Requiem
04/08/18 03:20 AM
58.175.193.140
|
Reasoning –
House Davion would not attack House Kurita in the war of 3039-40 rather the target would be House Liao, due to political / strategic issues …
• The no. of worlds to be captured Liao Vs. Kurita and the consideration that attacking Liao is a risk whereas Kurita is a gamble;
• Using the 20yr update book – the Capellan Confederation has only 26 regiments including 7 mercenary regiments;
• Most border worlds are protected by a single Battalion of ‘Mechs and Militia only;
• The main reasons however – if Hanse Davion is able to defeat another House – an act that no one else has ever achieved – it would go a long way to appointing him the new 1st Lord of a New Star League also it is simple Machiavellian theory – if you are on the way out – stab them in the back as quickly as possible. ;
• …. And keeping his wedding day promise to his wife – the Capellan Confederation;
• Attacking House Liao rather than Kurita the economic impact to both Davion and Steiner would be minimised / long term – the integration of the Capellan economy y would be a boon to both the Steiner / Davion realms; and
• NT: Integration of HPG Fax Machines into the military / specific worlds - Davion has begun mass produced his HPG Fax machines in the event of any act on the part of Comstar.
Major Issues -
Would Prince Hanse Davion initiate a provocation to renew Operation Rat with House Liao? Or wold it come without cause or provocation?
With the Capellan ‘Mech strength at 26 Regiments (7 of which are mercenaries) this would allow Hanse Davion the greatest gain for the smallest cost. Though the primary reason was that he was in a position to do that which no one has ever done before … the destruction of a rival House, thus promoting him above that of his peers .
With a major thrust upon all Capellan worlds containing ‘Mech forces – in particular Warrior Houses whilst bypassing worlds held by mercenary forces. Prince Hanse Davion and Archon Melissa Steiner-Davion however decided upon a containment posture upon both the Draconis Combine and Free World’s League.
The Free Worlds League issued a secret declaration of neutrality-whilst simultaneously moving their elite forces to the Capellan border.
The Draconis Combine however decided to attack, when they were not attacked by either the AFFS or LCAF forces. Kanrei Theodore Kurita unleashed his new DCMS Ghost Regiments that included many “unknown/Star League” ‘Mechs to the Federated Suns before their appearance. However with the introduction of Star League weapon systems the AFFS and the LCAF contained the DCMS thrusts upon Northwind, Towne, Xhosa III, New Ivaarsen and Kesai IV. With the revelation of AFFS/LCAF forces possessing new weapon systems they counterattacked and stymied the DCMS advance persuading the then Deputy of Military Affairs Theodore Kurita to halt his invasion and request information from their Comstar Representative – they received new ‘Mechs minus the advanced weapon systems – did Comstar provide the new Federated Commonwealth with advanced weapon systems? (refer below)
Prince Hanse Davion, with the appearance of Star League ‘Mechs within the DCMS, the disruptiveness of a communication Interdiction which resulted in the Federated Suns accepting Comstar ‘Mechs and soldiers upon his worlds to guard their HPG stations even the unsolved mystery of the attack upon NAIS at the end of the Fourth Succession War, he realised that ComStar was no longer a neutral party in the Inner Sphere politics but a powerful adversary.
To counter the threat the Prince ordered two operations …. Unleashing his agents from MIIO against ComStar ROM agents , with Archon Melissa Steiner-Davion issuing similar orders to her LIC agents.
His second action was to expose ComStars duplicity, by deceiving the remaining great houses into believing ComStar was rearming certain great houses at the expense of others, by pretending old Star League ‘Mechs (that were discovered within a Prince Richard Davion supply bunker – and subsequently hidden within a NAIS facility) were provided by Comstar – this was achieved by ordering these ‘Mechs painted ComStar White, complete with insignia markings for the Comstar Units positioned near the Taurian Concordat and then Camouflaged colours covered over the ComStar markings, but not so thickly that the ComStar insignia did not show, through he then had them displayed at a press gala, and by using MIIO and LIC agents to spread the word that ComStar itself had provided Davion, Steiner and Kurita with advanced weapons (Star League Era) and weapon schematics thus infuriating Marik, Liao and Kurita – where their ComStar Precentors are called in before their respective leaders to explain this situation.
The War itself
Wave 1, Objectives - The destruction of the Capellan Confederation’s ‘Mech Regiments (and by-passing their Mercenaries) – capturing territory.
Secondary objective – capture as many Capellan Jumpships as possible (restrict Capellan forces movements – interplanetary).
Note:- with the start of the first wave Price Hanse Davion transmitted a communication to all mercenary commands – Informing them to not get involved – an amnesty for any mercenary unit that remains upon their contact world / their contract will be transferred to the Federated Commonwealth , however, if you commit to battle with the Federated Commonwealth we will respond .. exterminating the mercenary unit.
Note:- at the same time an offer is made to the Duchy of Andurien - Magistracy of Canopus alliance (assume they still exist) – to open a second front – any worlds they capture they can keep.
Note:- Romano Liao’s message to all mercenary units – fulfil your contracts … defend the Capellan Confederation … death to Davion / Steiner.
Capella Wave 1 - March 3039
Target World Defending Forces Invading Forces
Kurragin Stapelton's Grenadiers (2nd Btln) 15th Arcturian Guards
Cordiagr Stapelton's Grenadiers (1st Btln) 2nd Robinson Rangers
Capella Blanfords Grenadiers; House Matsukai (2 Btlns) 5th Syrtis Fusiliers RCT; 6th Syrtis Fusiliers RCT; and Grimm Detrmination
No Return House Hiritsu (1st Btln) Eridani Light House (1st Rgmt)
Randor House Hiritsu (2nd Btln) Eridani Light House (2nd Rgmt)
Kashilla Stapelton's Grenadiers (3rd Btln) 12th Vegan Rangers (1st & 2nd Rgmt)
Exedor House Ijori (1st Btln) 12th Vegan Rangers (3rd & 4th Rgmt)
St. Ives Wave 1
Target World Defending Forces Invading Forces
Minnacora Kingston's Legionnaires 20th Avalon Hussars; 36th Lyran Guards RCT
(M) New Sagon 15th Dracon (4th Btln) 2nd Davion Guards RCT
(M) Capricorn III 15th Dracon (3rd Btln) 3rd Crucis Lancers RCT
(M) Relevow 15th Dracon (1st Btln) 2nd Ceti Hussars RCT
(M) Gui-Fu 15th Dracon (2nd Btln) St. Ives Cheveau Lancers
Overton Kamakura's Hussars (2 Btlns) 2nd St. Ive Lancers
(M) Harloc McCarron's Armored Cavalry (1st Btln) 1st St. Ives lancers; Davion Light Guards RCT
(M) Hustoing McCarron's Armored Cavalry (2nd Btln) Davion Heavy Guards RCT
Sindar PDZ Wave 1
Target World Defending Forces Invading Forces
Purvo 2nd Confederation Reseve Cavalry 3rd Ceti Hussars RCT
(M) Homestead Marshigoma's Legionnaires (1 Btln) 4th Donegal Guards RCT
Grand Base House Kamata (2 Btlns); House Fujita (1st Btln) 1st Federated Suns Armored Cavalry; Davion Assault Guards RCT
Holloway House Fujita (2nd Btln) 15th Deneb Light Cavalry
(M) Xieng Khouang Ambermarles Highlanders amnesty
Mitchel House Lu Sann (1st Btln) 3rd Illician Lancers
Jacson House Lu Sann (2nd Btln) 2nd Illician Lancers
