history and future don't work

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ghostrider
06/04/22 05:25 PM
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What if the IS had started pushing back the clans even partway into the third wave?
The entire future would be changed as a few important points would not have happened.
Consider what would have happened, if the Dire Wolf was not in a position to be attacked by the FRR fleet fleeing another battle, as the IS has started rolling back the clans push. This would not have given the year of peace.
But even more to the point, the Dragoon meeting would not have taken place. There would have been no need to bother with it, as the Clans would have been being pushed back, not rolling over the IS worlds.
This is a very important point in time, not because of being trained to fight the clans, but the fact that the house rulers and their families were all there, interacting with each other. Without this happening, Victor would not have seen Omi. So the entire love affair line disappears.
The royals would not have met outside of political circumstances, so they would have had the chance to interact with each other in a more friendly way. This removes more then a few other situations that come in the future. This also includes Joshua going to New Avalon, as there would be no face to face encounters.
The question of if Hanse would have had his heart attack is something that can not really be said one way or the other, so will be ignored for this.
But the fact that the clans would not have been such a threat, the entire concept of the 2nd SL would not have come about. There would be no need, as the houses would have been satisfied that they dealt with the clans on their own.

In the end, the entire future would have to be changed to deal with these facts and far more.
The future would still have fights and wars, just not the way they are presented now.
Karagin
06/04/22 11:36 PM
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The is a point of departure that could be examined and explored. I have seen some fan-written AUs here that took the invasion in different paths and some that had the Clans get pushed back or hit a bit harder. It's all worth looking at, as long as we are all on the same page, and know that once events change, from that point forward everything is different.

All the future is not going to follow canon 100% and while some things might still happen, the majority won't. That is the important part. An example, a mech that matches say the profile of Berserker might come about, but it won't be called that since the company making goes a different naming route. Can be a lot of fun to explore this idea, but also very time consuming.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/05/22 10:53 AM
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A few scenarios have come to mind here.
Would Walterly have decided Comstar would start the SL and declare herself first lord?
Once being defeated a few times, would the clans call in more forces? Or would they allow more clans?
Would the entire invasion be called off if the invasion clans are pushed back into the periphery?
We know it is unlikely the exodus road would be discovered, as the truce battle is unlikely to happen.
Would the use of warships become commonplace?
Something that wasn't addressed in the original story, was the lack of use of mobile HPGs for worlds the clans took. I don't think they would rely on comstar, especially after operation Scorpion. We do know the clans could build the large HPGs, but for the initial invasion, they would still require coms when they didn't have warships in the area. The periphery comes to mind here. Also, use of the mobile HPGs could well be how the bridged the long distance in the invasion road, but wasn't really covered.
Would the invasion become a full scale invasion, compared to the limited strike to reach Terra first?
How far out into the periphery would the FC/DC search for the clans? The big threat here would be the warships.
Once the IS found Comstar working with the clans, would support for WOB increase once they showed up?
Or would WOB have ever formed in the first place?

There are a lot more, but it would be interesting to discuss.
Karagin
06/05/22 11:34 AM
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My take:

ComStar would be seen as a threat after Scorpion happened. The invading Clans would have taken over the HPG stations and wiped out the existing ComGuard units. But that would mean Tuykaid happened, if it didn't and ComStar tried to pull off Scorpion after one or more Clans suffered a major defeat, then it would not end well for ComStar. The invasion would continue on regardless of the defeats because each Clan is going after Terra, everything else is not on the most important list of things to do per se.

Recall, that HPGs can go on Warships and Dropships, so that would solve a lot of issues for the Clans. Pretty sure once they see the state of the IS HPGs, and they stop laughing their butts off, we would see them build their own network. Moblie to me means more than just on a track unit,

Define full scale? Four Clans is not a minor invasion. I doubt the FC/DC would look for the Homeworlds since they don't have the level of support of ComStar, who is likely pulling their forces back to worlds closer to Terra, the DC would be more engaged against the Bears and Jaguars and the FC would be trying to blunt the Falcons and Wolves as best they can. The FWL would be in more of a panic and the rest of the Inner Sphere and Periphery would likely not be caring much or dismiss things as rumors and FC lies.

If we go with the idea that ComStar is found out to be fully working with the Clans, then we could see their HPG stations "occupied" in both the DC and FC. Again the other states would dismiss things as rumors or lies. WoB would not likely happen, not as we know it form the Canon.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/05/22 12:34 PM
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The use of the mobile HPGs was thought to be a stop gap measure so newly conquered planets could have something when the front line units moved on, but before the construction crews built the large HPGs. I would think the clans would have more then a few, as their expansion in the home area happened, and I doubt they put up the permanent HPGs quickly.

