ilClan Predictions

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Karagin
12/27/20 12:18 PM
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Predictions for what happens after the fight for Terra?

One thing I could see happening is one or more of the Clan refuse to follow the winner. Mainly because they have come to see themselves as their own entity, not a united group, that shares customs but not much else. Ghost Bears might be the best choice for this.

Then we have the remaining Homeworld Clans, things there are not going to be pretty but they are a perfect foil for the winner, just enough of a threat to be dangerous but not enough to cause them to become the boogie man under the bed kind of bad guy.

I see Wilson's Hussars having a chance to gain fame and shed their dismal reputation with the coming wars.

The FWL I don't see as a threat to the winner, more of a slow campaign to conquer and absorb into the new system. The CapCon will need to be ground into the ground. They are never easy to conquer but can be done with a ruthless campaign. The Commonwealth is going to be the factor that either hurts the winner or helps them. I see the Steiners playing the long odds and going for maximum profit and net gains over military fighting, wouldn't be surprised if the Diamond Sharks don't merge with them or have some kind of corporate alliance that forms a new system of government of the two.

The Suns and the Combine, this is going to be ugly, they aren't going to stop fighting each other even with the winner of the ilClan at their doorstep. For the Combine, they have the Suns in a similar spot that they did several times before, and this time I don't expect to see them gamble it away. The Suns have major issues, and I would expect to see remnants of the Republic flee to their worlds to either continue to fight the ilClan or to aid the Suns and keeping what they have. I don't see a resurgent Suns just yet, maybe in 30 years game time or even real time.

Overall I think we will see a return to that 3025 feel as far as the fighting goes, new merc units, some older ones, medium size battles, the ilClan doing what it has to do to take control. I expect some surprises and don't expect another asinine WoB like silliness to happen.

So, those are some basic ideas I can see happening, what do you folks think will happen?
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Wick
12/27/20 05:33 PM
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I think ilClan revolves around the enmity between members of two groups: the Clans and Successor States. They war mainly with each other in the same group, and not across groups. (The renewed interest in Clan Invasion era covers the Clan vs I/S period already.) Thus, the Clans are mostly fighting other Clans, and the Successor States mostly fighting amongst themselves as they always have (minus the obvious lack of a Lyran-Combine border), but members of each group trying to court members of the other to assist in their goals. This helps form a better gap between Clan-tech and Spheroid-tech, which got too badly muddled in the Dark Age era. There are no firm alliances between a given Clan and a given House but a few ties.

It seems pretty obvious the Wolves are not going to let the Jade Falcons take Terra, or hold it very long if they do. They readopted some of the Wolf-in-Exile members and more importantly, formally reabsorb Wolf's Dragoons in 3150. Seems like an odd decision to eliminate the most popular merc company in the game for 30+ years if they didn't have some major role to play in ilClan. I think the Dragoons are the poster-child galaxy of the ilClan-era Wolves, despite being mostly freeborn, and that the Wolf-Jade Falcon dynamic continues to be the major Clan theme in ilClan, too. The Wolves progress even more toward freebirth-equality while the Jade Falcons become more conservative and less welcoming of freebirths. As such, the Jade Falcons have the hardest time making any friends with the Houses (especially the Lyrans given 100+ years of hostility.)

Hell's Horses expands their 'occupation zone' (if that's even what they should be called now) to be a little more spinward than they had been, forming a wedge between the Jade Falcon and Ghost Bear territories in the Lyons region. The Hell's Horses vs Ghost Bear hostility resumes and is the second, lesser facet of Clan dynamics in ilClan. The Falcons are too focused on Terra and the Wolves to effectively counter the Horses' claiming some of their worlds.

Snow Raven expands into Combine space. They potentially threaten, and may even take worlds as deep as Kesai, including New Samarkand and Tancredi. I don't see them interacting as much with the other Clans as much though, given lack of a common border.

Sea Fox continues to hold a few planets here and there, mainly operating as the clearing house for selling Clan designs to the House armies. They remain ever present, but generally out of any major conflicts.

Thanks to Snow Raven being a thorn in the Combine's side, the Fed Suns is able to retake New Avalon and Robinson. The Dracs scorch earth on their retreat though so neither planet is the manufacturing hub they used to be so the Fed Suns continues to be merely on par with the others rather than the former powerhouse it once was. The situation on New Avalon is especially dire with Avalon City essentially reduced to rubble and the vast farmlands of the countryside burnt to ash. The Davion court will continue to operate out of Markesan for some time, with some discussion on whether it should permanently replace New Avalon as the capital. As expected, much of the Fed Suns story is based on recovery, having lost all three capital worlds in the 3140s and trying to recoup as the Capellans did with Xin Sheng a century earlier. The Fed Sun's favored Clan are the Snow Ravens, mostly out of the need for the Ravens to keep the Combine in check, though they greatly appreciate the efforts of the Wolves and Falcons occupying the CCAF, too. The reduced state of the Fed Suns and focus on recovery at the expense of general spending causes a lot more of the backwater worlds to jump to the Filtvelt Coaltion, which doubles or triples in size.

The Combine has some setbacks, losing worlds they'd once taken from the Fed Suns and a new foe in the Snow Ravens. Their border with the Ghost Bear Dominion is rather stable though. They do encourage Hell's Horses actions on the Ghost Bear flank so the DCMS can focus on the Snow Ravens. The Horses reciprocate by purchasing a lot of the classic Combine vehicles in their Mk II configurations (Scimitar, Saladin, and Saracen)

The Capellan Confederation is again fighting tooth and nail for every coreward world than the Clans want to take them from, as they did with the Republic decades earlier. They are less focused on old foes in the FedSuns and FWL space but have taken a few worlds from either when opportunity presented itself. In order to better focus on the coreward front, they have either merged with, or conquered the Taurian Concordat and Fronc Reaches. This gives them a volume of space more on par with the other Houses, and allows the former Taurian components of the CCAF to harass the Fed Suns while the historically Capellan units focus on the Clans, the Anduriens, and Magistracy. I think the Taurians are willing partners of the expanded Confederation, but the Fronc Reaches less so, causing war between the Magistracy and Confederation. The descendants of the Liao-Centrella line in both nations face the same problems the Steiner-Davions once did. The Duchy of Andurien supports the Magistracy and together the two smaller powers are mostly able to keep the larger nation at bay along their border, but are virtually powerless to eject the Capellans from Fronc or its colonies.