Yuris 5th Confederation Reserve Cavalry (1st Btln) 1st Capellan Dragoons
(M) Zanzibar Bullard's Armored Cavalry (1 Btln) amnesty
Rollis Sung's Cuirassiers Hansen's Roughriders
Larsha 5th Confederation Reserve Cavalry (2nd Btln) --
Magistracy of Canopus - 1st Strike - Wave 2 - May / June 3039
Target World Defending Forces Invading Forces
(M) Principia Little Richards Panzer Brigade (3rd Btln) amnesty
(M) Sax Little Richards Panzer Brigade (1st Btln) amnesty
(M) Andermax Little Richards Panzer Brigade (2nd Btln) amnesty
(M) New Reland St. Cyr's Armoured Grenadiers (1 Btln) --
Repulse Kincade's Rangers (1st Btln) Canopian Fusiliers
Renown Kincade's Rangers (2nd Btln) Canopian Highlanders
Drozon House Daidachi (2 Btlns) Magistacy Royal Guards; Ramilie's Raiders
Duchy of Andurien - 1st Strike - Wave 2
Target World Defending Forces Invading Forces
Barras Ishara's Grenadiers (2nd Btln ) 2nd Legionnaires
(M) Niomede Tooth of Ymir (1st Btln) amnesty
Buenos Ares Ishara's Grenadiers (1st Btln) 3rd Legionnaires
(M) Shiba Tooth of Ymir (2nd Btln) amnesty
(M) Sigma Mare Tooth of Ymir (1st Btln) amnesty
(M) Palladoine Lockhardt's Ironsides (3rd Btln) --
Drozan House Daidochi (2 Btlns) Always Faithful
Free World's League Front - 1st Strike - Wave 2
Target World Defending Forces Invading Forces
(M) Frondas Olson's Rangers (2nd Btln) amnesty
(M) Fronde Olson's Rangers (3rd Btln) amnesty
(M) Altoma Olson's Rangers (1st Btln) amnesty
(M) Westerhand Lockhard's Ironsides (2nd Btln) 2nd Hussars
(M) Ito Lockhard's Ironsides (1st Btln) 1st Hussars
(M) Palladaine Lockhard's Ironsides (3rd Btln) 4th Fusiliers
Pella II House Ijori (2nd Btln) 21st Centari Lancers; Blackhearts.
Within the first three months the majority of the Capellan Armed Forces was reeling from the ‘shear’ size and ferocity of the Federated Commonwealth assault, then followed quickly with the Magistracy of Canopus, Duchy of Andurien and the Free Worlds League brought the remaining Capellan forces to their knees.
Liao’s only course of action at this point was to consolidate their remaining forces on two worlds Grand Base and Sian.
Thus by August 3039, the new Federated Commonwealth had a right to be proud. F-C troops had achieved most of their objectives, destroying the majority of the remaining Capellan armed Forces.
Realising the Capellan Confederation were on their knees, and at the urging of Prince Hanse Davion the Magistracy of Canopus, Duchy of Anduren and the Free World’s League stabbed the Cappellan Forces a mortal blow in the back.
On the Sian front the F-C forces blockaded the surrounding Sian systems – consolidating their gains and preparing for the inevitable.
On Grand Base the Assault Guards and the Armoured Cavalry were relieved by both the 4th Donegal Guards and the 15th Deneb Light Guards.
Upon the remaining fronts both sides moved their forces as quickly as possible to gain territory and consolidate the new border.
By early November 3039 the final battle began with Romano Liao refusing to capitulate.
Target World Defending Forces Invading Forces
Sian Red Lancers Davion Assault Guards RCT
House Immara (2 Btlns) 1st Federated Suns Armoured Cavalry
4th Tau Ceti Rangers (1 Btln) Davion Heavy Guards RCT
Misc. (1 Rgmt) Davion Light Guards RCT
Regular forces (20 Rgmts) 2nd Davion Guards RCT
Aerospace (15 squadrons) 20th Avalon Hussars
36th Lyran Guards RCT
1st St. Ives Lancers
1st Kathil Uhlans
A ferocious war in which 10% of the civilian population was killed (note: Chemical warfare by reactionary Capellan Units during the battles would be used) over the four month war which ended with the fall of the palace and the identification of both Romano Liao’s and Tsen Shang’s bodies.
(Note: during the four month elements within the 1st St. Ives Lancers were able to “collect” the two children of the Chancellor of the Capellan Confederation Romano Liao, (without her consent), that being Sun-Tzu Liao and Kali Liao and return them to their aunt Candice Liao on St. Ives (Completed at the direction of Tsen Shang).)
On the 21st February 3040 the Capellan Confederation ceased to exist, with the fall of the remaining Liao Government, and the absorption of their remaining territory into the Federated Commonwealth Magistracy of Canopus, Duchy of Andurien and the Free Worlds League .
With the Fall of the Capellan Confederation the Draconis Combine ceased their offensive action along their border.
The new Free Worlds League March was thereafter established, for the lower half, with their new Liege Lord Duchess Nelitha Green-Davion. Her first action was to rebuild their economy (especially military contractors), for the lower half.
The upper half had been previously given to Duchess Margaret Aten as their new Liege Lord (Margrave).
The Federated Commonwealth were also able to establish multiple new BattleMech Regiments (initially from the former Capellan Military) and from the increased output of their Battlemech factories.
The New Capital of the Federated Commonwealth
3042 – With the fall of the Capellan Confederation the Federated Commonwealth will attempt to elevate their state above that of their pears.
To this end The Federated Commonwealth announces the establishment of a new capital world (to bind together both the houses & their respective governments). Also its proximity to Terra is not lost upon the other Houses.
The New Capital of the Federated Commonwealth was announced to be Rigil Kentarus and was subsequently renamed as Asgardia / Camlann (?) and its capital city of the same name.
Nt: The former Rigil Kentarus received several SLDF bases to bolster Terran defense prior to the Amaris Coup. These bases included several Castles Brian and SDS systems on both the planet and the moon, Riken Minor. These Bases are to be re-established during the construction of the Capital City.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
|
Requiem
04/08/18 03:21 AM
58.175.193.140
|
Requiem
Adelaide, Australia
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
|
Requiem
05/05/18 06:47 PM
58.175.193.140
|
As far as I can understand the Capellan Confederation survived only because the writers could not contemplate its complete and utter destruction (As no source book identified who had become the new Duke / Margrave f this area – thus its resurrection was always considered to be a long term objective thus there was no point in providing this information).
In the real word however Hanse Davion would have seen to its removal from the board - the integration of its people and its economy into the new Federated Commonwealth.
This is Davion’s only logical course of action at this time.
Thus by 3050 the AFFC would have an additional 25 to 30 new RCTs and the addition of its former Jump-ships / Drop-ships to transport them to the Clan Front – making their “charge” through the inner sphere even more difficult.
Plus the Federated Commonwealth’s economy would be on a high bull market - with high spending on new military equipment and research and development projects.
Any resurgence of the former Capellan Confederation would thus have to come from dissidents either those disenfranchised by the fall of the Capellan Confederation or from the St Ives ruling family itself – Sun Tzu attempts to reclaim his realm?.
Though it is more plausible at this stage to believe that MIIO / LOKI agents on St Ives would have strict instructions regarding Sun Tzu or his sister Kali, in the event he/she steps out of line … remove him/her permanently.
