Requiem
08/10/21 07:02 AM
124.184.171.41
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Despite Hesperus II being a jointly held by the Terran Hegemony and the Lyran Commonwealth. The Hegemony had set up a manufacturing facility on-planet to manufacture BattleMechs.
During the Star League era the Star League BattleMech Manufacturer was Witten Industries who manufactured the Griffin, Sentinel, Galahad, Archer, Goliath, Banshee Atlas and the Manticore Heavy Tank.
Together with an Orbiting Shipyard.
My issue concerns the Amaris Coup era (2766 to 2780)
So, why in all the years of the Coup didn’t Amaris’ Forces initiate a planetary invasion, and in so doing hobble any SLDF attack into the Hegemony sometime close 2767-68-69 for example?
He could amass a massive new Amaris ‘Royal’ BattleMech Corps and attack!
Thoughts?
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Requiem
08/10/21 05:11 PM
124.184.171.41
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Hesperus II
Operation RUBICON’s objective – To eliminate SLDFs ability to manufacture BattleMech materials, whist also destroying their Command-and-Control facilities for the Lyran Commonwealth Operations Area (if applicable), on Hesperus II as possible.
(If you decide to make this an early battle in the War – this could be the First Major Battle and as such seen as crossing the Rubicon – hence the name)
Amaris fleet is to use non-standard jump points to reach Hesperus II – Jump off point could be the world of Summer.
Suggest considering this to be a Reverse Battle of Terra – where a massive Amaris Fleet engages the Defensive SLDF Fleet, to create an opening for their ground forces.
At this stage the Amaris ground forces can be either dispersed over the planet – or concentrated to gain access to the Mountain Facility.
If concentrated – suggest utilising Aerospace Arm in an attempt to pin the SLDF external Ground forces in place whist the main battle rages on …
Use of WMDs should be at the discretion of the GM – gaming group – personally I remove them from the game.
So, during the Amaris-Kerensky Conflict Hesperus II can be either a …
Major Logistical hub for the SLDF or a Regional Command and Control Facility for all SLDF operating within the Lyran Commonwealth
Both circumstances, suggest a SLDF reserve fleet of 100 plus Warships – if Logistical hub suggest adding a significant number of Jump-ships and Dropships engaged in transport activity.
Also – on world – numerous SLDF Corps are stationed over the world - if the timing of the battle is early in the war suggest they are in the process of building fortifications - whereas if several years have passed since hostilities commenced suggest fortifications are now complete.
Suggest Amaris fleet consisted over 100 warships escorting a ground invasion force of numerous Combined Arms Mech Corps Versus a similar number of SLDF warships and ground forces - or any combination you believe appropriate.
An then just have fun with this idea …
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Wick
09/11/21 06:39 PM
68.169.149.5
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Just because it was jointly owned doesn't mean its on the border. Hesperus II was a couple of jumps inside Lyran space. Amaris only had permission to deploy Rim World forces within Hegemony borders, not on shared worlds.
The ejection of the 20th Army from Rim World space moved the majority of its divisions into Lyran space along the Rim Worlds border, allowing the Armies usually covering Lyran space (11th, 12th, and 13th) to relocate and focus on worlds closer to the Hegemony, effectively making Lyran worlds over-protected at the time of the coup.
Everyone could see what was happening inside Hegemony space the last week of 2766 and throughout early 2767. No doubt all units, both SLDF and House, along the Hegemony borders were on high alert so a sneak attack on any significant world within a few jumps of the border (including Hesperus II) would likely not be that much of a surprise.
Additionally, with divisions from other armies pulled away from other areas across the Inner Sphere to launch a campaign into Rim Worlds Republic space, the Lyran area continued to grow in military occupancy throughout 2767 and 2768.
If Amaris wanted to conquer or disable factories outside the Terran Hegemony, he'd have a much easier time of it going after either Tikonov or Irian, which are both major sites within a single jump of a Hegemony world. Ultimately though I think he decided not to ruffle the feathers of his supposed Star League Councilmates (such as Robert Steiner II) - to do so would invite their wrath, and he had enough troubles dealing with the massive SLDF that avoiding war with a House army would have been desirable. Had Amaris won the war though, I could see him potentially going after Hesperus II in the 2780s or 2790s. 2766-2769 just doesn't seem like a good idea, militarily.
However, Amaris does have access to some of the Royal equipment factories not destroyed or sabotaged in 2767 within Hegemony space and could create some Royal divisions of his own if desired: Black Knight, Crab, Hermes, Ostscout, Phoenix Hawk, Sling, Stinger, and Warhammer (WHM-7A) mechs remain available to him, as are Rhino and Von Luckner tanks and the Trident fighter. He actually already has the equivalent of Royal regiments (though not divisions) already with the Amaris Dragoons, and they get the lion's share of this previously Royal-exclusive equipment from the factories in additional to new Royal-grade equipment like the Rampage RMP-5G.
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Requiem
09/12/21 08:04 PM
1.158.137.81
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Hesperus II was a couple of jumps inside Lyran space.
Summer (TH World) – 53.3 – Carsphairn – 28.5 - Hesperus
Need Permission – This is First Lord Amaris, he does not need the permission of anyone! His word is Law! (or so he would believe due to his megalomania)
Second Hesperus – even though it is a joinly owned world – where are the civilians on this world? There are none only workers, who work on a Fly In Fly Out basis, and that BattleMech Manufactory base!
At the early stages of the Amaris conflict Hesperus is wide open for invasion – and later on during the conflict it must have been used as a staging base by the SLDF – making it a Military Target!
Why limit the war to just those worlds within the TH? The SLDF raided inside but Amaris is not allowed to raid outside?
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If Amaris wanted to conquer or disable factories outside the Terran Hegemony, he'd have a much easier time of it going after either Tikonov or Irian
Problem is who owns these worlds – would Amaris want to expand the war?
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Amaris does have access to some of the Royal equipment factories
He does not have access to some – he has access to ALL the Royal factories … as all of them are within the TH …
However, the point is – why try to fight this story? – it is just a pretext for a hypothetical battle that anyone can enjoy as a basis for a game – it is never intended to be canon.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Wick
09/12/21 09:44 PM
68.169.149.5
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Two jumps is still a couple.
Amaris may be ruler of the Terran Hegemony, but that doesn't give him permission to do whatever he wants. Even the First Lord can't act on his own, he needs Council approval to act on many things. The other House lords certainly accepted him as the Terran Hegemony's new leader because they didn't care much for Richard Cameron after the Birthday proclamations and couldn't really do much to stop Amaris seizing control of the Hegemony anyway. But I think the House Lords only went so far as to consider Amaris their new equal, not greater than themselves (and perhaps, lesser still because he was a Peripherian.) And they would absolutely still consider their own nation as outside his jurisdiction, just as they had considered the Camerons for two hundred years. Invading Hesperus II would be an explicit act of war against the Lyran Commonwealth, whether initiated by a Cameron or Stephan Amaris.
A better method for taking out the Hesperus II factory would not be to launch a full scale war, but insert a small strike team to sabotage or destroy the factory. Maybe as a false flag blamed on Skye rebels or the Kuritans. This I think Amaris might be able to pull off without directing the ire of Michael Steiner and the Estates General - and maybe get the Houses fighting amongst themselves while he builds his new power base. (In fact, I'm surprised Amaris didn't get the Houses fighting amongst themselves. It would have slowed down the SLDF's advance and weakened the other Houses while the Amaris Empire continued to grow more powerful militarily through the Hegemony's factories.)
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If Amaris wanted to conquer or disable factories outside the Terran Hegemony, he'd have a much easier time of it going after either Tikonov or Irian
Problem is who owns these worlds – would Amaris want to expand the war?
But isn't this exactly what you're arguing for? Why is invading the Lyran Commonwealth a yes but Confederation or FWL a no? Because its a shared world? His forces would still have to jump through Lyran owned systems to attack. In fact, the system itself is technically Lyran, only the planet's surface is shared territory.
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Amaris does have access to some of the Royal equipment factories
He does not have access to some – he has access to ALL the Royal factories … as all of them are within the TH …
Now be reasonable. He CAN'T have access to the ones destroyed or sabotaged. The list of units I provided are the ones known to continue being built after 2767. Many of the factories did not survive the first year of the coup. Amaris's takeover was not immediate or without contest. Some worlds (like New Dallas) put up a fight. The factories for royal versions of the Atlas II, Crusader, Wyvern, Ahab, Nightshade, and maybe a few others were all lost in 2767. Others, like the Exterminator line on Caph, are apparently sabotaged or denied critical equipment from an outside supplier to be able to continue producing Royal models.
Amaris might have access to all models of Royal equipment, by emptying caches, warehouses, or taking the last production runs from factories that hadn't yet been shipped off, but if the factories are out of commission he's not making any more. If Amaris managed to acquire 5 to 10 Atlas IIs, that's fair. But 5 to 10 Atlas IIs out of the 85,000 or so mechs the Amaris Empire had at its height in 2772 aren't making any significant difference. He needs hundreds of a particular model to be significant, and needs factories to make that happen.
And not all Royal factories were within Hegemony borders, A few were outside. The Thunderbolts were produced on Tikonov for example, under the purview of the Hegemony Research & Development Department to ensure its output of TDR-5Sbs went solely to Royal units. The SLDF remains in control of the output of this factory's Royal equipment throughout the war, with it falling into Capellan hands upon the Exodus (and the Capellans continue building Royal Thunderbolts for their own use until 2823 when they finally have to downgrade to the TDR-5L, per 2nd SW source book p116.) And additional factories outside the Hegemony were given the specs for Royal equipment after the coup. The Atlas II for example is resumed at Hesperus II in 2769.