The Second Free Worlds League mostly comes to agreement with the Wolf Empire on a shared border, so that each side can focus on their own goals. The two have a tacit alliance. The FWLM buys Clan-tech from the Wolves and supplies the Wolf freebirth forces (including Dragoon Galaxy) with a lot of material, and each agrees to stay out of the others business. The Wolves don't get involved with Marik raids on the Lyrans, Capellans, Marians, or Anduriens, and House Marik stays out of the Wolf-Jade Falcon fight. As each gets exactly what they want from the other, they form the only true House-Clan bond (the Fed Suns/Snow Raven bond more a matter of convenience than alliance)

The Lyrans are the least militaristic of the Houses in ilClan era. They fight some with the Hell's Horses, the resurgent FWL, and with long-time foe in the Jade Flacons, but their primary concern is Clan Sea Fox merchants robbing them of financial opportunities. While the other four Houses all welcome Clan Sea Fox merchants and the ability to get their hands on Clan-grade equipment, the Lyrans are less willing. They aren't quite at war yet but there's a serious dislike between the Lyrans and Sea Foxes that will eventually come to a head. As such, the Lyrans get the least amount of Clan tech material from the Sea Foxes, but the waxing fortunes of Clan Jade Falcon has opened up the possibility that the Lyrans can retake Pandora and gain the ability to manufacture their own Clan-tech weaponry.

In the periphery, anti-piracy efforts by the Snow Ravens, the Filtvelt and Randis coalition, and the expansion of the Confederation into Fronc space has greatly reduced piracy on of the spinward side of the Inner Sphere, much as the invading Clans had virtually wiped out piracy in the coreward regions. Pirate bands eventually congregate on the anti-spinward side. The Circinus Federation is effectively restored by pirates. The influx of "barbarians" also has a negative effect on the Marian Hegemony, with increased pirate raids against their worlds until the Fall of Alphard to the barbarians. The Hegemony is reduced to several smaller bandit kingdoms in a mirror to the fall of the Roman Empire in the 400s, with piracy now heavily concentrated along the Free Worlds League/Canopian border as it once was along the Lyran border and Combine's Rasalhague district. (This should spur more pirate action in the game, which was fairly prominent in the Succession War era, but pretty much died out from Clan Invasion on with exception of the Tortuga Dominions.)

The homeworld Clans were (properly) written out of the story during the Jihad so I don't think we'll see them in ilClan. If we must, then a new conflict is needed to break Star Adder hegemony over the three others and correlate to the previous Warden-Crusader and Bastion-Aggressor conflicts. I'd take it as the Star Adders grow complacent with superiority, the other Clans start becoming more successful against them, and a wise (or crazy) Khan of Star Adder sparks off a civil war by suggesting his Clan be split up so as to remain militarily-sharp, as ilKhan Kerensky had done at the formation of the Clans rather than creating one Clan of all 800 warriors. Thus the Coalescents, those who wish Star Adder to remain together so as to absorb the weaker Clans and see no excuse to be split as the Stone Lions were to remain Spheroid taint, are fighting the Fracturists, who wish Star Adder to split so the Clans as a whole remain strong. Nearly all Star Adder bondsmen and most of the merchant caste support the Fracturist view, as do the other three Clans who agree that the amassed power of Star Adder dilutes Kerensky's vision of power through skill rather than power through numbers. (The Fracurists are in agreement that the names of fallen Clans would not be reused. If successful I'd like to see "Punisher" used as some part of the name, as a nod to a listed but unused name on the old Mechforce membership sheets.)
Karagin
12/27/20 10:54 PM
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I see Alric making good on his comments about paying back the Combine for their wiping out the Nova Cats. And really I don't think the House Lords will be happy with any Clan in control of Terra, be it the Wolves etc...
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Wick
12/28/20 11:47 AM
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Being less than happy and being able to do something about it are two different things. Besides, only the Combine and Confederation have territory close enough to Terra (within one jump) to seriously dispute it. For at least early ilClan era it seems the Clans will control it. I expect the former Republic space to remain highly fractured though, with a lot of overlapping borders. I wouldn't give any single faction a chance to hold all of former Prefecture X, let alone reclaim all Republic/Hegemony space (though that is the ultimate goal of the Clan factions.)

That said, the authors have rarely taken the path that seems most obvious and ask for suspension of believability too often (asinine JIhad-era silliness as you said), so its just as likely some savior element rescues Terra and is suddenly able to resist the forces of both Clans Wolf and Clan Jade Falcon. I don't think it can be the Dracs after what they did to the Nova Cats and on New Avalon. I don't think it can be the Capellans after the bad rap they get for consistently fighting the Republic (and being general bad guys thoughout BattleTech history.) Can't be the Free Worlds League after they lost much of their heavy industry to the Wolf Empire and are still recovering from the war with Regulus. Can't be the Fed Suns because they're far from Terra and have their own wounds to mend. Can't be the Lyrans because they're also too far away and would have to go through both the Jade Falcons and Wolves to get to Terra. I'd have given the Lyrans a chance had the authors not already written Wolf Empire to conquer as deeply into Commonwealth space as Gallery and Thuban. Tharkad and Hesperus II are both at risk so the Lyrans need to defend them and can't easily launch an attack toward Terra. And the Republic is too shattered to be of any serious challenge. If you're expecting a neutral third party, where are they? The Inner Sphere is much less united in 3151 than it was in 3067 when the WoB struck and Devlin Stone came along a few years later. I just don't see any way the Houses prevent a Clan takeover of Terra, though I don't dispute the possibilities of guerilla action to make life difficult for them. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Terra change hands several times during ilClan either, if the Falcons and Wolves beat other down so much that the Bears, Capellans, and Dracs get a shot at Terra, and perhaps later the Fed Suns, Lyrans, and Leaguers. Terra was always the great prize during the Succession Wars, Clan Invasion, and Jihad eras, so it should be again.

