Re Thinking Jump ships and Drop ships

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ghostrider
08/08/19 09:20 PM
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QUOTE: Most of the thread has the push to make money in less then 5 years.
Where did I say this?
The costs would require a very large and very well-funded Colony to be considered viable from a cost benefit analysis – giving it due consideration 20,000 to 40,000 people at a single move could be considered a viable amount from a cost analysis.
Construction of a colony – Depending upon its complexity and the materials used 18 to 36 months would not be unthinkable to establish the viable colony.
All of them would have had a cost/production mindset – Logistics and Accountancy would demand nothing else.
There are other statements that suggest the colony must make money in a few years, otherwise the banks and such would find the cost analysis to be too risky.

One more thing. All the talk of the government not being able to do things is using real time government. The Hegemony was a different government. They were more strict on things, as they had to be. The costs to start with. Trying to send a military escort with the colonists was far to expensive to have everyone running to the hills.
So history does not fit here.


Edited by ghostrider (08/08/19 09:24 PM)
Requiem
08/08/19 10:07 PM
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Reading comprehension again - Establishing a Viable Colony – the Infrastructure required bricks and mortar, power, water, sewage, food etc …….

Risk analysis would be based on over a hundred years – most colonies take more than one generation to get it working.

Why would the Hegemony send a military escort with every new colony vessel?

If the Hegemony was a Totalitarian Government – then and only then would the Government have total control over the Colony – A military governor and the marines necessary to back up his/her rule over the colonists.
ghostrider
08/09/19 01:06 AM
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A Government that controls colonization does not have to be Tolitarian. I don't know why you got it in your head that was it. Most of Europe did as the Americas were being colonized. This is colonist, not those exploring that settled down.

Risk analysis would be based on over a hundred years
OH. Now you say that. The longest I have know for a bank to risk money is for a house. 30 years. Though refinancing can be done, the initial loan is 30 at the normal longest. 20,000 people and supplies to build a city sounds like short term, ie 5 years.

In canon, they required an escort with all colony ships after one of them went missing. I don't remember the year off hand, but that is where it's at.
In alt, you said it yourself that they would need protection. As the Hegemony military was the only game, it would be the most logical answer to this.

If the Hegemony was a Totalitarian Government – then and only then would the Government have total control over the Colony – A military governor and the marines necessary to back up his/her rule over the colonists.
This is incorrect. The government could have total control over coloines, such as those the Spainish had during their silver days. With having to import things thru space, a simple blockade and arresting any ship that violates it is enough to keep control. Revolt and not have fresh supplies coming in. Food it bad when the colony doesn't produce enough themselves. And in space, that is more common then not. If not, then the need to import food would not happen.
Requiem
08/09/19 04:29 AM
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QUOTE: A Government that controls colonization

The era (1607 onwards) and the means of how a colony is established for the Americas can in no way be compared with the era and the means of how a colony is established in the Far Future of the Hegemony and beyond.

These are two completely different systems.

The process of colonizing a new world can only be viewed from when it actually occurred.

Canon stated it was initially the countries (Like the USA) in control of Terran Alliance who gained the colonies. However of the 600 colonies only 360 were actually controlled by the Alliance – the remained being rogue Colonies However in 2236 Freedom declared its independence – starting rebellion on this world and many others.

QUOTE: Risk analysis would be based on over a hundred years

Argentina, Austria and Mexico have recently issued 100 year bonds.
ghostrider
08/09/19 01:22 PM
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The era (1607 onwards) and the means of how a colony is established for the Americas can in no way be compared with the era and the means of how a colony is established in the Far Future of the Hegemony and beyond.
Why not? The use of history in an environment that has no history comparisons are used by you all the time. Even now, people are required to have a passport to move to other countries. How is this different then moving to a new world?

These are two completely different systems.
Scope is the only difference. The future is huge, but then not being confined to a single world does that.

Argentina, Austria and Mexico have recently issued 100 year bonds. Most people that own banks don't want to die before they see a return for their investments.
Bonds are a little different then loan. And I would suspect there is some fine print to them.
One such thing I would look for is the clause saying the person who purchased the bond is the one that has to collect it when it matures. So that means your children or grandchildren couldn't benefit from it. And the government wouldn't have to pay it back. Though I guess you could buy it for a child and hope they live that long.
But I do suspect there will be lawsuits over them as well.
One such issue being the government defaults on them, when the time to pay them back comes up.

But his belongs in a different thread.
Requiem
08/10/19 09:08 PM
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QUOTE: Why not?

Two completely different sociologies – development, structure and the functioning of a human society.

1607 – Puritan society – governed by a monarchy Vs. 2200’s – many vast and different societies each with their own norms, goals, religions governed by failing democracy (or other – money – the top 0.01% who own the majority of the wealth pulling the strings from behind the curtain?) etc.

Two completely different technologies bases

1607 – hand tools, muskets, sail vessels Vs. 2200’s technical, digital and robotic driven societies.

1607 – one hundred and 150 people at a maximum per ship Vs. 2200’s – thousands to tens of thousands per ship

Two completely different destinations – a sea voyage or a heavenly voyage to a new world

The underlying psychology (the mindset of the colonists) and available resources of these two groups, are just too completely different from one another.


QUOTE: Bonds

Governments within recent history have used bonds as a means of financing – they usually do not have pre-conditions attached as no one would purchase them if they did.

Even in the far future of the Battletech Universe I would assume Banking / Finance practices are similar to that of today, just more heavily regulated by the House Lords Administration / Finance Departments.

It is only through a strong economy and an available finance system can there be funds available to allow for the initial colonization of new space as well as its continuance over centuries.
ghostrider
08/11/19 11:58 AM
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The underlying psychology (the mindset of the colonists) and available resources of these two groups, are just too completely different from one another.
Then don't try using history to support any of your statements.
Like how can the clan psycology have come about, or why the civvies didn't flee. Even the wolf packs run into this in space.

And with the idea of funding, this is the very reason why the huge ships would not come about. The states have their own ships, and would use them instead of buying or renting a ship 5 miles long.
This is not even getting into the design, prototype, and building of such a vessel. Costs for it would never be recovered, and that is also not saying if the stress of jumping would even allow it to survive.
Organizations would use the smaller resources as well, since they would spend less on them, even with fuel and everything else involved. It would be a more controlled event as well as an on going tax right off. The colony is reliant on the company to provide what it needs, so they are less likely to revolt. Sounds familiar?
Banks would not invest in this as an entity, but lending money is possible. They are not likely to do long term loans as they would with star craft as you can not really repo a world and trying to sell it would be even more difficult. Protecting the investment comes to mind.