The idea of Walterly proclaiming the new SL would be just as the clans started hitting the IS from the periphery, not after Scorpion. Pretty much as the reinforcements are in the LC area moving towards the clan front.

Given the clans were originally thought to have been just a large pirate faction that found a major SL base, I would agree about them not looking that deep into the Periphery for a while. The warships are a big question though. It is highly unlikely that most in the IS would know how to operate a warship at that point.

So do you think a different splinter group would form once the rank and file in Comstar found out the leaders decided to back some new invaders? Maybe even lead by some in the first circuit, as a means to oppose Walterly?
I wonder if the FWL or CC would side with Comstar, or turn hostile to them. Any proof they got, could well show Comstar is not to be trusted. Unless it is shown Comstar knew the invaders before they showed up, it may well cause others to question if they will turn on them as well.
Karagin
06/05/22 01:23 PM
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For splinter groups to form, we would need something that hurt ComStar badly, like say a major defeat or some internal issue that caused the rift to open. Now here is a way to have it possibly happen. The truth about the Clans being the SLDF returning with a vengeance and their open call for ComStar to fight them for Terra could cause it. Mainly because many in ComStar feel their hold on technology is key to everything. Others may want to embrace a more active role in cleansing the stars.

Or the Clans a bit brighter in how they deal with the Inner Sphere, they took the Dragoon reports as factual and planned for things like ComStar and have their Watch all ready to pounce and they use it to spread misleading information and expose many of the "secrets" ComStar didn't want to be exposed. Or a coup could happen as hardliners overthrow Waterly and Primuses and set up a similar WoB-like regime.

These are just my ideas on a quick and dirty take, nothing is fleshed out well and so take what you want from the ideas above.

Warships, I would say we would not see them until well into 3065 at the soonest and even then we would see smaller ones like corvettes and frigates like ships before we would see anything bigger. ComStar MIGHT share their tech and schematics and but I doubt it. In fact, that could lead to the coup I mentioned above as well.

I highly doubt that ComStar would aid the FC or DC against the Clans, certainly not once they found out fully who the Clans were and what their main goal was Focht might send some aid, like intel or a few weapon blueprints, but beyond that I doubt that ComStar would change their stance from shadow wars and such.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/05/22 02:08 PM
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The clans warships is what I meant. Would the clans use them if they were being pushed back? I can see them using them to attack fleets in the system they are in, if a safecon isn't granted.
But the bigger question would be if the clans would use them to bombard areas, even if it is just limited to military facilities? I can see the Jaguars and Falcons resorting to that, as they held the IS in contempt, but the Wolves seem more likely to leave them out. The problem is, if the truth gets out to the rest of the clans, would this result in either the Falcons or Jaguars being removed from the invasion clans due to ignoring their traditions?

Would it depend on the timing of when Comstar was found out? They were contacted and started helping the clans before they got into the IS proper. If say the first wave was already having issues with the IS, would Comstar continue to back the clans? Given their history, I would think they would lie to all sides, but ultimately try to weaken the IS forces so they could all be wiped out.
This idea is why I brought up Comstar trying to grab the SL banner and run with it.
I could see the clans being enraged enough to just swarm towards Terra to reduce Comstar to nothing, while forcing the houses to spread their forces to cover all access to Terra, as the clans could jump almost anywhere in order to get there, giving the clans an advantage where ever they strike at. Holding land is the question there. If they do a full space operations, then it would be difficult to cover all words with sufficient forces.

The jumpship issues would hinder things as well, though it seems to be left out in canon, with the huge movement of forces to the LC/clan borders.
This also leads to the question of if the FC and DC would commit to leaving each other alone while this is being done. As the Dragoon meeting wouldn't take place, Hanse and Theodore would not have a face to face discussion to agree to this.
Karagin
06/05/22 03:29 PM
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Warships would be used. They are there. They allow orbital support and so why not use them? You still need to control the ground, but it's far easier to handle it when you blasted into a wasteland.

Falcons would use it as the war went on, they would not use it unless needed. Recall they didn't go bonkers till AFTER the Truce. Without the Truce, well, they have better things to do beyond brode over not winning. The Jaguars, yeah, they are crazy before the Truce and thus would keep using them. Unless Ulric and friends can convince them of a bad idea of the move, or they run low on supplies. Whichever comes first.

If the first wave of the Invasion had issues, I doubt ComStar would take the Clans as a serious threat. They would more than likely try to infiltrate and take over and if that fails, then ignore them, since well they aren't getting anywhere any time soon to be a threat so...

Oh, ComStar might try to play the rally the Inner Sphere to the banner idea if they sell the threat as hey this is just the vanguard, see our spies (no, don't believe the propaganda about our working with them) tell us that there 18 or so more Clans heading this way. So, here is the plan, first we declare a new Star League, okay you still with us? Good, and we, ComStar are going to run and pay part of the bill, like 10%, okay so far? Good, then you, yes that means you to CapCon, will give us full control over your armies so we can stop these invaders. Sounds great right? What's that? You don't want to join us Fed-Suns? Well, fellow IS powers as you can see we have a traitor here and they are going to have to be dealt with.