Requiem
Adelaide, Australia.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
|
csadn
05/07/18 01:29 AM
50.53.22.4
|
The reality is: FASA realized only too late it had "written itself into a corner" with 4SW -- not only was this going to end with the CC wiped from the map, but it was going to result in nine kinds of heart attacks from the Political-Correctness Crowd, for reasons which should be appallingly obvious. Hence all the nonsense with the War of 3039, and onwards (you think for one moment Davion wouldn't have blown "Thomas Marik"'s identity in order to put a stop to Guerrero?). By any sane, well-written standard: CC should have been obliterated in 3030, with FWL following shortly thereafter, and finally DC right about the time the Clans show up (and wouldn't *that* be embarrassing -- the Clans show up to reclaim the IS, just in time for Hanse Davion to tell them "Guess who's the new First Lord of a reborn Star League?").
CF
Oregon: The "Outworlds Alliance" of the United States of America
|
ghostrider
05/07/18 02:35 PM
66.74.61.223
|
The writers could have used the old bs line of an assassination or even outright revolt of several areas at once to break up the FC. They pretty much did so with the civil war. Something as simple as Katrina Steiner falling to an assassin would have resulted in that. More then a few in the family would have broken the alliance, as well as some in the Suns area.
I do agree the CC should have died in the 4th war, but to be honest, there was so much more that could have been done with it. Even just having Candice Liao run the CC and have her start having issues with Michael Hasek-Davion, instead of having him get killed, could well have set off the excuse for the CC to live, possibly even allying with them to stop the FC.
Yes, the issue of the people revolting against that would be an issue, but having it done, may actually have spurred the other houses to take advantage of the fighting. The DC actually figuring out how to stop the LC, and hit the FS. The FWL would have gained by doing alot more. The area by Terra would have been prime targets, even if it was just to destroy the units there.
Then again, they could have actually had Katrina playing a game with Hanse, and used the alliance to push back her borders with the DC/FWL, then dump the FS. Power corrupts sort of thing.
And that isn't going down the assassination of Hanse.
But the 3039 war shows how little the developers kept with the low numbers of mechs being produced line.
|
Requiem
05/07/18 07:58 PM
58.175.193.140
|
I agree the writers were lacking in their plot development throughout the entire Inner Sphere history.
Anything is possible – my grievance, however, revolves around the believability that a certain action would occur, and if you make a factual statement, such as the quantity of ‘Mech production in a given realm, then stick to it (own it) and don’t just change it in the future because it has become difficult for your writers when making plot twists (for example McCarron’s Armoured Cavalry – their ability to re-build completely in a post 4th Succession War time – no I don’t think so).
Requiem,
Adelaide Australia
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
|
ghostrider
05/08/18 12:34 AM
66.74.61.223
|
The fact they had stated in several books, the mech production in the IS barely could keep up with all the losses from raids and such, yet 8 full regiments were made for the 4th war. Now, with the update, which is 9 to 10 years after the 4th war, and they were able to pull enough units to add in not only fixing the damage done in the 4th war, but creating new ones yet again?
But then this is the same team that brought you the stealth skill Morgan Kell used to save the forces on Mallory's World when Ian Davion died, and was learned by Yuringa (Spelling?) Kurita learned and fought Morgan with it. Then Morgan was able to use it against the clans, love to have magic pop up and alter reality.
Though one of the better blunders with the novels was the exploding engines. More then a few pilots were to overheat their non ammo mech to blow up the enemy in a death lock.
But back to the main topic.
The bs of having all invasion officers from the Lyrans meet on one world every day or even week to discuss tactics on worlds that would require multiple jumpships ready for a pony express was crap. The strike killing most of them, driving the Lyrans back was mythical, then when the DC started the counter invasion, Loki disabled his jumpship fleet for it?
(More smoke. People can see the mirrors in our bs.)
The FWL should have actually become the target as the CC would have been destroyed, yet again, had made up their losses without spending alot of money with alot of their production in FC hands. Even building warships.
|
wolf_lord_30
05/08/18 01:55 AM
74.214.54.153
|
I disagree that the Capellan Confederation would have been wiped out. And I disagree that the writers wrote themselves into a corner.
1) periphery nations first point. They're still around and the major houses can't really get rid of him. Piranha principle. They send resources after them, others come for them in return.
2) CC is bigger than periphery nations, more resources, bigger military.
3) FC goes after CC, the DC would step in and take advantage of the weekend front, the Davion side would take a big hit.
4) FWL, even being enemies with CC, would not sit idly by while their neighbor and smaller nation would be under attack. They would know they would be next. They would concentrate effort on the Lyran side and stall their effort in helping the newly formed alliance.
So if the FC concentrates too much effort in one nation, the others could and would take advantage of it.
|
Requiem
05/08/18 03:51 AM
58.175.193.140
|
Periphery states are a non-issue for three reasons:- First, the lack of any major weapon manufactories, second the size and combat worthiness of their military and three their strategic positioning in comparison to that of the great houses. In the event either of these factors would change you can be sure one of the great houses would invade. By allowing them (Canopus) to participate in the War they would jump at the chance to get some revenge for past humiliations, at the hands of the Capellans, and the chance of expanding their nation.
The Capellan Confederation is down to only 26 'Mech Regiments (7 of which are mercenary) and the majority of their worlds have only a single battalion of ‘Mechs on them – they are wide open for invasion.
The Federated Commonwealth has 260 plus ‘Mech Regiments – they only need to divert 30 to 40 Regiments to the Capellan Campaign and the remainder can easily defend against a Draconis Combine assault (even with their new ghost ‘mech regiments) as they have only just under 100 'Mech Regiments.
I agree the Free Worlds League would not sit idly by …. They would join in in the feast that is the Capellan Confederation to come, whist at the same time preserving their main border with the Federated Commonwealth by not getting involved. At this stage an alliance with a failed state is a non-issue – Machiavellian theory states that you do not prop up someone on the way out – you stab them I the back as quickly as possible. Thus the aim is to grab as many strategic worlds (location and industries on these planets) as possible as well as any military units fleeing the war to bolster your own military.
Though as stated before if Hanse Davion could destroy a rival great house he would and in this case there is nothing that could stop him – not the remaining other Great Houses nor Comstar (unless they gave the Capellans their ComGuards and this would violate their neutrality with all the Great Houses).
Have a read of the 20 Year Update book No 1639 and you will see how truly vulnerable the Capellans are.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
|
wolf_lord_30
05/08/18 08:42 AM
74.214.54.153
|
You misunderstood my point with the periphery states. They are weak in comparison to the great houses, and yet they are still around. The reasoning behind this falls under the piranha principle. If the great house devotes resources to rid the universe of a periphery state, they leave themselves vulnerable to attack by all others.
The Capellans are larger than the periphery states, and more dangerous. So the amount of resources necessary to truly invade and conquer would leave that nation vulnerable to attack by everyone else.
And no, they wouldn't all gang up on the Capellans.
Here's what could just as easily happen in the BT universe, in my opinion, before any flavor of plots and schemes:
Davion pushes into Liao, gets stalled unless using overwhelming numbers, which takes a lot of time and money to send that many regiments. Kurita takes the opportunity to strike and take worlds from Davion. Marik realizes that the Capellans are being hit hard and understands the implications that they are a barrier between them and Davion and hits at Steiner, embroiling them and not allowing one half of the Federated Commonwealth to participate. The Taurian Concordant doesn't have any love for Davion and feels that they are threatening their way of life with their invasion, accusing them of warmongering and such and sends out their own units to attack Davion. Now, Davion is in a war on 3 fronts, and not doing so great, even if they are taking a few worlds from the Capellans, they realize they are being drained fast and shore up their front against Kurita and the Taurians, only leaving the Capellan front lightly defended because they don't see retaliation. The Capellans may or may not counter attack.
|
ghostrider
05/08/18 05:52 PM
66.74.61.223
|
The Concordat actually has three mech production facilities atleast in their area. They are all located in the heart of the Concordat, which is the 8 systems in the dust cloud that technically protects them. Unless they changed that fact from the older story line and rules.