I'd also like to say that I like your idea to rehabilitating some of the disgraced merc units. With Wolf's Dragoons (finally) out of the picture, there should be more glory for the rest, and it doesn't all need to be heaped on the Kell Hounds either (whose primary role in ilClan should be the recovery of Ark-Royal, not the defense of Terra.) Wilson's Hussars is as good a place to start as any.

A Steiner-Sea Fox merger would be interesting to consider, but I'm disappointed the Sea Foxes (and Diamond Sharks before them) have had very little combat opportunity and want to see them get into more fights in ilClan. With Jade Falcon on one border and the Wolf Empire along two thirds of the other, the Lyrans are kind of trapped where they can't fight another House on even terms, so I gave them the perceptibly weakest Clan, letting a trade war boil until it erupts into fighting. I'd rather see the Lyrans and Sea Foxes being new foes than a combined half-Lyran force fighting the Falcons and Wolves, which we've seen before. I want ilClan to give some new enemies (like Combine-Raven and Confederation-Magistracy) and not be entirely based on old grudges (though they should be a major part)
Karagin
12/28/20 10:07 PM
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All of those are interesting points and possibilities. One thing that I could see happening and this would take time and some as you pointed out super saviors, is that one or more of the Successor States try again to pull a Fed-Com out of thin air, mainly to combat the ilClan and its forces. Also, I am still thinking some of the Clans aren't going to be happy with the whole they aren't the ilClan and we might see that being the part the burst the bubble for Alric and his grand dream. Lots to consider and lots of possibilities as it should be. I do agree that the logical course doesn't seem to be the scope that the powers that be want to go with things. I am hoping that this is better handled than the Jihad and one can hope that they learned how badly that butchered abortion of a storyline hurt the game both in costing fans as well as putting nails into the coffin of the game itself.

Now, something to consider is Terra going back to being natural and having say five or six worlds around it as their holdings and power base. They become what ComStar seemed to be aiming for at one point, the center of learning and technology and the home of humanity and that's it. The MRCB moves there and other groups like that. Thus Terra would become more of the arburatoirs of things and not a military power.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Wick
12/29/20 02:03 PM
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Not a bad idea you didn't quite say but seem to be leading towards: MRCB sets up shop on Terra and its effectively defended by mercs rather than any House army. That keeps it neutral and out of the hands of the Clans, without any singular savior element. It also gives a renewed interest in mercs (which has been greatly diminished since the Clan Invasion and Civil War eras) and presents the unexpected conclusion of former Wolf's Dragoons fighting against an allied mercenary force, reversing their role in the Jihad era. I'm not sure how the ball gets rolling where the mercs are willing to do that but if it happens, its preferable to any single faction taking over.

Unlike you, I think Dark Age hurt the game more than Jihad. Too much early focus on industrial mechs and vehicles, too much late focus on Clan-tech, and the Republic falls apart after Gray Monday but the other nations don't seem to suffer as much. Having larger and more widely spread empires indicates the Houses and invading Clans should have had worse problems, or at least equal. Could opportunistic factions (like the Capellans) have taken worlds from the Republic? Sure. But the whole Republic crumbling as quickly as it did seems overly forced in comparison to the other powers, which seem nearly immune to the effects of financial and social breakdown brought on by an HPG system failure, minus the Fed Suns whom the Cappies and Dracs continually exploit despite long supply and communication chains. I find Dark Age to be by far the most unreasonable era. Jihad on the other hand got the beginning absolutely right, and the end result is acceptable, but the Wars of Reaving in the Clan Homeworlds is both the most unreasonable subperiod and crippled a lot of the better aspects of the game. Foremost, military experts like the Clans shouldn't be making obviously unwise military actions such as taking on two larger foes at once or leaving your supply chain and rear bases almost entirely unguarded. (Specifically, Clan Ice Hellion who are ridiculously written to guard their critical manufacturing centers with no more than a binary or two. As a Hellion fan that pisses me off more than the tail-kicking they got from the Falcons. One thing to lose to a foe. Another to lose to your own stupidity. They were even given an example in their history to know better.) In my opinion, the outcome of the Wars of Reaving was about as bad for the game as possible, as it resulted in the elimination of the most interesting Homeworld Clans (speed-focused Ice Hellion, microcosmal Fire Mandrill, and technology-limited Blood Spirit; fractured the conventional-heavy Hell's Horses, and effectively wrote-out the archeological-minded Goliath Scorpions) while keeping the two most boring Clans (slow, lumbering Coyote that can't act without Wolf leadership, and the large, but utterly unremarkable Star Adder). With the Dark Age isolation of the homeworld Clans and aerospace-heavy Snow Ravens in the Periphery, and the later elimination of the spiritual Nova Cats, the only remaining Clans that stand out as different in either tabletop gameplay or in roleplay are the Hell's Horses and Sea Foxes. And since the Sea Foxes hardly ever fight, the authors have reduced the Clans from over a half dozen interesting factions to just the one for tabletop. This is one trend I hope ilClan reverses because Jade Falcon, Wolf, and Ghost Bear are just too much alike now. (Unfortunately, TRO:GC and the RecGuides seem to be pushing the Snow Ravens towards more ground-unit parity so CGL isn't really helping them distinguish themselves either.) The widespread distribution of Clan-spec technology and the trend towards homogeneity amongst all factions during the Dark Age (and pre-ilClan material) have ruined one of the things FASA had understood well: interest demands variety. Dark Age has less variety than during Clan Invasion, Civil War, and Jihad; therefore it is a less interesting era.
Karagin
12/29/20 04:23 PM
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The neutral Terra with MRCB backing would be a far better idea than somethings I have seen. The Jihad in my opinion hurt the game in that, add this what I mentioned, it was a forced hard rest that wasn't needed. They could have handled a new Succession war with ease and not had it be a hard rest, a start to a reset to allow new things in and removing some of the lesser-used parts could have been done in a manner that allowed the new in as the old went out, but instead we got this mass extinction that wasn't well written or handled, which allowed in the whole Click-tech nightmare. I related the Jihad to the Dark Age era, both hurt the game.

