chez
06/24/05 12:04 PM
62.173.81.122
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Is it "realistic" that the Dragoons fought the DCMS forces to a standstill during the fourth Succession War?
I know author fiat plays a part in it but has anyone played out the battles. I think there is a scenario pack- has anyone used it.
The Dragoons are an elite force using some lostech but they are massively outnumbered.
What do people think?
chez
"In order to stab someone in the back it is first necessary to get right behind them" Sir Humphrey Appleby
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Karagin
06/25/05 12:20 AM
63.157.56.187
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During the battles of the DMCS vs Dragoons, no lostech beyond mechs like the Hoplite and Hornet and Flea, were used. The Dragoons didn't show their uber tech until well after the IS had it's own version.
I have been in a couple of the scenarios and they have normaly been even scenarios. None have been one sided. There were a couple I believe in the scenario pack More Tales of the Black Widow.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nightward
06/26/05 01:09 AM
203.206.17.165
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Totally realistic.
The Dragoons were probably the most elite fighting force circulating at the time, and the Ryuken they faced were an outfit they'd trained themselves.
They did win, but it was a victory that gutted both sides.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
06/26/05 02:05 AM
63.157.56.198
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Very true. The fighting put a big crimp in Jamie's plans and while it also allowed TPTB to use it as excuse to rearm them with Clan tech and what not, it was one of the more interesting moments of the history of BT. Heck I knew folks who were righting the Dragoons off after the 4th Sucession War.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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chez
06/29/05 10:03 PM
62.173.81.122
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I agree that as the Dragoons had trained the Ryuken it gave them a big advantage but also involved were the 17th , 5th and 21st Galedon Regulars plus the 8th Sword of Light and the 3rd Proserpina Hussars. They are just the units trying to eliminate the Dragoons prior to the 4th Succession war. When that kicked off more Kurita house units were thrown into the fray.
That the Dragoons could (and maybe should) win on Misery isn't in doubt but that they could fend off all-comers on that portion of the FS/DC border is more the question I was asking.
Especially as the Dragoons took 60% reduction in force on Misery.
Sure, they're Elite- but are they that Elite?
If the DCMS were serious about "Death to Mercenaries" surely they could have done better.
chez
"In order to stab someone in the back it is first necessary to get right behind them" Sir Humphrey Appleby
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Karagin
06/29/05 11:33 PM
63.157.56.51
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Dpends on how well and up to the TO&E the DCMS troops were. Sure on paper the Combine units could look really tough, but the actually strengths on the ground can widely differ.
Given that the fighting that was going on the Lyran border and the whole Bushido fighting code, things could still be in favor of the Dragoons and also the same code and thinking about these are just honorless mercs could have also played into HOW the Combine commanders went about their attacks on the Dragoons.
Also while the FS/DC border had it's share of battles the DCMS was focused on the Lyran border mostly and that was to them a bigger threat.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Kenjiro
07/01/05 02:11 AM
203.32.87.250
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I agree. Wolf's Dragoons would have used every trick in the book to win, where as the DCMS would have followed the tried and true method that their honour allowed. In Lethal Heritage, Hanse Davion is speaking to Victor, and he states that beating the DCMS was easy, as they always did the same thing and so were predictable, until Theodore changed their tactics/understanding of Honour. From all the stuff I have, this seems to be a correct assessment of the DCMS.
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Karagin
07/01/05 02:41 AM
63.157.57.26
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Which means that the operations against the Dragoons would have be run by men who wouldn't graspe the idea that chargnig forward INTO the guns of the Dragoons wasn't going to win the day unitl it was way to later for them to change tactics.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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chez
07/01/05 11:52 AM
62.173.81.122
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That is pretty much the answer I expected, after all the dragoons were the best the inner sphere had to offer.
So the next question is- If 10 DCMS Regiments against the Dragoons 5 was not enough how many would be?
I know this is an almost impossibly broad question to answer as it does depend on WHICH DCMS regiments but even green garrison troops would win given enough numbers.
Even if you were to "cherry pick" the best DCMS had to offer (sword of light etc) could they do it realistically. I think any victory could at best be described as "Pyrric" for either side.
If Hanse had known how stupid the Combine would be and how hard the Dragoons would fight could he have launched a Galahad style assault down the length of the Kurita border and had similar successes to the ones he enjoyed against CapCon. (I understand that the CapCon assault was 2-3 years in the making and logistics would be impossible but I'm talking what if)
The border had only been stable because AFFS and DCMS forces had been evenly matched with Davion gaining 5 elite regiments and Kurita losing the same 5 PLUS all the damage the Dragoons did during "Hegira". That must have meant a massive shift in the correlation of forces along the border and maybe led to the Chaos March being created in a different portion of space.
How would THAT affect BT history as we know it?
I was just typing as I was thinking but what a great alternate reality
Would the war of 3040 happen and if it did would Davion win?
How much easier would the Ghost Bear and Smoke Jaguar invasion corridor be?
Would Rasalhague be created?
Would Bulldog be launched from Steiner space?
Pie in the sky but a great concept 
Move over Harry Turtledove! 
chez
"In order to stab someone in the back it is first necessary to get right behind them" Sir Humphrey Appleby
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Karagin
07/01/05 11:26 PM
63.157.59.247
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Hanse could do it, but again the material needed would have been tight and any setbacks would stop the whole thing cold.
The fight against the Combine would have happen, given all the bad blood, IF the CapCon hadn't pulled the little dopplerganger game, which Hanse took as a personal attack on him and his family. The invasion like he did against the CapCon being done against the Combine would I think have given both sides a big bloody noes, while the FedSuns could have gotten similar results if they had the same amount of troops and supplies as the operation against the CapCon did. The end results being that the FedSuns have a longer border with Combine made up of all former Combine planets. Rasalhague might still happen since it would further draw things away and add one more crack in the Combine's social and political structure.
As for the Clan questions...hard to say they would even come back through that part, noting that they didn't come through the well weaken CapCon. As for a new Chaos March, no I dont' see that happening. But a longer drawn out guerrillia war I see happening on a lot of the former Combine planets.
The Dragoons could have been beat with better tactics and use of force as well as some control over the DCMS units by their commanders, but given the level of thingking and culturial bias against forigne/merc units things were stacked against the DCMS. IF you want to go with that still in the picture I would say an 18 to 1 or 21 to 1 advantage for the DCMS in both mech and vehicle units against the Dragoons.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Kenjiro
07/02/05 05:44 AM
203.32.87.250
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It is an interesting question. I am actually attempting to set up a campaign whereby the 4th Succession War will occur in 3 years time, and I looking at the possibility of Theodore being captured, rather than getting away. If the 4th Skye Rangers had taken along the support units, would it make a difference?
As to numbers required, I think 20 to 1 with the standard thinking of the DCMS. Most units would need to be Veteran or better, and the Dragoon's would have to have a little bad luck.
As to Hanse Davion hitting the DCMS instead of Capellan Confederation, if the LCAF forces again scared themselves pissless by their successes, then I could see the DCMS having been reduced in size by around 10%, but then the forces arrayed against the combined forces of FS and LCAF would have made it a slug fest. IF the Lyran's and the Feddies could combine without problems, then the DCMS could have been in desparate straits, with up to 25% of the stars lost before the slug fest. Unfortunately too many LCAF generals had no tactical/battle experience (social generals) and would never dream of allowing FS generals to lead their troops, so this scenario is probably not an option.
I dont see a change in the location of the Chaos marches, just an increase in the size, to include the stars taken from the DCMS. The Marches were always going to blow up, it was just a matter of time.
The war in 3040, probably would have occurred due to the bad blood between FS and DCMS, but there are a few variables that would need to be looked at. If Theodore was captured would the DCMS get Star League mechs from ComStar? Would ComStar still destroy one of their own Generators to force FS to allow them to garrison the HPG stations? With the loss of Theodore even if for only a couple of years, would the DCMS change its tactics in time to forestall another beating? Would Wolf's Dragoons help the FS to defeat the DCMS? Unfortunately with so many variables, it would be hard to tell whether or not Davion would have won. The BT history looks to have been written to keep as much as possible even, and so the merging of LCAF and FS was always going to fail. If the FS/LCAF forces were able to really hurt the DCMS, then I am sure the DCMS would have gotten what ever help it needed to balance out the states again.
As for the Clans, they appear to have been added just to help whittle down the Inner Sphere forces, and to force technological advancement. It also got rid of the loose end, of what happened to Kerensky. I expect the same results would have occurred, as any major deviation is not in the interest of the balanced BT history (I have seen nothing of the Dark Ages stuff, but from what I have read in these boards, it is a total screw up of the BT fiction).
