Soviet Union without vast territory/resources to play for time while the Federats are also the oppisite of their character. They are not an over-extended Germany with limited manpower, so I throw into the mix my WWII parallelism what House Liao needs - a second front.
To make the Kurita invasion possible I need what this whole forum topic proposes - what if Kurita hadn't fought its private war with the Dragoons? I'm going off of vague memory here to remember my justification and plausibility for how this happens, but bear with me. In Wolves on the Border I believe there is a turning point that Takashi, Tetsuhara, and Wolf come to in the book where if fate had nudged the Coordinator a different way the Dragoon/Kurita war could have been avoided. I beleive it was a meeting on Luthien where some heart-to-heart is held between the 3 at the end of which Kurita is convinced in his arrogance that he can manipulate the Dragoons with the "company-store" plan into becoming indebted and staying in the Combine while Wolf walks away disapointed, but at least his contract will be up and he can get out of Dodge. Tetsuhara is caught in the middle to be torn in two by his lord and his friend. I push this meeting in a different direction with some help from my Kurita character group that bring the Coordinator evidence of Warlord Samsonov's treasonous interpretation of the Coordinator's intent early and in a surprising act of honor laced humility the Coordinator conconts a scheme that allows the Dragoons and Combine to conduct one last act together as fellow warriors - invade the Federated Suns.
9) I use the BTech canon that allows the Federated Suns to attack the Capellan Confederation without worrying about a Combine attack. The Dragoon/Kurita war was just as pivotal to keeping Kurita a wobbling defender rather than active aggressor in the war as Steiner's Operation Thor. Using the whole Dragoon/Kurita infighting as a clever ruse, the Combine plans their "Pearl Harbor" for the Federated Suns and launches an attack the size and ambition of which had not been seen since the 1st Succession War.
10) This second front to the Federated Suns keeps the Confederation from utterly collapsing. I could only take my creative writing so far to support the belief that House Liao could hold out to House Davion. This Draconis Front drains resources from the Capellan allowing for the plausible defense of other worlds. I make Hanse Davion continue to grasp for the whole pie that is the Confederation which leads to him being overextended, setting up the sucees for some minor counter-attacks that keep the Capellans going.
My thread on this has gone way to long. I'm sure you've skipped over my long boring blah, blah, blah... Suffice to say I try to keep my BTech universe in some ways similar to canon, but with some alternate endings that leave the Marik-Kurita-Liao team in a much better way than the actual history. If can figure it out I'll put a copy of my whole 4th Succession War thing on this website where everybody can dump on it. Its about 80 pages written in a Succession Wars Atlas format, no maps.
For what its worth thanks for sparking my interest to remember this stuff again...
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