One thing that seems to have been ignored, again, in the game is the independent corporations and other similar entities. Each House has the main players aka the ones ruling over the nation-states, but there are how many minor Houses that make up the whole affair? Think back to Hanse vs Michael, all the other minor lords and such played nice with both but the majority favored Hanes. Similar things House Steiner. We saw this used somewhat in the Combine with the Black Dragons but even that was corrupted with the whole Jihad silliness and a good source of plots and stories lost. This something that should come back in the wake of the ilClan events.

I also agree that the Gray Monday event was very poorly shown in how it actually impacted the other Houses and powers. What should have been a shattering event causing many of the smaller above-mentioned lords to break off on their own or have lead to infighting, turned into a minor oh well moment, and then nothing else was really done with it.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
csadn
01/04/21 04:32 AM
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Why does it have to be *one* Clan occupying Terra? Suppose -- and I'm just blueskying here -- two (or more) Clans reached Terra at the same time? Like, say, Wolf and Jade Falcon -- and we all know how much they just *love* each other; watching them inadvertently rip Terra to pieces while trying to claim sole-ownership, then get booted off by someone else, would be the pinnacle of comedy. (Also leads to a question: Suppose a Clan did take sole ownership of Terra, then lost it -- does that then revoke that Clan's ilClan status? Which just goes to show what a complete pile of Hell's-Horse-Hockey the entire Clan System is....)
CF

Oregon: The "Outworlds Alliance" of the United States of America
Karagin
01/04/21 09:35 AM
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That could be an outcome. I would expect the other Clans to move in the second they see blood.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
01/04/21 12:08 PM
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There seems to be a missing piece of the clans taking Terra.
As they are split, would they even honor the original agreement?
The home clans kicked out the IS clans. So would any Home clans rise up to hit the IS to remove that taint from the blessed Terra?
Would the remaining IS clans fall in line with the clan that does take Terra?


As this thread it beyond the information I have, I was going to try to stay out of it, but the question of the clans gave me a few questions that would be nice to know.
Karagin
01/04/21 12:59 PM
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All good points and as I said above, the Home Clans or what's left of them could become one of the major issues for whoever wins the battle for Terra. Also, if the IS Clans don't honor the idea of the ilClan then we will see a longer march of war, which is not bad for the game and would lead to interesting outcomes. One thing is for sure one or more factions or houses will fall to someone.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Karagin
01/04/21 12:59 PM
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Also, go read Hour of the Wolf, it will give you missing info and shows some of my points as possible story lines for players, and offer counter points and a wealth of ideas.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Wick
01/04/21 04:54 PM
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Quote:
Why does it have to be *one* Clan occupying Terra? Suppose -- and I'm just blueskying here -- two (or more) Clans reached Terra at the same time? Like, say, Wolf and Jade Falcon



Dark Age ends with Clan Wolf jumping a large portion of their forces into Terra system to blockade against an expected Clan Jade Falcon attack. They aren't there to play twiddlywinks and share the system. A share between these Clans and another, or two other Clans is possible, but certainly not these two. At least, not with the current leadership.


Quote:
watching them inadvertently rip Terra to pieces while trying to claim sole-ownership, then get booted off by someone else, would be the pinnacle of comedy.



Which is what I suggested. It seems a near certainty that either Wolf or Jade Falcon takes Terra and establishes themselves, in name if not support of the others, as ilClan. Otherwise why name the era that?

Having given some more thought to this in the past week, I've come to the conclusion Clan Wolf will win the fight for Terra over Clan Jade Falcon, thanks in large part to the new Dragoon Galaxy. However, because Dragoon Galaxy is not a historical piece of Clan Wolf (only an addition made in the last few months) and has roots as a mercenary group that betrayed and fought against the Clans and was effectively abjured in the 3050s (or 3060?), the other Clans do not see it as a rightful conquest. The incorporation of other Wolf-in-Exile elements into the proper Clan Wolf during the late Dark Age also casts doubt about the legitimacy of Clan Wolf by the other Clans. So technically Clan Wolf claims the mantle of ilClan by claiming Terra, but the other Clans denounce their use of abjured forces. Some (Jade Falcon for example) even call it dezgra. A new Refusal War begins with Clan Wolf having to stave off Trials of Refusal by the others. Perhaps word even gets back to the homeworld Clans about Clan Wolf's "misdeeds", and that spurs them to rejoin the center of activity with a second invasion of sorts. The endgame is that Clan Wolf (and its ilKhan leader) finally realizes that they must split Dragoon Galaxy and other previously abjured elements off into a new Clan, in the same fashion as Hell's Horses/Stone Lion did, such that the remaining Clan Wolf is 'purified' in the minds of other Clans and can then rightly Trial of Possession the new Dragoon Clan for the rights to Terra. Clan Wolf loses and Clan Dragoon is legitimized as the ilClan. Not everyone is happy with the arrangement but see it as more acceptable outcome than when Clan Wolf first took Terra, even if Clan Dragoon is Clan in name only and treated by the others (except Wolf) as the Wolves-in-Exile once were (or even more severely, as the Nova Cats were). After all, it still gives all the other Clans a chance at taking Terra someday and becoming ilClan, rather than bowing down to Clan Wolf hegemony.