I believe most of the other stuff would have gone as expected, as there would have been no major change in the strengths and weaknesses of most of the states, except that the CapCom would not have been so defeated.
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Thor_Mech
07/06/05 03:49 PM
138.67.15.85
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Another thing about the Dragoons taking apart Kuritan forces is morale. The Dragoons were pretty angry, and I think that green Kurita troops would probably break with enough firepower thrown at them.
"Even after all these years, walking through the ranks of 'Mechs still gives me the chills"
- Intelligence Secretary Justin Xiang Allard
Outreach, 21, Sept 3051
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Nimon
07/06/05 07:01 PM
63.120.82.166
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Actually DCMS units were some of the finest around for thier experience level. Their problem was that each general was competing with the others to gain more glory. This caused them to sometimes throw caution out the window as they tried to 'Avenge the Coordinators Honor'. This in turn made them reckless with thier forces which allowed Jamie to pick when and where his people would fight and when they would run. If the forces that were amassed against the Dragoons had some coordination between them and less competion the Dragoons would not have even made it out of Combine space.
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Nimon
07/06/05 07:10 PM
63.120.82.166
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I do not think that a push into combine space could have been achived. Remember almost 70% of the mercs and over 50% of the regular troops in the Fed Suns was in Cap Con space. This would leave very few (and even fewer elite) regiments free to exploit the foolish actions the coordinator did. The only thing that kept the Lyrans from rolling all over the Combine was that most of thier Generals were more interested in parades and establishing command and control, than pressing thier advantage that they were to slow to exploit opertunities which in turn allowed Combine forces to shift and offer more resistance. Not saying the Combine was better, just faster to react to the changing battlefield than their counterpart, which is one of the principles of modern warfare, mobility of forces.
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Karagin
07/06/05 11:49 PM
63.157.59.9
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DCMS units had their best and their worst, just like the other House militaries. Yes the Generals fought each other in sparring matches as who was better etc...all of these things including the Coorindator's inaction as well as meddling cause things to favor the Dragoons. And if you would note, Jamie picked the worlds he did since they were close to the FedSuns in case he had to jump the border.
Even with the Generals working together, it would still take numbers to match the skills of the Dragoons. The Combine isn't going to throw their best up against the Dragoons when things on the Lyran Front weren't fully under control, you might see 3 or 4 elite units mixed into the 15 to 20 units ordered to take out the Dragoons, but I doubt that would be enough for anything more the Phyrric victory in the end.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/06/05 11:54 PM
63.157.59.9
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You missed the point, the question seems to be take what happen to the CapCon and transpose it to the Combine, same forces attack the Combine from the FedSuns as were actually used to attack CapCon. That what he is asking. Flipping the invasion from one spot to another.
So no attack on the CapCon would take place in the 4th War, at least not as we know it to have happen.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/06/05 11:56 PM
63.157.59.9
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Most troops will break if hit with enough firepower, elite or green, if the lose of command and control go a unit or units will fall apart.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/07/05 10:25 AM
63.120.82.166
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There was a scenario in BATTLETROOPS that 7th commandos had to break into a ComStar facility to signal all Dragoon units to leave, and it stated in the scenario that Jamie knew if all the dragoons did not leave at the same time the stragglers would have been killed off, and he could not risk alerting the combine by taking time via normal courier. the Combine shut the city down and even put troops on the street to stop the Kommandos from getting into the facility (and failed obviously). This is what I meant. The Combine never trusted merchs and always had forces equal to the Dragoons on each world. If part of the Dragoons started to leave, you can bet the stragglers would have met fierce aerospace resistance as they tried to get to thier jump ships. that is why it has to be a Hyperpulse message and all Dragoons had to retreat about the same time.
as for on the Lyran front, yes the Lyrans did well. But according to the 4th succession war books I have read. they were not as successful as the Fed Suns thought they would be because their generals while willing to fight, lacked a lot of the more needed military stratagies to beat the Combine over a massive front. You have to admit that the DC was every match for the FS before the war, and the reason the LC was never pushed back was that they could out produce the DC with larger and more powerful weapons (not nessesaiarly the skills needed to exploit this advantage until after the merge of the 2 great houses)
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Nimon
07/07/05 10:36 AM
63.120.82.166
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I doubt that they would have had the same success vs the DC. While the Coordinator may have been lacking after the war started, his military was more than prepared for invasions from the FS, more so than CC (which is why the attacks started, military axiom is always eliminate the smaller threats first so you do not have a lot of little dogs nipping at your heels when you in the big fight). Also because the Chancellor was more insane hanse knew he would be less stable when the pressure was on and thus would make more mistakes. Also there were rifts in the CC even before the war started where as the combine along that front was united. the Dieron, Benjmian and Galdon Districts are some of the best the Combine has to offer (in comparrison to the Dieron of the time). And they have had many active skirmishes along that front. Another thing people do not remember is that Hanse did 6 military manvers before the big invasion. the first manuver on the CC front put them on high state of readiness, the next exercise was on the DC front which was also meet whith high readiness. the 3rd was back on the CC front which was not meet with as much anticipation. The 4th was back on the DC front which again meet high readiness, thenback to the CC fromt to a medium leevl of readiness, back to the DC at a high state, and then back to CC for the invasion. Being a military state high state of readiness was already incorporated into the Combines Imperial expenses. CC being a less military state had to pay for the higher state of readiness which lead to the lower and lower state each exercise. Thing is Hanse took a big gamble as each time he did his exersices he put the FS further and further into the red, he had to go to war to get a lot to resources to replenish his coffers. LC also did similar manuvers but not to the same scale as the FS. (Of course we all know LC could be at high readiness for ever with thier economy). This also is why limited success was meet on that front as reniforcement units were in position to reinforce worlds where the advance was stalled.
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Karagin
07/07/05 11:18 AM
63.157.234.4
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Forces equal to the Dragoons, don't mean elite units babysitting merc units. It means that the forces combined on the planet would roughly be the same size of the merc unit. Noting here that means milita and police as well as military units.
The Combine isn't going to park elite units on all the worlds they have merc, that is something even the most hidebound general or military thinker isn't going to do since the elite troops would be needed to stiffen areas that the enemy has broken through at or is about to or to launch counter attacks of their own.
You are again missing the what if part of this, the 4th War happens with the FedSuns attack the Combine instead of the CapCon. The same forces used in the canon attack on the CapCon would be there for use on the Combine. Adding in the Lyran attacks to this, it doesn't matter how bad or successful they are, they tie up troops and thus the Combine can't react to the attacks made by the FedSuns.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/07/05 11:27 AM
63.157.234.4
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There were and still are rifts in the Combine and I think Hanse would have used the infighting among the higher ranking Combine generals and warlords to his advantage. Given all that went into the CapCon invasion I think if Hanse had stayed focused on the Combine as he was up till the whole dopplenganger deal, then similar actions as we saw happen against the CapCon via the Justin Allard adventures and other spy/covert actions would have happen and while the Combine might have put up a stiffer fight, they would have been fighting on two fronts, and even if the Lyrans never attacked they Combine couldn't afford to pull troops from that border since they still might. Toss in the FedSun and the Lyrans causing the Rasalhauge groups to rise up and attack the DCMS units in their space would add further issues the DCMS would have to deal with. Then groups similar to the Black Dragons and others, would make their own moves and IF events are still similar where Jamie throws the swords at the feet of the Coordinator on Terra and he still has the heart attack, mild or not, then good old Takashia isn't at his full prime and thus he's not running the day to day leadership of the military.
So similar events could happen, while not on as large or as impressive as the canon events in the CapCon, I think the Suns could have pushed through the Combine's Terran Corridor worlds and linked up with their Lyran allies thus giving them the needed link.
Now the question comes up, would this scare Mairk and Laio in to attacking both the Suns and Commonwealth or would they be to afraid to attack?
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/07/05 01:28 PM
63.120.82.166
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I know about not having Elite troops there. What I said was tehy had equal forces (the combine never trusted mercs completely)
As far as the attacks. again look at the Cap Con Military vs DC military. They have fewer units, so the attack by the FS looked impressive because they had over whelming forces. It would not have been so on the DC front as they have more mech regiments along the Fed Suns. Also as I have stated every time FS brought more forces in region DC reacted by increased Military rediness which would have done much to hamper any assaults. Most of the Liao worlds fell before they knew they were being invaded as most aerospace assets were on the ground on phase 1.