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Requiem
09/12/21 10:46 PM
1.158.137.81
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Two jumps is still a couple.
To jumps in empty space is still empty space
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Amaris may be ruler of the Terran Hegemony, but that doesn't give him permission to do whatever he wants. Even the First Lord can't act on his own
Ever suggested you can’t do something to a megalomaniac … does not go down well
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he needs Council approval to act on many things.
There is a war starting which will decide whether he is allowed to for this very issue … until then there will be no council meetings …. so Really?????
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they would absolutely still consider their own nation as outside his jurisdiction,
You do realise this argument does not hold water? – consider the Hidden Wars as an example. The SLDF is allowed to enter any House for the express purposes stopping hostilities / pirates / renegade units etc … so unless the House Lords put their forces on the front line as a shield for the Kerensky SLDF (as they did when using ‘mercs’ to fight each other) the Amaris SLDF has all the right to come in and hammer these renegade forces
As Amaris has declared himself the new First Lord – he can designate his forces the new SLDF and he can designate Kerensky a traitor and those forces with him renegade.
Thus from a legal point of view YES this problem is within his jurisdiction and yes he can attack renegade forces on any world where controlled by renegade Star League elements – Thus the entire situation is within his jurisdiction …
Just as the First Lord is allowed to stop an illegal war he is also allowed to put down renegades … and until someone kicks him off the throne militarily or the House in question publicly sides with Kerensky he is still the technical head of the Star League by virtue of him sitting in the throne and as none of the house lords have publicly stated otherwise - he is allowed to act as the de-facto First Lord in this !
So, No this is not starting a war with the Lyrans it is the Loyal SLDF (Amaris) putting down the renegade SLDF (Kerensky) as the Archon does not have the guts to stand up in public and state that Amaris is not the First Lord and as a consequence the Lyrans are at war with this Userper.
This is the legal issue here!
Just as Kerensky has free movement within the IS so too does the Loyal SLDF (Amaris) ….
Thus as it stands the entire IS is now in a position of Legal Limbo as to how they treat the issue of legal and not legal when it comes to which SLDF they will allow / disallow … one wrong step and your house is now allied either Amaris or Kerensky and your Houses military is now fighting also in this war …
No one ever said being Neutral in a fighting war was easy … especially until one side or the other is victorious will we know the outcome …
Case in point US War of independence … when was it declared Free and when was it enforced Free … until one side leaves the stage we will not know the true legal position
As for the Thunderbolts I did not know this … thank you for updating me with this.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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ghostrider
09/12/21 11:24 PM
45.51.181.83
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SO Amaris would risk pushing the houses firmly into Kerensky's camp by attacking them? They are the main reason why he was on the throne for so long. Simply shutting down resources going into the TH would have destroyed Amaris's ability to build that much more. And to have them actively start hitting his forces?
Declaring you are the First Lord, and it being accepted, not just lip service is not the same thing. Even House Kurita was not behind Amaris taking the TH. It was blackmail/hostage taken that kept them out of it. Suggesting that Amaris would go out and raid the houses and believe this would NOT set them off against him shows something missing. Their own people were already calling for their leaders to help Kerensky remove Amaris, but any sort of raids would have open rebellion on a lot of worlds denouncing not only Amaris but the house leaders as well.
The fact that all the houses signed on, allowing the SLDF to enter their states and deal with the threat to avoid all out war has nothing to do with the fact they did so? Imagine that. A treaty that did what it was there for. And now it is being called into question about it following the meaning of the treaty.
Amaris was only the head of the TH, not the SL. Once the Cameron line was killed, the TH stopped being head of the SL. It would have to be settled in the courts after this, and that couldn't be done while at war with Kerensky. As protector of the SL, he was indeed the legal successor to Cameron. Surprising this fact is missing.
But I will leave Wick to continue this.
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Requiem
09/13/21 05:47 AM
1.158.137.81
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SO Amaris would risk pushing the houses firmly into Kerensky's camp by attacking them?
Comprehension of what is written above says otherwise.
All the Houses have taken the position of Neutrality and it is a war between two forces who are representing themselves as the SLDF and if the Amaris can be considered the next First Lord, by right of coup …
By Law the SLDF has access to the entire IS –
Remember what the Lyran Archon Robert II said about not wanting to get involved with the war “ Who knew whether we would gain anything by helping General Kerensky? If he won without our help, we would still have been among the Council to choose who would become the next First Lord. If he lost, then Stefan Amaris would still have had to deal with us, fighting us if he dared. Either way we would be in control. If we had chosen to fight with General Kerensky, our military would have been even more decimated than it is today, and how would we have defended ourselves in the terrible years to come.”
Thus quite simply put the Leaders of the great houses were playing the long game of Neutrality for this war.
They would accept both sides destroying each other no matter where, just as long as they did not get drawn into this current conflict – as they were contemplating the war after this one!
And publicly they could very easily put say that the war is between two SLDF factions one Loyal and one Renegade without getting into specifics – and state that until all the legal issues have been rectified it was beyond their ability to interfere (at this time).
Or how else are you going to allow Kerensky’s SLDF on your worlds? As by extension this is approval of his side – and this may draw you into a war you do not want to get involved in … they are now a legitimate legal military target as far as Amaris is concerned …
Again this is taking the position of neutrality between two forces over the issue of Legal sovereignty …
However, as far as the Houses are concerned this is their one chance to get out from under the yoke of the First Lord and the SLDF – they are not concerned with where they will fight (though they would prefer it remain to the TH) just as long as they both obliterate each other so that they can then engage in the second war to come over the replacement to the First Lord ….
I would like to point out one very interesting point at this time ….
Gereneral Kerensky is supposed to be an intelligent individual, correct?
And as such shouldn’t he have realized that this was the Great Houses long term plan to begin with – to allow the SLDF and Amaris decimate each other so that one of them could then become the First Lord?
And by extension if he was to ensure there could never be subsequent war for the throne the only way he could ensure this could never occur was by ensuring that the SLDF came out of the Amaris conflict as intact as possible – as with a sizeable navy and army he would then be able to dictate terms to the House Lords due to the size of his military might?
Thus by extension as 95% of all his forces were decimated doesn’t this show that he was incredibly short-sighted when it cane to the political realities of the times?
So short sighted in fact this could be used as proof to demonstrate when it comes to proving his appointment to the position was just a political move to appoint an inept General one everyone thought they could manipulate for their own end – and when it came to war and politics he was incompetent – hence the 95% destruction of the SLDF and by extension the succession wars ….
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Wick
09/14/21 07:32 PM
68.169.149.5
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You do realise this argument does not hold water? – consider the Hidden Wars as an example. The SLDF is allowed to enter any House for the express purposes stopping hostilities / pirates / renegade units etc … so unless the House Lords put their forces on the front line as a shield for the Kerensky SLDF (as they did when using ‘mercs’ to fight each other) the Amaris SLDF has all the right to come in and hammer these renegade forces
The SLDF's express purpose is to defend the territorial integrity of the member houses and its peoples. What got John Davion so upset was that the SLDF did not perform this duty right away in the War of Davion Succession when Draconis forces were invading FedSuns territory. The SLDF is not supposed to take unilateral offensive action against a member state, and only first does against the RWR and later the former Terran Hegemony now Amaris Empire (earlier actions in the Reunification War were to force the periphery states into becoming Star League territories, but they were not yet so, having refused to sign the Star league Accords.)
What you're arguing for is Amaris to initiate offensive action against another member state, which is in fact war, not a privilege of the First Lord to do as he wishes. Technically speaking, Kerensky's campaign against the RWR and Terran Hegemony were illegal actions by the same measure, as he did not have explicit Council support, but no one was really willing to put themselves at risk to stop the mighty SLDF juggernaut outside of Amaris himself. (And the lack of Council approval was later used as part of the justification by the remaining five Council lords to relieve Kerensky of command after the war.)
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As Amaris has declared himself the new First Lord – he can designate his forces the new SLDF and he can designate Kerensky a traitor and those forces with him renegade.
While Amaris no doubt had some SLDF loyalists who defected to him and had his RWR and Terran Division forces, proclaiming them as the new SLDF would only be for show. It's still significantly smaller than Kerensky's SLDF, which retains the vast majority of troops. Amaris did proclaim Kerensky a traitor and his forces as renegades, but it had little impact.
However, I'm not sure he would proclaim his forces as the new SLDF, merely the new equivalent of the HAF. The Periphery leaders typically did not like the Star League or any of its trappings, especially the SLDF, viewing it as a bully force of the House lords to inflict their will upon the smaller Periphery states. (The House Lords themselves were also starting to view the SLDF as too big a threat to their own security, especially since the Birthday Proclamations tried to make the SLDF the only standing military.)
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Just as the First Lord is allowed to stop an illegal war he is also allowed to put down renegades … and until someone kicks him off the throne militarily or the House in question publicly sides with Kerensky he is still the technical head of the Star League by virtue of him sitting in the throne and as none of the house lords have publicly stated otherwise - he is allowed to act as the de-facto First Lord in this !
Well if you want to write your psuedo-canon stories to describe how Amaris could do this, fine. But he didn't, and the expected reasoning is that he couldn't without risking war with the Lyran state. He didn't need a couple hundred regiments of Lyran troops pushing across the Hegemony border while he's putting down revolts on the worlds not yet firmly under his control and trying to prepare for the inevitable showdown with the SLDF in a few years. He needed to control the Hegemony with as a little loss to his own forces as possible (and was probably more successful at it than planned, minus a few troublesome worlds like New Dallas.) After he'd established firm control over the Hegemony, he needed to ramp up military production as much as possible to prepare for the SLDF, which in 2767-2769 still outnumbered him at least 2-to-1 thanks to a century and a half of build-up and Inner Sphere-wide recruiting. A war with the Lyrans, or any other state, risked foiling this buildup, ensuring a swift defeat when the SLDF returned from the Rim Worlds to retake the Hegemony. Even without fighting the Lyrans, he never produced enough war materiel to stop them in canon. It would have been worse had he wasted time fighting a second foe he didn't need to fight, in a vain effort to destroy a factory that is one of hundreds. (Even if Amaris had succeeded in destroying the Hesperus factory, the Atlas II and other mechs might well have been built elsewhere.)