The Magistry had one if I remember right, but they were lights with the Shadow Hawk being the heaviest produced by them.
Now as for the periphery states being weak. Compared to most of the houses, that is true to a point. They survive because taking them out means garrisons on every planet you take, as they would keep moving to avoid being pinned down. And it is true the other houses would start testing the borders if they found out you were moving the border defenses back.
The war to finish off the CC would not be the massive invasion like the 4th war. It would probably be more like the plans to take Sarna. Waves of units, with those rotating out, would go back to their posts on the borders, if they were taken from there. I suspect the forces that tend to be deeper in the FS territory, would be brought up. Even that, a small strike on the DC borders would lock down most of that, as they would be expecting a follow up.
That is if the history stayed the same since the original house books came out.
Now the one thing that seems to be missing from the points is the dropship/jumpship issue with the CC. Moving the units around would be a problem without them. So even trying to reinforce one world may not be possible.
It would be likely, Hanse would use militia units to invade with, making the other houses have to figure out which worlds they came from, and try to hit them, hoping they did not move other militia around.
|
Requiem
05/08/18 08:26 PM
58.175.193.140
|
Consider the overwhelming military capability of the Federated Commonwealth, just look at the 4th Succession War, the new Federated Commonwealth has adequate military resources to take on the other Great Houses (Marik, Liao and Kurita) and win.
Please re-read the above Defending Units – as this came straight out of the 20 Year Update Book #1639
“Mech Strength
Federated Commonwealth 268 Regiments, 2 Battalions
Draconis Combine 99 Regiments (including Ghost Regiments)
Free Rasalhague Republic 16 Regiments, 2 Battalions
Free Worlds League 72 Regiments, 2 Battalions
Capellan Confederation 30 Regiments (7 of which are mercenary and I do not include 4 Regiments of McCarron’s Armored Cavalry as they were destroyed during the 4th Succession War and their ability to rebuild after the war is laughable) thus I put them down to 26 Regiments.
ComStar 50 Regiments
Taurian 14 Regiments
Magistracy 12 Regiments, 1 Battalion.
Davion's forces would only require 30 to 40 regiments (out of the 268 regiments) to completely overwhelm the remaining Capellan forces – they only have one battalion to a world as their garrison force – (look at my invasion notes above regarding the defending units and heir size again) sorry but I do not see how they could get bogged down at all – militarily we are looking at a blitzkrieg here not a siege – except when you finally get around to attack Sian.
In all probability the Kuritans will attack however the Federated Commonwealth has sufficient forces that only a couple of worlds may change hands during the War (look at previous wars outcomes).
Yes the Taurians have no love for Davion – so why would they poke the bear and make themselves a target? – their entire strategy has revolved around defence in depth not as an active assault force – they did nothing during the 4th Succession War so why Now?
As for the Canopians – they have no love for the Capellans and if they could get some payback and expand their realm at the same time you can be quite sure they wold take it.
As for using militia forces – I do not think so as you must remember they have Warrior House Units and some of them are elite units – thus they will require elite units to kill them off.
As for the Marik Border – ¾ of it is already against the Federated Commonwealth so why would you engage in a war to prevent the destruction of a rival house – war is a risky proposition at best – it would be more prudent to prepare for the next war to come and this requires factories / raw materials etc. and if they are within the Capellan State, and along your mutual border, why would you just give them to the Davions to bolster their military – it would be more prudent that you would want to take them for your own – therefore the invasion of the Capellan Confederation is clear for all to see that once the Federated Commonwealth invade, on mass, for a second time they will fall – it is not a question of if it is, it is just a question of when.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
|
ghostrider
05/09/18 12:34 AM
66.74.61.223
|
The Mariks, according to the lore, would rather have the weak CC on their border, giving them some warning as to an invasion from that direction, instead of having the Davion powerhouse.
And the piranha effect requires as many people against your enemy to work. Once you lose one, then that is one less the enemy has to deal with. The civil unrest is not the same as combat units forcing more of the border to be garrisoned.
I understand the overwhelming forces the FC has, but alot of those were along the DC/FWL borders, as well as periphery, and even guarding their own worlds against those within their own borders.
Hesperus, being in the Skye March, was looking for a way to get out of the FC. They could very well have tried at this point and really screwed things up. The fact that the did later on as well as the Davion's Third guards did in the events that would happen.
So alot of their own units were not trustworthy, nor could they be moved, even if loyal, as they guarded their own units in alot of places.
The FWL wasn't the only ones having issues with disobedient civillians. and Katherine was supporting it. It really came out once the FC civil war hit, but she had to be building her base when her mother was alive. Even the Capellan March forces were not as loyal as it sounds in the 20 year update. The ease of move 20 to 30 regiments to deal with them wasn't as easy as it looks to be.
And this is the time period of Walterly running Comstar. She would very well hit Davion forces and make it look like he struck their facilities first, by showing the fake footage, then shutting down all coms in the FC. Not just the FS portion of it.
|
Requiem
05/09/18 06:08 AM
58.175.193.140
|
In 3039 …..
First, the Free Worlds League no longer has a complete border with the Federated Suns only half of it is covered by the Capellan Confederation – thus there is no warning anymore, thus the remaining Capellan state cannot be used as a shield anymore – it’s not a weak border it’s porous.
Second, as for your piranha effect - it is not applicable / does not work here – it can only work when you have many attacking the one – and in this case who would stand up for the Capellan Confederation if it is attacked by the Federated Commonwealth – the answer is only the Draconis Combine …. Though in reality as DCMS forces cannot reach Capellan space thus they are effectively on their own.
Also there would be no change at all along the border, with regards to military units, as civil unrest will be stopped by the local law enforcement units and not ‘Mech units (hammer to crack an egg).
Third, as for Hesperus …. They have always been loyal to House Steiner …. It is the Isle of Skye that has been agitating for its independence (and invading and trying to take Hesperus by force if it can (refer Grey Death Legion’s end)). At this time they would not ever attempt to leave. Kathrine (Melissa’s Mother) is too beloved by her people for anyone to even contemplate this during this time period of 3039.
(How can you compare what was happening in 3039 to that of 3060 onwards?)
Fourth, at this stage there were no desertions of regular house units in either Steiner or Davion space – so Military loyalty is a non-issue circa 3039.
Also we are talking about Capellan March troops .... attacking and destroying the Capellan Confederation - they would be overjoyed with this .... there would be a massive line at all recruiting stations to join in on the war not the other way around.
Fifth, the ease of moving troops around – what I am suggesting here is not as complicated as that of the 4th Succession War – so this is also a non-issue.
Sixth, how can Waterly use the same trick again that it used during the 4th Succession War? She cant.
Also you must remember Hanse Davion’s little Black HPG Fax Machine Boxes – to ensure an interdiction can never again affect his military every Regiment and every World would have one ( it’s just a question of time and resources). Also she cannot use her ComGuards as they are now out in the open for everyone to see – she uses them and every House will Nationalise their HPG stations in their realm as ComStar has gone from an independent power to an active participant in the game to become First Lord and no House would tolerate this interference.