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Nimon
07/07/05 01:33 PM
63.120.82.166
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No, dispite the interal rife of the warlords they maintained loyalty to the Coordinator if nothing else out of fear. Also Hanse had to keep the invasion on the Cap Con side, else he would have lost his Curius March to the Govonor over there (I forget his name) who was making deals with the Cap Con people. The invasion allowed hanse to keep more of his loyal troops in the area and thus prevent any move for power against New Avalon. Hanse knew the Draconis March was solidly loyal to him, just the other side was a place where the civil unrest was growing. You can not leave that out of the equation as Both hanse and Katrina had internal problems just not on the same scale as Cap Con. And while DC had internal rivalies none would dare go against the Coordinator outside his own family (Theodore). At least that is what I gathered in all the house books I have read.
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Karagin
07/07/05 04:06 PM
63.157.58.184
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You are fogetting that all of the powers had gotten use to the FedSuns little military excerisies so any rise of troops would have be something they wouldn't have reacted to in a major way, yes they might move some troops in but they won't be able to match all of the numbers since the Lyrans would be moving troops as well.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/07/05 04:11 PM
63.157.58.184
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Noting that, but the question here has nothing do with the CapCon, if you check the canon history PRIOR to the relase of the novels via the House Books, everything was pointing to a major war between the Combine and Suns. Then things switched to the CapCon after Sword and Dagger came out. The question raised here in the what if is asking you and the rest of us to forgo the CapCon, and look at thing from that point of view.
IF you have read the house books you would have seen that the Combine and Suns were more then ready to bashed heads UNTIL the PTB changed things to have the Cappies as bad guys.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/07/05 04:57 PM
63.120.82.166
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Yes, I know. And for the longest time FASA was not sure which way they wanted to go with the FS/DC war as all but one boarder war in the past had been DC gets inital gains followed by FS pushing them back. Both sides knew how the other thought and made war.
Now to the point of both LC and FS troops hitting DC. It has been brought up many times in the past. Biggest problem with that is. you need at least 5 to 1 advantage to take and hold ground. That is a military axiom. The Defender always has an advantage vs an attacker in a straight up fight. Force multipliers are from deception and the like. Assuming that both sides have compitent commanders DC would be able to dig in and 'Hold the line' long enough for the FS to have its own internal strife. According to the house book all the regional commander of the Cirius March (again I forget his name) needed was for Hanse to be bogged down in a war for him to make his move for power. It was also noted in the book that Hanse knew that this was going to happen (and after the 4th succession war that gov lost a lot of political clout and was assassinated by a 'Capallen' assassin). If Hanse had a bulk of his forces tied up in a war his flank would have been exposed to this person who never hid his ambitions for power. Hanse was smart by putting the bulk of his troops in that area because if this Gov. tried to start an uprising the troops are already there and already mobilized for war. the Draconis March was strong enough to stall any DC attack that might have happened, and with the Dragoons switching sides to FS just ensured that that boarder was secure from the Dragons reach.
To the Lyran side. There were many in the Lyran High Court that were very opposed to the idea of war with the DC (notably Skye District which was 1/3 of the DC boarder) as they did not support Hanses dream of expansion and his grab for 1st Lord. Also a good number of the Generals did not want to war with DC all out because they were fearful of the FWLM (at the time probably wrongly but that is a matter of speculation). Many made the point that they might grab many DC poor worlds only to lose many rich LC worlds to FWLM. That is why the push by LC was no where near the same intensity as FS was into CC.
Knowing this if FS and LC attacked DC they would have had good inital gains but vs a militaristic society like DC was they would get bogged down and have thier units tied up. CC was always a very opertinistic house and they would have invaded FS lightly garrisoned world in the chance to regain their former homeworlds taken long ago. FWLM could have done the same thing and took a few worlds from the lyrans but I doubt that they would have done much more than what they did in the 4th Succession War, but the morale boost is Marik would have needed to unite more of the splintered groups together.
Also do not forget the ComStar interdiction that was imposed on FS, against a larger more agressive House (not the shattered CC) many of thier forces would have been isolated and easily destroyed once they were stalled out. In fact CC started making a good showing vs FS units once the Interdition was impossed, but lacked the military to exploit it totally.
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Karagin
07/07/05 05:58 PM
65.140.156.51
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Good point on the ComStar interdiction, that would have monkeyed everything Hanse did on the Combine border.
I see your points, and yes the fighting would have been brutal and stalemating sooner rather then later. But I do think a combined effort by the LC and the FS could have gotten them the Derion area for certain and a few other worlds along the border, tossing in the Raselhauge rebellion and the Combine could still pull back and readjust faster at that point then the LC and FS could. End results would be a linked FedCom that would be over extendted and hard pressed to defend what it got. The Combine, I don't would have fallen in the shambles that CapCon did. I see it being hurt and hurt bad but not falling apart. Theodore wasn't as wacky as Laio's kids so that would be their saving grace.
Now the War of 3039 or 3045, could have been against the CapCon and might have turned out as the canon one versus the Combine. Or Hanse could have tried again to take on the Dragon. Still the results would have very interesting to see.
I wonder if ComStar would have moved faster to support the Combine then it did to help out the CapCon...
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nightward
07/07/05 07:54 PM
202.161.15.111
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I really doubt it. For a start, Kanrei Theodore Kurita was heading up the Lyran Allaince border; he's shown in the past that Field Marshall Nondi Steiner and Frederick Steiner (the best military leaders on the Lyran side) can't hope to equal his strategy.
Also, he had access to the Legions of Vega, Alshain Regulars, and would have used the Pesht District as mobile reserves. The Genyosha were also in the area. Given the Lyran Alliance's poor record against units like those, Theodore would have at least stymied their advance, if not beaten them back.
Also, the Draconis Combine enjoys a very good relationship with ComStar during this time, evidenced by the Guard's sale of SLDF 'Mechs to the Combine. The appearance of such vintage machines caused a number of problems during the War of 3039 for invading units. If the Lyran Alliance had acted in concert with the Federated Suns, ComStar would have either mobilised the Guard (Operation Scorpion early) or convinced the Free Rasalhague Republic to reinforce the Combine's flank.
Meanwhile, the Davion border would have been, for the most part, a shambles. What happens along it would have depended on how soon Theodore could tie down the Lyrans (he could have then left the Operational Area under the command of the Genyosha) and what his father would allow him to do.
I think a push on both sides would have caused the DCMS to adopt the Tiger and Phoenix programs much more swiftly, because they would have been immediately neccessary to turn the tide. With the additional military power granted to the Kanrei, his reforms would have occurred much more swiftly, probably resulting in more units structured like the Legion of Vega or the Amphigean Light Assualt Groups.
Also, with the forces described here, the Lyran Alliance and Federated Suns would leave themselves unguarded. Five gets you ten that the Free Worlds League launches a major offensive on the Lyran Alliance- they'd have been waiting for a shot like that for years. Also, the Federated Suns' greatest weapon, Justin Xiang Allard, would not be deployed against the Combine.
In the end, the Draconis Combine might loose some worlds along its border marches, but would quickly repel the invaders.
Of course, in an altered timeline like that, the entire Inner Sphere is screwed come the Clan Invasion- because there's no Anastasius Focht. It's also doubtful that the Free Rasalhague Republic would have stood so long without his aegis...
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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chez
07/07/05 08:29 PM
62.173.81.122
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The Comstar interdiction was only imposed due to Precentor Dieron ( I can't remember her name) feeding information to the FS that Sarna was weak. She did this as she had forced Julian Tiepolo into drawing a line in the sand at Sarna. Whether she could have achieved this if the assault had fallen on the DC is doubtful as she had an obvious vested interest.
The key point is that the Dragoons were guarding a decent stretch of the border and when they switched sides not only did the DCMS lose them but the damage done to all combine units thrown at them from surrounding systems left a dirty great hole in Combine defences. We are talking approx 15 regiments either destroyed or severely depleted. That is a massive portion of frontline units MIA/KIA.
Now when you start adding in the forces that were used in the CC invasion:-
Davion heavy,light medium and assault Guards
8 Crucis lancer Regs
Plus all the Draconis March forces (who were by and large better troops than those on the CC border ) you've got a really serious force who are going to get at least 2 "free" waves of attack until the DCMS can reposition itself to "repel boarders". then what you've got is a proper showdown - The Fox versus Theodore without Comstar interference.
I'd buy a ringside seat
Also if the AFFS move quickly they could save more of the Dragoons adding to their own forces and further weakening the DC.
In a previous thread we looked at could the FS gone further into the CC and I believe the answer was "YES" due to the CC troops were nearing the point of collapse. If the AFFS did drop multiple regiments into this huge hole in Combine defences and push on could the DC start to fold especially as any troops thrown into the fray would either be green garrison troops or forces pulled from the Lyran border (not an attractive option given the fighting there).