I think this line of thought is rather sappy, but Wolf's Dragoons have long been the darling of the authors and being absorbed into Clan Wolf in late 3150 diminishes them greatly. Being reconstituted as an independent force, even stronger than they've ever been, with the eventual right to rule Terra seems exactly like something the authors would come up with.
ghostrider
01/05/21 01:41 AM
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Minor point that seems to be needed here.
The Dragoons were sent by clan wolf, from clan wolf. The name Wolf itself was promised to become a blood name if the recon succeeded. Granted, most of the current members are not from the clans, but the fact that they fought the clans and proved they were not the barbarians the clans thought, may well give them the leeway to be part of the Wolf Clan.

They may have to fight trials of refusal, though I think it would be set up as just attacks with no formal challenges, if the story goes this route.

I still think the other clans will not honor the original invasion prize as most were prevented from even being participants in the invasion, and will definitely not allow the tainted IS clans from gaining that honor. Even if they do want to remain at home and not get involved.
Karagin
01/05/21 09:52 AM
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The thing is how political are the Clans now vs how they were prior to the invasion or at the start. They had their own politics prior to the invasion, Warden vs Crusader, Wolf vs Falcons, etc...then they entered the realm of the Inner Sphere and its version of Byzantine politics with paranoia extreme mixed in. How much change did this cause to happen to the Clans, that question needs to be addressed and the answer might give us the one to how the other Clans will react. We know the Falcons want Terra, so they are a known factor, but what of the Bears or the Ravens? Are they interested in taking it or are they content with what they have?

The politics of the Clans now is the important part, what are each's long/short term goals, what are their factors to keeping a balance with both parts of their holdings. Important things that would help us get a better understanding of the situation.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Wick
01/05/21 01:47 PM
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Wolf's Dragoons once came from Clan Wolf, but that was 150 years prior. Promises made that long ago might not apply after such a long absence. And they were ordered to return: only a few like Natasha Kerensky actually did. The rest (including Jaime Wolf) did not and remained mercenaries, a concept viewed as anathema to Clan behavior (one fights for their Clan or their nation, not for money.) Sure the Clans take mercenary bondsmen (Phalen Kell) but for the most part they have nothing but contempt for willing mercenaries, and during the invasion were far more brutal to mercenary forces than the House armies. Clan Wolf is a little different because besides being more liberal than most Clans, they have experience with the Dragoons and later Phelan Kell. While Clan Wolf may see no problem in absorbing Wolf's Dragoons, the more conservative Clans (like Jade Falcon) would find it reprehensible. Even Ghost Bear and Snow Raven treat their spheroid complements in the Kungsarme and AMC as junior partners only good for second-line duty, and not full members of their societies - and those two are/were national armies, not mercs. I just can't see the authors allowing the Dragoons to be absorbed into Clan Wolf without the others crying foul - to ignore it would be contradictory to established Clan behavior during the four previous eras.

I'd hope to see the Bears with eyes on Terra. The Ghost Bear Dominion crept about 90 light years closer to Terra since the Jihad, from Orestes down to Ko and Dyev. They now have several systems within two jumps of Terra. Besides Wolf and Jade Falcon they're the only Clan that can immediately challenge. They also have the benefit of a reliable spheroid force who will rabidly defend the Dominion against encroachment by the Combine and Hell's Horses, freeing up the Clan touman to focus on Terra.

I wish the same were true of the Ravens, but they've been hanging out in Outworlds space through the whole Dark Age and haven't expanded much in the direction of Terra. The only way they get involved is a strong march through Combine space. (Which I've predicted in part, but they just have too far to go to reach Terra anytime soon.)

Sea Fox is around, but their organization doesn't lend itself well to massive invasions, unless all the Khanates joined up and expanded territory close to Terra. According to the fantastic Sarna maps Hean is the closest Sea Fox system, but its still three jumps away. They are potential competition later though. Terra would obviously make a great mercantile capital.

Hell's Horses is the other. I hope to see them drive a wedge between the borders of Jade Falcon and Dominion space toward Lyons. If they can, they too can compete for Terra later on. Even if they can't it helps fuel the fire of their long-standing feud with the Ghost Bears now that their other rival in Clan Wolf has left for the Lyran-Free Worlds border.

Homeworld Clans are just too far away. We already know it should take months to even move forces to the Inner Sphere's borders. And to breakthrough to Terra would require even more advanced weapons then the ones the Clans used 100 years earlier. (And the game certainly does not need another set of super-weapons.) And to be honest, there's nothing terribly unique about the four remaining homeworld Clans so their participation is arguably unneeded. If bringing the homeworld Clans into the mix means less for the minor factions of the Inner Sphere then I'd be against it. Let's not rob the Filtvelt Coalition or Duchy of Andurien of some noteworthy events just to facilitate some Star Adder fiction. Maybe if the homeworld Clans had militaries that operated in completely unique ways compared to how the spheroid Clans operate (see earlier note on Blood Spirit, Fire Mandrill, and Ice Hellion) I'd then have some interest in seeing what they could do. But for all relevant purposes, Cloud Cobra is no different than Snow Raven, Stone Lion no different than Hell's Horses, and the Star Adders and Coyotes no different than the Falcons and Wolves. Don't need homeworld Clans anymore. Don't even want them.
ghostrider
01/06/21 12:16 AM
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They were ordered by the Leo Showers. He may have been the ilkhan for the invasion, but the Khan Merlin Ward had exclusively told them not to obey any other khan during their last intel trip.
Splitting hairs? Maybe.
Outside of the story line, we pretty much know they wouldn't obey. Inside is a different story.

There is an issue with clans in general with crying foul. If one clan objects to how another runs, there is only so much they can do. Trials in and out of the grand council is about it, and even then, most of the clans would suggest you mind your own clans business.
It would be more likely to have the Wolves claim the Dragoons just to spite the falcons and get them to come at them. In the end, the prize, if all actually honor it, is becoming the ilclan for eternity. They might repeat the same feat they did when the Wolf/Falcon war was fought. Piss all off, so they fight each other and bid so low that they can't beat the wolves.