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Just as Kerensky has free movement within the IS so too does the Loyal SLDF (Amaris) ….
What is the gain here? If the Lyrans allow Kerensky to move through Lyran space and devastate the RWR, the Rim Worlds worlds could be easily conquered by the Lyran Commonwealth once the SLDF has left. Which is exactly what happened.
If the Lyrans refuse and side with Amaris, Kerensky probably finds another way to the RWR anyhow by skirting the Periphery, and now the LCAF is facing a SLDF opponent that outnumbers it approximately 13 to 1 in 2770. If desired, the SLDF could blow through Lyran space, stopping to conquer Tharkad (and hang the Archon) on the way before tackling the Hegemony. And highly unlikely Amaris would give up Hegemony territory around Summer to make such a bargain worthwhile. Probably would have helped Amaris if the Lyrans sided with him on this, but they didn't.
Given the choice between potentially dozens of new worlds and devastation of their own, the Lyrans would wisely have sided with Kerensky and treated any movement of Amaris troops into or through their space as an act of war, even if they held no such restriction on Hegemony or Rim Worlds troops before the coup. The political (and military) landscape changed with the coup, and what was allowable before is not necessarily so after. Amaris would have realized the Lyran position forced them to accept Kerensky and the SLDF moving through Lyran space (even the Lyrans didn't really want them there they had little power to stop them) and wisely kept his own troops within Hegemony borders. I've even seen stories of RWR transports moving through Kuritan space rather than a direct course through Lyran space, which gives some credibility to the view that Lyran space was effectively off-limits for Amaris, First Lord or not.
No matter what Amaris wanted to do, or felt he had the right to do, there were still limits on what he could and should do, if he was going to win a war against a superior foe.
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Gereneral Kerensky is supposed to be an intelligent individual, correct?
And as such shouldn’t he have realized that this was the Great Houses long term plan to begin with – to allow the SLDF and Amaris decimate each other so that one of them could then become the First Lord?
I'm sure he and his subordinates realized this, but what choice did they have but to fight Amaris? The only saving grace, they must have assumed, is that after the war the survivors would be able to rebuild the SLDF to maintain the peace. When it was clear that wasn't going to happen, they left.
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Requiem
09/15/21 02:50 AM
1.158.137.81
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What you're arguing for is Amaris to initiate offensive action against another member state, which is in fact war, not a privilege of the First Lord to do as he wishes.
Sorry, but no war today, as this is a legal issue to which no house lord wants to be attached to.
The issue revolves around that of legal sovereignty and the rights of the SLDF.
As noted above –“ John Davion so upset … the SLDF did not perform this duty right away in the War of Davion Succession when Draconis forces were invading FedSuns territory”
First Lord Amaris and the rightful SLDF are performing their duty right away, in protecting each House’s realm, by putting down a renegade and their mutineers (Kerensky’s SLDF) who have illegally placed bases upon House Worlds.
This is all quite above board and Legal .. that is unless you want to say it is illegal at which point your House will be declared reengaged and will also be fair game – a point every House is desperately trying to avoid as they are attempting to re-arm as quickly as possible for the 1st Succession War.
Thus due to Legal manoeuvring and politics all House lords are caught between the here and now and the future of becoming First Lord.
All in all it would be better to just let Amaris and Kerensky obliterate each other – at the sacrifice of some internal border worlds so that when the second war starts for the Throne each House will be in the best position available.
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It's still significantly smaller than Kerensky's SLDF, which retains the vast majority of troops. Amaris did proclaim Kerensky a traitor and his forces as renegades, but it had little impact.
And yet in the Canon scenario Kerensky sat outside for how many years, doing absolutely nothing, whilst Amaris built a force that killed off 95% of the Kerensky’s Renegade SLDF …
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The Periphery leaders typically did not like the Star League
As long as Amaris kept his word, they really wouldn’t care what he did.
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Well if you want to write your psuedo-canon stories to describe how Amaris could do this, fine. But he didn't, and the expected reasoning is that he couldn't without risking war with the Lyran state.
As stated above in his speech this Archon is going to turn a blind eye to anything Amaris does just so long as at the end of the day both Amaris and Kerensky’s forces are both decimated.
As with this the ultimate prize is up for grabs – First Lord.
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What is the gain here? If the Lyrans allow Kerensky to move through Lyran space and devastate the RWR, the Rim Worlds worlds could be easily conquered by the Lyran Commonwealth once the SLDF has left. Which is exactly what happened.
And what happens if you use Amaris’s SLDF to pin down Kerensky’s SLDF whist your spies mediate with the opposition within the RWR to assist with them gaining independence from Amaris – you can then either 1. Have an ally for the upcoming war for the throne or 2. Absorb the RWR into the LC with next to no damage whatsoever – what would their production facilities provide for the upcoming war for the Throne ?
Being devious is so much fun!
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No matter what Amaris wanted to do, or felt he had the right to do, there were still limits on what he could and should do
He is limited only by what the House Lords are going to let him get away with and at this point in time they want him as a cats paw to kill of Kerensky’s SLDF as with that the throne is up for grabs.
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I'm sure he and his subordinates realized this, but what choice did they have but to fight Amaris?
Not sitting outside doing nothing for many years would be a start – and initiate a blitzkrieg straight at Terra when Amaris's forces are at their lowest would be a start. Thus minimizing the damage done to the SLDF and in so doing maintaining law and order (no Succession War) through the threat of having the largest military.
By not minimising the damage done to his SLDF this clearly demonstrates that he did not understand what was really going on with regards to every House’s Neutrality.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
Edited by Requiem (09/15/21 02:56 AM)
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Wick
09/16/21 06:43 PM
68.169.149.5
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All in all it would be better to just let Amaris and Kerensky obliterate each other – ... so that when the second war starts for the Throne each House will be in the best position available.
We're in agreement here, though not on how we arrive to this point.
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And yet in the Canon scenario Kerensky sat outside for how many years, doing absolutely nothing, whilst Amaris built a force that killed off 95% of the Kerensky’s Renegade SLDF …
He was sitting around doing nothing? Last I checked it took several months to muster his troops from across the Inner Sphere to Lyran base camps before invading the RWR. Kerensky himself was on the Taurian front when the coup took place, which is about as far as one can be.
Then it was two and a half years or so to conquer the RWR.
After subduing the RWR in early 2770 (or thereabouts), he had to rebuild regiments lost or weakened by the Rim Worlds campaign, and redeploy his forces to surround the Terran Hegemony (taking several more months for Task Force Confederation and Task Force Suns to take up position)
Then the invasion of the Hegemony begins in full July 14, 2772 (with some probing actions taking place as early as May 2711).
So Kerensky's not really sitting in a rocking chair twiddling his thumbs. Unquestionably the later months of 2770 and early months of 2771 are relatively light, and perhaps also travel during first half of 2772, but he was building strength and moving his chess pieces into position. And his troops probably needed some relief before the second -- and more dangerous -- half of the war began.
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And what happens if you use Amaris’s SLDF to pin down Kerensky’s SLDF whist your spies mediate with the opposition within the RWR to assist with them gaining independence from Amaris – you can then either 1. Have an ally for the upcoming war for the throne or 2. Absorb the RWR into the LC with next to no damage whatsoever – what would their production facilities provide for the upcoming war for the Throne ?
I'm not sure how Amaris is pinning down the SLDF here. His forces in the Rim Worlds were much smaller than the SLDF, and generally denuded of the best equipment (which went to his Terran Divisions.) The Rim World's government was doomed to failure. At best, the Rim Worlds forces could fight a delaying action to give time for the Terran component to build up to a size and strength able to compete with the SLDF. The fact they lasted for two and a half years outnumbered a good 20:1 or so is a pretty good showing. (Especially compared to the Capellans, who took a similar beating in the 4th Succession War in half the time against an opponent only 2-3 times their size.)
Kerensky was already negotiating with the Rim World's opposition (the RRA). The RRA wasn't going to listen to an Archon if they had Kerensky's ear. Whether Archon Robert wanted an ally in the upcoming Succession Wars or the factories of the RWR to help him fight it, he had to defer to Kerensky's will and let the SLDF conquer the RWR and then wait until the SLDF had left before he could make either move.
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and initiate a blitzkrieg straight at Terra when Amaris's forces are at their lowest would be a start.
Possibly. But at the time they did not now how much material Amaris had kept secret (which was several hundred regiments-worth of mechs alone.) And they wouldn't know until they'd gone to the RWR to find out. For all the SLDF knew, Amaris could have had two or three times as much hidden material as he actually had, which would have outnumbered the SLDF in total. A blitzkrieg may have ultimately weakened the SLDF in the long run, as Amaris reinforcements from secret caches arrived to wipe out their flanks. Kerensky had to ensure he wasn't the one being surrounded or outnumbered, and that meant conquering the RWR first, rather than going right into the Hegemony. (A not too disimilar event played out in the early Jihad, when the AMC and its allies were decimated by WoB Shadow Divisions.)
Hindsight being 20/20 though, if Kerensky had known the true amount of Amaris' secret material, attacking the Hegemony first in 2767 would have been the better move, as it would have been a shorter war, with a stronger SLDF and weaker Amaris Empire Armed Forces than they were in 2772.