Could we have even seen Warlords thinking "We are going down here. Should i keep my troops and create the Greater Kingdom of Pesht or whatever"
This is all speculative but I like what ifs 
chez
"In order to stab someone in the back it is first necessary to get right behind them" Sir Humphrey Appleby
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Karagin
07/08/05 12:11 AM
63.158.169.182
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You are assuming that Theodore makes it off of Vega, he wasn't running anything until later on in the war AFTER getting off of Vega.
So while he might be able to pull the Combine's nuts out of the fire, I don't think it would happen very fast and meanwhile the Combine is still stuck with hidebound warlords and officers who won't change their thinking even when faced with defeat. We saw this enough even when the Clans invaded in the canon history.
I doubt ComStar would have pulled it's ace card number two aka the ComGuard until after all three sides had bloodyed themselves to the point of stalemate. The only card I see ComStar play is the Raselhague one, mainly since it foreces the Lyrans to give up gains. The main thing they could do was give aid to the Combine and the Interdiction.
As for the FWL doing anything, maybe, but ONLY if Lyrans suffer massive defeats and are totally routed back into Stiener space. The FWL was mess at this time and the Mairks had their hands full dealing with that mess. CapCons might get some grand ideas but even then they might be limited.
Overall if the same force is thrown at the Derion region of Combine space as was thrown at the CapCon, I can see that falling and being held by the combined forces of the FS and LC.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nightward
07/08/05 01:04 AM
202.161.15.111
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I dunno. I think an early decleration of war would have forced the reconciliation earlier. One of the major factors was that the Dragon had to stand united. Also, if things kick off right after the wedding on Earth, the Combine would have to turn to the Kanrei- Takashi was recovering from a stroke.
The FWL wasn't going too badly; certainly enough to cause trouble to the rear. If the CCAF came to the party with a moderate amount of brainpower and attacked the Lyran Commonwealth, they'd be forced to pull line units out to defend the rear. With Rasalhague protecting so much of the flank, the Dragon, meanwhile, could afford to go light-on in that area. No-one would ever threaten Pesht, but those troops aren't real flash, either.
Best-case scenario for the FedCom would have been a push across the base of the Combine, taking down the Chaos Marches and forming a bridge through the Terran Corridoor. Potentially they could lop off a heavily populated area of space and strengthen their own borders, but a solid advance line would not happen.
A situation like that would also lead to an en masse deployment of the Sword of Light. Personally, I'd favour a round trip through Periphery space to attack behind enemy lines.
Essentially, the Lyran side isn't going to change much. Hanse might be able to expand his Deiron March or lop off the base of the Combine, but not both. And either way, he's going to run up against some seriusly unimpressed and highly motivated DCMS troopers, which always proves a lethal combination.
He never would have been able to do to the DCMS what he did to the CCAF. Hanse was good, but he wasn't Anastasius' equal. And Anastasius got the beat-down from Theodore...
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
07/08/05 01:48 AM
63.158.169.182
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That is what I was suggesting from the start, the LC and FS take out the Derion area and systems towards Terra, thus allowing them to link up. And while things might not fully change on the LC side if the Raselhauge card is played there will be enough units tied down that the Combine will still be hard pressed to do more then stalemate the FS and then hold the line. IF things heat up again in 3039 and the DC get's ComStar help with the mechs and weapons and possible troops then maybe they can push the FedCom back.
And while things might have thawed for Theo and his father, it wouldn't have happen until after he got off of Vega and made it to where he could conveince his father to allow him to be in charge.
Even if the Sword of Light units get tossed into the battle they can't be at more then one place at any given time. The trip through Periphery is a great idea, but given that it would be a very dangerous route and long under taking would more then likely cause the Combine High Command to dismiss it as fanasty.
The FWL and CapCon could be a rear area threat, but they wouldn't do much unitl they are both sure the LC and FS can't respond and are totally focused on the DC.
Fredrick Steiner, went on the mission he did, to atone for his actions against Katherine, Theo defeat his troops yes, but that seem more like he planned it so the Loki agents could do their dirty work to the Jumpships and Dropship Theo was gathering. So while the end results was his getting captured, it all worked to his militaries advantage and cleaned his record in Katherines eyes.
Foche, aka Freddy Stiener learned from his mistakes, just as Hanse did from his successes to some point and as did Theo. Thus three of them were able to revamp their respected groups and get more out of them. That is really all they did.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nightward
07/08/05 03:03 AM
202.161.15.111
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Except that Frederick knew nothing about the Loki agents; he tells Theodore that at the end of the Warrior trilogy. He's just as surprised by their presence as Theodore is, and he's worried by their presence as well, because he fears Theodore won't accept his surrender.
Katherine and Melissa knew about the assasins; presumably Nondi did as well.
Since the CC and FWL are members of the Concord of Kapteyn, watching the FedCom go after the Combine would definately spur them into action; the Combine is the only card they can really play as a trump; in the event of a combined offesive, the Combine would be some sort of threat to the FedCom. They let the CapCon fall without comment because realistically, the Confederation couldn't hold its end of the bargain. Appeasement and ignoring the problem were better options strategically.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
07/08/05 10:27 AM
63.157.59.186
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And some how the CapCon is going to be able to much of anything in the alternate timeline we are talking about, they are just as impotent here as in canon.
The FWL was being messed with big time by Hanse and the MIII and didn't have the time to go after anyone in a major way. Sure they could grab one or two worlds but that's it.
So the Combine's two allies are great on paper, but fail to even measure up for the real fight. No I think it be the LC/FS against the DC and ComStar might step into help the Combine, if it doesn't Waterly will try to help via covert means or she might launcher little coups in the ComStar political forum sooner rather then later.
Freddy might not have know everything, but do recall he volunteered to go on the suicede mission to try and blunt the Combine's attack all because he woke up to the fact he was being fooled by his uncle and his uncle's grab for power.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/08/05 10:48 AM
63.120.82.166
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One thing you forget about the Swords, they have no reguard for populations that they can not control (Kentares IV anyone). I think if the Swords and DEST got involved Hanse would have had a mess worse than what we see going on today. Not saying Hanse could not take those worlds, but as the clanners found out the citizens of the Combine (for the most part) were loyal to the coordinator and the combine and terror acts would be abound. This was not as prevenent in CC as they are not such a tight bound society like DC (based on Feudal Japan and remember how the US was lery of invading the homelands of Japan)
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Nimon
07/08/05 10:52 AM
63.120.82.166
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Karagin you gorget one of the best units Cap Con had that Hanse has never been able to beat, Macs Armored Cav. Imagine 5 merc regiments knowing they can trounce through FS spaces with little resistance..oh wait it was done once by them and it caused the Prince at that time tons of political headache. Startagy wise the romp did nothing, politically it gave the opponents of prince at that time fuel and headaches. I could see the chancellor letting them romp again in that area which would have caused problems to the prince especially if FS forces invading DC got bogged down.
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Karagin
07/08/05 11:29 AM
63.157.59.186
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To some extent I am sure that DEST and ISF could indeed stir the population up and get them to be a royal pain to the FS. But even so that will sooner or later wear thin and things will quite down.
There was a lot of "gureillia" fighting on former CapCon words for a while and then they stopped, and came back with help from the CapCon. So something like that could be done here as well.
The Swords I think would held to prevent a major strike on say Luithen, not saying that would happen. Hanse would have it as a goal but I think he would be going more a link up with the LC and then a buffer zone between that the rest of the Combine. Having not looked a detailed map, books are currently packed, I say they would rougly 50 worlds total between the LC and FS. That is after Rasulhague card being played, if that doesn't get played I say maybe 15 more worlds. As for there holding all 65, no, more like half that, with main ones being around Derion and other former TH worlds.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/08/05 02:01 PM
63.120.82.166
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I doubt the combine would have let Ras leave though if it was invaded though. Ras was done as a move to give DC more time to reform its military and not have such a large boarder to defend. The only reason Ras was let go was that DC wanted a boarder that woud be a minor threat so it could concentrate its forces on the FS enemy they knew would be coming. If FS already invaded there would be no need to let RS go as the boarders would have been at a stable state at that time (i.e. armies moved as far as they could while maintaining support and supply lines.
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Nightward
07/08/05 08:07 PM
203.206.26.140
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CapCon =/= Draconis Combine.
In the CapCon, unless you are a Citizen you belong to an underclass. If you can't speak Manadarin, ditto. The CapCon had a long history of brutalising its populace. Whilst there was some guerilla activity, it was sponsored by the Mask and carried out by a broken and disillusioned people.