So no. The rules do not need to be changed to make ships this size.
Even space stations are partially deconstructed, or constructed on site, instead of jumping them. And having a removable core on a space ship would give them an extra area to deal with ship making or storage.
The argument here may be how the Dragoons moved their station. As there is NO other examples in clan space, it is likely they disassembled and reassembled it.
ghostrider
08/11/19 04:28 PM
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Should the rules need changing in the following areas …
I have come to the conclusion the existing construction rules needs to be replaced to allow for the construction of a more realistic colony ship etc. Thus remove the existing rules and replace it with a completely new rules to allow for advancements in technology from the first jump circa 2100 to 3150.
These are statements in the first two posts, which basically comes down to trying to say it is asking if the rules should be changed, but in reality, saying canon needs to be reworked because they don't fit the persons objectives.

As house rules as well as an imaginative mind, would find a way around this, yet it seems the question of if they should change it, hasn't been answered.
As I have not heard anything about it, the person has not raised this question on the official board.
I bring this to light, as it seems this is not for opinion but to argue. More then a few other posts have supported the arguing issue, and the answer always reverts to my alt.

Others may be needed to say yes, it needs to be changed, or no, this concept is not needed in the canonverse.
Requiem
08/11/19 07:28 PM
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Historical Comparisons – George Santayana – Those who do not know history’s mistakes are doomed to repeat them.
Some are readily comparable / others are not.

Technological Development – Initially many high technological / high cost vehicles are State Owed (NASA – Rocket / Shuttle) but today we have individuals establishing companies / financing their own space projects (Virgin etc) – In the Battletech Universe I believe that yes ships are first only owned by the state due to the costs and technological requirements, however, over time both costs and technology no longer become a barrier to the individual / groups of individuals.

Funding – In the game world if funding was such an issue most wars would not occur due to high prohibitive costs – even a single warship could not be produced – paradox!

The game wold must have a degree of scope to allow it to create the uncreatable. Current Drop-Ship and Jump-Ship designs ARE a completely impractical design for interstellar colonization – they are just too small for mass colonist (people) and their animals transport. Long term zero G cannot be considered a healthy environment. Thus there must be a mass transport vehicle – the size of which can be determined by each game group and how the view their alternate universe.
Organisational size – there are organisations whose size, scope and revenue outperform many countries.
Banks – security could be a percentage of the planet –if their loan is defaulted, the bank can sell off to whomever they want this percentage of land which was held as security to recoup their losses.
So, in this way yes they can 'repo' the world.

I still believe there needs to be a colony vessel within the game – the size of which can be determined by each gaming group.

Many ‘stations’ could be moved within the game – Wold Dragons – Clans Supply bases (located in the deep periphery during their invasion) – Jump-ship mobile repair ships – are within the game.

The question that should be asked is if these ‘stations’ are in the game why were they never converted into a mobile fortress from which an entire army could be martialled and directed from.

So yes some home groups may see these ships as a positive game prop. And Yes, in my opinion, there needs to be an overhaul of the current rules to allow for colony ships within the game – the question is how big they are and how many people / animals can be transported. The purpose built colony vessel over the existing Jump / Drop-ship is, again in my opinion, is a more realistic concept when you consider how colonies are established.
ghostrider
08/11/19 10:23 PM
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Funding – In the game world if funding was such an issue most wars would not occur due to high prohibitive costs – even a single warship could not be produced – paradox!
The government has never really worried that much about costs. Private purchasing has. And when on defense, costs aren't an issue as you are dead if you don't stop the enemy.
Given the accountant part of this, I find it odd to even hear this suggested.

Historical Comparisons – George Santayana – Those who do not know history’s mistakes are doomed to repeat them.
Funny, how history is only right when it supports some opinions, but is absolutely wrong with others. Guess that is why history repeats itself. Some think I am not making the same mistakes.

completely impractical design for interstellar colonization – they are just too small for mass colonist (people)
Hmm. So real colonizing, ie less then a thousand, is done very well with the current designs. Only to fit the necessary mass transfer of people to the 'realm' between the IS and clans calls for the larger ships. So canon must be rewritten to allow this to happen. Not sure of others, but I feel this is shoving the concept down my throat, as there is no real reason to change the rules to make such a boondoggle ship.
Thus there must be a mass transport vehicle – the size of which can be determined by each game group and how the view their alternate universe.
So house rules don't do it. Canon must change to fit your designs. This is not opinion on concept, but an absolute demand it be done for your benefit. Take it up on the official board. Only they have the power to change it. A grassroots movement isn't going to happen.
ghostrider
08/11/19 10:33 PM
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Many ‘stations’ could be moved within the game – Wold Dragons – Clans Supply bases (located in the deep periphery during their invasion) – Jump-ship mobile repair ships – are within the game.
The stresses on such, may well be beyond their ability to withstand. It was brought out why they didn't use jumpships to move stations like the iceburgs of the Ryan Iceships.
It is possible a jump core this size does not work.
Who would even try to build this size of jumpdrive?

The question that should be asked is if these ‘stations’ are in the game why were they never converted into a mobile fortress from which an entire army could be martialled and directed from.
They have been. And they died in the during the Amaris revolt and the first succession war. A large, immobile object that has only one purpose, and it can't even do that right. Guard a jump point? Yeah right.
Oh. But this was answered when it was suggested to make a warship this size. It would be too unwieldy.

So far, the ONLY person I have spoken with that 'needs' this, has been you. The few that have said anything, have been basically, it is not needed.
And as been stated, it was not meant for before the league play, but to counter the clans and create the alt.
So the demand and arguing it is necessary for the game to continue is just trying to get arguments going, and then squaking it is an opinion when shown it isn't needed.
But then back when we played without construction rules being done, we used normal jumpships and dropships to make a colony. Imaging that. A world that built up rather quickly, as a stream of items is brought in, but not in one large ship... Well beyond a Behemoth.

One more observation. This only came about when the idea of the 'realm' came up and couldn't be done without a massive effort to create it. Irony?