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Requiem
09/17/21 03:23 AM
1.158.137.81
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He was sitting around doing nothing?
Important dates Re: Amaris Civil War
Start Date December 27th 2766
Conquering the Rim Worlds Republic – why? Kerensky believed that the Rim Worlds Republic were acting as Amaris’ support base
Start Date August 2767
End - 2769
Operation Chieftan
Start Date July 14th 2772
Objective – Retaking the Terran Hegemony Worlds
2773 – Lyran Commonwealth invasion of Rim Worlds Republic
2775 – Lyran Commonwealth annexes much of the Rim Worlds Republic at the end of the Republic-Commonwealth War
Operation Liberation
Start Date January 23rd 2777
End Date September 29th 2779 – Amaris Captured
Terra Liberated October 2779
October 29th Stefan Amaris and his family are executed.
OK,
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months to muster his troops from across the Inner Sphere to Lyran base camps before invading the RWR.
Lyran Commonwealth
SLDF – 1th, 12th and 13th Army
Draconic Combine
SLDF – 14th, 15th and 16th Army
Periphery – 20th Army
(which is using a sledge hammer of 7 Armies to crack an egg, the remaining forces Amaris did not take with him to the Terran Hegemony)
You would assume that a combination of these forces can be assigned to the Destruction of the RWR – which started 8 months after the Coup.
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Then it was two and a half years or so to conquer the RWR.
Ended sometime in 2769
However, and I do say a big however, those SLDF unassigned include
Very small remnants of the 1st Army
Federated Suns, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th
Capellan Confederation 5th, 6th and 7th
Free Worlds League 8th, 9th and 10th
Periphery remnants of the 17th, 18th 19th
At a conservative estimate 10 Armies
Operation Chieftan
Start Date July 14th 2772 – which started 66 moths after the coup started
So if an invasion of the RWR by approximately 7 Army groups can commence in 8 months
Why would 10 Army groups take 66 months?
Thus the comment “He was sitting around doing nothing? “ does have a degree of credibility to it when you consider it took 66 months to commence the Terran Hegemony Campaign.
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I'm not sure how Amaris is pinning down the SLDF here.
Deep strikes at some of the most important worlds to the SLDF
Hesperus II - BattleMech Manufacturer was Witten Industries who manufactured the Griffin, Sentinel, Galahad, Archer, Goliath, Banshee Atlas and the Manticore Heavy Tank. Together with an Orbiting Shipyard.
FWL – Helm – Nagayan Mountain Complex – Largest munitions dump constructed.
As well as others – all designed to disrupt the SLDF Logistics – stop their timetable down in order to provide Amaris with the time he needed to build an Army to defeat Kerensky’s SLDF ….
(Thus providing the reason for why the First Invasion should be considered for this point in time!)
I still believe it should be considered on the basis of its merits – and even if anyone does not agree – just as a stand alone game that can be considered apocryphal to canon wouldn’t it make for a fun game that is outside of canon that is just made for the fun of it?
Thus the question needs to be asked as to why go after the RWR at this time – as it is clear to see that the RWR could in no way ever assist Amaris if Kerensky put a blockade in place rather than an invasion – also why not invade both at the same time?
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he had to defer to Kerensky's will and let the SLDF conquer the RWR and then wait until the SLDF had left before he could make either move.
Question what is the point of going in and taking over a realm that has had its complete military industrial capability plus much of its civilian capability ripped out? And will take an astronomical amount of money and time to rebuild – this money however would be considered better spent in the military procurement as you do want to become First Lord when the 2nd War commences – the war for the throne!
The ONLY point of going in and taking over the RWR is if you can take it over undamaged and intact so that when the 2nd War commences – the war for the throne – you are now in a better position than that of prior to the Amaris Coup!
As we both agreed – “All in all it would be better to just let Amaris and Kerensky obliterate each other – at the sacrifice of some internal border worlds so that when the second war starts for the Throne each House will be in the best position available.”
Thus it is in the best interest of the Archon to get in first and discuss with the RWR rebel faction first a means of preserving the RWL – however now under Lyran Supervision – that will force Kerensky to back off!
So what choice does the RWR rebels have
Absorption into the FC and a chance of preserving the realm or fight the SLDF and ensure total destruction?
Not much of a choice.
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Amaris could have had two or three times as much hidden material as he actually had
And would still not reach the 2-3 army Level
Where Kerensky should have at least 10 outside
That still places the SLDF at 3 to 5 times the size of Amaris.
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as Amaris reinforcements from secret caches arrived to wipe out their flanks.
If you put 10 army groups on Terra in one massive Blitzkrieg through unidentified systems do you believe any Amaris forces would come to Amaris’s aid on Terra. Or do you believe they would all decide its really not worth it and leave in the hope of saving their own skin at this stage?
And yes I do agree ….
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if Kerensky had known the true amount of Amaris' secret material, attacking the Hegemony first in 2767 would have been the better move, as it would have been a shorter war, with a stronger SLDF and weaker Amaris Empire Armed Forces than they were in 2772.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
Edited by Requiem (09/17/21 03:23 AM)
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ghostrider
09/17/21 03:39 PM
45.51.181.83
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A meglomaniac keeping his word that he would not attack those that did not bow to him in worship? Why does this sound like a fairy tale?
Having the entire SLDF network, especially coms, in the hands of Amaris, and the concept of conflicting orders being sent out doesn't come to mind? Not all the SLDF under Kerensky was supportive of attacking the TH.
Now the question that shows no real thought before asking. Why take territory that provides no instant financial gain?
The fact is you take territory for other reasons such as resources they have, that you need. To make sure the enemy doesn't take them and set up bases in which to strike at you. The people are needed to do things like grow food, and even work in your own jobs, helping you expand your own manufacturing base. Maybe even them becoming the infantry fodder you need to strike at your enemies, or protecting your own. The cost to fix factories tends to be less then building new structures comes to mind. As said before, just stopping the flow of resources to those manufacturing plants will stop them from producing. It is not a smart idea to bombard those facilities into oblivion from orbit. It happens, but it isn't smart.
The nations WILL strike back against Amaris if he institutes attacks on their worlds. They have to in order to keep the 'respect' that they are NOT slave nations to the TH/SL as well as Amaris. The SL is NOT the leader of those other nations. This means you do not get to attack worlds in their care. If nothing else, it shows the other nations that you WILL attack them in the future. It will happen, even if it is nothing more then you telling Amaris no on something. He is the all powerful lord of the IS. To deny him means you need to die.
And with the fact Amaris thought he could win against Kerensky, why would you attack potential allies, and destroy facilities that you would own once the upstart is dealt with? Hesperus factories are SL property after all. You would have to rebuild it, in order to gain anything from it. Why waste the funds?
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Requiem
09/18/21 12:43 AM
1.158.137.81
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All can be explained by considering what is best for the Leader of each House at this stage – how can each House maximise their resources, in order to maximise their military industrial complex, without undue warfare to reduce the maximisation amount each is striving for? - for the oncoming 1st Succession War is fast approaching and the aim is becoming the new First Lord once Kerensky and Amaris destroy each other.
As this is what is really being considered by each House Lord at this stage and nothing else – especially not the welfare of a few insignificant worlds that are being garrisoned by the SLDF.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Wick
09/19/21 12:10 PM
68.169.149.5
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End - 2769
Technically, this is when Apollo fell and the RWR government collapsed, not the end of armed resistance. H:LoT1 p110 indicates this lasted until early 2770.
And apparently enough pro-Amaris followers remained (or retook power in 2772 after the SLDF had left) to justify Robert Stiner's response to invade the RWR. Dornax even wanted a few divisions of the SLDF to remain behind to help keep the peace. So it seems unlikely 2770-2272 were not without conflict. (Not enough to warrant the entire SLDF, but enough that assume Kerensky wasn't just sitting on his hands as you propose.)
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Operation Chieftan
Start Date July 14th 2772
Objective – Retaking the Terran Hegemony Worlds
Operation Liberation
Start Date January 23rd 2777
Are you suggesting there's a couple years between 2772 and 2777 where Kerensky wasn't doing anything? The Terran Hegemony was hundreds of worlds, not just Terra. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. I'm not disputing the dates. I am saying that there was a lot going on between them though.
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months to muster his troops from across the Inner Sphere to Lyran base camps before invading the RWR.
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So if an invasion of the RWR by approximately 7 Army groups can commence in 8 months
Why would 10 Army groups take 66 months?
Again, this is based on lack of knowledge about Amaris's true strength. You are arguing from a point of full knowledge. If Amaris had twice the firepower he actually had, those Army groups would have been wiped out and Kerensky could not have possibly completed the war.
The SLDF did not know how many regiments Amaris had under his control until at least late 2769. Therefore you can not argue this was known to them in 2767. Instead, Kerensky mustered his entire force to attack the RWR on the chance Amaris outnumbered him, and then repeated the process with the Hegemony. Splitting his forces against not one, but now two foes of unknown size would have been bad strategy.
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Deep strikes at some of the most important worlds to the SLDF
Hesperus II
FWL
We've gone over this already. It's not practical for Amaris to make enemies of the House Lords, and those House Lords may have an eye on these facilities for themselves in the upcoming War and will seek to protect them with their own troops if they need to. (Kenyon Marik certainly seemed of this opinion.)
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Thus the question needs to be asked as to why go after the RWR at this time – as it is clear to see that the RWR could in no way ever assist Amaris if Kerensky put a blockade in place rather than an invasion – also why not invade both at the same time?