Now let's have a lok at the Combine, which instills incredible levels of devotion in its troops and citizens. Which has the second-best intelligence apparatus in the Inner Sphere (after ROM). Which has a much more skilled, motivated, and equipped defence arm than the CapCon.
I sort of doubt that the Confederation would have lost as many worlds as you suggest the Combine would have- and the Confederation was a hollow opponent. Its intelligence service was run by a Davion spy. Its people frankly welcomed the AFFS, figuring they might have a better chance with them. Revisionist history where the CapCon turns into an all-conquering juggernaut whose lost people beg it to return are an invention of a later time.
Further, if the CapCon and FWL are so insignificant, why garrison the borders at all? That makes no sense.
Only units from the border and the interior of a Successor State can be deployed; the Border Marches still have to be manned (I'd say over-manned, to minimise the threat and damage of an attack).
The DCMS, meanhile, strips the Alshain and Pesht Districts. The Dragon's Claws would form early. Yorinaga Kurita would not face down Morgan Kell. And so on and so forth.
Even in the War of 3039, where the FedCom didn't have to worry about anything else, that many worlds did not change hands.
The Sword of Light would be committed early, likely against the Davion Guard. Fighting on their home turf, I seriously doubt that the Davion Guard would be able to defeat the Sword- which would then go on a rampage. Luthien is far enough away from the lines that the only time in the Combine's history where it was invaded was when the Clans tried it. A FedCom push isn't going to get anywhere near the Black Pearl.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
07/08/05 09:16 PM
63.157.59.40
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You are forgetting that BOTH the LS and the FS would be going after the Combine given their alliance. So the DC getting rid of the Rasulhague District would give them less of a border, able to pull troops back and readjust things as they did in the cannon history and then they could use those troops to either try and push back the FS or stop them cold.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/08/05 09:24 PM
63.157.59.40
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I never said this would be a cake walk for the FS. I said IF they focus on the Derion section as the main thrust, they could take that. Thus linking up with the LC. Meanwhile the Combine could counter everything by pulling the Raelhague card thus rendering the LC gains mute and thus free up troops
The fighting would have been bloody and brutal, but again you are going with things of the Combine being ready for the FS, while they might play tick for tat, no one was expect a war in 3028 but Hanse and Katherine. Giving the Combine all the goodies they AFTER TPTB at the time changed the focus to the CapCon then sure they can beat just about anyone but seeing how they don't have all the cool toys and have other issues like oh let's see, die hard Bushdio thinking that if you are not with the program you are against it. The idea that a Combine citizen wasn't second class, read the House Kurtia book again, the ISF and police kept a tight control on everything, media was censored, press was censored etc...the Combine was just as tough on it's populace as the CapCon was.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nightward
07/09/05 10:34 PM
203.173.16.118
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Maybe the CapCon and DC are harsh on their citizens. IMO, there's not much difference between Japan now and the Combine of BT, though.
Difference is that the Combine's attempts are successful. They're xenophobic, they're fanatically devoted to the Combine, and they don't want anyone else's culture imposed on them.
The results are different, even if you think the methods aren't.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
07/09/05 11:09 PM
63.157.234.106
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The results are the same, an opressed population, even if they stay loyal to the state, doesn't mean they will fight on against the enemy. Sooner or later it comes down to this, support the rebels and be killed or maybe killed if turn them in.
IF the Suns can hold the planets for as long as they did CapCon worlds in canon history, then maybe we wouldn't see fantical stance of the population, but we might still see some hold outs here or there. And the Combine has enough cracks in it's culture and population to cause trouble if pushed just right, hence the Rasglehauge and their drive for independance, and the Black Dragons and the other groups running around the Combine.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/09/05 11:14 PM
63.157.234.106
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This is true they could do it again, but is Maximillian willing to risk it? He still has the FWL to worry about and while not that well defended the Suns will still have some decent troops on their CapCon border.
I could see this happening only if Max feels that he can get away with it and not have any thing bad happen in return. It's possible he could let this happen if or when ComStar slams the FS with the Interdiction, that would be the best time frame for him to unleash the MAC and let them have at it. But I think if he does, then the War of 39 might see the Suns going after him instead of finishing the Dragon off. Ironic twist there when you think about the canon history and who Hanse went after in 39.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/09/05 11:16 PM
63.157.234.106
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Thought I would say excellent topic and one that has pushed some new life into this place.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/11/05 10:53 AM
65.240.118.50
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If this is true (Citizens not fighting vs a incoming army) why did the citizens of the Combine cause so many headaches to the clan invaders? Its because of that feudal mentality that has been breed into them. Maybe the immediate boarder systems would not be as fanatical, but the farther you get from the edge the more troops you have to use to garrison with. THAT is why I say LC and FS could not have taken and held the dieron district. That district alone would tie down so many troops it would cause the defenses else where to suffer. A perfect example is Iraq currently. Militarily we beat the army there. But because of the soft hand of rebuilding we are facing huge underground fighting. This in turn is tieing up a lot of troops and this is a small county, imagine entire WORLDS like this, it would easily tie up entire combat groups, once the groups are tied up, the actuall forces can flank and attack supply lines.
As Night has said earlier, the DC people were devoted to the combine unlike the Cap Con people (of that time). It would be easy for ISF agents to get the people to fight, perform sabatage, poison food and water, disrupt command, control, and supply lines. You shuold refrence back to Japan of WWII and the trouble marines had rooting a few japanesse inf off islands and that they could never let them get back there as they would hold up again for years and years (some are still found eevn today 60+ years after the war).
even with both FS and LC attacking I doubt they would have gotten what FS captured from Cap Con, and I am sure that they would have been mired there for years upon years which would have given thier political opponents (Hanse and Katrina's) fuel to cause them all sorts of headaches back home.
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Greyslayer
07/11/05 10:54 AM
216.14.198.54
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Quote:
Maybe the CapCon and DC are harsh on their citizens. IMO, there's not much difference between Japan now and the Combine of BT, though.
Difference is that the Combine's attempts are successful. They're xenophobic, they're fanatically devoted to the Combine, and they don't want anyone else's culture imposed on them.
The results are different, even if you think the methods aren't.
This is a view held by the more central planets around luthien and deeper. Many of the planets in that corridor and along the border have changed hands many times and have always been considered by both sides as dubious in support. This is supported by how easily the chaos march rejected rule by Kurita even though some of those planets were the same xenophobic ones you talked of.
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Nimon
07/11/05 10:54 AM
65.240.118.50
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Max hated Hanse more than Janos. If the boarder on FS space (which was once Cap Con space) was lightly garrisoned I can make a safe bet that his forces would have tested and taken worlds.
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Greyslayer
07/11/05 11:01 AM
216.14.198.54
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Forgetful are we not? Think Justin Xiang .... how much doubt could he put into the CC machine from that position to stall or forewarn the davion troops making it look like more troops on the border than there really was? Unless the MAC was given a freehand they would be gutted with further subtefuge from JX.
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Nimon
07/11/05 02:14 PM
65.240.118.50
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When units are warring its hard to hide where your troops are.
Also, the Northwind Highlanders were just waiting to go back home. If even the hint of that area being garrisoned by lesser units might have spurred them into action. That is 5 battle mech regiments that turned to Davion with the promise to return home. The Highlanders shown they were a match for the well trained forces of Davion. People forget how many units surrendered or turned to Davion which allowed his forces to keep pushing while not having to garrison rear worlds. Whould not have been so easy on the other front where the military (even those of questionable loyalty) will fight and few if any will turn to the other side.
Edited by Nimon (07/11/05 02:20 PM)
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Nightward
07/12/05 12:12 AM
202.161.8.213
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Yeah. I think everyone's defended their arguments as well as possible, and that they were reasonable points of view. However, we forget to take into accont a major factor:
Author Fiat. The FedCom was the favoured child of the authors back in the day. Frankly, the DCMS would have done well fictionally if they didn't collapse before the MITEY HANSE DAVION!i! and his military machine. In novels... likely, the DCMS would have done something like kentares again, galvanising the AFFC into something resembling Kail Allard-Lio crossed with Galahad. The Combine would be annihilated.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
07/12/05 06:16 AM
63.157.58.75
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Maybe maybe not. I am still trying to figure out why the powers that were at the time changed the setting away from the Combine to the Cappies.
As you said author fiat plays a role as well, and given that the Combine had been getting as much book (novel) time as the FedSuns one would have thought they would have run with it as it was written via the House books and the ohter info out there. But then again FASA never could seem to figure out what one hand was doing over the other.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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chez
07/13/05 09:34 PM
62.173.81.122
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Funny how some good topics come out of idle speculation.