Edited by ghostrider (08/11/19 10:34 PM)
Requiem
08/13/19 07:17 AM
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QUOTE: The government has never really worried that much about costs.

Federal / House Budgets will still be in existence within the Battletech era – thus they would need to be worried as costs. The complexity of which would require a small army of accountants and super computers to ensure it is adequately implemented, that is if you believe in implementing a more “real world” Battletech universe. There must be a percentage of GDP assigned to the military.

QUOTE: … there is no real reason to change the rules to make such a boondoggle ship.

Reason ……mass animal / human transport – muscle atrophy whilst in a zero G environment for long periods of time … not explained

Reason ……………. How many tens of thousands of Jump-ships and Drop-ships would be required, logistical challenge, to effectively colonise every world in the IS in the numbers required to establish a colony on every world and those that disappeared throughout the ages. How are they all created within such a relatively short period of time? … not explained.

Reason ……..How did Kerensky be able to transfer the millions of people for two years to reach clan space without the use of specialised colony ships? … not explained.

If a group want to adopt my theory of colony ships, let them!

QUOTE: The stresses on such, may well be beyond their ability to withstand.

And yet in the canon realm they did jump!

QUOTE: they have been. And they died in the during the Amaris revolt and the first succession war.

Can you please let me know – The name / class of the vessel, Book and page Number

A colony ship can be used to explain many of the Battletech historical holes – they could even help to explain many of the problems when it comes to explaining the Clans Invasion – especially when it comes to ‘sibko’ numbers that were completely glossed over and just came to the position that there are always enough warriors when in reality there must have been a shortage,

If you want to understand how poorly written the Battletch universe is may I suggest you read Legend of the Galactic Heroes as a comparison universe.
ghostrider
08/13/19 12:13 PM
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muscle atrophy whilst in a zero G environment for long periods of time … not explained
Gray Death Legion. The jumpship captain had braces on his legs, due to the lack of being in normal gravity. But again. That is why they do their burns, to move the ship to get some gravity.

How many tens of thousands of Jump-ships and Drop-ships would be required, logistical challenge, to effectively colonise every world in the IS in the numbers required to establish a colony on every world and those that disappeared throughout the ages. How are they all created within such a relatively short period of time?
Well first. Stop thinking a successful colony requires thousands of people. It doesn't. So one jumpship, with one dropship could colonize an entire system. They don't just drop thousands of people and say it's good. Colonies, the good ones, take time to build up .
The second part of this, you would also have to ask how so many people are in the IS in less then 1000 years. Billions on thousands of worlds. It took that long to get Earth up there. And that is just one world.

How did Kerensky be able to transfer the millions of people for two years to reach clan space without the use of specialised colony ships? … not explained.
This was partially explained, but the refusal to work with that explanation is the issue. You do not need luxury liners to move colonists. Those that have been written about were on board normal ships when they went out. But still, this is over looked. We are not talking about CEO's like the Brewer family going on a luxury ride. We are talking normal every day people that ride on what ever they can use. Grumble a little, but even an Intruder dropship would be fine to move them. And the trip does not have to be one continuous time aboard the ship. And again. 2 years for exodus. Other then that, I doubt any were aboard the ship for over 6 months straight.

If a group want to adopt my theory of colony ships, let them!
Again. It is fine if a group wants to do this. Saying canon is wrong and has to change is the issue. Talk all alt, or all canon. Mixing them is the biggest issue here.

QUOTE: The stresses on such, may well be beyond their ability to withstand.
And yet in the canon realm they did jump!
The Dragoons station was not said the unit jumped with its own drive, as it did not have a jump core onboard. The statement of the stresses well as the others in that response was possible reasons why they didn't go bigger.

If you want to understand how poorly written the Battletch universe is may I suggest you read Legend of the Galactic Heroes as a comparison universe.
And yet, for some reason, you continue to use canon as the basis for your alt. I have yet to see any game or story that doesn't have a few holes in them. Not that I believe canon is the best it could be. But then I am not part of the team doing so, and as I asked before. Where is your custom made game, so we can compare? Not an alt in the battle tech universe, but your own unique game with it's own rules.

The large stations. What happened to the huge habitats and work stations in the IS?
Requiem
08/13/19 07:17 PM
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QUOTE: Gray Death Legion….. braces on his legs ….. they do their burns, to move the ship to get some gravity.

….. braces …. Do all animals have braces for them? ….. burns how many and how often …. Fuel costs over long periods of time. Sorry but I find this to be error.

QUOTE: Well first. Stop thinking a successful colony requires thousands of people. It doesn't.

Questions
…. Without a large initial population how do you ensure a satisfactory gene pool from which to reproduce?
…. Without a large initial population how do you ensure the growth rate obtains a population for each and evey world within the IS as per canon figures by 3025 (also factoring in the wars)? Given time – does not this mean the growth rate has to become something ridiculous?

QUOTE: I doubt any were aboard the ship for over 6 months straight.

These is no evidence of any pit stops within the canon writings.

Due to the pervasion of mutiny’s within the fleet how can you let people off early – once off they would never be able to get them back on again.

Again muscle atrophy of people etc – given the small number of gravity decks available this would be ineffectual given the total number of people.

Again how can all the Drop-ships with people on them do burns to obtain gravity given their overall limited resources (fuel). How can the air reclamation units on every Drop-ship and Jump-Ship be expected to work properly given the number of people required to be stacked in like sardines? The mathematics of it all does not work ….

QUOTE: The Dragoons station was not said the unit jumped with its own drive,

How did it get from the IS to Clan Space and then from Clan Space to IS space and then move around as their contracts dictated?

QUOTE: Where is your custom made game?

Really? Read the series of books and compare the writing styles and the detail therein …

QUOTE: The large stations. What happened to the huge habitats and work stations in the IS?

They are there if you want them in the game include them – though I would believe they are more for the RPG side of the game.
ghostrider
08/14/19 04:07 AM
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…. Without a large initial population how do you ensure a satisfactory gene pool from which to reproduce?
…. Without a large initial population how do you ensure the growth rate obtains a population for each and evey world within the IS as per canon figures by 3025 (also factoring in the wars)? Given time – does not this mean the growth rate has to become something ridiculous?
Due to the pervasion of mutiny’s within the fleet how can you let people off early – once off they would never be able to get them back on again.
Are you just trying to argue, or do you not know how colonies actually work?
What are the perameters you are using to figure out a successful colony? One that has Defiance industries on world by 10 years, with 2 billion in population?
They survive and thrive is successful. And gee. Maybe with each supply ship, more colonists come in, or may be immigration doesn't count for making a colony larger.