If the Ravens focus is the same as it was, then they are more of a space force then land force. This gives them an advantage of being able to move towards Terra quicker, as they don't really need large land holds to do much. The space assets would allow them to jump several systems and raid for supplies. Fuel and food/water being the most needed.

The home clans may well just ignore what is happening, but unless they abjured the invasion results as they did the IS clans, they would have to be concerned that the Falcons or Wolves may become the ilclan. Something none of them would be happy with.

You can have smaller factions get involved with this, even it if it not supporting or fighting against the push for Terra. Simply hitting any weakness perceived in order to expand their own power. Multiple promises made and broken would be likely.

The 'lesser' clans may well find their outlook on IS soldiers turn for the better, as they may find they will perish without them. Even with them being second line, we know that it can be a good thing, as the Wolves used theirs with good effect. Might even be some to prove they are equal or better then their current trueborns.
Karagin
01/06/21 10:11 AM
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A push to take the Clan Homeworlds could be an end goal of the ilClan, one of many, so a long term planned event. That keeps a bad guy in the background and then when you still have the silly WoB running around and ComStar trying to regain past glories there are interesting secondary events to use. That is if they remember to keep story points and plots in there and not forgotten and left in the pages of novels and source books. I recall many times in the late 90s when we would point out things only to be told by TPTB that those points weren't important anymore and thus not needed, leaving tons of things on a cliffhanger like a bad TV show.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Wick
01/06/21 06:39 PM
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We've already seen ComStar/WOB try to regain past glories with the Blessed Order stuff (and without NETC a revival seems far less likely.) I'd rather not see repeated storylines like a Comstar or WOB revival for ilClan. I mean, its obvious we're going to see Falcon vs Wolf and FedSuns vs Combine conflicts. I want to see new enemy pairs and new stories relating to the new pairings. Things like the Nova Cats and Wolves taking on the Marik-Stewart Commonwealth, or the reformed Free Worlds League taking on its former partner in the Principality of Regulus. Those are pairings Dark Age covered that previous eras had not.

I'm less disturbed by details or plot points introduced in novels than in sourcebooks. Novels are merely mostly-canon while the sourcebooks are meant to be full-canon. Be careful what you wish for on open cliffhangers though. As I recently discovered, you can be more let down by CGL's interpretation than if they'd just left unanswered points of the novels or sourcebooks as they were.
Karagin
01/06/21 07:31 PM
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I get that point on the Cliffhangers, but at the same time so much has been tossed away that could have opened far more fronts for the players and the game than has been kept.

All of what you mention could still happen along with the tired and true stuff as well, it would be a good way to mix it up, FWL tries to take back lost worlds and runs across WoB/ComStar doing something stupid, then that blows up in to a regional war that brings in the CapCon or the Wolves etc...small steps to bigger items. Not saying we need full scale march across known space ala WH40K stuff, just normal issues becoming bigger ones.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Wick
01/13/21 03:47 PM
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I recently watched an old History Channel feature called 'The Dark Ages' and noticed that Alaric who led the sack of Rome in 410 died later that year.

Given the huge similarity, I'm going to go out on a very short limb here and say Khan Alaric Ward conquers Terra in 3150 and then he too also dies before the year is out. And as you'd mostly expect, the reins pass to a Kerensky, Marotta.

Maybe this has already happened in the new book - I don't know.

(Interesting also that Marotta is a name of Italian origin, not the Kerensky-normal Russian, and that Rome is, of course, in Italy. The authors sure seem to be laying it on thick.)
Wrangler
04/13/21 08:47 AM
199.46.188.21

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Sorry to resurrect the conversation, since the Hour of the Wolf been out for bit and were waiting to see the source book to finally drop for the ilClan. I do hope it covers more than than the events of Hour of the Wolf, aka Trial of Possession for Terra and the ilClan ship. I hope it goes into what going on immediately after it. I hate have another couple years of cliff hangar like the last time.

My Guess is that the Capellan Confederation will have first run with the ilClan-Wolf Empire, while its has spats with Hell's Horses depending on how well the conversations it will have with other Clans (Ravens & Ghost Bears) did go to Terra.
When it hits the fan, make sure your locked, loaded, and ready to go!
Wick
05/01/21 11:21 PM
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<rant>

Well one thing I predicted (but didn't say above) has come true: more terrible naming conventions. I've already made the case that assigning the name Devil to a Clan Snow Raven design despite being an synonym for "hellion" was a horrific editorial oversight. Now we get a third class of the same unit name.

We've had a Lightning Aerospace fighter for a very long time. Out-of-Universe it was introduced with Aerotech first edition in 1986, and in-universe has continually been in production since 2465. In fact, it is the most common aerospace fighter ever produced. Truly ubiquitous.

We've had a Lightning Hovertank for a very long time as well. This was introduced in TRO:2750 in 1989, and in-universe was produced 2696 to 2767 and again from 3067 to 3078. Both the Star League and Jihad variants all go extinct by the end of the Jihad, but at one time it was one of the most common combat vehicles of the SLDF (perhaps THE most common)

Now we've got a Lightning Battlemech with ilClan Recognition Guide 14 (starting 3119)

C'mon CGL. If someone posted a design like that on a forum like this and gave it the name Lightning, you'd rightly hear people tell them that name is taken and choose another. For CGL to pull such a stunt shows quite a bit of apathy for Battletech history (and recent history at that with the Jihad still fresh in people's minds.) We're not talking about rehashing a name that's 500 years out of production like Gladiator was at one time. This is recent stuff.

And to make matters worse, its a Capellan design, who of course, have the largest contingent of Lightning fighters of any faction. Its not like this is a Clan-Inner Sphere divide over naming. It's the same damned faction. It's like going to Texas, and making something other than a truck but naming it Ford F-150. Everyone in Texas knows exactly what a Ford F-150 is, and if you try to tell them its something other than a truck, you'll get confused stares. The Capellan Strategios must have similar eye-rolling moments trying to figure out the TO&E.