The RWR clearly had a large number of factories and unknown caches of equipment to supply Amaris with the troops to perform the coup Hegemony-wide. How much was not known, but it was clearly enough to warrant the SLDF stopping such production, and destroying or taking possession of those caches themselves. Interstellar Expeditions was finding RWR outposts in the deep periphery centuries after the war, indicating the SLDF still hadn't found many of the sites.
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Thus it is in the best interest of the Archon to get in first and discuss with the RWR rebel faction first a means of preserving the RWL – however now under Lyran Supervision – that will force Kerensky to back off!
So what choice does the RWR rebels have
Absorption into the FC and a chance of preserving the realm or fight the SLDF and ensure total destruction?
Not much of a choice.
So the rebels should align with House Steiner, whose army is woefully smaller than Amaris's? Instead of aligning with the SLDF whose army is at least comparable (and in truth, bigger)?
You're right. Its not much of a choice. But not the one you suggest.
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And would still not reach the 2-3 army Level
Where Kerensky should have at least 10 outside
That still places the SLDF at 3 to 5 times the size of Amaris.
Between the two nations (RWR and AE), Amaris had something between 500 and 800 mech regiments between 2767 and 2769, with a commensurate amount of conventional hardware and infantry as well (greater percentage of mechs in Terran Divisions, more conventional in RWR.)
The SLDF in 2767 was around 1250 mech regiments (with all of its non-mech regiments as well), following a couple years of swift decline in the Periphery Uprising campaigns.
Thus, it's much closer to the two times I suggest than the 3-5 you do. 2-3 armies would certainly not have been enough to tackle Amaris even with the size of force he actually had, let alone the larger one the SLDF feared he might.
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If you put 10 army groups on Terra in one massive Blitzkrieg
Even 10 is a stretch. Amaris hadn't fully built up his forces in the Hegemony yet, but is playing homefield advantage. Probable win for Amaris. Even if the SLDF is victorious here it's by a slim margin.
Now Kerensky is left with his remaining 10 army groups to tackle both the RWR and what remains of Amaris's Terran Divisions (who would be rebuilding with TH factory output.) And the weaker SLDF potentially flips Marik or Kurita from neutral into ardent Amaris supporters, making victory even more difficult for Kerensky. (Kenyon Marik hated Kerensky, but couldn't do much while his own army paled in comparison to Kerensky's.)
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Having the entire SLDF network, especially coms, in the hands of Amaris, and the concept of conflicting orders being sent out doesn't come to mind?
The SLDF had mobile HPGs aboard many of its vessels and retained control of the stations operating outside of Hegemony space. It's communications were mostly secure and did not impede its actions during the war. What it lacked was insight into what was going on inside the Hegemony.
In truth, the opposite was true. The SLDF censored messages going into and out of RWR and Hegemony space. Amaris was more in the dark during the war than Kerensky and might not have been aware the attack was coming from three different angles.
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Requiem
09/19/21 05:40 PM
1.158.137.81
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So it seems unlikely 2770-2272 were not without conflict. (Not enough to warrant the entire SLDF, but enough that assume Kerensky wasn't just sitting on his hands as you propose.)
Inability to multitask, so whist the RWR was occurring what were the forces (that should have been) outside the TH doing?
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Are you suggesting there's a couple years between 2772 and 2777 where Kerensky wasn't doing anything?
So, what was Amaris’ forces doing for this time-period as there are no records.
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Again, this is based on lack of knowledge about Amaris's true strength. You are arguing from a point of full knowledge.
When considering that no houses have any forces greater than one army group this suggests real timidity on the part of the SLDF. They have seven army groups converging on one realm and they are afraid of first engagement?
What this suggests is the SLDF under the command of Kerensky is commanded by political appointees.
Camelot Command within the Dark Nebula was the homeport of the Star League’s 12th Fleet – Was reconnaissance never considered?
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Kerensky mustered his entire force to attack the RWR on the chance Amaris outnumbered him
This is using a wrecking ball.
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We've gone over this already.
Yes, we have and considering the political situation … not one House, if they were in the same situation, would consider this an attack on their forces – they would chalk it up to being a part of the Amaris / Kerensky war and promptly ignore it.
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Kenyon Marik (28th C.)
Why would Kenyon protect the SLDF as he had a personal vendetta against Aleksandr Kerensky – The FWL refused to let Kerensky’s SLDF to use FWL systems as staging grounds for the Terran Hegemony War – thus requiring of Kerensky to evacuate all FWL facilities …
So why would Amaris attack empty bases … as if these facilities were virtually undefended wouldn’t this allow Kenyon’s forces to just walk in and take them over?
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How much was not known, but it was clearly enough to warrant the SLDF stopping such production, and destroying or taking possession of those caches themselves. Interstellar Expeditions was finding RWR outposts in the deep periphery centuries after the war, indicating the SLDF still hadn't found many of the sites.
Where is the intelligence … where is the reconnaissance …
If the entire SLDF was used to attack the RWR what this suggests is that when the wrecking ball tactic was used – the SLDF became so overly enthusiastic they destroyed any evidence that could have been used to locate these hidden facilities …
This also indicates that Kerensky lost control of his forces … or he purposely let them off their leash … either way this is not how a Commanding Officer of a vast military force is supposed to act. Incompetence or letting his emotions dictate his tactics?
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So the rebels should align with House Steiner, whose army is woefully smaller than Amaris's? Instead of aligning with the SLDF whose army is at least comparable (and in truth, bigger)?
Kerensky is supposedly bringing together the entire SLDF to attack the RWR … this suggests a genocidal tactic based upon anger … and you believe the RWR resistance is going to be allowed to discuss anything with Kerensky?
At least with the FC they have a chance of being heard and if they join with the FC they have a political chance of surviving … as, as per Kenyon Marik above, all Houses have the ability to expel the SLDF from their realm .. and if the RWR are now a part of the FC that also includes them … or is the SLDF going to go to war with every House in its search for vengeance?
If it is believed that Amaris cannot attack a House does this also establish the premise that Kerensky is also unable to attack Houses at the same time?
Remember at this stage he down to 3 Houses that would let him use staging worlds for the invasion – does he want be down to 2 all for the sake of the RWR flipping and joining the FC?
Politically, therefore, the only hope for the RWR’s civilians surviving a war with the entire SLDF lies with an alliance with the FC.
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Thus, it's much closer to the two times I suggest than the 3-5 you do. 2-3 armies would certainly not have been enough to tackle Amaris even with the size of force he actually had, let alone the larger one the SLDF feared he might.
First, at the start of the war this is no where near what he ha, and how many of these half of his forces were sent to assist the other Periphery States or remain within the RWR?
Second, how about considering the naval warship forces also at the same time?
Please refer at this stage to my forum article – general Page 2 – Issues with regards to the Kerensky-Amaris Civil War
SLDF
5800 Warships
Total Regiments 4,455 of this 1,708 are BattleMech
RWR
288 Regiments – of which only half of this 144 Regiments are within the TH at the start of the War – the other half are located upon every periphery state ….
270 Warships
Thus the disparity in available forces is massive.
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Amaris hadn't fully built up his forces in the Hegemony yet, but is playing homefield advantage.
Problem is his homefield is in the RWR not the TH.
Also as at the start of the war there isn’t a weaker SLDF – as this only occurs at the end and as where Archon Robert II predicted they are now ready to decimate what remains of the SLDF in order to fight the second war for the throne.
Which is the reason why all the Houses would have ignored any battle between the Amaris and Kerensky. For the first time in hundreds of years the Houses are now out from under the Star League yoke and are able to wage war for the throne.
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What it lacked was insight into what was going on inside the Hegemony.
Did no one ever consider a naval reconnaissance mission – with over 5,800 warships, this would seem to be achievable.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Wick
09/21/21 03:57 PM
68.169.149.5
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Inability to multitask, so whist the RWR was occurring what were the forces (that should have been) outside the TH doing?
Presumably guarding SLDF bases and installations (such as HPG stations) in the other five houses and periphery states. The SLDF still needed to garrison these sites (especially in hotzones like the Taurian Concordat or worlds close to the Hegemony borders and now within striking distance of Amaris's troops.) Kerensky clearly couldn't deploy 100% of his forces to the Rim Worlds theater, but probably stripped just about everything he could to minimum. I doubt there was enough left outside the Rim Worlds theater to engage in any significant offensive action. Even actions against the Taurians seem to just stop once the coup occurs and the focus changes to the Rim Worlds campaign.
H:LoT1 says the SLDF had deployed about 75% of its forces to the periphery, with the vast majority in the Taurian campaign. Thus it can be assumed that an equal 75% of the SLDF was redeployed to the Rim Worlds theater. The remaining 25% is required to effectively garrison bases, depots, HPG stations, key factories, shipyards, and the like.
I don't think the inability to multitask was a choice Kerensky had.
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So, what was Amaris’ forces doing for this time-period as there are no records.
Building up his divisions and defensives within the Terran Hegemony. Its about all he could do as the SLDF was trying to blockade imports of additional war material. (Though apparently he was getting some transports coming through Kurita space prior to 2771.) And they didn't have much ability to lash out at SLDF garrisons outside Hegemony space without potentially running afoul of the House lords. I'm not sure Amaris's troops had any better strategy than to hunker down and wait - the SLDF would eventually come to them. Best course of action is to make the SLDF pay dearly for each planet they hoped to reconquer through robust defensive strategy.
I'm not sure any records were really needed as there wasn't much left his forces really could do. Its like the Capellans 3035-3057-ish. We don't hear much from them because they're basically just rebuilding and biding their time without the means to really take much action.
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When considering that no houses have any forces greater than one army group this suggests real timidity on the part of the SLDF. They have seven army groups converging on one realm and they are afraid of first engagement?