That is about how I see them trying it, or they might go bend the knee some to old Hanse and sell him on a similar plan and have the CapCon as the gift to slate his ego, etc...

Jumpships, let us see, if ComStar is paying for things, issues might be as high, if they aren't then it's an issue. Recall they have Jumpships of their own.

The FC/DC fight might happen, recall Hanse was counseled by several aides to attack and break the Combine when Luithen was attacked.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
Karagin
06/05/22 03:31 PM
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Fun topic, nice and easy back forth, no investment really. Just a friendly let's spin things around and see what comes out. Had a bunch of these with a buddy over the years about BT and other sci-fi. Good times.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/05/22 04:48 PM
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I was thinking the jumpship issue without Comstar being involved. Canon had a few RCTs and individual regiments being moved to the clan front.

Odd thought occurred. You would figure Comstar had some bases in the periphery, if they were only for resupply of the exploration corps. Why wasn't anything said about contact with the clans before they hit the near periphery? I know it would be unlikely to run into a fleet of resupply ships, but planets would be more likely. There are only so many habitable planets between the IS and clan home worlds in a straight line. The exodus road has little to do with the invasion, as the clans came straight in, not following the curve of the Exodus road.

The FC attack on Luthien could still have gone off. Simply stall the mercenaries from reaching Luthien until after the clans had struck. Let them bleed each other out, then strike both. Or at least the side with the most forces still in tact.
It is difficult to believe a command circuit could be done in the short time between being informed and moving the mercs, especially when they were such a large group. It would require DC military jumpships to be involved, as well as civilian. Ion-Lithium only does a double jump, and I seriously doubt the mercs would risk their own jumpships by fast charging them several times to get there.

As for the Jaguars, I seriously doubt the incident with the ilkhan and the Dire Wolf would have happened, if the IS had held or pushed back the assault. With that said, the entire plot line of Phelan gaining so much power in the Wolves would have happened. Ulric would not have been promoted, as Leo Showers would not have died, as the attack would not have happened.
Karagin
06/05/22 04:58 PM
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The ComStar bases in the path of the Clan invasion would have fallen and no one would have known because the assumption of pirate attacks would be seen as the cause. Those were normal things.

Luthien might not even happen the way we know it, with no pauses or death of Showers the Jaguars would have been on their heavy push into the Combine, so they could have bypassed it or attacked in full strength. I doubt the FC would have sent any help if things were hard-pressed on their front with the Wolves and Falcons and recall the Combine and the Jaguars and Bears to fight.

If the event on the Dire Wolf didn't happen, then we would see a whole different Clan War.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/05/22 06:48 PM
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If the IS were pushing back the clans, I doubt Luthien would have happened. As the assault came after the year of peace, which allowed the Nova Cats to get into position, this would have been far different.
As stated, the death of Leo would not have happened in the FRR, as he would have been with his clan dealing with the set backs in the DC.
Now if the Jaguars were having issues getting a foot hold in the DC, would the Nova Cats have been activated much earlier? Even if it was to just sit in the close periphery?

The Comstar bases cause some issues, as they would likely have had military forces guarding them, and maybe even a warship or two. It is unlikely that multiple bases would have fallen without some warning. But this was brought up as nothing in the books suggested the clans got in contact with Comstar being further out then a few jumps. Forgotten information, or something else?

It also calls into question about the small unit of Diamond Sharks that were with the original 4 clans. Would they have been activated to help with attacks?

As this would cause a major demand for ammunition, would the clans have been forced to change from ammo reliant weapons to energy weapons much earlier then canon showed?
Karagin
06/05/22 08:12 PM
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IF the Jaguars are struggling to make their first wave goals, then I could see them bring the Cats in but more as a hey you want this you fight for it, and then fight us after kind of thing.

As for the Sharks, I am sure they were running most of the logistical mess that is/was the Clan supply train. Until they felt the need to play for planets. I doubt we would see them fighting early on. Yes, some major setbacks in Wave One and Two would change how some, if not all the Clans see the need for less ammunition dependant weapons and more energy-based ones.

Again ComStar would not report the loss of bases to the general IS powers, they would be raising their war footing, but they would still be playing the game of not tipping their hand and showing more force to the IS powers, recall they are still hiding a lot of their military strength even with the ComGuard out in force, they haven't played the Warship card yet.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/05/22 09:50 PM
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Not saying Comstar would come out on the news and say they lost a base. It is odd that it wasn't until the clans were almost in the IS that contact was made between the two of them.