How do the CGL editors keep missing this stuff? Is ilClan the only thing that matters now? Are they throwing past Battletech history out the window when it suits them? In the case of naming the Devil and Lightning it sure looks that way to me. Hard to support them when they make boneheaded naming decisions and ignore the rich history provided to them by their FASA and FanPro forebears. Before publishing, they need to take 5 to 10 minutes to decide "Does this name fit the faction?" and "Does this name conflict with any previously written lore?". Failure to answer these two questions negatively not once but twice in the last few months is a bad indication of what to expect going forward. This is not to say FASA and Fanpro didn't make poor naming decisions (Thunderbolt LRMs, for example), but I don't believe they ever goofed up twice in such a short space of a few months.
ghostrider
05/02/21 12:39 PM
45.51.181.83

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I thought to add in the possibility of CGL not knowing the names of the items in their game. It might also be part of their being able to use the items if made by someone outside the normal staff. I agree, it is very stupid, even if they are trying to confuse everyone into not knowing what unit is being called out by say the Lightning.
It is also very possible, they don't have much ability to come up with new names. Not condoning it, but they do have a lot of units they have named before.
In response to the last line with FASA, the Scorpion tank and mech is an example of them using the same name for different units pretty soon after the release of the first.

Nice to see someone call out the issues.

I don't have the guide, but having the clans take terra kind of negates the entire reason for the 'win' during the end of the invasion. Not that the eventual taking of terra wasn't forgone conclusion.

So when does the Ilclan start the war to eliminate the home clans, since they agreed to the conditions as well as had the nerve to expel the invading clans? It isn't like the ego of the descendants will let that go.
So is it the next war? 2nd one? or 3rd one?


Edited by ghostrider (05/02/21 12:44 PM)
Karagin
05/02/21 01:30 PM
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The names of things are going to get recycled over time. How many aircraft are in real life named Lighting or Thunderbolt?

It would be nice if the PTB would look back at the older stuff and stop trying to "fix it" to match whoever is thinking, hey, this is a cool idea; see our talks about the Retro Mechs. Old doesn't mean it has to be nerfed.

Also, many militaries don't go off the names of equipment but of the Alphanumeric designator. We never say get the Abrams; it's get your tank or take C34 and link up with C45. Or take one of the LMTVs and get troops and water on it and go to the field site. So having a name is not really that important.

I have a 35-ton scout/spotter mech called the Lighting, it's a knock of the Raven, I was going with the idea that worked on the idea of things that appear and disappear quickly. Even have a 45-ton version call the Blackbird.

They should have a list of mechs and their names for the writers and mech designers, but again, look at the Falcon and Centurion, those names are both mechs and vehicles and aerospace fighters. They tired in Dark Ages to go with the "nicknames" warriors given their equipment, like how pilots will name their aircraft after females or something funny, tankers pick names the bring up images of death and destruction. However, they tried to make that if you had a "character mech" then you got some kind of special power or skill, and this killed things for me. Also, the attitude of the PTB at the time of the Jihad and Dark Ages left a lot to be desired as far as customer service and the ability to take criticism over a fictional product. And many of the former PTB and their groupies from that time are still bitter over many fans pointing out issues. Plenty to read here on and about that if you want to go digging.

With the game now 100 plus years forward of its starting time (game time) and 37 years of real-time and changes in writers and founders leaving and the starting force ending, things will change. So a mech called the Lighting isn't that bad, what is bad is all the Dark Age crap they kept, like the lighter weight Mad Cats and such, that could have been tossed in the trash along with a lot of the other silliness that went along with it.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Wick
05/03/21 06:17 PM
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Quote:
In response to the last line with FASA, the Scorpion tank and mech is an example of them using the same name for different units pretty soon after the release of the first.


I had recognized that one. But not as severe since the mech factory was destroyed in 2790 and the tank began production in 2807.

The closest previous offender was the Centurion. The aerospace fighter and mech were both produced for the AFFS starting 2801. (Until the Centurion factory was destroyed in 2845.) However these were both introduced to the game in the mid-80s and we just have to chalk it up to an early FASA goof before the dust settled and they started straightening out a lot of the inconsistencies in their source material (particularly years of key events.) Not happy about it, but I can forgive them for that. The two Scorpions are another pair that could be explained in similar manner. But all indications are that the Capellans are still producing the LTN-G16L Lightning fighter as of 3119 and the CGL team should know this as they currently publish TRO 3075. It's much harder to forgive such a mistake these days, especially in the light of text-searchable PDFs and sites like sarna.net. Even the MUL that they support could have told them it was a bad idea to replicate the name for the Capellans (if not all IS factions)

Dragonfly comes close to filling three classes, having both a conventional and aerospace fighter, plus being a IS designation for the Clan Viper Omnimech. Though the aerospace fighter was Age of War, the spotter plane is a Capellan Succession War design, and the Clan mech codename was used 155 years later on the opposite end of the Inner Sphere. So in-universe its not nearly as offensive.

There are also Banshee, Chameleon, Tomahawk, and Vulcan mechs and fighters, Devestator, Gallant, Predator, and Striker mechs and tanks, Kestrel tank and VTOL, and a Peacekeeper SecurityMech and VTOL (and likely several others I can't think of), although in none of these cases could I identify them being built concurrently by the same faction like the Centurion and this new Lightning. Though its quite possible, and even likely, that several, including the Scorpion, could be in the same place at the same time though salvage, inheritance, or the melting pot of time.