Requiem
Adelaide, Australia
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
Edited by Requiem (05/09/18 06:16 AM)
|
ghostrider
05/09/18 01:46 PM
66.74.61.223
|
The FWL never had a complete border with the FS portion of the FC. The CC was the buffer zone until the 4th war.
It does appear that the older lore for the innersphere is lacking in some of the response. The Skye portion of the LC almost ceeded from the LC in the 4th war. Unless that has been changed in the newer lore. And Hesperus is part of the Skye portion.
Now the only answer to the CC invasion is the DC? I can understand that if you remove any and all raids, pirates and such on all borders. Which would never happen.
What book even suggested all military units were loyal to the leaders of the FC? In the 20 year update, they list more then a few as questionable to the FC rulers. Even with Melissa running the LC part of it. Hell, some in the Capellan march were no loyal to the Davions.
Using future lore to argue some of the points, is the only way to show you it was done. Not a non issue like you seem to think it would be. Comstar did indeed attack the IS and the Clans holdings in the IS. Only this is, time. So ignoring the fact she would have done so, seems to be ignoring some of the facts.
And at this point, Hanse dies of the heart attack, as you pointed out. Do you think the factions that were looking for power in the FC just would have ignored this?
Granted there is the one easy way out of the whole argument. This is your alternative lore, and that makes it what ever you want it to be.
From the looks of it, you seem to want some input or support for it. Otherwise, posting it seems off.
|
Requiem
05/09/18 09:15 PM
58.175.193.140
|
Remember the timeline is 3039 and before ….
Skye Portion of the LC almost succeeded from the LC in the 4th Succession War.
Refer Aldo Lestrade IV and his free Skye Movement - he was killed in 3029 by his illegitimate son, Clovis Holstein This did not end the Free Skye movement, but it effectively slowed it down for several years. (refer to Sarna.net Wiki Pages) So no it did not almost succeed from the Lyran Commonwealth.
Hesperus II
Greydon Brewer, Duke of Hesperus II and the owner of Defiance Industries - Refer pg 136 House Steiner – The Lyran Commonwealth Book #1621 – he was NOT part of the Skye Separatist movement he enjoyed a good relationship with Katrina Steiner.
Thus your assertions based upon historical fact about Syke and Hesperus II is completely wrong.
As for raids and pirates – this is normal operating procedures throughout this entire age – so how can this stop a major invasion – did it stop the 4th Succession War? – I do not think so – so this point is completely irrelevant.
As for questionable units – refer pages 21 and 22 – of the 20 year update book (#1639) – Regarding those units within the Capellan March – Total ‘Mech Strength 30 Regiments, 1 Battalion – Those questionable were New Syrtis CMM, Hansen’s Roughriders (a Merc unit), 1st Capellan Dragoons and the 11th Donegal Guards – so your point is what?.
Then look at the units I chose for the invasion can you see any of these units are questionable when asked to destroy the Capellan Confederation once and for all. The answer you are looking for is No.
Can you see any unit within the either the Lyran Commonwealth or the Federated Suns who would shed a tear at the destruction of the Capellan Confederation. More likely tankards would be raised to its destruction and every unit would be wishing they were part of that great endeavour.
As for ComStar attacking the Clans – the Clans were an external threat post 3050 not an internal threat 3039 – we are discussing 3039 not 3050 onwards - and attacking a Great House of the inner Sphere – get real, can you ever see them attacking one of the Great Houses at the defence of another Great House (think of the political backlash if they attempted this before you make the remark they would defend the Capellan Confederation).
FACT:- Hanse Davion Died 17 June 3052 – so very much alive in 3039. So Factions looking for an advantage – what advantage????? Also look at his personality archetype – he is an a-typical House Lord in some respects in that he desires to be the First Lord of The New Star League, so the question must be asked as to why would he not remove the Capellan Confederation from the board (thus gaining their economy and ‘Mech production facilities etc. – a feat that no one has ever been able to do so far) if given the chance? The answer can only be yes he would remove them from the board.
As for me arguing for the sake of it – get real – “logic” dictates the destruction of the Capellan Confederation during the 3039 War – the only thing that stopped it was the writers fears – regarding what to do next and that they had to appear to be PC, and killing off the Capellans would "upset" all the PC’s out there so they were allowing them to live which by all logic completely is wrong.
Remember we are discussing a feudal society (look at your medieval history war of the roses / the 100 year war etc.) so killing of an enemy country is completely within the norm.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
Edited by Requiem (05/09/18 09:23 PM)
|
ghostrider
05/09/18 10:42 PM
66.74.61.223
|
Actually, pirate raids was part of why Hanse called an end to the war. Not a big part, but with comms down, the raiders enjoyed some extra time on their romps.
Still not seeing the point that even though they have that many regiments, they that was for BOTH sides of the FC. They had that huge border to protect, and even with them all, they still could not stop the raids going on.
The idea that everyone was in love with the FC that lived there shows a misunderstanding of the politics in the IS. It was not as bad as the FWL, but even those with less tolerance for not following the leaders, like the DC with rassehauge, did not stop the rebellions on multiple worlds, forcing garrisons to stay put. Otherwise, the fourth war would have happened alot sooner. Davion would have done it without the Steiners backing them. It would have been smaller in scope, but would still happen.
There is one unit with 4 regiments that would have been saddened by the end of the CC. The Northwind Highlanders for a start. If not for the threat to their civillians on Northwind, they would still be mercenaries for the CC. I am sure there are others, though I don't know what mercs may have formed from the left overs.. and while I am thinking of it, the entire St. Ives home forces would. There is no way, Davion would allow the St. Ives to take over control of the rest. They did not want the destruction of their area.
It was to show you, your idea of them NOT interfering with things is wrong. And with the 3039 war, Fahst would not be part of comstar at the time, so would not have been there to stop anything Walterly would do. The Black boxes were not the instantaneous comms the hpgs are. And they had a limited range, as well as limited numbers even during the 3039 war. It still would not stop whole worlds from falling into ruin from not only any raids that went on, but the lack of drop ships making runs to them. This would actually be a good time for the dissidents in comstar to start the WOB movement and shut it down without the first circuits approval. Even ROM agents might well go rogue.
Comstar could have killed Hanse in the 4th war, but went after the NAIS instead. The imposter death commandos.
And in the feudal society, killing ones leader was completely in the norm, as well as treasonous activities, such as siding with the enemy to outright attacking ones lord forces in your area.
The fact that each march had their own ruling house before becoming a part of the FC still has it's temptations there.
A simple think like Morgan Davion finding out Hanse ordered his fathers death could well have stopped the attack as Morgan went to pay him back for it.
And I agree. With the writers stopping the end of the CC. It should never have survived the 4th war. But suggesting nothing would stop in in 3039 is ignoring the entire history of the IS. A simple hit to kill Hanse at the end of the 4th war could well have voided the entire history afterwards.
The logic that others wouldn't do something, is shown wrong in the future. You want to say it wouldn't happen sooner?
And as I suggested before. Try changing history with Ian Davion. Have him survive Mallory's World and stop the FC from ever happening.
Then again, have someone stop Amaris from killing the first lord in the first place. That destroys all of the games history.
|
ghostrider
05/09/18 10:51 PM
66.74.61.223
|
Actually, logic would dictate a full scale invasion of the only house that would be difficult to destroy, the DC. The writers saved it, as they could not have the Combine fall in a blitzkrieg style warfare like the fourth war was. They were the ONLY ones that could threaten the FC, going by your own statements. Why leave that to feaster, when you could easily destroy the CC, and the FWL is less likely to do anything, as your agents have the entire area ready to fight the ruling house.