The reason why I think the ammo issue would come up sooner, is the clans would be using even more ammo faster, as they would have more targets to strike at faster then canon. They would also probably lose more ammo dumps then they did in canon as well.
Which causes another question. Would the clans lose pods and weapons that have not yet been put into pods due to the losses as well?
Depending on if they do all the work inside dropships would have a large effect on this. If they did not work outside of dropships, then the IS would have to capture the ships in order to gain more tech.

Honestly, I can see the decrease in clan abilities be outpaced by not the real losses, but the loss of 'honor' as they would be getting beat by the lower then dezgra pirates at home. I think the clans would overheat more often, just to teach the IS a lesson, which would increase the losses they take. Trials of grievances would fly fast among those being forced to retreat as they would get on each others nerves with the oneupsman remarks. I could see some going as far as breaking ranks or orders, just to engage the IS in order to regain their honor.
Karagin
06/05/22 11:50 PM
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Even if the IS captures Clan equipment, it's going to take them time to study it and figure it out, plus they have their own research going as well. Just because you get a piece of enemy technology it's not always easy to reverse-engineer and sometimes you don't want to do that at all because your equipment might be better or cheaper to make.

Also, the idea that the Clan tech can just plug and play with IS mechs has always been stupid. Sure, it gives players more toys and such, but it's not logical. Over time I could see SOME of the tech being able to be used on IS mechs, etc...but not in the time frame we have been given.

If things are going bad for them early on, I think we would see a slow but steady change in their tactics. Honor Duels as they fought each would begin to slip to the wayside or be saved for that moment where it's useful for them. If the Clans have to slog through tough fighting just to get through Wave one, then we would likely see them dropping their One target per warrior honor thing, and going to shoot everything and kill it now like the Inner Sphere warriors. The issue with the Clan is that they violated the old maxim of military thinking, nothing survives contact with the enemy, and that's not going to change in the future. They would adapt to things and revamp their fighting styles, adjusting to a change in going for more engery-based weapons and more use of medium Omni-chassis for their main forces.

We would also see more of an effort to run enemy units to the ground, before moving on since they are finding out that if you don't then you are fighting on three fronts.

Now a real question for this, do the Dragoons still try to explain things to the Inner Sphere leaders, and will they even listen? I say this because even with things being quiet in the Inner Sphere more or less since the end of the 39 War, the hate between Houses hasn't gone away. So would the Combine and the FC listen to Wolf? And why would the CapCon even care, to them the fighting is several thousand light-years away, has no effect on their state, and really is a good thing for them because it weakens the FC, their main enemy. The FWL is closer, so to speak, to the fighting but they have more internal issues than an insane asylum has Lord Nelsons. As for the Raslhague League, yeah they need to listen but they are pretty much a dead nation walking.

Let me ask this, how are we figuring bogged down for the first two waves? What changes are there to cause the Clans not sweep in and over run worlds as in canon?
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/06/22 12:18 AM
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I agree with the taking of enemy equipment does not mean you can slap it on your unit and have it work properly.
As stated in the past about the different manufacturers of equipment, the connections will not match up. The concept of the pods was to allow equipment to be mounted on a platform that would attached to anything.
And there is problems with the software on equipment as well. Can the mechs targeting system really figure out the firing solution for a unit that fires further then anything the nation has?

I would think that the Dragoon meeting would not take place had the IS held or even pushed back the clans. I believe the year of peace was the only reason why the Dragoons even bothered, as the canon story had them losing to the clans.

Well first off is removing the BS that no one detected the incoming clan ships. The idea that the clans were able to get into orbit and hot drop before the defenders even knew they were there. The EM signature would tell the defenders something jumped in. The over use of this later in the story line suggests it was left out of the initial invasion for the very purpose of allowing the clans that surprise factor.
Second would be efficient use of vehicles. Unless elementals had stealth armor on them, they would be detected by all sensors, just like normal armor is. Non powered armor infantry is detected, so elementals should be even easier to find.
Given the time frame, it was about time for another round of fighting, so the FC/FRR/DC would have had their forces on higher alert. Response forces more ready to move out. The question is whether they would have used the black box set up to avoid Comstar, or fell for Comstar tricking them with the false information.
The canon story seemed to have major conflicts about every 10 or so years. 3039 to 3050 would be about right for another wave.
Given the house forces were supposed to be good enough to change tactics quickly, the fact that they could not do anything against the clans until Victor figured something out is a bit much.
SO there are multiple things that could/should change, that would cause issues for the clans. Remote sensor stations would be likely given the region was pirate playgrounds, should have told them something was up.
Karagin
06/06/22 08:32 AM
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All good points. Let me get done with work, and I will give what I see as bogged down to add-in. I do like the part about the Warships being detected since it's already in canon that jumpships coming through into a system can be detected.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/06/22 11:36 AM
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As satelites still exist and work in the time era, leaving one near the jump points would remove a lot of question on if something came in. Granted, it is possible that the ship is only stopping to recharge their drives, but it is far better then not knowing anything is there. So a manned station isn't necessary.
As a side note, a lot of 'surprise' attacks on worlds in the past canon, would not have happened, had this trick been done before the civil war era.
To further the station concept, I have not seen where the naval weapons were lost or recovered. As they would need to be done before warships came out, it is possible to have stations near or at the jump point armed with such weapons. Before the clans showed up with warships, the concept of using them to destroy incoming enemy fleets was possible. So raids using the space near these stations could well be destroyed by the station itself.
Side note: none of the canon station designs seem to have the space required to operate the naval weapons, despite being SL left overs that had those very weapons on them. The Bastion station is a prime example of this.