Now. With getting off, what makes you think this is not just stopping until the next ship heading out, gets there?
Except the exodus, I don't see any colonizing efforts taking more then a year at most to get where they going. Most would stage at the last point that they could gather resources then head out. So say the TC or the OA going out from the FS.
Oh yeah. They are supposed to leave from terra and head out for 2 years without stopping. All colonies started that way.
And military mindset? You said the government wouldn't have any control over this. Or did you fall back to the exodus again, without saying so?

Fuel costs over long periods of time
And there is the misunderstanding of this. Is the fuel costs for burns more then having people start developing the space issues? Most would say no, and due the gravity burns. Less then one g will work. Just enough to fight the bone decay.
Requiem
08/14/19 06:29 AM
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Have a play with a Human population calculator

http://www.metamorphosisalpha.com/ias/population.php

try to find the most recent figures after colonization – the more time used the greater it cannot be believed.

Individual questions have yet to be answered ….

Initial Colony Years – not 850 years into the future …. Just four generations in ….

Without a large initial population how do you ensure a satisfactory gene pool from which to reproduce?

This is a legitimate question – if a remote world starts with a small initial population, as per your perameters, and the idea of increasing the population through immigration is remote – then what’s next, mass IVF medical procedures to keep society active?

Mutiny = Kerensky’s Exodus

This is again a legitimate question – Canon has his Kerensky’s son being a part of the mutiny as people have come to see that Kerensky does not know what he is doing …. There is no long term plan …. You suggest letting them off at the next earth similar world for a little R&R – one off the ships how do you get them back on board without starting a riot / killing many of them to force them back onto the Exodus track?

Human nature would dictate that once they get off the ship they are never getting back on again without a fight!

Defiance Industries

Poor example when consider the world and the reason people went there – their job!

Consider Colonization

So far the argument revolves around the time to get there.

However what about building the colony – what about building the farms – agriculture, horticulture, viticulture, aquaculture etc – what about building the houses – what about building the infrastructure – roads, electricity water, sewerage etc.
How many Jump-ships and Drop-ships?

Sorry but creating an artificial g by creating a gravity burn - Just enough to fight the bone (what about muscle?) decay does not hold water – what if you have children, what if you have infants, what if you are transporting animals.

Sorry but no the Drop-ships can is in no way be considered to be a contusive environment for humans and animals for anywhere over a month – especially if you have them living together. This is a closed environment one wrong disease and everyone will be dead. (It is like one person having a cold on an aircraft trip – you can bet a majority will come down with it shortly soon after, due to the closed environment)
ghostrider
08/14/19 11:10 AM
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Poor example when consider the world and the reason people went there – their job!
This is not colonization, but a forced migration of people.
Exploration is a job. Being hired to work on a new world is a job. Rarely, was anyone paid to colonize a new place. Maybe the definition of this is where the next step needs to go.

if a remote world starts with a small initial population, as per your perameters, and the idea of increasing the population through immigration is remote – then what’s next, mass IVF medical procedures to keep society active?
More then a few very successful worlds were small communities that thrived and grew. They didn't need the artificial means to expand the populations.

what about building the farms – agriculture, horticulture, viticulture, aquaculture etc – what about building the houses – what about building the infrastructure – roads, electricity water, sewerage etc.
How many Jump-ships and Drop-ships?
What about having premade buildings go with the colonist? What about having farms that feed the colonist and not be ready to ship out mega tons of food off world, as some colonies would never be able to? The infrastructure is built as needed, not making the greater Los Angeles area as soon as you land. If this is the case you are looking for, then having it built BEFORE the people that will live there is required. Then, as you say, it is migration.

This is a closed environment one wrong disease and everyone will be dead.
So any traveling on ships would be dangerous. So expansion to the stars, even on the 5 mile long ship could not happen due to this very issue.
And yet again. The people going to a new world will not be on the ship for more then a year, if that. The exodus is unique in that aspect. It can NOT be the basis for normal colonization.

Trying to say all colonizing efforts will take the time the exodus took is beyond foolish. Only in extreme cases will someone leave from Terra to head out as far as the clan home worlds. A week recharging, and 10 weeks you can be up to 300 light years from the place you started. That is a pretty good distance. And still, you think that it is done in one go. No stopping anywhere to rest in a gravity environment. Such as a space station in civilized areas before you head out deeper.
ghostrider
08/14/19 11:29 AM
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Where does is say Alexander was part of the people revolting against his father?

Now for the black hole sized logic gap.
Why would any of the houses, DC or FC/LA spend the resources building a bunch of factories in the deep periphery, which was not covered by the truce in the initial years? Would they not spend all their resources rebuilding the world, including military factories within their own borders?
Some outposts and depots would be, but not some huge colonies, that they could not defend against the clans.


And this argument stems from someone demanding canon changes to follow their vision. Changing to the alt everytime to say it has to be that way, while arguing canon need to be rewritten is the problem. Own up to it, and go straight canon or straight alt. So far, most of the threads have been saying this. It needs to fit your vision. This is not suggesting a different alternative to the canon, but a full out insistence that canon be changed.
If you want to continue saying it is showing an alt, then the entire way it is presented and demands of changing needs to change.
Rules need to be fix, and some extra clarifications to some need to happen.
You suggest a better story, yet continue to use the faulty canon line, and can not see the logic holes are still there.
Retry
08/14/19 12:30 PM
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I feel both the differing "classes" of ships and the specialized dropships are largely unnecessary. The ship classes would need a ton of rework of most of the canon warships to make feasible, and there's really no need for "specializing" a dropship. You can theoretically make a single dropship capable of carrying 10,000 civillians, enough consumables for a year, and still have 10,000 tons available for diesel or fusion backup generators, light manufacturing, medical equipment, and vehicles.

Dedicated colony vessels could be useful but also perfectly capable of being made with current rules, and somewhat unnecessary as the same could probably be done with slightly modified canon jumpships and dropships.
Quote:

Without a large initial population how do you ensure a satisfactory gene pool from which to reproduce?