But then that would never happen to the FC. I mean there is no way anyone of them or even a group of them, would think to grab power while the forces normally stationed in their area were gone.
Then the comstar 'gifting' the combine mechs, would have done what you claim Hanse wanted. Showing the duplicity of Comstar. There is even less that would cry about the DC's fall then the CC.
It was stated in one of the books the thought of the periphery states were more of a threat then the CC at the end of the war. There was no reason why sustained raids could not have finished them off, without waiting for 3039.
The history of the FS was built on the long slow destruction of the CC. The alliance was the only thing that made the quick demise possible.
With that, what if the archon said no?
|
Requiem
05/09/18 11:00 PM
58.175.193.140
|
All I can say is that we will never agree here as to the what ifs history.
We each have our own opinion as what may or may not have happened – getting a consensus will not happen – thus we must appreciate each other’s point of view and keep going forward as we are both making assumptions from a limited amount information that may or may not have affected the overall decision to invade / and if they were finally absorbed into the Federated Commonwealth during the 3039 / 40 war or left alone at that stage.
Thus the question that should be asked is - if the Federated Commonwealth did attack the Capellans who and how could they be stopped form conquering them?
Also if Battletech has taught me anything - you never ever leave an enemy in the rear - you make sure they are dead and buried before you proceed to the alpha target. Thus kill the Capellans first then build up your forces (10years min), strike a deal with the Free Worlds League - then when you have overwhelming superiority in 'Mechs etc. proceed to destroy the Kuritans - as I would want another 30 to 50 RCTs to give me tactical flexibility against the Draconis Combine before I attack (thus a total force of approx. 300 to 320 'Mech Regiment Units within the Federated Commonwealth) as you need to be prudent and flexible when attacking the Draconis Combine.
Though I still believe they should have been invaded – they were a threat that needed to be eliminated - and were very weak from the 4th Succession War - therefore why not take advantage of this?.
Though invading via raiding one planet at a time - you leave yourself open for constant retaliatory raids - it would be more efficient to complete it in one full scale assault. Plus it is more dramatic this way and it would scare (shock and awe) all the remaining houses that Hanse could pull it off - which would stroke his ego.
As for the Archon saying no - he does have enough forces to do it on his own - and he did promise his wife all of the Capellan Confederation - plus as a Lyran (Banking Background) the addition of this economy to the entire Federated Commonwealth - how may companies would like to have reconstruction contracts to repair the former Capellan Confederation this would bolster her economy with the lowest cost. As an all out war within the Draconis Combine would cost how much more in comparison ten / twenty times (?) and what would be the gains (unknown and speculative) (and could he have pulled it off with only the numbers assigned initially - if the Lyrans had not lost their commanders) whereas with the Capellan's it is quantifiable and achievable.
Requiem
Adelaide, Australia
Edited by Requiem (05/10/18 04:28 AM)
|
ghostrider
05/10/18 04:46 PM
66.74.61.223
|
The idea that taking care of the strongest opponent and leaving feeble ones to fester, as they are not a real threat is why the CC would be left alone in the 3039 war.
I do agree it would be destroyed sooner or later.
But I do have a question about being the first lord. Why do you think Walterly of Comstar would not have taking the opportunity to remove Hanse, promoting herself as the first lord, with the backing of the Comguards, Rom, and shutting down the entire comms network?
A simple deal with the DC and FWL to keep the comms open for them, could very well have them strike at the FC. And the periphery, to my knowledge, has HPG's administered by Comstar could well have been enticed to strike as well. Even the promise of upgrading their tech to Star League, or doing as they did in the CC buy helping them build new factories and train their techs to fix it is another factor that seems to be missing. The black boxes were not available in the numbers to deal with the numbers of attacks that (could) have resulted from this.
The issue with the archon saying no, meant the alliance, not the war. Hanse would never have given them the Chaos march, if he even did go into the war.
The losses from hitting the DC would have been greater, that is true. But removing their forces, and taking worlds would lessen them as a threat to the FC. The CC was still no a part of the FWL, so some of his border was buffered by the CC. It is highly unlikely the CC would allow FWL forces to move thru his area. As you said yourself. They did not have the forces to really do much be defend. The LC was not so hateful of the CC as the FS was, but the DC was an enemy to both. If not for the failure of them to take the worlds closest to terra, the DC would have lost a lot more.
And yes, the writers got smart to realize this would be the end of the IS conflicts as the FC would destroy the others eventually.
|
Requiem
05/10/18 08:25 PM
58.175.193.140
|
Quote “The idea that taking care of the strongest opponent and leaving feeble ones to fester, as they are not a real threat is why the CC would be left alone in the 3039 war”.
Not a real threat? Leave them alone in the 3039 war? ….. Really, have you learnt nothing about politics / strategy and tactics?, go back and re-read both Machiavelli’s the Prince and Sun-Tzu’s the Art of War - First, you NEVER EVER leave an enemy in the rear no matter how weak they are, you secure your rear FIRST. Then, and only then, do you prepare and determine an adequate strategy for dealing with the strongest army (Look at Napoleon and the Battle of Waterloo as an example of not dealing with a weaker force ) . And, second, you do understand War is the ultimate gamble there is no certainty that you will win – attacking the Draconis Combine your outcome is an unknown and speculative outcome, as to the number of worlds you will be able to conquer, the number of planets that have vital ‘Battlemech / aerospace / Dropship production / repair facilities you will obtain, and the amount of damage the DCMS will inflict upon the invading army of the Federated Commonwealth (can you say your army will be able to fight another war with the FWL once you have attacked the DC – how soon will the FC forces be ready for a second war post DC War? ); whereas attacking the Capellan Confederation is a quantifiable, your outcome - you will be able to have their complete production /repair facilities – the damage to the FC army is acceptable and you will be able to fight again. Thus this is why it wold be destroyed sooner not later ….
Removing Hanse through assassination is one thing – with the right assassin – maybe she could have.
Though let us consider the ramifications – If Hanse is assassinated – would this stop the mighty FC from the future conquest of the CC – the answer is NO – his wife Melissa (or their Regent) would pick up the torch (and the plans for the invasion) on behalf of Hanse and Mellissa’s Children - therefore to secure their future as First Lord of the Star League they would attack the CC.
If the assassin missed and was captured – what would Hanse Demand from ComStar to keep this quiet – you can bet it wold be higher than the 13 Ghost Legions the DC received … it would be payback time for the interdiction, the false Death Guard attack and forcing ComGuard forces on his world …. The complete scientific / engineering knowledge of the Star League and the ability to manufacture all of it could be asked …. They could become enslaved to Hanse Davion rather than risk ComStar becoming Nationalised by each Great House if their attempted assassination became common knowledge (and this could be a very real possibility).
As for shutting down the entire HPG network – the benevolent vision of Comstar that they have worked so tirelessly to promote – gone … never to be recovered – replaced with suspicion and distrust – and in all probability Comstar’s HPG stations will be Nationalised into each Great House –and the invasion of Terra by all Great Houses would occur. Would she risk this just to kill Hanse?
As for Comstar promoting an all-out war with the Federated Commonwealth – again they moving from an independent organisation to an active participant. Something they have never done in the past – something Blake’s writings strictly forbid – would the first circuit and the majority of the acolytes of Comstar (as they are a quasi-religious order) approve such a drastic move that their “Saint” Blake forbid? Remember what happed to ComStars Leader because she leaked the plans of Melissa's travel (and the Kell Hounds rescuing her) .....would they accept this a second time and throughout the Inner Sphere?