Remember it's the posters (us) who make a good topic. More power to us!!
Looking forward to the next thread.
Also , you'll have to forgive the fact that I don't post often as work and stuff gets in the way
chez
"In order to stab someone in the back it is first necessary to get right behind them" Sir Humphrey Appleby
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Karagin
07/14/05 06:48 PM
63.157.57.79
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Frontier worlds as Greyslayer pointed out change hands yearly in some case, so those folks are less likely to be willing to die unless something like another Kentares happens or the FS does something really stupid.
The core worlds where no one has really attack in a century or more are less likely to be quick to fight, sure they maybe loyal and support the state, but when it comes down to it they are more worried about themeselves and their families, the state be damn.
Transposing WW2 Japan on to the Combine is like tryin to say the FedSuns is the US/UK of the same time frame. It doesn't work. The citizens of the Combine knew what they could and could not do, they didn't know all the truths about the wars they were asked to fight nor did they have outside info coming in since the Combine controled the media just as tightly as the CapCon and others.
And if you would note the folks that stood up to the Clans, where the outcaste and trouble makers that ALL the Houses have, so it wasn't the common citizens, it was the criminals and the renegades who fought back. Noting that the Bears and Jaguars held and still hold Combine worlds for 20 years now in the case of the Bears and it took the Combine landing mercs and SL units as well as reinvading their former holdings to get the populace to do anything.
SM Stirling in his Draka books gives an interesting point on this topic here, two Russians are talking about whether or not they should help the Draka fight the Germans or attack the Germans themselves without helping the Draka paratroopers, the Russian girl says that while they might drive out the Germans they will be trading one master for another, and while at first they will be fighting for Russia and their way of life, they will end up as nothing but bandits hunted down and turned in by the very people they are trying to save, because those people will come to fear them and thus feel it's better to live under the rule of the Draka then to have to rebuild everytime the rebels/partisans come out to try and get supplies etc...so the bottom line some will fight, others will shrug their shoulders and go on as if nothing happen and still pay taxes and life goes on.
IF the FS and the LC both aim their main drives through the Derion area I think they could have easily netted that and about 10 world up and down the rest of the border. Now if they focus on the Derion sector and then let the LC go forward as they actually did, then I still think the Combine would lose the Derion area and the would have to play the Rasulehauge card to mute and neuter the over all gains that the FS and LC would make.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/15/05 11:02 AM
65.240.118.50
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Your very focused on the Dieron District. the question is, with the Fed Suns military over in combine space, how many worlds would have fell to Max? Is if far more crazy than the coordinator, and any gains would have spurred him to take more worlds (after all Max loathed Hanse). Would Hanse survive the political termoil of losing more Fed Sun worlds to the Cap Con than he gained from the Drac Combine? And if Hanse fell from grace it would have cased a lot of other up heavals (the Fed Suns was from what I read the most voilitle of the political structures where pretenders to the throne popped up more often than hurricanes running through the gulf of mexico).
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Karagin
07/15/05 12:38 PM
63.157.58.154
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You are forgettting one thing, UP to the releasing of the novels Sword and Dagger and the Warrior Triology, CapCon wasn't high on Hanses list of things to deal with.
I doubt the Cappies would even attack the Suns unless they were 100% sure they could keep what they took, they might raid a few worlds but that is it. The CapCon was prior to the shift in focus of the Davion military machine and after a paper tiger waiting to be burned.
And yes I am focused on the Dieron District, because it makes sense for the Suns to drive through that area to link up with the Commonwealth, thus giving them their Terran Cooridor.
And ALL of the IS Houses have pretenders popping up all of the time, so it's not just a Davion thing.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/15/05 05:53 PM
65.240.118.50
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BUt your forgetting taht Max was mad. He thought he had more and better troops than he actually had. And if hanse went at the Dieron district (which I looked up had as many mech regiments as the cap con had so the same forces would have been needed so he would have had to use the same amount of regiments and he did not know of the wolf defeection until after the war started) that would have left the Cappellan and Cirius Marches seiously undermanned and remember the biggest opponent to Hanse was in the Cappellan March. leaving him to his own devices while in a major war (i.e. your troops are not in the theater) would have set hanse up for a coup possibly and Hanse I know had to know of Sandavols intention to replace him as Prince.
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Karagin
07/15/05 08:32 PM
63.157.56.126
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Max may have been mad, but he still had to worry about the FWL. As well as his own allies in side of the CapCon. Hanse on the other hand would be attacking the main threat to his relam, it was the Combine NOT the CapCon that ALMOST made it to New Avalon, it was the Combine that had been a major thorn in the side of the Suns since both nations meet. So going after the Combine would be the smart move. Yet that didn't happen, the Powers there were in charge at the time changed things, Max wasn't shown as being nuts in the Novel Sword and Dagger, so that is something that came LATER on.
Yes the Cappellan march wasn't run by someone who was 100% loyal, but let's use your arguement of the folks there being loyal to the state, they wouldnt be thrilled to see that they are now part of the CapCon via a coup and would more then likely fight to remain part of the Suns. I am sure that Hanse would have taken measures to make sure that Hasek couldn't do much damage and Sandrvol would be thrilled that Hanse was seeing the light and going after the Dragon as it should been years before.
The attack on the Combine could have happen and mix it would the Lyrans attacking as well on their own border, the Combine was on it's own. Cappies aren't going to be an issue and while they migth attack, Max would have to worry about the FWL and other internal issues like his son.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/18/05 01:29 PM
65.240.118.50
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If you read the books closely, the Capellan March govoner was in bed with Max, so it is completely beliveable that a large block lke that would make a push to take over the throne of New Avalon. The reason he and his Sirtius Fusilers were behaved was because there were so many loyal forces in his theater.
I still belive that Hanse had to hit the Cap Con, reason being he was bankrupting his empire. He needed something to get his peoples morale back up and behind him solidly. Easiest path to do that is to win a major war. To win a major war you have to ensure that you can take everything swiftly and you are not bogged down. Hanse took 1/3 - 1/2 the Cap Con worlds, wrecked thier military and ensured he had time to consolidate his new gains. Vs the Dragon who has more depth to thier empire, a greater ability to counter attack (the Pesht district which is basically protected on all sides and thus a huge reserve force in comparrison) who would keep the war going for much much longer demoralizing the Davion population as they are bogged down in a long war thus draining the economy more. Stiner would have had about the same gains (not much) as no forces were sent over in that area to reinforce for the most part. So the Arguement to Steiner helping the Davion push would not have been that great (plus Skye the district opposite Dieron on the Steiner side hates Davion which could have caused probelms that way also). Hanse had no idea that the Dragoons were going to leave DC, so he had to assume that he would be also facing those 5 elite regiments also in his planning. With all that Cap Con was the better of the two choices.
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Karagin
07/18/05 07:13 PM
63.157.58.88
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Okay so you support the canon events, again this about the Suns going after Combine...we know the outcome of the CapCon attack, so the discussion shifts things to the other major threat to the Suns, the Combine.
If you read the sourcebooks, you will note that things have the Suns and the Combine on a collision course, yet when the novels come out the focus shifts to the CapCon, that has never been explained by anyone at FASA or FP. Also nothing is stopping Hanse from still sending Justin in to the CapCon as hisspy and agent provoature all while pushung on towards dealing the Combine a blow that will hurt it enough to give Hanse time to consoldate and dig in. So leaving aside the offical canon events we are talking about things related to the original question.
And acvtually Hanse did know that the Dragoons might be on their way out of Combine space, re-read Wolves on the Border.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/19/05 11:29 AM
64.95.219.124
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You keep looking at the short term goal.
with the added resources from the Cap Con space, this would give more resrouces (and mech factories) for Hanse to use. The combine might be a threat at the moment, but Hanse knew that the Commonwealth was going to be joined into the Fed Suns, and with the additional industrial capacity from captured cap con worlds they could litterally build more troops than the combine could kill. Hanses problem when he did the war that failed in I think it was 3058 (going on memory there) was that he tried to go to fast into Combine space before he had the over whelming forces that he could have had if he had waited 10 - 20 more years (Hitlers down fall in WWII he had the better trained military and better equipment he just started the war before he was really prepared to). So again Hanse had the right idea to take the Cap Con space, he just tried to make his time table move faster than it really could.
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Karagin
07/21/05 08:06 PM
63.157.58.46
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Again you are missing the point of the dicussion. We know that going after the Cappies was easier, but that is NOT the point.