Taking genetic considerations only into account, the "magic number" to ensure a health human human population is 98. Or 160, or 80, depending on how you do the counting. But you don't need a particularly large initial population.

https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/how-many-humans-would-it-take-keep-our-species-alive-ncna900151

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1936-magic-number-for-space-pioneers-calculated/#.VBiC_XtDLwo

Quote:
…. Without a large initial population how do you ensure the growth rate obtains a population for each and evey world within the IS as per canon figures by 3025 (also factoring in the wars)? Given time – does not this mean the growth rate has to become something ridiculous?



3025, the IS has a population of around 6 trillion. Starting from 2100 with a population of 11 billion.

Using the following equation for exponential growth:
Xt=X0(1+r)^t
Where Xt is the final population (6 trillion), X0 is the initial population (11 billion), r is the human growth rate, and t is the time interval (3025-2100=925 years), we solve for r.

We find r to be .00683=0.683%/year. To get from 2100 to canonical 3025 numbers, the entire human population has to be maintained on average to be about the same level as the United States has right now (~0.7%). Not only is that not ridiculous, that's not even impressive.

Using the same formula, we can take an example planet: New Earth, with a population of 302 million in 3130. The colony was established around 2108, so t=1037. Take the highest peak of historical world-wide human growth rate of 2.2% as a reasonable figure achievable for a new colony. Solving for X0, we get... .05 humans. Obviously that doesn't make any sense to have one-twentieth of a human on a colonization ship, so the colony obviously can't have grown at an average rate of 2.2% per year, which would be quite large but not ridiculous: The number must be somewhat lower.

Running the simulation again, assuming an initial population of the "magic number" of 98 people, a final population of 302,000,000 in 3130, and a time interval of 1037 years, we solve for r=.0145=1.45% per year. Even with only 1 colonization wave and no immigration with less population than some of the tiniest towns, it's perfectly feasible to reach the populations noted in canon.

https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth

Quote:
Sorry but creating an artificial g by creating a gravity burn - Just enough to fight the bone (what about muscle?) decay does not hold water – what if you have children, what if you have infants, what if you are transporting animals.



Neither children, nor infants, nor cattle can tell the difference between the accelerations produced due to that of a planetary mass (gravity), reaction acceleration (warship/dropship under a constant acceleration) or centripetal acceleration (Grav Decks).
Requiem
08/14/19 07:11 PM
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QUOTE: More than a few very successful worlds were small communities that thrived and grew. They didn't need the artificial means to expand the populations.

Was gene regression even considered? Or can we assume the game developers / writers forgot about this?

QUOTE: … having it built BEFORE the people that will live there is required.

How?
The only other people that were there before them were the explorers who found the world.
Or are you suggesting that there should be two waves
First wave, construction crew to get everything ready …. Ship number one and crew
Second Wave, the colonists ….. ship number 2 and crew
Question ….. Cost …. Wouldn’t this nearly double the cost as you now need two ships rather than one?

QUOTE: So any traveling on ships would be dangerous.

Yes …. Same as travelling on a cruise ship, however, in this case you are also taking all your farm animals with them. How many cruise ships (and how long were they on their cruise before the bug struck?) have been in the media due to a bug travelling around the crew and passengers.

Drop-ship …. Consider its small size – can areas be quarantined – level of medical facility is akin to a fist aid station? (Lower Level of Safety for crew and passengers)
My colony ship ….. Consider its size – areas can most definitely be quarantined – a state of the art medical facility is built into the ship. (Higher Level of Safety for crew and passengers)

QUOTE: distance

Distance is irrelevant … safety and comfort for the people and their farm animals, the ability to transport all necessary equipment, housing, agricultural needs etc, the costs and time associated with travel is what will be determining factors. In my opinion when you compare a purpose built ship (however big it is) for colonization and Drop-ship that can only be described as a cargo carrier can you say the purpose built ship is the best fit.

Please read – Small Population Size Effects – Genetic Drift

https://www2.palomar.edu/anthro/synthetic/synth_5.htm

Marin stated a suitable group of 98 individuals – what happens if even one of these 98 people have a regressive gene problem?
Smith “Even a population of 14,000 strikes Smith as a modest number if you’re counting on it to sustain our species”

Retry – where / how did you get the figure of 6 trillion people?
Also this overarching calculation and does not take into account many individual world assumptions –– information asymmetries (Joseph Stiglitz) – perfect information - faulty standard models, and the faulty policy implications and recommendations that arise from their unrealistic assumptions..
Also did you use the British or American Trillion? Remember the American (1n12) is no-where near the British (1n18).

QUOTE: Neither children, nor infants, nor cattle can tell the difference between the accelerations produced due to that of a planetary mass (gravity), reaction acceleration (warship/dropship under a constant acceleration) or centripetal acceleration (Grav Decks).

And what if there is no Grav Decks available?
My ship – permanent gravity deck.
Jump-Drop-Ship has no permanent gravity environment. What happens then?
Retry
08/14/19 10:39 PM
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Quote:
Marin stated a suitable group of 98 individuals – what happens if even one of these 98 people have a regressive gene problem?
Smith “Even a population of 14,000 strikes Smith as a modest number if you’re counting on it to sustain our species”


Cameron Smith's paper is an excessively conservative estimate. In fact, it presupposes a severe population catastrophe over a 5-generation voyage. Since there exists many cases of isolated communities with well under 1,000 people and minimal, if any, inter-mixing with foreigners (Tristan da Cunha, or the Pitcairn Islands). It's only a decent estimate if you need that colony to have a 100% success rate to save the entire human species, which is not the circumstance under Battletech's age of colonization.

Battletech's age of colonization takes place about a century into the future. Humanity has far better scientific understanding and technology associated with genetics. Their ability to screen out genetic issues, and treat them, would be far better and more reliable than it is today, and thus the minimum viable population threshold shifts downwards.

Quote:
Retry – where / how did you get the figure of 6 trillion people?


The following essay is the closest I can find to a source without actually going through and checking every single one of the thousands of planets in the Battletech Universe.
http://www.sarna.net/wiki/User:Revanche/...hese%20concepts,take%20a%20few%20hundred%20billion.

Quote:
Also this overarching calculation and does not take into account many individual world assumptions


I don't need to. I just have to show that a ridiculously high growth rates are not necessary to reach the populations given in Battletech.

It's 10e12. "American" trillion and British trillion are the same. The British use the short scale now, they don't refer to the long scale 10e18 as a trillion anymore.