The SLDF isn't going up against one of the Houses. They know the House's strength, or a good estimate. They thought they knew the Rim Worlds strength as well and were badly mistaken. The SLDF had been booted out of Rim Worlds space years earlier (2755) and their estimates had not kept up with reality.
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Camelot Command within the Dark Nebula was the homeport of the Star League’s 12th Fleet – Was reconnaissance never considered?
SLDF abandoned this facility when forced to leave Rim Worlds space. Even the Sarna article says the 12th Fleet was relocated to Alliance space (almost certainly Quatre Bell)
However, its supposed to be secret so I could envision a small recon and garrison force being stationed here even after the SLDF was forced to leave. Almost certainly present to prevent the base's discovery and capture by non-SLDF troops. But likely too small of a force remains to be effective at preventing or predicting the coup or its accompanying military buildup.
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not one House, if they were in the same situation, would consider this an attack on their forces – they would chalk it up to being a part of the Amaris / Kerensky war and promptly ignore it.
If I was a house leader, and my citizen's blood was spilled on my soil, I would not hold this opinion. I've not read anything or seen evidence presented that the house lords would not either. I just don't buy any argument that the house lords would let Amaris run rampant over their territory or kill their people without repercussion.
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The FWL refused to let Kerensky’s SLDF to use FWL systems as staging grounds for the Terran Hegemony War – thus requiring of Kerensky to evacuate all FWL facilities …
So why would Amaris attack empty bases … as if these facilities were virtually undefended wouldn’t this allow Kenyon’s forces to just walk in and take them over?
Where does that come from? Kenyon Marik only said he would not allow military forces to enter his space, either Kerensky's or Amaris's. (House Marik sourcebook, p29) I've seen nothing that says the SLDF outright abandoned its bases in any house's space or were forcibly expelled. Certainly some that were of lesser value or could not be garrisoned effectively (open field bases, etc.) were abandoned, but not all of them, and only a few (like Helm) that weren't emptied before the SLDF left. Kenyon probably did take those abandoned though (and his fellow House lords may have done the same, if only on the pretext to prevent piracy or another House army from striking at them.)
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If the entire SLDF was used to attack the RWR what this suggests is that when the wrecking ball tactic was used – the SLDF became so overly enthusiastic they destroyed any evidence that could have been used to locate these hidden facilities …
Or the defenders themselves destroyed it to prevent capture by SLDF, which is far more likely.
And don't forget the SLDF was mostly green. They hadn't seen a lot of action prior to the Taurian campaign 2765-2767, and were fighting a dug-in defensive force rabidly defending their worlds from "Star League aggression". The SLDF losses in each battle, whether Taurian or Rim Worlds campaigns were gruesome. Only the Royal divisions with superior technology really gave better than they got. Kerensky needed a wrecking ball because the Taurians and Rim Worlders proved to be steel-clad walls.
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Kerensky is supposedly bringing together the entire SLDF to attack the RWR … this suggests a genocidal tactic based upon anger
The SLDF had already been mostly brought together for the Taurian Campaign, indicating anger and genocide has nothing to do with how the SLDF deploys.
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… and you believe the RWR resistance is going to be allowed to discuss anything with Kerensky?
Absolutely. Canon says it happened. (See RRA leader Lucien Dormax, H:LoT1 p110).
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If it is believed that Amaris cannot attack a House does this also establish the premise that Kerensky is also unable to attack Houses at the same time?
I don't think either side really desires putting another 100-120 regiments of mech-strength against their own forces. As much as they'd like the houses to come over to their side, neither wants them to fall to the side, and houses themselves don't want to be caught in the middle. Its in everyone's best interest for them to remain neutral, though Amaris gets a little bit of looking-the-other-way from Marik and Kurita, while the SLDF gets some looking-the-other-way from Steiner, Liao, and Davion.
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Politically, therefore, the only hope for the RWR’s civilians surviving a war with the entire SLDF lies with an alliance with the FC.
Presume you mean LC here. And this is the probably the argument made by pro-Amaris supporters. But with the SLDF censoring HPG transmissions out of Republic space I doubt much of this message got through to change the opinion of the Lyran court. Steiner and the Estates-General probably knew all too well the pro-Amaris camp was doomed and any attempts to align with it was foolhardy.
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SLDF
5800 Warships
Total Regiments 4,455 of this 1,708 are BattleMech
RWR
288 Regiments – of which only half of this 144 Regiments are within the TH at the start of the War – the other half are located upon every periphery state ….
270 Warships
This isn't a full picture.
First, the SLDF had been badly bruised by the Taurian campaign, losing some 10-15% (and maybe upwards of 20%) of its strength. On paper it may be running 4455 regiments but in reality its considerably less, 3500-4000 regiments in strength.
Assuming the quote that 75% of the SLDF was deployed to the active Taurian theater remains accurate by the start of the Rim Worlds campaign (and its only two years so probably is), that makes about 2600-3000 nominal regiments remaining for offensive maneuvers, with around 1000 for garrisoning SLDF sites across the Inner Sphere.
Amaris had around 50 secret divisions. That's an added 450 regiments. This put his maximum size circa 2765-2767 at around 738 regiments. Somewhat less because some of these would have gone down in the periphery campaigns, so let's say around 700. This number does not include planetary militias in either the RWR or TH which would number in the hundreds of conventional regiments.
In 2772, at the start of operation Chieftain:
The SLDF invasion force is explicitly defined as having 295 divisions (80 mech) and 233 additional regiments, for a grand total of 2655 regiments. On paper. It's assumed many, if not most, are understrength. Probably closer to 2000 actual regiments-worth of offensive strength (plus those 1000 or doing garrison duty)
The Amaris Empire Army is explicitly defined as 41 divisions. (H:LoT1 p121). That's 369 regiments and are assumed to be full strength following years of Hegemony factory output. Planetary militias (and SDS support) are not included in this number, which would again augment the Amaris Army's strength by a considerable amount.
So we can take from these numbers that the Amaris forces lost at least 331 regiments of standing strength (and un untold number of militia losses) during the Rim Worlds campaign, while reducing the SLDF's offensive component by about 700-1000 regiments. (A 2.1:1 to 3:1 loss ratio if you're only counting standing army strength.) In truth, the Amaris forces would have lost more than this but able to add new divisions from Hegemony factories, but kill ratio is probably still between 2:1 and 3:1.
Extrapolated to the Terran Hegemony campaign, that means the SLDF would expect to lose another 775 to 1107 regiments (and likely more as the Terran Divisions were much better equipped and had SDS and Castles Brian on their side). Even in best case scenario, this would leave the SLDF with between 900 and 1200 regiments available for offensive actions at conclusion of the war, plus the roughly 1000 or so garrisoning SLDF sites around the Inner Sphere. Given they actually ended the war with around 1700 total regiments remaining, these numbers pan out, as the SLDF probably made it to the goal line with closer to 700 regiments worth of offensive strength remaining.
With a 700 regiment margin for error, imagine if Amaris had 100 secret divisions, rather than 50.
Those extra 450 regiments on the Amaris side, pulling off better than a 2:1 kill ratio outlasts the SLDF by a reasonable margin of 200 regiments - enough to remain a threat to any house military.
Thus, Kerensky was wise not to split his forces, nor jump into the Hegemony unprepared. The unknown quantity of Amaris's hidden forces could easily have been overwhelming. The SLDF needed to know Amaris's true strength and disable his ability to reinforce (beyond the capability available to him within the Hegemony.)
Just looking at the raw numbers doesn't tell the whole story. Just because the SLDF had this huge number of regiments that seems to dwarf Amaris's ignores factors like militias and defensive advantages, and when you run the numbers to see how much each side lost it becomes apparent that the smaller defensive force is a real threat the the SLDF's numerical superiority. Furthermore, the SLDF could not fully commit the entirety of their forces, further diluting their apparent strength.
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Did no one ever consider a naval reconnaissance mission – with over 5,800 warships, this would seem to be achievable.
Certainly started by 2771. Probably had small scouting events taking place before that. The problem is the same with all systems in which an enemy warship may be present: the chance of discovery or death. SLDF probably played it safe until Chieftain began, when they were in position to jump dozens of craft into each invaded system and take out any aerospace defenses.
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Requiem
09/22/21 07:20 AM
1.158.137.81
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Presumably guarding SLDF bases and installations
Problem – this would indicate a reserve force and where 95% of the entire SLDF was decimated by Amaris – this would indicate that either Kerensky started with a reserve force and then due to losses had to call then in to continue the war or from the start abandoned the idea of all reserve forces and all of their bases and attacked with everything from the start.
If Kerensky uses everything to attack the RWR in such a timely fashion this does not explain why it takes 66 months to engage Amaris.
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H:LoT1 says the SLDF had deployed about 75% of its forces to the periphery, with the vast majority in the Taurian campaign. Thus it can be assumed that an equal 75% of the SLDF was redeployed to the Rim Worlds theatre
So it takes 7 months to travel from the Taurian Campaign, bypassing the TH, just so they can then attack the RWR?
Where is the logic in bypassing the TH to reach the RWR?
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I'm not sure Amaris's troops had any better strategy than to hunker down and wait
Makes for a very dull story?
So whilst Amaris is rebuilding what is everyone else doing?
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The SLDF had been booted out of Rim Worlds space years earlier (2755) and their estimates had not kept up with reality.
So, what is Camelot Command doing and why have a reconnaissance navy?
This facility was active during this time – was only mothballed for exodus.
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Camelot_Command
“ It was abandoned by the Star League Defense Force on the eve of the Exodus”
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If I was a house leader, and my citizen's blood was spilled on my soil, I would not hold this opinion.
What is more important? A few of your citizens or obtaining the First Lord Throne?
My bet – the Throne.