The dicussion is about Hanse going after the one nation that was a major threat to the his relam, which the Combine was. I think with the Lyrans pushing in from the other side, and the Suns going for the Derion District, then they could have pulled it off.
Beyond that the Cappies would have thought twice since the Combine was beat what could happen to them would come to mind and IF Hanse and sent in Allard as double agent as well, then the Cappies would be in no shape to do anything and also Hanse could use the card that he was holding of causes issues for Marik that could have spilled over in to CapCon space thus rendering any actions by Laio to nothing beyond border raids. And he was well aware of his brother in laws actions and schems and plots.
Hanse's had no need to go after the CapCon until the writers changed gears mid story arc, then the Cappies became the bad guys and the Combine the evil but untouchable enemy. That is how things got changed, the Suns attack the weakest power in the Inner Sphere and win, no suprise there.
Now as for the what if's about the War of 39, I think Hanse should have waited until at least 3050 to attack the Combine, that would have given him more time. Now can we go back to talking about the attack on the Combine as oppsead to the CapCon as was original asked.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/22/05 11:36 AM
64.95.219.124
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Actually I was adressing that and giving the reasons it was not done.
Basic points
(note Questionable loyalty was to the Coordinator not to the Combine as a whole)
Dieron District:
Kessel Prefecture 15 worlds on Steiner boarder;
3rd Dieron Regulars - Regular / Reliable (medium reginemt specialized in city fighting)
12th Sun Zhang - Green / Fanatical (light regiment no special training)
11th Legion of Vega - Regualar / Questionable (Heavy regiment no special training)
Kingston Caballeros - Regular / Questionable (no details on this unit)
22nd Dieron Regualrs - Veteran / Questionable (light regiment specialized in recon)
Vega Prefecture 8 worlds on Steiner boarder;
2nd Legion of Vega - Regular / Questionable (Medium regiment no special training)
14th Legion of Vega - Regualr / Questionable (light regiment no special training)
2nd Dieron Regulars - Veteran / Questionable (light regiment specialized in mountain warfare)
Al Na'ir Prefecture 17 worlds on Davion boarder;
5th Sword of Light - Elite / Fanatical (one light batt, one medium batt, and 2 heavies city fighters)
9th Sun Zhang - Green / Reliable (light regiment no special training)
18th Dieron Regulars - Elite / Reliable (Heavy regiment specialized in city fights)
15th Dieron Regulars - Regular / Reliable (assault regiment with no special training)
8th Dieron Regulars - Verteran / Reliable (medium regiment specialized in night fighting)
36th Dieron Regulars - Regular / Reliable (light mech batt specialized in open fields warfare)
Ashio Prefecture 13 worlds on Davion Boarder;
27th Dieron Regulars - Regular / Reliable (medium regiment no special training)
12th Dieron Regulars - Green / Reliable (medium regiment no special training)
Brion's Legion - Regualr / Questionable (no details)
9th Dieron Regulars - Regular / Reliable (heavy regiment no special training)
Algedi Prefecture 13 worlds on Davion Boarder
24th Dieron Regulars - Green / Reliable (heavy regiment no special training)
with the following as reserves from the Pesht District without weakening any hostile boarder
3rd Pesht Regulars - Regular / Reliable - Light regiment special training recon
4th Pesht Regulars - Green / Reliable - Medium regiment no special training
6th Pesht Regulars - Green / Reliable - Heavy regiment no special trianing
7th Pesht Regulars - Green / Reliable - light regiment no special training
9th Pesht Regulars - Green / Reliable - Heavy regiment no special training
10th Pesht Regulars - Green / Reliable - Assault regiment no special training
1st Sword of Light - Veteran / Fanatical - 2 Medium batt, 1 heavy, 1 assault night fighters
7th Sword of Light - Verteran / Fanatical - 2 light batt, one medium, one assault batt City Fighters
Johiros Regiment Night Stalkers - Veteran / Questionable - Light specialty in raids
and 17 regiments in the Galdeon District and 13 in the Benjamin District for 30 more regiments attacking in that Theather. And Steiner would be facing 21 regiments from Rasalhague so thier battle plan could not have been much diffrent from what they did.
Note that most of the worlds near the core are heavily populated and thus city fighters are more deadly in these situations, also Dieron got the best supplies after the elite Swords of Light so all units are well maintained and at a high state of readiness. Last note Pesht units while last on the supply list, are also in well maintained order as they have no hostile boarder they had to defend.
Leaving 58 battalions guarding 66 worlds with regiments stationed together and not broken up into battalions guarding each world leaving that to the local tank forces and mechs are move into position when the enemy is determined. With 27 batts in reserve.
Counter this to what Davion faced vs the Cappellans.
Prefectorate Guard - 3 batts Veteran / Fanatical - Medium Heavy Regiment *destroyed*
Northwind Highlanders - 3 batts Veteran / Fanatical - Medium mechs *Switched sides after half regiment lost*
1st Ariana Fusiliers - 3 batts Veteran / Fanatical Medium mechs *2 batts destroyed 1 escaped*
2nd Ariana Fusililers - 3 batts Regular / Reliable Salvaged units *1 destroyed 2 escaped and destroyed later*
Ariana Grenadiers - 1 batt Elite / Fanatical Heavy/Light *Mod casualties, retreated*
1st Chesterton Voltigeurs - 3 batts Regular / Reliable Medium - *Light mod casualties, remaining surrendered*
2nd Chesterton Voltigeurs - 3 batts Regular / Reliable Light - Heavy *2 destroyed one surrendered*
3rd Chesterton Voltigeurs - 3 batts Regular / Reliable Light - mod casualties - *retreated then destroyed on diffrent world*
Hamilton's Highlanders - 2 batts Elite-Vet / Reliable Light - Medium *Destroyed*
Lothar's Fusiliers - 1 batt Regular / Reliable Light heavy casualties - *retreated and destroyed on diffrent world*
Trimaldi's Secutors - 2 batts Regular / Reliable Medium - Light *2 companies destroyed - retreated and destroyed*
Vincent's Commandos - 2 batts Regular / Reliable Light - Medium *destroyed*
Blackwind Lancers - 1 batt Veteran / Reliable Medium - Heavy *surrendered*
Justinia's Curassiers - 2 batts Elite-Vet / Fanatical Heavies *surrendered*
Stapleton's Iron Hand - 3 batts Regular / Reliable Assault - Medium *mod casualties - escaped*
Cochraine's Goliaths - 1 batt Regular / Reliable Assault *destroyed*
1st Confederation Res Cav - 3 batts Vet-Reg / Reliable *2 batts destroyed*
3rd Confederation Res Cav - 3 batts Reg-Green / Questionable *Destoyed*
4th Confederation Res Cav - 2 batts Green - Reg / Questionable *Surrendered - one batt drowned*
Justine's Grenadiers - 1 batt Veteran / Relaible Medium - Heavy *destroyed*
Freemont Cuirassiers - 2 batts Regular / Reliable *one batt mod casualties and one batt destroyed*
McCrimmons Light Cav - 1 batt Regualr / Reliable Medium - Light *2 destroyed, 1 heavy casualties - destroyed on diffrent world*
MacGrefors Armored Scouts - 2 batts Regular / Reliable Heavy - Light *1 batt destroyed and 1 surrendered*
Kerrs Intruders - 2 batts Regular / Reliable Assault - Heavy *1 destroyed, 1 heavy casualties - then surrendered on diffrent world*
McCarrons Armored Cav - 2 regiments Elite / Fanatical Heavy *2 batts destroyed, high casualties on 3 batts and one retreated*
4th Tau Ceti Rangers - 1 batt Regular / Reliable Heavy - Medium *Casualties but raid successful*
Laurels Legion - 1 batt Regular / Reliable Light *2 companies destroyed, one defected*
1st New Hessen Irregulars - 3 batts Regualr / Reliable *2 batts destroyed and one retreated*
2nd New Hessen Irregulars - 3 batts Regular / Reliable *Destroyed*
House Hirtsu - 1 batt Veteran / Fanatical Medium *destroyed over 2 worlds*
House LuSann - 1 batt Veteran / Fanatical Medium *destroyed over 2 worlds*
House Fujita - 1 batt Veteran / Fanatical Medium *destroyed*
House Ijori - 1 batt Veteran / Fanatical Medium *destroyed over 2 worlds*
71 battalions spread out over 44 worlds each world holding at least one battalion.