Quote:
And what if there is no Grav Decks available?
My ship – permanent gravity deck.
Jump-Drop-Ship has no permanent gravity environment. What happens then?



Dropships when detached from a jumpship will be under constant accelerations when in transit to and from their destination, excepting a negligible period during the halfway point when shifting to deceleration. On a Jumpship, there is access to the Grav Deck. Jumpships spend most of their time charging their sails for the next jump, and as such most of the time they're stationary enough to use the Grav Deck.
Requiem
08/15/19 01:50 AM
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QUOTE: Humanity has far better scientific understanding and technology associated with genetics. Their ability to screen out genetic issues, and treat them, would be far better and more reliable than it is today, and thus the minimum viable population threshold shifts downwards.

Where is this written?

What if the issue comes from the colonist’s new world? Given the colony size how would you rate their chances of success given the limited number of colonists and the limited number of medical technological equipment – also what if the virus is fast given the limited number of people how long could they survive? Also what is the chance of your medical person coming down with something early on – ie. how quick / can you quarantine the sick?

Whereas with a larger more comprehensive colony how would you rate their chances in comparison? Would you not believe they have the equipment – they have experts in every field – they have the contingency plans to quarantine the sick / protect their people from infections?

I for one would want to be with a larger more comprehensive colony – your chances of having experts to treat you would be greater than that of a smaller more limited colony.

QUOTE: Population Assumptions

Thanks for the source material of trillion people, however, this does not define if they are using the English or the American trillion.

I also like the last paragraph “here’s a lot of potential wiggle room in population figures. At 0.4% growth over 1000 years, you’d only end up with 1.1 trillion people (starting from Earth’s current almost 7 billion and assuming unconstrained growth), while at 1.133% growth you’d wind up with around 630 trillion. Distributing those 630 trillion people across the Inner Sphere would take, as I mentioned above an absolute minimum of 40 million JumpShips (assuming Star Lords loaded with Behemoths), and the couple of thousand inhabited planets of the Inner Sphere might have difficulty sustaining 300 Billion people each”.

Thus indicating the limiting factor, in that a very small increase in the human population growth figure will have major consequences as to the final population over 1,000+ years.

QUOTE: Trillion

The American Trillion definition has a 1 and twelve zeroes after it.
The English Trillion definition has a 1 and eighteen zeroes after it.
They are not the same at all!

Where is it shown that the UK has adopted the US trillion value?

QUOTE: access to the Grav Deck

Given that most of the time is taken by unfurling the sail, charging the battery and then refurling the sail and on most ships – one with a 90m track springs to mind – when you are transporting a population in the thousands / plus the animals how well will this work?

Also how many grav decks are there on most Jump-ships and Drop-ships?

Sorry but I still contend that one very large grav deck that is built into the internal workings of the ship (thus will not affect a jump) is the only logical design addition that should have been included on all ships from the beginning. The current design is not contusive for human life – short or long term.

The only way the ships can be designed as is, is if they have an gravity generator that can create an artificial one gravity throughout the entire ship. If this is the case I want my gravity weapons and mines!

So lets go back to the Clans – after spending six months on a trip to the IS from clan space – how much physio therapy will each warrior and technician require to regain lost muscle mass before starting the invasion – given that most ships have only one grav deck – ie. everyone has a limited amount of time on the grav deck.
ghostrider
08/15/19 05:04 AM
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Was gene regression even considered? Or can we assume the game developers / writers forgot about this?
Keep grasping at straws. You may yet find one that has some meat to it. First off, the initial settlers of even 10, are not going to be populating the world. If the colony is successful, others will migrate, or colonize other areas of the same world. The gene pool is not inbred, like you are trying to make is sound like. Much like colonizing North America. How many ships came to America? So the population gene pool didn't have enough?

And speaking of ship numbers, how would this new realm become anything close to a successor state, as it would need well over a thousand jumpships, just to keep it's own people in supplies. Probably 5 times that in dropships. Yet according to you, there were more then enough, until it comes time for colonizing with the smaller ships. This is where the truth of the matter comes out. There is no way you can keep arguing your alt against canon and not create more logic holes.
And none of the states would allow that many ships out from under their control. And commercial ships will not stay in that area. They will not become the sacrificial pieces to hold the clans back. Just won't happen. So military from the houses, yet they are not going to just let someone commadeer them like what is suggested with the Omi/Victor realm.
They are supposed to be big and organized enough to hold back the clans and still hit the IS?
Where is the logic in this? Sorry. I forgot. It is a fantasy wargame.

Neither children, nor infants, nor cattle can tell the difference between the accelerations produced due to that of a planetary mass (gravity), reaction acceleration (warship/dropship under a constant acceleration) or centripetal acceleration (Grav Decks).
So the degeneration of the body would not happen with the burns. Hmm. Guess that point is solved.
ghostrider
08/15/19 05:22 AM
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Or are you suggesting that there should be two waves
First wave, construction crew to get everything ready …. Ship number one and crew
Second Wave, the colonists ….. ship number 2 and crew
Question ….. Cost …. Wouldn’t this nearly double the cost as you now need two ships rather than one?
Again. The lack of knowledge in colonization is showing. What you seem to be stuck on is one persons sponsoring the colonization of a single world.
A true colony will have more then a few dozen going there, as it will not be a one time shot. If it is, then the colonists are probably dead.
Who said that just one person is financing this whole thing? Maybe you should use history instead of just spouting it, trying to make it sound good. How many ships went to Australia? America? Was that all financed by one person or even organization? Religion sent some of their people as well as governments, businesses and such. Wow. What a concept.

Please read – Small Population Size Effects – Genetic Drift
Why? We are not talking about the only people that will live there will come on the same ship. Or even half a dozen. Get the one ship concept out of your mind. Colonizes are built in waves of more people coming as the community succeeds. What you are talking about is a forced migration. It is not the same thing.