The use of armored vehicles, is one that really needs to be addressed. The ambush method that plagued so many attacks, were detected by the clans? That would mean the SL version of the AP should prevent this. That is unless the clans regular sensor suit is far more advanced then the SL was. We know elementals were not always with the mechs when in combat.
Given the clans honor, running an ecm would seem cowardly. And that does not block normal eyesight. This also ignored the sensor baffling materials that could have been used to set up ambush points. It is unlikely that even the Dire Wolf mech would survive a complete set of 4 Demolishers hitting it. In a prepared position, it should last long enough for a second volley against another mech.
There are other units that would have done well to take out clan mechs, forcing more damage and even bleeding ammo reserves before the mech on mech fights. This is a normal tactic in battles anyways, yet it seems to have been forgotten with the clan invasion.
Yes, they could well hot drop on top of enemy positions, but to do so, means back shots by units positioned further out. How fast they could respond and get there is the question. The clans using half the forces of the IS when they called the batchall would assist here as well.
Some of the worlds were raided so much, defensive positions would have already been done long before the clans showed up. Even mine fields would be laid, and not many clan units have APs. So given this, how many mechs actually suffered from mines? I believe only the Fire Moth would cause problems with this, due to speed. The other mechs were still limited to normal speeds.

As stated, the IS thought it was pirates at first. Yet losing worlds would still have brought forth more of a response then what was shown in the books. I don't remember seeing any hint of reinforcements to those worlds, and then seeing they never reported back.
Karagin
06/06/22 05:21 PM
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The Clans not liking vehicles is more of a throwback to the game being about mechs first and foremost. Yet they sell and market the game as a combined arms deal, yet only focus primarily on the mechs...yeah makes sense said no sane person.

The Clans should be a complete combined arms setup, mechs, vehicles, and infantry doing the front line fighting and artillery and aerospace doing the heavy damage fire support role. Not sure how old Nicky missed that in his revision of war.

The detection of jumpships/warships coming into a system ONLY seem to be important when the authors want to make things seem cooler than just saying a WoB warship jumped in and slagged a world. Lazy writing or forgetful writing is the real reason. or maybe an author doesn't understand how things work and won't take the time to look at the game background to give us the information. Some consider it boring and don't care what the fans think, because they are published and you are not. Actual had a former LD of Battletech tell me that. Too bad they didn't fire him sooner.

Losing worlds in Periphery to pirate attacks or failing infrastructure wasn't unheard of so several Bandit Kingdom worlds falling would not have even made the news in the bordering Houses.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/06/22 08:26 PM
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One more thing that wasn't really addressed in the books. The fact that Phelan Ward Kell was taken out by the 'pirates', and some of their unit got away with the data. So wouldn't that be reported back to Morgan Kell? At the very least, the FC would have sent out units to find out what was going on in the border areas sooner then they did. So that could be a way that the clans were countered sooner rather then later. Even if this was only the FC doing so.

The lost worlds I was talking about were house worlds on the border with the periphery. Such as those targeted in the first wave inside the IS. Having full regiments wiped out without any information would be highly unusual, It wouldn't be unique for either house to go around the FRR area to strike into the others area. Granted, the FRR would have made a few sloppy, as they did not expect things due to the FRRs stance.

The clans ignoring vehicles is a very large point that should have been exploited earlier in the game. A lance of mechs taunting the clans could have moved past a few ambush points, allowing the vehicles to take down the clans armor at the very least.
Yes, this was not known for a short while, but any combined arms defense force would have picked up on this quickly, as the clans would ignore vehicles moving against them. Even house units will at least fire on the vehicles.
Also part of this point, is if the clans waited until they destroyed one vehicle, others would avoid being hit until a little later, as a star of mechs would only target 5 units per weapons fire. So a battalion would at least get some shots off.