Because Max had his forces all over the mech losses looked huge because Davion could mass on each world he was attacking making it a mech batt vs a mech regiment (3 : 1 odds). Which would not have been the case vs the Combine thus losses would be much higher. Also unlike the CC the mechs of the combine were off the front line, held to counter where mech forces were detected. Keeping the regiments together would make these counter attacks more devestating. As I noted the CC did not make any counter attack effort, instead they garrisoned worlds trying to figure out where Hanse was going next. And lastly, Davion would have for sure been facing huge pushes by both Galedon and Benjiman Districts as they would know for sure where Davion forces were (Though allied the Coordinator still did not trust Max's intell). Now Steiner would have given more forces in that area but then again would have left thier boarder open to the Raselhague District who (with the Red Duke) made no pretenses that if they saw any weakness they would have invaded as many worlds as possible, which forced Katrina to keep her forces over on that boarder. And lastly, I have to state that Max would have been attacking Hanse in the rear. Hanse plan worked because he left a skeleton garrison on the Draconis boarder, and if it was not for the Dragoon defection the entire Draconis March would have been lost and New Avalon would be threatened. FASA even mentioned that if Jamie did not hold the combine up that Hanse may have beat Max but still lose his capital to the Dragon. Hanse took a gamble and it paid off.
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Karagin
07/22/05 12:09 PM
65.140.156.25
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No you were not you were repeating canon events and saying that is how it would happen no matter what.
Siting numbers that are AFTER the changes made by the then current batch of writers and authors doesn't do anything but support the events as they were changed.
PRIOR to the change the Combine and the Suns were more then evenly matched. Neither side had the advantage. When Hanses made his attack on the CapCon he stripped the Periphery of troops he could still do the same for this attack on the Combine.
Using your points, why didn't the Combine attack the Suns when they were so busy in the CapCon, oh wait they were busy dealing with Commanwealth and the Dragoons...and the troops in the Draconis March were still veterans and still up to strength. Gee no raiding up and down the line by the Sword units...
The troops in the Derion District were equal to what the CapCon had at the time, with a push from both sides of the District the Suns and LC forces could have captured the area, and I think the Skye groups would be very happy to get back lost worlds and push the boder further away from them.
The attack on the Combine was doable UP to the change in focus by the authors and TPTB at the time of the events at FASA for what the 4th War was going to do to the BT universe.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/22/05 12:23 PM
64.95.219.124
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Ok once again (Writers not withstanding)
Davion could not have made a push into the Dieron District. the forces needed to take that area were at least equal to what was in the Cap Con. The Benjamin District could have flanked and cut off the attackers supply lines. The forces on the combine front were stripped to keep those field forces in the field and moving.
Also, as I stated above, Cap con had thier forces splintered apart. Classical military blunder #1. the combine kept its mech forces off the front, used a lot of tank forces on the boarder to slow an attacker down a week or so, then mech forces would be decending onto the world, the attacker (Davion) would now find that he is facing a new enemy that knows whats there and is geared to beat him. all the stories that lead up to the 4th Succession War always pointed to where the Dragon always out manuvered Davion, this does not mean the Davion did not win thier share, just means that the combine knew how to manuver thier forces better, and would have caused Davion more of a bloody nose and thus making holding worlds harder (heck almost 4 regiments defencted to Davion and helped garrison worlds they just took allowing his forces to push forward again which would not have happened in the combine).
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Karagin
07/22/05 05:59 PM
63.157.57.101
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Teh Deiron District had the same set up forces as what the Suns faced when they attacked the CapCon, so how is it NOT possible for them to take the District? Add to that the Lyrans will also be hitting the same area as well. So the Combine would be forced to draw troops from other border areas as well as inwards and thus they show up piecemeal.
And as I pointed out above the idea here isn't about the CapCon getting attacked, we know what happen there. This is about what if the Suns and their Allies went after the Combine INSTEAD of the CapCon. Again we know what happen to the CapCon, we know they were having major internal issues, and their military was all over the place, we know they had TWO major spies in their ranks as well as dissatisfaction among both the locals as well as the military. We know Laio and his family were on the wacky side, we know that Hanse had a beef with them over the whole dooplerganger deal, we know Hanse had info that Haske-Davion was plotting against him and we know he was taking steps to deal with it. ALL OF THIS HAPPEN AFTER THE NOVELS CAMES, not before. Why the focus was changed from the issues that House books and other soucesbooks were stating as issues between the Combine and the Suns coming to head soon will never be know, but given that if Hanse used the same force going after the Combine as he did the CapCon he could have got equal gains over all from the attack and while they might not have been easy gains he still could have set the Dragon back years and also given him a very well tested and bloodied military Machine that would have given pause to Laio's efforts. Adding in that he still could have had Allard go in and play spy, he still had the FWL card to play since he had MIIO and the other spy groups of the Suns working to mess with them big time and he also had a very loyal (well to some degree) ally in House Stiener and with them attacking the Combine along their shared border it meant the Combine was facing invasion on TWO fronts and they didn't have the resources to stop that with out stripping other vital areas and the Raselhague folks could have rebelled as well some of other not so happy folks in the Combine.
Again why the writers and the powers that be at the time changed things, they never really said. Reading the Wolves on the Border and the Heir to the Dragon gives some insight in to the issues and problems in the Combine, all of which could have gone against the Combine. In the long run, the emegering FedCom could have got most of the Derion worlds, some along the Stiener border, even with lossing the Raselhauge worlds, and a few on the Davion border with Combine. Roughly 45 worlds all told.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/23/05 02:21 PM
65.71.125.124
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I do not know how many times I have to state it.
Cap Con had its forces spread out in battalion sized forces except for a few stratigic worlds. The DC did not spread ANY of its forces out, this is where the diffrence comes in.
With Cap con space, Davion has such great success because they OUTNUMBERED the defender 3 or more to one because they were spread out.
DC on the other hand kept its Mech regiments together and off the front to counter attack where Davion would be weakest at if they invaded.
You only hear of 3 total counter attacks by Cap con on Davion forces, which means Davion had control over the area and had suprior manuverability.
DC for all the stories leading up to the 4th succession war DC almost always outmanuvered the FS. That is why the DC was so feared was because it could outmanuver FS.
So looking at it this way, Yes Davion would have taken worlds, but Davion would have suffered much larger losses, and without all the units switching sides to garrison worlds I suspect that they would have had a much holding the worlds for any period of time.
Point 2 the Dieron District is heavy population (hense all the city fight specialist). FS only had 2 regiments that specialized in city fights (DC had obviously more) that alone is whats called a combat multiplier (makes a unit fight with greater effect than a non multiplier unit). If you have the chance read the Galdon Campain in this battle 12 Combine regiments (Galdeon mostly) fought Draconic Milita and 5 Elite Merc regiments. Though Davion won both sides were all tore up (few units were less than 50% losses on both sides). This was against the Galdeon District that is of a lower combat status than the Dieron District. Also this was the Combine attacking (which is what would happen if FS attacked as mech regiments were one jump back from frontier worlds). Where Cap con did little to stop the inital attacks and harldy hurt Davion so he could do a total of 6 waves. The Combine surely would have gave as well as it took. Yes worlds would have been lost, but Hanse would be lucky to do 2 waves at most. Also with the Benjmin District attacking (Galdeon was tied up attacking Wolves Dragoons which I find hard to belive that even an elite unit outnumbered 4 to one in mechs alone not to mention other assests that are required for war). Even green troops (which the combine had nit few of those were attacking most were regualr troops) that have the numbers can swarm over elite people eventually as elite people would require rest, and with the numbers and transport assets I find it hard to belive the Dragoons (from a realistic military standpoint) could have done what they did even with Clan training. Now back to the Benjmin district that could have counter attacked (it did take 5 boarder worlds in the 4th succession war but halted as they awaited more orders from the coordiantor) and would have put pressure on the rear areas of the theater of operations that was pressing into the Dieron District. Even though the Warlords of the Combine despised each other they always put the combine first as to not do so would have been death to them. One other thing that seems to be forgotten is that Liao usually mated 3 tanks and 2 inf for each mech. The combine mimicied FS, 5 tanks and 3 inf per mech. so right there you already have more tanks on the battlefield which also would slow the davion advance allowing the counter attack units more time to pick better targets.
Davion and Steiner would take worlds, but the cost would be the Red Duke taking about equal Steiner worlds (that is where the bulk of the Steiner trops were facing the Red Duke and not in the Dieron District), and they surely would have lost worlds along the Benjmin District front and possibly Galdeon worlds if the Coordinator ordered worlds to be taken instead of revenge vs the Dragoons. That coupled with the higher that would have been suffered and making garrisoning worlds harder would have halved the worlds taken. And in the over all scheme the war may have netted no gain in worlds, have a weaker boarder with the Capellans and FS with a huge debt that they would have to pay with no huge gain in resources.
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