What if the issue comes from the colonist’s new world? Given the colony size how would you rate their chances of success given the limited number of colonists and the limited number of medical technological equipment – also what if the virus is fast given the limited number of people how long could they survive? Also what is the chance of your medical person coming 7down with something early on – ie. how quick / can you quarantine the sick?7
Yeah. What if you get to the new world and find a disease that kills the entire colony? So now instead of a few dozen, you have thousands dead.
And this costs is from the accountants point of view. Colonies do not send mass amounts of people at one time. The fact the area may only support a few dozen, and needs to be worked on to do more. But then what is the chance the small and probably unskilled doctors have of doing much about it?
Oh that's right. They have a fully functioning hospital staff like the NAIS with each colony that goes out. So how many hundreds of staff members do you have to send out? And what about the home worlds that now, no longer have any doctors?
ghostrider
08/15/19 05:40 AM
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The 6 Trillion number seems a little high for just the CC. The entire IS? I suspect it is way to low for that. Given a lot of worlds have 5 billion or so on them, only 200 worlds makes a trillion. And if I know right, those numbers are for that world only, not the solar system they are in. So saying earth has 3 trillion on it, we do know they did have colonies on Venus, Mars, and moons around Jupiter, Saturn, and probably things on the other planets in this system.

Whereas with a larger more comprehensive colony how would you rate their chances in comparison? Would you not believe they have the equipment – they have experts in every field – they have the contingency plans to quarantine the sick / protect their people from infections?
Actually no. I don't believe all the colonies have anywhere close to the high end scientists and doctors. Most would NOT leave their planet to go into the unknown. Being FORCED by a company or state is different. But again. That is an outpost, or military base, not a colony.

Given that most of the time is taken by unfurling the sail, charging the battery and then refurling the sail and on most ships – one with a 90m track springs to mind – when you are transporting a population in the thousands / plus the animals how well will this work?
Maybe that is why you only have a few hundred max... hmmm.
The only way the ships can be designed as is, is if they have an gravity generator that can create an artificial one gravity throughout the entire ship. If this is the case I want my gravity weapons and mines!

So lets go back to the Clans – after spending six months on a trip to the IS from clan space – how much physio therapy will each warrior and technician require to regain lost muscle mass before starting the invasion – given that most ships have only one grav deck – ie. everyone has a limited amount of time on the grav deck.
This is assuming they didn't stop off at worlds along the way, and did it in one shot. Which sounds off, as it was less then 7 months from Terra. So how far out are they really? The LC is a huge realm. Take a couple of months to get from Terra to Coventry, much less the actual periphery.
And we know they did, as they made depots and HPG stations. It the actually story, they said the clans stopped just outside the periphery to get some organization going. It would be foolish to think they sat on their jumpships for this.
ghostrider
08/15/19 05:44 AM
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This whole thread is about trying to find a way to populate his alts realm between the IS and the clans in less then 50 years. It just isn't going to happen with simple colonists. It will be major military bases with massed civilians sent out with the troops, yet the states would not risk that.
They would be too far to do anything if the clans did attack them.
And this is where he would say his alt would be prepared for them with a huge aerofighter force, with their own pocket warships and crap.'
And the argument goes that the amount of ships is more then enough to swamp the clans with forces, yet they don't have enough to send out small ships to colonize worlds.
The irony is very sad.

As stated before. Do what you want with your alt. Don't come in and demand the canonverse has to change to fit your vision.
Requiem
08/15/19 08:28 AM
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Reading Comprehension - Was gene regression even considered …. regarding the topic ….. small community worlds.

Also this is why the concept of genetic drift was introduced … small population colonies can lead to issues in the future.

QUOTE: ship numbers, how would this new realm become anything close to a successor state, as it would need well over a thousand jump-ships, just to keep it's own people in supplies

Successor states do not exist yet when the first colonies were established.

As they relate to the Kerensky’s Exodus – “And none of the states would allow that many ships out from under their control” …. If enough warships guard them they will.

Omi / Victor realm
First, colonies are established following the SLDF – they are “hangers on” to the military – the military wants them there to assist with non-combat operational requirements.
Second, the FC and the DC established colonies in the deep periphery – they sent them out there to increase the size of their realms into the deep periphery.
Third, it was not until many years later did Omi / Victor declare independence of their new realm within the Deep Periphery – fought a war and won – hence new realm with all the trimmings.

Grav Decks
How many are on a normal Jump-ship?
How many are on a normal Drop-Ship?
If you are taking two weeks to recharge are you saying you will spend the majority of that time creating an artificial burn to simulate gravity? Can this even be done – wear and tear on the engine / fuel etc.

Question, were did I suggest “one person sponsoring the colonization of a single world”?

Ownership of a world is just another form of property speculation – any additional colonists will need to pay the world trust who then distributes the funds to the original owners and their descendants.

Question, were did I suggest there would be “forced migration”?

QUOTE: Colonies do not send mass amounts of people at one time.

I thought this was my proposition? – one ship – 20,000 to 40,000 people – made up of professionals from all walks of life, who could form the nucleus of a colony upon a virgin world.

If a colony was established with 20,000 to 40,000 people you can assume they would have the complete technical hardware of the NAIS Hospital to start with.

Even professionals can have a dream to be part of something greater.

And is this not what I am advocating for a more orderly / professional colony where the majority of risks have been minimized through utilizing a large and well equipped society to form a colony rather than the “fly by night” operation that is suggested by using Drop-ships and Jump-ships.

QUOTE: Given that most of the time is taken by unfurling the sail, charging the battery and then re-furling the sail and on most ships – one with a 90m track springs to mind – when you are transporting a population in the thousands / plus the animals how well will this work?

Kerensky’s Exodus – how many were on each ship? – sorry this does not work here!
Yes, it only works is you have a small number of crew and those on your drop-ships – anywhere else it just doesn’t work.

Question - how do you get an animal (say a cow) from the Drop-ship cargo area to the grav deck so that it can take a walk (hopefully without any accidents along the way there, on the grav deck and on the way back)? What about the smaller animals - chickens are there walls on the grav deck to keep them in when they have their scheduled gav deck time?

QUOTE: Clans…. this is assuming they didn't stop off at worlds along the way, and did it in one shot … And we know they did, as they made depots and HPG stations. It the actually story, they said the clans stopped just outside the periphery to get some organization going. It would be foolish to think they sat on their jump-ships for this.

Question: was the entire armada for each clan sent on a mission to establish these bases or could we assume specialized units (similar to the Sea Bees in WW2) were used to establish these bases. Wouldn’t it be a little overkill to send all you units out to establish these bases before having to return at a set date so that they could then invade the IS.

Logistics – logistics chains over a long distance

So the clans can create a logistical chain from the Clan Home Worlds to the IS but the IS cannot create one from the IS to the end of the Deep Periphery?