As for the Archon saying no as part of the alliance – this could have stopped him I agree – but why wold it? The economy and army of the CC can be dealt with. With a limited amount of troops causing minimal disruption to the border forces along the both the FWL and DC border – there is vast wealth in the CC and it can be taken so why not just take it?
AS for the Chaos March – again this is during the Clan Wars not 3039 so this has no point here.
Quote, “The losses from hitting the DC would have been greater, that is true. But removing their forces, and taking worlds would lessen them as a threat to the FC”.
Think about America Vs. Russia or China even - they are a threat why don’t we take them out – mutually assured destruction M.A.D. – the same for the FC and the DC an all-out war of destruction between the two would result in both being destroyed as an effective fighting force circuit 3039.
As for part of the CC buffeting the FWL – the most important part – the Capital and the Marik Commonwealth is not – it is only the rear area that is buffeted –the Duchy of Andurien – and they have been the same as the Skye Separatists – a rebel state advocating separation . Thus with the FC on their border they would have to become a permanent FWL member or risk becoming part of the FC. Thus the Captain-General of the FWL may view this as a good way to shut them up for good.
Yes, the DC is a threat to both the LC and FS – however politically and strategically there is a time and a place to deal with them – they are the strongest remaining enemy and it wold take a much larger force than what they have now to deal with them ( you would need a minimum of a three to one ratio when attacking i.e for their 100 'Mech Regiments you would need 300 ' Mech Regiments - basic strategy - in dealing with he DC on its own) – as politically they can only be brought to heal when they are completely vanquished. Thus the FS/LC alliance would have to have a vast increase their standing army, as it stands now, to finally deal with them.
Thus with the Battlemech production facilities located in the CC this could become a reality within a shorter time frame than without them. Think of the CC as a short term goal, The CC conquest for the utilisation of their factories to achieve the long term goal - establish a larger army that will be used to invade an conquer the DC. Thus achieving the goal as First Lord.
The FWL they could be dealt with politically – a marriage between heirs and the joining of their states could have been a political eventuality.
As for the writers – this is supposed to be a realistic world with the aim of one house finally re-establishing the Star League – not an eternal battlefield of misery and suffering. Or is this what you want a story of eternal war where your soldiers move from one battlefield to the next with no hope of peace? The five houses locked in eternal war .... is this really what you want?
A Marik / Steiner / Davion could then wed a Kurita (by force just like England / France post Agincourt) and we would have a star League - as long as Comstar decides not to initiate a Jihad as a side war on the road to peace.
The writers could then have skipped a generation and moved to war between the Clans and the new Star League in the deep periphery - Warships Vs. Warship - something like the Roughnecks - Bugs Vs. Humans or Exo-Squad Humans Vs. Neo Sapiens or even humans Vs Aliens if they were so desperate to keep the wars going.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
Edited by Requiem (05/10/18 09:06 PM)
|
Requiem
05/11/18 05:17 AM
58.175.193.140
|
Additional thoughts on the above discussion:-
Assassination -
You must remember assassination rarely if ever achieves its desired outcome - Look what happened when Arch Duke Ferdinand was assassinated, by pure chance, we got WWI.
In addition who would ComStar pin the assassination on? and why did that person assassinate Hanse Davion? - whoever and for what reason would lead to an all out war with the FC - so again who would this be against?
Assassination could lead to outcomes no one is prepared for .... thus this must be wielded with extreme care.
Post Reformed Star League -
With the reforming of a new Star League, this does not mean all wars within the Inner Sphere will Stop.
The Star League will not be able to stop ...
Dukes who would want to expand their borders or destroy their rivals or attempted secessionists plots from the new Star League ;
The Periphery itself - will the New Star League want to absorb the Periphery realms just as the old Star League accomplished. Mass wars on the border again.
The expansion of the Star League - explorer corp. finding new planets - followed by people - followed by corporations - range wars ensures - this is followed by the Star League Army to restore law and order (establish tithes to the Star League).
So there is still many battles that could ensure - the establishment of a new Star League is not the end of the game or the history of the original five states. It is just a new plot twist.
I should also make a point as to how the ruler of the new Star League rule - most would assume with absolute authority - however what if the people demand a "magna carta" and rules / limitations are put in place as to how he can rule - what if he has to have an executive council made up of people from all the former houses?
Depending on what these rules are limited war between dukes could be legal as the law permits them to retain their own military ....
Requiem
Adelaide, Australia
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
Edited by Requiem (05/11/18 05:34 AM)
|
ghostrider
05/11/18 12:24 PM
66.74.61.223
|
Blaming anyone they wanted to. Kurita would be highly likely, but they could blame one of the high brass in the inner ring of the Davion military. Kill the person they blamed and plant evidence on them.
For all this alternative planning, you haven't come up with anything like this.
And massed wars on the borders? You stated they were not a threat to the FC. Only the Turian Concordat would last a while, and that is due to their area in the dust cloud.
|
Requiem
05/11/18 06:56 PM
58.175.193.140
|
Blaming someone and planning evidence …. OK.
But you do know that even now police agencies /advertising companies/electoral agencies can psychologically profile you with a high degree of accuracy – guess how accurate it could be in 3029? Extremely high sound right?.
Planting evidence is not as easy as all the sitcoms would have you believe – also what if they were caught planting the evidence – MIIO is not to be considered a mundane security organization – their professionalism is second to none.
And consider this even if the evidence points one way, this does not mean the state will use it that way.
Consider this as an application of “Fake News” in getting the people behind you plan…. Consider when President Kennedy was assassinated …. What would have happened if Jackie went in front of the media, with her children, and stated she had evidence to the effect that “this group of people” assassinated my husband and your president ….. now consider at the same time if Mellissa did this with her children in tow … who would the people believe? The majority (99.9%) would believe Melissa … and you can be sure the repercussions would not be to Comstars’ favour ….
So yes there would be a plan for this …. I however didn’t discuss it (as above) …but you can be sure someone within MIIO would have a plan for all eventualities that could be thought up … this is why government agencies have ‘think tanks’, to put forward all the worst things that could have happened and thus create the contingencies necessary and ensure they are in place and ready to go to ensure their version of events is the accepted version of events.
…. And yes there will be a plan to get his news to all the people on all the planets despite Comstar …. However, if Comstar didn’t allow this news out how guilty would they appear to everyone?
Remember don’t believe everything that you see or read in/on the media …. How much of it even now is “fake news”?
Massed wars on the borders – can you please elaborate on this point – who would attack the FC 3039 if they attacked CC – in other words who would try to support the CC in this time of mass invasion – please not only state who but also expand on this point as to why, as I explained my points quite clearly.
As for the Truian Concordat – I am not suggesting that the FC would invade them during the 3039 war … so why are you bringing them into this? ….. I only made the point that once the Star League and the First Lord was established they may want to reunify the human race under one banner …. That of the star league …. So your point is what with regards to the 3039 invasion of the CC?
Requiem
Adelaide, Australia
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
Edited by Requiem (05/11/18 06:58 PM)
|
Requiem
05/11/18 08:30 PM
58.175.193.140
|
Sorry, I may have missed your point ….
Were you suggesting that the assassination of Hanse Davion and the framing of a third party would lead to an amended war plan other than the CC?
First, why would someone else frame a third party (who would it be?) to stop the invasion against the CC - logic would dictate only the CC would do this.