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Where does that come from?
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Kenyon_Marik_(28th_c.)
“the Free Worlds did not recognize Amaris as the rightful First Lord, but Marik refused to let Kerensky use Free Worlds systems as staging grounds for the Terran Hegemony's civil war.”
The rest is my conjecture – if 100% of the SLDF was used in the war then sooner or latter they had to abandon their bases as only 3 houses allow staging bases for the war.
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And don't forget the SLDF was mostly green.
Training – Opfor Units?
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Kerensky needed a wrecking ball because the Taurians and Rim Worlders proved to be steel-clad walls.
Given the numerical difference this would suggest that the SLDF was highly incompetent or they had the worst officers within the Star League.
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Lucien Dormax
Yes found it Kerensky reluctantly talks with him – then left and the entire state …
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I don't think either side really desires putting another 100-120 regiments of mech-strength against their own forces
Problem – how big is the SLDF and why would they fear an additional enemy ?
This just does not work when you place this against the SLDF numbers ….
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But with the SLDF censoring HPG transmissions out of Republic space
Can’t be done – this is not the era of the Comstar and if most RWR worlds with HPG how are you going to blockage this considering the shear size of the RWR and how far it reaches around the LC – nearly to the FWL border …
So yes it most definitely would have reached the Lyran court.
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Steiner and the Estates-General probably knew all too well the pro-Amaris camp was doomed and any attempts to align with it was foolhardy.
Risk / Reward – considering the massive military industrial capability the RWR must have and that at this stage every House is gearing up for the 1st Succession War it is worth the risk.
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the SLDF had been badly bruised by the Taurian campaign
How many army groups are engaged within the Taurian Campaign?
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Amaris had around 50 secret divisions
Didn’t these go the periphery states to help them in their war with the SLDF?
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SLDF probably played it safe until Chieftain began, when they were in position to jump dozens of craft into each invaded system and take out any aerospace defenses.
This reads more like cowardice.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Wick
09/24/21 07:37 PM
68.169.149.5
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Problem – this would indicate a reserve force and where 95% of the entire SLDF was decimated by Amaris – this would indicate that either Kerensky started with a reserve force and then due to losses had to call then in to continue the war or from the start abandoned the idea of all reserve forces and all of their bases and attacked with everything from the start.
What? Kerensky didn't lose anywhere close to 95% of the SLDF.
Between 2765 and 2767, the SLDF shrinks about 29%. At least two thirds of this due is to losses in the devastating Taurian campaign, and the loss of a third of the 1st Army that had been left behind in the Hegemony and mostly wiped out in the first few days of the coup.
Between 2767 and 2780, the Amaris Civil War, the SLDF shrinks another 45%, or to about 26% of its original strength. With 25% intended for reserve, this means the SLDF could just barely make it to the end without the need to draw on reserves.
But SLDF likely did not have the same forces garrisoning the entire length of the war, but rotated units between active and garrison duty, especially some of the more battered units transferred out of front-line duty. Probably started the war close to 1000 full-strength regiments of garrisoning troops and probably ended closer to 500, assuming 1000 half-strength regiments and/or a combination of giving up or reducing the defense of some less important sites.
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So it takes 7 months to travel from the Taurian Campaign, bypassing the TH, just so they can then attack the RWR?
Where is the logic in bypassing the TH to reach the RWR?
I already explained this twice. Third time: SLDF doesn't know how many reserves Amaris has coming in from the periphery or exactly where they are coming from. They must identify and stop such reserves, lest both the TH and RWR become even more powerful.
It is a risk by the SLDF to let him have several years of unmolested buildup from Hegemony factories to tackle the RWR first. But for all they know there are even more factories in the Rim Worlds Republic churning out war material for Amaris's Army.
Personally, I'd have wagered that the Hegemony factories could outproduce whatever the RWR was producing and would have pushed for an invasion of the TH first. But this isn't how its written. All I'm trying to do is explain why the decision was made to attack the RWR first. Canon gives enough evidence that this decision is at least worthy, even if not the one I'd make. One thing that is clear is that the focus should be on one or the other, not both at the same time. The Taurian Campaign just showed the SLDF the folly of throwing one army at a time against an enemy.
Some of the army groups returning from the Taurian or Alliance theaters did perform some reconnaissance raids as they passed rimworld Hegemony worlds along the Suns and Capellan borders though. (H:LoT1 p105)
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So whilst Amaris is rebuilding what is everyone else doing?
Until the TPTB say so, who knows. Some minor plotting is revealed over the course of the two H:LoT books, but not a lot. Unfortunately, too much focus is being spent on promoting the favored factions of the current development group (Clan Wolf, the Dragoons, Eridani Light Horse, Gray Death Legion, etc.) than on the grander history.
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So, what is Camelot Command doing and why have a reconnaissance navy?
This facility was active during this time – was only mothballed for exodus.
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Camelot_Command
“ It was abandoned by the Star League Defense Force on the eve of the Exodus”
Oh good lord, At least read the relevant sentence out of the damned article:
"Prior to the Amaris Civil War, the Twelfth Fleet was reassigned to a port in the Outworlds Alliance, but the SLDF re-occupied the facility during their Rim Worlds Campaign."
Camelot Command was NOT active at the time of the coup. The Sarna article summarizes a few sentences from H:LoT1 p107, particularly these:
"This last was a facility constructed by the SLDF in the Dark Nebula between Apollo and Wotan and, thanks to the astronavigational challenges of reaching the Camelot Command facility, it had not been occupied by the Republic. A naval attack force jumped to the base in September 2767, carrying out a sweep of the vicinity before landing marines to secure the facility."
I maintain that there should have been some presence left behind, if at the least to self-destruct the station before letting it fall into enemy hands. Probably a small warship, a few dropships, a contingent of marines, and an aerofighter wing or two. But apparently the SLDF completely evacuated and trusted that its secret location would hold out until they returned. (And apparently a good bet since it remained hidden from the Exodus until the Clan Invasion, though other than some pirate realms rising from the RWR's ashes, there wasn't much fighting going on in that area to warrant searching for lost SLDF bases. More curiously is why the Dragoons and Irregulars didn't ever investigate it.)
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If I was a house leader, and my citizen's blood was spilled on my soil, I would not hold this opinion.
What is more important? A few of your citizens or obtaining the First Lord Throne?
My bet – the Throne.
How do you even get that far if you're overthrown for negligence? Five (six counting Amaris) are after the First Lord's throne. Maybe each House throne is coveted by 100 people. Acting like a despot could get you replaced. Despot in reality or not, they've at least got to keep up appearances that they care for the people to keep their loyalty. (And that they are a better, more caring leader than the leader of the nation that just attacked them.)
In short, you just can't throw your own nation under the bus to rule the galaxy. These arguments that the leaders can do anything they damn well please just doesn't hold up. (With exception to maybe Alaric, who I'm hoping finally gets his just desserts before too much longer.)
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Given the numerical difference this would suggest that the SLDF was highly incompetent or they had the worst officers within the Star League.
Possibly. But an equally valid statement to support the numbers is that defensive strategy was far more potent in the late Star League era than it was in the earlier Reunification War or later eras such as 4th Succession War, Jihad, and Dark Age.
SDS would be one reason, but that's limited only to the Hegemony worlds. The vast number of warships, space stations, and significantly stronger aerofighter component would be my explanation for it. While a given dropship might make planetfall 98-99% of the time in later eras with fewer warships and much less aerofighter defense, I'd guess this number is probably closer to 70% in late Star League. Invading foreign soil is a very costly endeavor in terms of material and lives lost before reaching the ground. Once on the ground Star League troops probably outperformed their periphery and Amaris-aligned counterparts, but had a great many of their number blown out of the sky beforehand.
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I don't think either side really desires putting another 100-120 regiments of mech-strength against their own forces
Problem – how big is the SLDF and why would they fear an additional enemy ?
This just does not work when you place this against the SLDF numbers ….
Don't think in terms of SLDF across known space. Take one House, where the SLDF might have left 100-200 regiments worth of strength guarding their bases while dealing with the Taurians or Amaris. Each house had around 100-120 mech regiments at this time, and when conventional regiments are added, they outnumber the SLDF forces within their nation by at least 2:1 (and perhaps closer to 3:1)
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Can’t be done – this is not the era of the Comstar and if most RWR worlds with HPG how are you going to blockage this considering the shear size of the RWR and how far it reaches around the LC – nearly to the FWL border …
Goodness man, stop making up whatever BS sounds good to you. Stop saying things can't be done when canon says they are.
The Bureau of Communications exists at this time and is a Star League department-level agency. Amaris would have had no way to take control of HPG stations outside of the Hegemony, and the remaining Bureau members sided with their sister Department of Administration, which oversaw SLDF actions. While the heads of almost all Star League departments were effectively taken out in the coup, the remaining staffers would naturally align with the Star League elements that remained, including the Defense Force. I suppose there were Amaris-followers among these staffers all across the Inner Sphere (especially in the periphery states) but these staffers probably didn't remain in their jobs for too long after the coup or flipped to Kerensky's side once Amaris's motives became evident.
H:LoT p32 says the HPG stations were maintained under the authority of the SLDF's Communication Command (probably because of lack of oversight by department authorities who were now dead, missing, or otherwise incapable of providing leadership.)
Page 108 describes the SLDF's censoring efforts, primarily centered on Apollo (since it was directing all RWR defense to the SLDF invasion.)
"... isolating a ring of worlds around the capital and blocking the passage of any HPG messages from Apollo that had not been approved by the SLDF."