It is doubtful that all jumpships were stopped before jumping out when the clans invaded, so that information should have gotten somewhere, even with Comstar blocking everything it could. Simple intel operations would have relayed things like warship pictures thru more secured channels, such as paying the jumpship to take it to say Twycross in the beginning. If you want, the black box would have been stationed on a few major hub worlds, so that could be a second option.

Explorer companies didn't seem to be figured in either. Just one making it back, would have gotten the attention of the houses with live pictures of clan jumpships, warships, dropships, and even fighters. This could be verified as being real, not some holovid fakes.

The response of the rapid response forces could well have caught the second line units on worlds as the front line omnis moved on. This would have stalled the front lines some, as they would have to return to worlds they just left in order to retake them. Quiet surprise is what helped them to begin with. If not for Comstar blocking coms, I don't think the clans would have fared even close to what they did.
Karagin
06/06/22 09:26 PM
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They did report back, but who is going to believe a merc unit, even the Hounds, I mean Waterly put off the reports as a failure by the Hound commander to explain away getting Phelan killed.

FRR was not considered a real power, that was mentioned several times at the Outreach Conference. So, their reports of lost worlds would be likely laughed at by the other Houses. With the FC thinking the DC was allowing Ronin to do their thing again or an internal power struggle. DC would think the FC was playing games and taking worlds and the FRR wasn't going to beg for help. Not from the DC and very unlikely they would as the FC either.

Yes, the idea that the Clans ignored vehicles should have been something the FC and DC commanders should have been using to their advantage but alas the authors dropped that ball, among many. Infantry and inferno teams would have also been something to use a lot of, yes the Clan Omnis run cool, but fire scares everyone, and heat from those don't go away very fast so...but that too was barely mentioned and dropped out of even the faintest mention as the game moved forward with the Invasion. The Inner Sphere should have been using combine arms at all levels to harass the Clans across the front. The FC should have been pulling more frontline units forward and calling up the militias and such to backfill. A simple look at a map of the Inner Sphere as a whole would have been a clue to where the advance was heading.

However again the authors forget that space is 3D, and thus not a 1D map. That's why I like Keith's books because he keeps the real science in there and mixes it with fiction without it losing its appeal. The rest, meh on things and just write. And when they try, it's like it's added in after the fact to fill in gaps or as sound bytes, like on Star Trek.

I doubt ComStar would have allowed the info to be widespread, and it's easy to isolate a jumpship crew and the dropships. Very easy, oh you have this rare form of the Malvin Plague, so you have to be quarantined for the next 8 months. So that would keep things under wraps and out of the hands of the Houses. And if they leaked ComStar would claim fakes and set up a production company to prove their story, that would be if they wanted to, now they could let it leak, and hype it up even more. Like mixing in fake footage and showing the Clans as even more powerful, could be the key to getting the FC and DC to send more units to their border region that is now being attacked.

Now, here is the question, what does Waterly and ComStar gain by doing this? What would convince her to make it so the FC and DC blunt their war machine against the Clans in hard fighting? Could it be her plan that Scorpion came from or something akin to the Master pulling strings even then?
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/06/22 09:55 PM
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Do you think the FC command would have just blown off the report? We know Walterly would, as it was already established they were in talks, if not already helping the clans. So dismissal would be proper for Comstar.
And with this, Morgan would have done what he could to find out what was going on. Even without Phelan being there, he would not just ignore his people going missing like that. The data would be investigated, even if it meant just his resources to do so. Melissa would have pushed Hanse to just investigate things, especially when the LC was having the same hits.

The flamers is a good point. The elementals used in the initial invasion were not immune to flamers. Yet some how, that was ignored as a weapon for dealing with the elementals. The Salamander armor is the only one that I have seen immune to flamers. And inferno missiles as well. A single SRM carrier with infernos would have caused a full panic in the clan lines.

Comstar stopping the news only works if they are aware of the fleeing ships. I don't doubt they did infact stop a majority of the news, but some would not be broadcasting their news, but reporting to specific people. Such as the tech King in the Grey Death Legion was a Red Duke spy. Information sent that way would not be likely to be ignored, no matter what Comstar says. At least an investigation would be sent. When that fails to report back, then they would know something is wrong. Even if it was just a misjump, it would be investigated. At the invasion time, there was no wars going on to distract the leaders.