Second, you do realise that these facts are all mutually exclusive. In that the assassination of Hanse, the framing of a third party would not necessarily stop the war/ invasion against the CC? (as stated above)
The plans are set … why deviate from them … ? …. So why would the FC deviate from the invasion of the CC?
Or are you suggesting that Comstar would assassinate Hanse, frame the DC, so that the FC would go to war against the DC rather than invade the CC.
You do realise that the FC was able to invade both the DC and CC and fight off the FWL all at the same time during the 4SW – because going down this path of assassinating Hanse, framing the DC all you will get the 5SW.
The FC has forces to complete both the invasion of the CC and at the same time invade the DC in reprisal for the assassination of Hanse.
Also, why would the FWL get involved in the 5SW – the 4SW was disastrous for them and I doubt they would want a repeat of this war as they are still trying to get over the last SW.
Requium
Adelaide, Australia
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
|
ghostrider
05/11/18 10:13 PM
66.74.61.223
|
I did suggest comstar could assassinate Hanse. They had motive and the ability to do so. They could frame anyone, from the coordinator in the DC, to anyone in the FWL, even one of the generals that sit in with him in the Fox's Den.
A disgruntled field marshal makes a great scapegoat.
And it does not even have to happen during the invasion but any time before it.
And the detective works of the IS including Davion is not the all knowing system you make it out to be. If it was, then Comstar would have been figured out for the raid on NAIS HQ. I am not up on after Victor went Comstar, but it sounds like he never found out that little secret.
And the assassination might well have been what cause Hanse's heart attack in the clan war. There are things now that can do it, so it is assumed better methods should be around in the 3000's. And accidents do happen.
The question of the Turian Concordat comes from you asking who would get involved if comstar did strike at Davion. Simple logic of you want comms, then perform some strikes. Otherwise remain in the dark. More elegantly worded, but basically the same thing. As I said with high tech as well. Nice prize to help keep Davion out of the Concordat. Even going as far as supplying warships would work.
Oh yeah. Comstar controlled the engines that went into almost all innersphere warships... hmmm.
You keep saying it is the only logical thing to do is finish off the CC, when it isn't. The DC is the most logical, as the CC could only raid. Not invade, take worlds and actually hold them.
And one last thing for invasion of the CC. A simple message to the CC from comstar who would find out about it, and maybe even 'loan' some nukes to jump into the invasion fleet and destroy it like that isn't beyond being done. The CC wouldn't really have much to lose. And that could go for dropping them in other systems as well. But this is more unlikely then not.
One more note. The FWL did not really do much in the 4th war. It was not the forces of the FC that held them off, but the lack of commitment on Mariks part to get involved. Had they really been motivated, the LC would have lost a lot more worlds.
|
AmaroqStarwind
05/12/18 01:34 AM
99.203.154.134
|
Taurian, not Turian. This isn't Mass Effect.
And if I am correct, there are out-of-universe sources that state that Hanse Davion's heart attack was stress-induced. His luck had just catastrophically run out at the wrong time.
Discord: Amaroq the Kitsune#1092
Telegram: @Lycanphoenix
MechEngine (Alpha) -- On Hiatus
The Scientist Caste has determined that time travel is dishonorable. |
ghostrider
05/12/18 02:33 AM
66.74.61.223
|
I got the warship timeline screwed up for comstar making the engines for the innersphere.
But since comstar has warships the entire succession war period, it would not be so hard to believe they could resurrect the Minnesota Tribe and run thru the FS portion of the FC taking out production and ending Hanse Davion before heading back out towards the Concordat. A good starting point would be Galax and the ship yards there. Complete destruction with the warships firepower. Kathil would be another good target to help limit Davions strength. And it could be done before the 3039 war, if they got wind of the attack. Hell even during an invasion would make it even easier.
With the other houses, they would have to get involved in any strikes against the CC. Otherwise, they would be next. That part of the logic would always be there. So even a hitting the CC would start SW5.
Logic would suggest with the CC gone, more units would be on the DC/FWL borders as well as the periphery. Less needed for the deep worlds.
|
Cray
05/12/18 01:45 PM
67.8.228.37
|
Quote:
Blaming someone and planning evidence …. OK.
Consider this as an application of “Fake News” in getting the people behind you plan…. Consider when President Kennedy was assassinated ….
I understand the comparisons are all in relation to BT, but you might want to steer away from any discussions that trigger Posting Rule 3.
Also, after reading a few other posts I think I'm going to temporarily lock this thread and let everyone talk about other, less stressful topics for a while.
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer
Disclaimer: Anything stated in this post is unofficial and non-canon unless directly quoted from a published book. Random internet musings of a BattleTech writer are not canon.
Edited by Cray (05/12/18 01:50 PM)
|
Requiem
05/16/18 07:10 PM
58.175.193.140
|
Thanks for the comments they are an interesting read, please allow me to debate these points …
“Historically, the side with the numerical superiority decides when to start a war”.
(From the anime Log Horizon)
Yes assassinations have occurred in the Battletech universe before, usually as a means of transferring power from one individual to the next. However, as stated before assassinations rarely if ever produce the outcome they were intended to create.
Therefore, would an assassination stop an invasion of the CC? I have yet to be convinced it would.
As for The Taurian’s defence policy with regards to the FS, this has always been defence in depth together with a minimum amount of involvement with the Federated Suns other than the occasional raiding party – a successful policy to date as they have yet to be invaded.
Strategically, by acquiring the CC economy, military industrial complex, salvaged army and their merchant navy (both jump-ships and drop-ships) within ten to fifteen years the FC would have enough forces to invade the DC – as from what I have read on infantry doctrine, it suggests a preference of a 3:1 ratio is required when organising a military operation (i.e. for one of their soldiers you should have three of yours), thus giving your side a strategic and tactical advantage when in combat. As it is my belief that, as at 3039, the FC only has enough forces to wound the DC not to conquer it – thus any war would end in a stalemate and only a change in border – therefore the necessity of acquiring additional RCTs to make sure the conquest of the DC will be successful and completed with the minimal amount of damage on both sides. As the aim of any House Lord is the conquest of his/her rival, and it is not to just weaken them over time and this is what additional forces would provide the FC in a future conflict with either the FWL or the DC.
Together with my original point – the ability to conquer another house – this is an opportunity I doubt any ruler (with a track record of conquest) would be willing to give up … the ability to elevate himself or herself above those of his/her piers. The temptation would be too great not to invade and conquer.
As for the final point regarding the use of former SLDF warships, they were never utilized as it is presumed no one can manufacture them. A point to be encouraged not disproved.
As for others coming to the aid of or the CC when invaded by the FC for a final war of conquest – both the FWL and the DC require time to build up their forces as a future war of conquest is now inevitable – therefore the question must be asked as to why waste resources saving the CC?
In attempting to save the CC now the chances of success are slim to none – it would be more feasible for each house to rebuild their economy and create new units that could defend the realm in the future inevitable conflict.
Therefore as per the above quote the FC, “being the numerically superior side”, would decide when to invade either the DC or the FWL - when it has the resources to complete the final action in one war rather than transferring the succession war to a future generation, as the future House Lord, to complete as a parent would want to save their children from the burden this would bring them.
Requiem
Adelaide, Australia
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
|
|
|
Extra information
|
1 registered and 66 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator: Nic Jansma, Cray, Frabby, BobTheZombie
Print Topic
|
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is enabled
UBBCode is enabled
|
Topic views: 41761
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