How does that work?

Number of Ships
I thought we had been through this before – there are no numbers written down anywhere where it stipulates the number of ships any IS house has at any one period of time. Thus there is no way a statement can be made to say that they don't have enough to send out small ships to colonize worlds.
ghostrider
08/15/19 12:35 PM
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Successor states do not exist yet when the first colonies were established.
And where are all these ships coming from to do so? Unless military run, there would not be more then a handful of ships in this region, and even then, that isn't likely they could join any sort of resistance movement. All know the clans would take anything they wanted to in the region. So how do you move anyone?
The 'big' colonizing organizations wouldn't risk sending a tens of trillion c-bill ship out there. It is an almost garenteed loss.

As they relate to the Kerensky’s Exodus – “And none of the states would allow that many ships out from under their control” …. If enough warships guard them they will.
Continue that thought. Guarding them on the way out, but leaving them as soon as they can, since leaving warships to guard some unknown world, verses important industries at home would have those warships leaving the moment they are recharged. So no. They wouldn't.

Third, it was not until many years later did Omi / Victor declare independence of their new realm within the Deep Periphery – fought a war and won – hence new realm with all the trimmings
Step one to this who paragraph. Why are you trying to colonize the deep periphery? Other then the need to fill in a hole for the alt? You would colonize worlds close to home, where you can protect them better. You are NOT going to send a few dozen regiments of troops to guard few hundred worlds this far out. Military bases are a different story.

If you are taking two weeks to recharge are you saying you will spend the majority of that time creating an artificial burn to simulate gravity? Can this even be done – wear and tear on the engine / fuel etc.
There may be a time or two that would take 2 weeks to recharge, but the average is 1 week. So your two year voyage to a world still isn't going to happen. Well unless you are colonizing beyond the clan home worlds. Which would be highly and stupidly foolish.
ghostrider
08/15/19 12:52 PM
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Number of Ships
I thought we had been through this before
We have. And it keeps changing in your posts about the alt. When it is convenient for you, there are ships dropping out of the sun. But when used against you, there suddenly becomes the ghostland of ships in the IS. Which is how lot of the arguments go in the alt threads.

Ownership of a world is just another form of property speculation – any additional colonists will need to pay the world trust who then distributes the funds to the original owners and their descendants.
Still showing you don't have any real idea of what colonization is. Colonists do not pay for the land in a new region, like a world in the deep periphery. Now this combined with...
I thought this was my proposition? – one ship – 20,000 to 40,000 people – made up of professionals from all walks of life, who could form the nucleus of a colony upon a virgin world
Shows that this is NOT a real colony, but someone sponsoring a new region for them.
And your thought of the proposition was one colony ship? No. Your proposition... no. Your demand is for canon to change the rules so you can do this. And it is a demand.
Now add to it, the inclusion of profit analysis. This is someone looking to create a new office for their company. But some how, the big picture is being missed by the posts.

If a colony was established with 20,000 to 40,000 people you can assume they would have the complete technical hardware of the NAIS Hospital to start with.
Not even close. If that were true, ALL worlds in the IS would have this. And they don't. Not even the FS, and they are the ones to make NAIS. This explains why you think it costs so much to make a colony. It also shows you are artificially creating a colony that even with 40000 people will not mean it is successful. This is more of a military outpost, and even then, would not have the professionals you suggest.

how do you get an animal (say a cow) from the Drop-ship cargo area to the grav deck so that it can take a walk (hopefully without any accidents along the way there, on the grav deck and on the way back)? What about the smaller animals - chickens are there walls on the grav deck to keep them in when they have their scheduled gav deck time?
Ah? Push? No gravity means their ability to resist going is nullified. Or use food to entice them. Then the ever popular using cargo movers in the zero g. Keep grasping.
ghostrider
08/15/19 01:08 PM
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Question, were did I suggest there would be “forced migration”?
And is this not what I am advocating for a more orderly / professional colony where the majority of risks have been minimized through utilizing a large and well equipped society to form a colony rather than the “fly by night” operation that is suggested by using Drop-ships and Jump-ships.
Again. Use this 'widely educated history' and look at how colonies are built. The only real time a corporation gets into it, is if they smell a profit. Normally an asset that is needed is found. Colonies tend to be small farms at first then grow.
And look at how much food a larger aircraft carrier eats in a day, with 4000 or so people. Over 150 tons, and a lot of that is flown in daily.
So for 20000 people, you are 750 tons of food a day, and that is with the military, not some civilian populace demanding specialty foods. Well since it is implied that the colonists would not be eating and bunking like a military crew.
And with all the air purifiers and such needed, that will dramatically cut into any cargo room you think you have.

Even professionals can have a dream to be part of something greater.
There is a very sharp limit of how many would even consider going, much less actually pull up roots and do so. And don't try to say alt says... This is canon talk here. If not. Stop posting about this, as you are going to do what you want to. This thread seems to be pointed at changing canon to fit your vision.

Question: was the entire armada for each clan sent on a mission to establish these bases or could we assume specialized units (similar to the Sea Bees in WW2) were used to establish these bases. Wouldn’t it be a little overkill to send all you units out to establish these bases before having to return at a set date so that they could then invade the IS.
Lack of knowledge of the clans? The warriors would absolutely be the first on the worlds to make sure any battle is done by them. They would leave the techs to do their work, with the exception of any garrison.
The HPG network was probably for running the worlds from the clan homeworlds, so the khans did not have to be in the IS.
Second off. They did NOT send all their units off. They sent what was bid in the assault and the security for the bases. Did you even bother looking at the clans and how they did this? Stuff like this makes me wonder.

So the clans can create a logistical chain from the Clan Home Worlds to the IS but the IS cannot create one from the IS to the end of the Deep Periphery?
Purpose is the key here.
First off, there is no end of deep periphery, with the exception of the edge of the galaxy. Second. There is no reason to have logistical supply lines heading out to where no one is at. Well not all at once. As humanity pushes out, then suppliers would form in a location to serve those looking at the area. I guess history proves this concept wrong, so it is invalid for making a point against the vision.
History repeats itself, but the warning isn't complete. More then a few know the issues of not knowing the past, but still do so, as they will not make the same mistakes. Comprehension of the past is the problem. I won't do this or that, but end up doing the same damned thing. Sometimes in a different way, but the same thing.
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