The Master and Scorpion may well have been part of an unexplored story line. Scorpion sounds like something Walterly would have done no matter who was involved in another succession war. The clans were to be used as a means to beat the FC and DC into the stone age. That was even promoted when Focht suggested other targets before he was told about Terra being the clans goal. So bleeding all so that she could rule a newly formed Star League could have been thought of back in the 4th succession war. She just needed the pieces in place. The clans provided that.
Thomas may well have convinced Walterly that the FWL would support it, as long as he was given leadership of the FWL.
With Focht in command, she may well have thought to have it all in the bag, until he turned on her with the original story line. Not sure if he would have done so with this concept. He may well have helped if promised the LC in exchange.
Interesting concept, that should be further fleshed out.
Karagin
06/07/22 11:21 PM
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All of this would make a good set of scenarios to really hash out, and while it does differ from canon, it's not far-fetched or really overstepping things.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/08/22 12:19 AM
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The issue can be the outcomes. They could range from almost nothing, to changing the entire storyline.
Simply beating the clans back could result in the full clan might coming into the IS, to just the 4 having their positions challenged, and losing with no further attacks until they build up their forces, which given the history, may never come. Only the best of the best mentality, would prevent them from growing their forces much, and the need for blood name challenges would really keep things to low numbers.

Thought just happened. The LRMs have incendiaries, but no inferno missiles. I wonder just how that would change the outcome to any battle in Battletech, not just the clan invasion.

Another possible thing would be a jumpship making the Intel rounds, checking up on things, using just pirate points, or places that the EM would not be detected. Much like the function of the Bugeyes, but without the high tech.

Other questions come to mind, such as if the FWL would have been producing the refit kits? Would it just be going to the DC? Would the FC gotten any? Would it continue if the IS did turn back the invasion and headed out into the periphery?
Would the IS follow them deep into the periphery? Would they stop once they hit the known pirate bases?

What happened to the SL/1st/2nd succession wars when Nukes hit the ships? I would think the EMP from the nuke would have shut down more then a few. The idea of using an EMP on jumpships and warships to knock out the jump drives to strand the ship in system. Even if it is just for a few minutes to restart the systems. This could well prevent the warships from being able to fire, as the targeting comps with all the electrical circuits needing to move the weapons to target each other comes to mind.
Grounding circuits would help, but with the entire ship being metal, what do they get grounded to? Airplanes hit by lighting just flows thru and continues out the other side.

The idea of using mines comes into effect as well, if you are fleeing from another ship, couldn't you seed the path with the mines to prevent the tail from catching you, as they would have to maneuver to avoid hitting them if jettisoned out the back end of a ship? Just simple pushing them out, should slow them down from the ships speed to allow them to reach those behind you.
Hmmm. A simple device could be made to do that as well. Something like a spring loaded stone thrower could suffice. Or a simple launcher, like the torpedo tubes on a sub, with just the air shoving the load out. Then again, remote shuttles or the teleoperated missiles could do the same thing.

But back to the discussion.

Another scenario would be Walterly deciding not to deal with the clans, as they are unknown to Comstar, so finding the hook to manipulate them might be a problem. Or the clans deciding that Comstar has been tainted by the IS corruption, so needs to be destroyed as well.
ghostrider
06/08/22 07:34 PM
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A few other things could have helped secure the borders some is a few issues with the FRR thinking they deserve more worlds. So a build up could have occurred because of this concept. Or maybe the FRR decided to put up a few cruddy worlds on the border for more military units, especially maybe even their neighbors guarding a few on a rotating basis. Enough to have warm bodies there, so they could use their own to go after some pirates.

A secret build up of forces is another idea, as they could be done by the FRR towards the 'top' of the IS, then used in the next war as a surprise to the DC or even FC/LC area. A few jumps down the border or even thru the FRR and hit the weaker border areas of the other. It would upset the FRR, but would give the idea user an advantage for a short while. Maybe even taking out a major depot or two.

The truth of Comstar arming the DC may well have gotten out and actually taken hold by the masses, which forced the DC to get more, or even able to convince Comstar to let them buy an actual warship or two. Yes, this one is a bit out there, but not impossible. The warship could be nothing more then a corvette or something small. Just enough to help take out any dropship fleets sent in. It could well be covered up by saying they were on a mission and the fleet showed up and fired on them. It wouldn't be like that excuse hasn't been used in the past.

Another possible option is that someone in Comstar decides Walterly has gone to far, and kills her, during or before the invasion. Not quite WOB, but the normal power struggle got violent. Or just a lone assassin. It could well be someone that hates the Combine for destroying whatever, forcing them to join Comstar, as nothing is left, and learning of the mech deal before 3039. It took a while to get things in place to do it, depending on when to perform this. It may well have been before the clans got in contact with Comstar.
Karagin
06/08/22 08:33 PM
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Here is something else to consider, maybe the FC feels the need to test ComStar after their little Interdiction trick, say right around 3045, not a huge war, just a quick raid into the Sol System, say hitting Titan or another moon and this raid allows the FC to get confirmation of the warships and such in mothball or maybe hints about the ComStar's ongoing research say into cyborg tech stuff. Then when the Clans hit in 3050, the FC isn't overly shocked the ComStar is playing games, and might use that to move against the HPGs, but might also hold their "intel" over ComStar's head to keep the HPGs running, etc...
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/08/22 09:32 PM
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I like that idea.
3045 also gives them a chance to figure out where the combine got all those unknown mechs that they used to counter the 3039 war.
It would be a real damning proof if the FC forces could actually take one of the warships from the holding areas.

