Karagin
05/13/21 10:18 AM
70.118.172.64
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Now I mentioned Liao, and it seems that since the end of the 4th SW, the Powers that Be have been pushing for Laio to be the growing comeback kid of the Inner Sphere. Old Sunny manages to undo much of the damage done to them in a more believable way than how the same PTB at the time handled the WoB, and even after the whole Jihad mess, abortion of a storyline/plot, Laio still came out ahead of many of the other powers. Fast forward and they didn't bow and scrape to the silliness of disarmament and fought against Stone and ROTS (Such a silly acronym) and continue to be a threat even to Alaric. Yes, I know some will say that they aren't but what other House is posed to go after Terra?
Now let's look at Davion and Kurita, they are locked in a war that has been going on for pretty much the entire time the game has been around. One side of the other gains the stronger position and uses it to beat the other into the ground only to fall short of the mark. And based on the history, it's always the Suns getting the beating. Don't see much about repeated drives on Luithen by the AFFS or even their ever taking it. Yet we see numerous pushes to New Avalon and it being taken by DCMS forces. I don't see either of them making common cause to go running after Alaric.
Kurtia has to be wary of the Bears and their actions, as well as the Ravens, added in they, are still fighting Davion, and this time they are fully engaged on that so they aren't violating Sun Tzu or Clauswitz's dictums about fighting on two fronts.
The Davions have bigger issues, they are fighting on multi-fronts and even with the possible peace with Laio, though that won't last for long, they still have to deal with retaking and rebuilding what they get back from Kurita. Also, the new Prince Charming didn't honor his deal with Stone and come riding in like the Knights of the Round table come to save Arthur from Mordred at the last second. I doubt very much we will see them go after the Wolves unless the PTB are back into the save the Suns phases and Ultramarine them once again.
Lyrans, aren't in a position to do anything, in fact, they should be in a civil war given how badly things have been run since post-Jihad events. The Wolves literally waltz through their holdings with ease, anyone with a brain cell can see that the Lyran military failed to do anything and actually bought the bad ideas of the leadership to the point that their own capital was sacked. Then the Falcons did a similar thing as they twisted their way closer to Terra. Not seeing them as a threat beyond money into one camp or the other.
The former Free Worlds League is the new Chaos March. The heir to the Marik throne has their hands full, they need a break or ten to rebuild to anything close to being a real challenge to any of the other powers. Why we haven't seen Laio pop in and grab larger chunks is a puzzle, but again their focus has been on the Suns and righting past wrongs. This whole area is a mess and one that won't be seen as a threat unless of course, we see a return of the WoB in some manner since this would be a good way to repeat the past events. Also, the border lying Perpheriy powers are using this time to grow in holdings of both industrial and military power. They can come into play and really live up to the idea that they can make or break events.
Several good parallels to come to mind, the final collapse and fall of the Western Roman Empire, the events post-Peloponeaian War, along with the rise/collapse of the Mongol Empire are all good examples of possible post SUPER moment events to look at for ideas
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Wick
05/13/21 11:05 PM
173.247.25.195
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Quote:
The Ravens are still integrating the Outworlds Alliance into their Clan and vise versa. Their ground forces are not anyplace near the levels of the other Clans. Sure, they have one hell of a fleet and aerospace contingent, but not so much with the ground pounders.
Debatable by late Dark Age. In Clan Invasion and Jihad they were absurdly Aerospace heavy, like 65-70%. By 3145 (if I did the math right) they are 30% mech (73 stars), 6% protomech (15 stars), 21% elemental (50 stars), and 43% aerospace (105 stars), not counting any aerospace attached to the naval stars, and also not counting AMC forces, which are really only good for garrison anyway. Its clear CGL is moving them toward more ground forces with mechs like the Stinger IIC in late Jihad, some older models like Devil being (re-)introduced, and in 3144 the War Crow and 3146 the Carrion Crow being their designated line model mechs for the next 15-20 years. So if they were at 57% ground forces in 3145, they might be closing in on 65% by 3151. And if 138 stars sounds on the weak side, consider that its just over 10 average sized clusters worth, and if the old adage that a Clan cluster is worth two regiments is still true, then that's comparable to 20 regiments - half the DCMS's battlemech strength - with all their aerospace power still in reserve.
I agree they aren't in any position to challenge Clan Wolf (and Jade Falcon) for possession of Terra on their own, but they're going to make things very sour on the periphery borders of the Combine and Fed Suns very soon (in fact, they have already taken several Fed Suns worlds)
However, now that we know the outcome of the major event of 3151, the Lyrans and Free Worlds League need to get busy reclaiming some lost space. The Jade Falcons and Wolves are both severely weakened, so its time for the Lyrans to reclaim worlds lost to the Jade Falcons coreward and to the Wolves spinward of Tharkad. A targeted strike at the Clan-upgraded BattleMech plant on Pandora would be the ideal place to start. The FWL can do even better by retaking factories lost to the Wolves on Stewart, Amity, Keystone, Kalidasa, and Tongatapu. The Wolves literally took the industrial heart of the FWL and if the newborn nation wants to get back in the game, retaking most (if not all) of those factories and gaining Clantech would put them in good position to ward off Liao incursion. Whether Regulan militants let it happen is the big question.