I'm not saying modern militaries don't reuse names either, but they typically cease production (and active use) of one before reusing the name for another. Only countries buying secondhand military equipment might end up with multiple models. But the manufacturers of these reuse the names to make it a selling point to interested militaries by conjuring up warm and cuddlys, and from a Battletech perspective its closer to a variant than an all new craft. Mechs, tanks, fighters, and VTOLs are obviously not variants of each other so reusing names is just confusing. Nor does Battletech need to do it: there's thousands of words available for unit names. A dictionary of historical weapons is ideal and CGL would do well to invest in one. (Similarly, I discover a lot of neat names to use on Wikipedia or the Forged in Fire TV show.)
Karagin
05/03/21 08:22 PM
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Uhmm...hold on here, modern militaries recycle names by putting an Alphanumeric after the name for variants or they slap a Roman II or the number 2 after the same name cases in point the Chieftan tanks, Challenger tanks, the Leopards, etc...

The Patton tank has for the US military being the name of every tank starting with the introduction of the M46 and only ended when the M1 was named after Gen. Abrams. Likely the next tank will keep the Abrams name or they will pick another General to honor.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Wick
05/05/21 12:01 PM
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Well the point was its not a problem to name multiple tank models Patton or Abrams, its that the US Military wouldn't ever name a fighter or bomber after them. Granted, this doesn't make sense to honor Army generals in such a way, but they don't assign the aircraft names Hornet, Eagle, Lightning, Falcon, Raptor, Thunderbolt, Lancer, or Galaxy to any tank models (to my knowledge.) About the only one I could identify is Hercules: the large and well-known transport aircraft and the lesser known crane and wench tank recovery vehicle, and even then the recovery vehicle is an acronym (Heavy Equipment Recovery Combat Utility Lifting Extraction System) rather than a true name. So I stand by my statement that its bad for Battletech authorship to use the same name for two different classes of military vehicles produced by the same faction.

I mean, I can see where they're going with it - as an alteration of the similar 70-ton Thunder as they have the same mass and similar helmet heads. So I'm sure somebody thought it was cute to have a "thunder and lightning" gimmick. But it fails. Militaries are more interested in efficiency than naming gimmicks. Just name it Thunder with a new model number and if they wanted to give it a codename or unofficial name branded by the pilots, that's fine. But to officially name it Lightning gives the appearance of trying too hard to make the gimmick stick. The previous Hammer and Anvil gimmick was handled better - the naming gimmick was obvious but at least its two entirely different mechs - a light and a heavy - instead of the second being a variant of the first or reusing a name previously used (even once, let alone twice as in the case of Lightning)
Wrangler
05/13/21 08:37 AM
129.64.0.46

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THere thing is the ilClan & it's associated Clans need formally organize and build up their forces. Right now Wolves, Falcons, and newborne Smoke Jaguars are in tadders or barely hold candle to what...regiment of troops? If not less.

Without source book which we will get next month hard to say what the toumans are looking like.

If anything happens, Ghost Bears and the Snow Ravens have enough ground forces to do anything aside from possible Clusters worth of troops the Sea Foxes have. Won't that be surprising if suddenly local Wal-Fox store sudden unloaded troops saying their going collect IOU everyone may owe them for stuff they sold.
When it hits the fan, make sure your locked, loaded, and ready to go!
Karagin
05/13/21 09:58 AM
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The problem I see is you have some wild cards. We all know Laio wants to regain all their lost planets plus a buffer. Then the Horses are a bit pissed off at how they were turned away/treated by Alric. Then the former Nova Cats are still around, so the at too needs to be accounted for.

The Foxes/Sharks have their long-term plans; they will collect when it's convenient for them, not sooner. They are not the ones to go in without a good exit plan.

It also brings up the issues of the Homeworld Clans and the mess that is, because right now, two Clans are claiming the ilClan title, one has Terra, and one thinks it's the rightful one since they have followed in a twisted way the traditions of the Clans up to that point. Alric will need to deal with them; if not, we could most likely see them returning to deal with the fallen Clans as they see the Clans that are now more or less fully in the Inner Sphere.

The Bears and Ravens both could challenge Alric, but really is that in their best interest? The Bears still have to keep things under control in the Rasalhauge holdings as well as the planets they have added over the years. Sure it's been at least a hundred years, but we are talking about a group of people who fought for how long against Kurtia?

I don't see the Bears jumping into a fight, they may test things, but I don't see a long-term effort to really beat the Wolves. Now the Ravens are in a similar bind as the Bears but on a different level. Their issues are similar to where the Bears were at the end of the Clan invasion up to the start of the temper tantrum of the Word of Blake. The Ravens are still integrating the Outworlds Alliance into their Clan and vise versa. Their ground forces are not anyplace near the levels of the other Clans. Sure, they have one hell of a fleet and aerospace contingent, but not so much with the ground pounders. I don't see the Ravens, on their own, doing anything, now if the Bears, Sharks, and Horses come up with some crazy plan to ally and go after the Wolves and their support, then maybe I could see the Ravens jumping in, but they are going to be making hard choices.

The thing is the Bears have been shown as putting hard-placed or deep-set roots down in their holding, aka the Dominion. They aren't as nomadic as the Falcons and Wolves are shown to be. Sure they could copy the Wolves and pull up everything and go after Alaric, but is it really in their best interest? Same for the Ravens, recall they left Clan space to get away from problems and double-dealings and to have a better position to move towards their own long-term goals.

I see more issues from the Horses trying to upset things Alaric is trying to build, I see them in a shady way pushing support to the Dragoons, once word spreads of how they were played by Alaric, which I still see as a move that Katherine would pull over say even Vlad. Really Alarics' isn't much better than his gene mother. The Horses also have a big chance to go grab former Falcon worlds before Lyrans move into retaking them. Which would give them a holding that they have wanted for a long time. Alaric has the double problem of what is he going to do with the former Wolf Empire holdings. Did he just cut them loose to fall to whichever group or groups can move in and hold them? Is he going to send troops back to hold them?

He still has to work out the issues with Exiles, they are not in step fully with his ideas, sure they joined the fight for the glory of Clan Wolf, but I doubt they did it for Alaric and his vision only.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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