Another thing might be proof that Comstar did not build the mechs they used to garrison the worlds after the interdiction. There had to have been multiple complaints that caches and depots seized after someone else found them, and finally linking it to Comstar. The attack on NAIS might well have borne fruit at this point as well.
Mechs like the Thug, Kintaro, and a few others would be a major question on why the DC happened to have a large number show up, and Comstar having them, yet no known manufacturer makes them at that time. The stripped down versions the DC has would raise questions of their own.

The big issue is spreading the news, as Comstar would definitely stop any transmissions or modify them when sent out. Jumpship messengers would need to be done.

I could see the future having issues if the raid did happen. The story line suggests WOB rebuilt the SDS systems, but what if they were active before the clan invasion? It might have been the last defense Comstar had against the clans.
If that was activated during the raid, it would show Comstar had been moving away from the supposed neutral position in the IS.
Karagin
06/08/22 10:26 PM
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The SDS was likely shut down by the SLDF, as they left and Blake had no reason to turn it back on, mainly because that would have drawn more attention to the Sol System. I am still a firm believer that all the reports we have seen in the sourcebooks about the Sol System have been outright lies by ComStar. Mainly to keep the Houses from prying and yes I am well aware of the counterargument that merchants and such would see anything that was not as they claimed, but it's not hard to keep people away from areas you don't want them to see and we have heard so much about the tight control ComStar had on the system and Terra. Yeah, I am sure that raid into the Sol System would have ComStar crapping kittens and opening mothball factories and re-arming starting as fast as they could make it happen.

The raid only really needs to happen, could be payback for the NAIS raid, and it would tip ComStar's hand in overreaction, since they did favor jumping at times before having facts.
Karagin

Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
ghostrider
06/09/22 02:07 AM
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I can see hiding things like even ship yards in a system. Unless you use a pirate point, you do not really pass planets on your way from the jump points to a world. So having the Titan yards, not sure what planet or moon they are around, though I believe Titan it a moon of Saturn, would not be visited by a ship. It is possible someone with a telescope may find the yards, but even that is questionable. Now if they are near Terra, then yes. They would definitely be seen.

I do find it odd that Comstar would not have worked on the system, even if just when the SL was falling. They would have kept it as a back up in case the houses decided to ignore the 'neutral' position they took to keep the coms working.

But I can see Comstar having a major fit if they were raided. Even just a recon raid to areas ships are off limit going to. Now it is possible that their mothballed fleets were at one of the hidden worlds, but if in the Sol system, they would be spotted. The fact they did make ships that the SL didn't would tip off the raiders something was built there, and not a left over from the SL.

Interesting thought is the raid may not even need to be detected, depending on the type of raid. A simple patrol thru the Sol system may yield the results wanted without tipping off Comstar. Unlikely, but possible.

I would think you are suggesting some sort of raid that does some damage. Maybe just taking out a patrol or something. Until Tukiyudd, I hadn't seen much mention of Comstar having fighter craft. I would be foolish to think they didn't have any, even before the deployment of their forces. But with this, would they have bought them from the houses or made them?
ghostrider
06/12/22 08:37 PM
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Another event that would have changed the entire outcome of the clan invasion may have been a simple misjump. Doesn't matter if it was IS or clan.
Had the ship with the khans on it, or even Victor's or Hohiro's jumpship was lost would have destroyed the timeline.
One other possible, though highly unlikely event, would be a misjump from the SL era showing up in before the invasion had begun. Enough time for the IS to start making warships, though the issue here is the same thing with warship production after the invasion. Comstar being the only one that could make the engines for the warships.

Another event that could have changed the invasion is if the Dragoons had told one of the houses about the clans, and brought in their warships and clan mechs to prove it. Just suggesting the omni concepts and showing it worked would have changed the outcome. Granted, the omni reveal may not have been a major change, so that is debatable.

The discovery of the Dragoon's stash is yet another possible change of the storyline. Depending on the year, it could very well have changed 3039 as well. Comstar may well have had to expose their plans before the clans ever showed up. As with the Helm Core, just the data files on one of those ships may well have brought out a few changes. Camelot Command being a major one. Had that been 'discovered' before 3050, it could have changed a lot of things. Just having a major shipyard near that border could have done much. Increasing the number of dropships and jumpships made without even touching warships, would have thrown off the numbers Comstar and the DC knew of the FC. Granted, it could be that a ship yard hidden in the other realms could have been found, changing the other houses outlook as well.
One scenario might well explain WOBs ability to pump out some warships, as the FWL might have had a hidden shipyard in it.
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