Edited by Wick (05/13/21 11:24 PM)
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Karagin
05/14/21 12:52 AM
70.118.172.64
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The FWL is a mess, there is NO central government, so it would be the minor powers in that part of the Inner Sphere trying to grab things to include what's left of Marik's own realm. Unless Marik has regained full control of the whole former FWL, which I don't recall reading about happening or even hinted at, she's not going to be doing much of anything but holding her own.
Clan tech is easy to get, the Sharks will sell you everything up to the factory and even that if your price is right. What the minor former FWL powers need to be doing is digging in, hiring mercs, and preparing for the next round of fighting. They are not really anything more than speed bumps for the larger powers.
The Combine has battle-tested units, the Ravens not really, they have well-trained troops but when's the last time they have actually fought a protracted battle against a peer or near-peer force?
The Lyrans have to balance their moves against the Bears and their other borders. Recall the Horses are still around and they want their place in the sun. I expect them to do be the main trouble makers for a while. Note too that many former ROTS units have gone merc or jump to one of the other Houses. That means that some numbers will go up and the tech they bring is going to be a force multiplier for whoever can get a large number of former ROTS units to join them.
What would be nice is to see this setting milked for a bit, and not nerfed all to hell. Tech doesn't need to be jumped anymore, and many of the Jihad era retro-tech toys need to go away.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Wick
05/17/21 06:11 PM
173.247.25.195
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The reformed FWL conquered the Regulan Fiefs in 3148 after about a decade of skirmishes and a very quick invasion to finish them off in a few months (which was way too fast in my opinion, but that's the way it is). So it seems they'd coalesced around Jessica enough to follow her lead and be competent on the battlefield. Unless Nikol is an absolute bust as Captain-General, the FWL should be pretty ready to repel Liao incursion and try to go after territory lost to the Wolves. They're in better shape than the Lyrans who got mauled by first Falcon and then Wolf forces. It sems that after the FWL dissolved in the 3070s, many of the nations and independent worlds had oversized militaries for fear of attack by one of their neighbors or larger neighboring nations (like the Commonwealth or Confederation) - when they rejoined, they suddenly had a stronger military than you'd expect of a nation of that size in 3139, and that let them bully the Regulans into submission.
The Duchy of Andurien is still independent but they've been off-and-on members of the FWL for a millennium, swapping back and forth with the Capellans (and of course going rogue in the 3030s), so I don't see it as super-high priority for the FWL to go after them. Going to war with Andurien probably brings the Cappies and Magistracy into the fight, and while the Andurien factories are a nice goal, you've got multiple Clantech factories ripe for taking, on worlds more accustomed to FWL membership, and who only the weakened Wolves (and maybe Falcons) will defend. I'm no military strategist but it seems obvious to me what the FWL should do (get Clantech factories) and what the FWL should not do (go to war with three powers over Andurien).
Why buy Clantech from the Sea Foxes if you can just grab it yourself? For the FWL and Lyran Commonwealth this should be an ilClan era goal. Though this doesn't work for the FedSuns or Caps with no significant border except to Sea Fox enclaves. Nor for the Combine due to Ghost Bear strength and known Rasalhaguian resistance, though I think the Kuritans could possibly rebuild the former Nova Cat factories on Irece now that the Cats are finally out of the picture. Much as I dislike it, it seems the Inner Sphere powers are moving even closer toward adopting Clantech as the rule rather than the exception.
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Wrangler
05/21/21 09:47 PM
24.34.162.106
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I always hated the name Regulan Fiefs. It just made them sound like some 4th world country or something.
Personally, i think Duchy of Andurien, MoC and the Confederation are possibly going form it's own "super" state once all three of the elderly leaders pass. Leaving Dania in charge. It won't be like FedCom, but they maybe beefy to hold off the Clan/League
When it hits the fan, make sure your locked, loaded, and ready to go!
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Wick
05/22/21 06:04 PM
173.247.25.195
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Those three have been dancing together for 70 years so it seems likely they will either merge or have their own FedCom-style civil war. Frankly I don't know why Ilsa didn't take over the Confederation after Sun-Tzu died, being eldest child. Both males and females can inherit the Celestial throne of the Capellan Confederation but only women can become Magistrix; it would have made more sense to remain two nations and two rulers had Daoshen been older. The Anduriens probably don't want to merge - historically they've always found the Capellans to be overbearing rulers and Magistracy to be a bit "loose". They appear willing to ally with them but I'm not sure if the populace would support merging nations as the FedCom did. I think its more likely to continue as the modern Concord of Kapteyn than FedCom.
On the other hand, they are setting up Danai to be the Victor/Devlin superhero of ilClan. She's heir to both Magistracy and Confederation, and possible heir to Andurien, and apparently on good terms with both Nikol Marik and Julian Davion. And it doesn't hurt that she has a well-known hero mech in the Yen-Lo-Wang. Its this kind of pedigree needed to take on the Steiner-Davion-ilClan heir in Alaric. Its over-the-top writing, but it seems like everybody has to have noble roots of multiple nations these days.
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