Page 125 goes further, to explain Kerensky-friendly staff had control of the HPG stations between the Hegemony and each House capital:
"Amaris, too, attempted to curry favor with the leaders of the five Great Houses. Not daring to leave the security of the Hegemony, he sent each a number of personal messages via HPG, making grand promises of power, wealth and even to cede massive pieces of the Hegemony to them after aiding him in destroying Kerensky and the SLDF. None of the five pledged Amaris any support, though after Kerensky’s press corps leaked some of these messages to the interstellar press, the public uproar was enough for the leaders of all but the Draconis Combine to allow Kerensky to stage reconnaissance raids into the Hegemony from their nations."
(Most likely, this was meant to read, "all but Free Worlds League", not Draconis Combine.)
The above statements combined show, that for all practical purposes, every HPG station outside the Hegemony and Republic space is under SLDF control. (Control that eventually passes to Jerome Blake and ComStar.)
While true that the most rimward Republic planets of Circinus and Green Stone can transmit HPG into FWL space (as could Urjala and Huesta to Valliore at the far end of the Bolan Thumb), these would have had almost zero impact on the war which was focused much more coreward. If needed, it seems likely the SLDF could have easily taken these facilities to maintain the communications blockade. (The Department of Communications was going to have to take back all the HPG stations after the war anyway, so why not let the SLDF clear the way early if its to their benefit.) And this assumes these worlds even had HPG, which in the periphery was not assured, though I'd assume Circinus almost certainly had one given its post-Exodus importance.
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How many army groups are engaged within the Taurian Campaign?
Per H:LoT1 p94, five full Armies, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 19th. These took the brunt of losses, but the army groups deployed to the Magistracy (9th-13th, and 17th) and Alliance (15th-18th, and 20th) also took a fair number of losses. 2 of the 3 Corps of the 1st army had also been deployed but I'm not sure to which states (presumably Taurian Concordat.)
This left the 2th, 8th, and 14th armies as reserves. Though the explicitly named number is 75% deployed to the periphery (somewhere between 4 and 5 armies of strength, rather than just three). Presumably a few brigades out of each corps was left behind to do that garrison duty I keep talking about. Since the book doesn't always mention the independent regiments, it may also be them that get stuck with the garrison work while the full divisions went to the front-line.
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Amaris had around 50 secret divisions
Didn’t these go the periphery states to help them in their war with the SLDF?
Some of it yes. Amaris supposedly had about 100 known regiments operating in the Hegemony as part of his defense agreement. He's got 369 by Operation Chieftain. Some from factory buildup, some from the secret divisions.
H:LoT doesn't really say how they were split or how the periphery standard armies and secret army were split. Given that some of Amaris's forces were lost in the takeover (the SLDF still had 54 regiments of troops remaining in Hegemony borders, plus the militia of a few worlds that did not immediately roll over to Amaris's side), my best guess is roughly an even split of 25 divisions to TH and 25 to the other Periphery states, with parts of 1 or 2 that never got deployed before the SLDF wiped them out (at least one base in the periphery beyond Draconis Combine borders was taken out by orbital bombardment by SLDF craft moving from Alliance space to the rally points in Lyran space)
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Requiem
09/25/21 01:34 AM
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What? Kerensky didn't lose anywhere close to 95% of the SLDF.
Please refer to page 2 General Forum: Issues with regards to the Kerensky-Amaris Civil War
All the information and source details are there … Force Depletion Report – SLDF
Comes down to the following calculations
…………………..Prior to conflict……………..Post Conflict ………………..% Damage
Navy……………..5,800 Warships…………….Max. 503 Warships…………91.3% destroyed
Army…………….4,455 Regiments……………Max. 215 Regiments ………95.2% destroyed
Have a look at the exodus figures …
Thus, it is quite clear that Kerensky far worse than even Publius Quinctilius Varus when he lost 3 legions in the Teutoburg Forest for incompetence.
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SLDF doesn't know how many reserves Amaris has coming in from the periphery or exactly where they are coming from. They must identify and stop such reserves, lest both the TH and RWR become even more powerful.
I’m sorry but I disagree, in my opinion, this is pointless – and a waste of time and resources – considering the massive size of the SLDF Army as well as its Navy it should not be that difficult to undertake reconnaissance in force, or better yet initiate one massive Blitzkrieg strike at Terra.
The idea of striking the RWR is not really that important – Kerensky has the means to strike off the head of the snake, he may as well initiate the battle …
Yes they may be cautious but the RWR was replacing the SLDF during the war – thus shouldn’t Kerensky have a good idea as to the RWR within the TH? What does he expect that the RWR has a force comparable to the entire SLDF and thus he must be wary?
If this is the case then Kerensky is being way to cautious for a General in command of an Army …. Where is the Patton in him?
I just cannot believe that the story as written has credibility. There needs to be something other than what is written to explain what is going on as it just does not make any sense to me.
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"Prior to the Amaris Civil War, the Twelfth Fleet was reassigned to a port in the Outworlds Alliance, but the SLDF re-occupied the facility during their Rim Worlds Campaign."
Given the importance of the Facility there would still be a skeleton crew there together with one or two ships for protection so yes I agree with you …
However this is where the story gets interesting ….https://www.sarna.net/wiki/12th_Fleet_(SLDF)
Prior to the Stary of the war, yes you are correct, the 12th were deployed to the Outworlds Alliance along the DC / FS border. However doesn’t the SLDF have fleets closer to the outworlds alliance within the DC and the FS – so why move the 12th from all the way over by the RWR? That is unless they were ordered to do so which indicates that someone within SLDF High Command was in on Amaris’ plans from the get go … so who was this arch traitor who assisted Amaris?
At the start of the Amaris War Kerensky HQ was on New Vandenberg
It took the 12th 5 to 15 days to cross the entire FS to reach New Vandenberg – where they then promptly departed for the RWR
Can anyone explain how this is possible to move from the outworlds alliance to New Vandenberg in 5 to 15 days?
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How do you even get that far if you're overthrown for negligence? … In short, you just can't throw your own nation under the bus to rule the galaxy.
And yet this is exactly what happened during the Succession Wars … every house threw their people under the buss, plus the majority of their advanced technology, all for the sake of obtaining the title of First Lord.
Or was there another reason as to why the succession wars were fought?
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Each house had around 100-120 mech regiments at this time, and when conventional regiments are added, they outnumber the SLDF forces within their nation by at least 2:1 (and perhaps closer to 3:1)
Problem – under the law each house was only allowed a very small military force that included conventional and warships which in put the odds at about 30 to 1 in favour of the SLDF
Which was why the Houses were so compliant … that is until Amaris inflicted such wounds as to even the odds and allow the Houses to let slip the dogs of war for the throne …
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Goodness man, stop making up whatever BS sounds good to you. Stop saying things can't be done when canon says they are.
Then please do explain how a message is sent from one end of the RWR to the other end where each received then also sends a message into the LC for the Archon – how is this supposed to be stopped these are hundreds of worlds sending to Hundreds of worlds?
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The Bureau of Communications exists at this time and is a Star League department-level agency.
And whom does the Bureau chief answer to? And where does she/he live? Could it be Terra?
Ow many would keep doing their jobs and how many would rebel?
All you need is one to send the message …
Pg 108 is this during the RWR engagement ? as I doubt they could have achieved this in the early days of the War.
Pg 125 – this is a bit of a stretch all of them? Sorry not buying this.
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that for all practical purposes, every HPG station outside the Hegemony and Republic space is under SLDF control.
The only way this could be held true is if every HPG station has now received a military commissar who is vetting every message received before it can be sent on its way …. Sorry but this statement’s plausibility is way off the mark … were are back to boy’s own adventure books of the 1800’s again …
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Per H:LoT1 p94, five full Armies, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 19th.
So they used a sledge hammer to crack an egg and in return found out that the egg inflicted a massive amount of damage where it really should not have considering their military size ….
Again you have to wonder what was happening on the ground as this does not read like what you would expect given the size of these military forces.
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H:LoT doesn't really say how they were split or how the periphery standard armies and secret army were split.
Please refer to page 2 General Forum: Issues with regards to the Kerensky-Amaris Civil War
There is info there as to the numbers Amaris provided each Periphery state.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
Edited by Requiem (09/25/21 01:35 AM)
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Wick
09/26/21 06:48 PM
68.169.149.5
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All the information and source details are there … Force Depletion Report – SLDF
Comes down to the following calculations
…………………..Prior to conflict……………..Post Conflict ………………..% Damage
Navy……………..5,800 Warships…………….Max. 503 Warships…………91.3% destroyed
Army…………….4,455 Regiments……………Max. 215 Regiments ………95.2% destroyed
Holy ****. More made up numbers. Why does this not surprise me. If you can't quote real numbers and the source, don't try.
Historical: Liberation of Terra II, page 114 makes your numbers all kinds of fake:
SLDF 2764: 125 BattleMech Divisions, 325 Infantry Divisions, 304 Independent Regiments, 2243 Warships (* Excluding reserves). This is 4,354 regiments (for which your number is close enough), but less than half the warships you claim.
SLDF 2780: 40 BattleMech Divisions, 95 Infantry Divisions, 117 Independent Regiments, 414 Warships (* Excluding reserves). This is 1,332 regiments, not 215.
Immediately under these numbers, it even states the % remaining from its peak 2764 strength: Army is 30.59%, Navy 18.45%.
Same page also says exactly how many left on the Exodus: 32 BMDs, 76 IDs, and 63 independents for a total of 1,035 regiments, and 402 warships. These aren't anywhere near your numbers.
Furthermore, the same page ALSO says how devastating the Periphery campaign (33-45% loss), and the Hegemony campaign (33%) were.
To drill it into your head, I've taken a snapshot of the page and attached it to this post. Further argument over starting sizes, losses, or the impact of defensive strategy are entirely moot.
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There needs to be something other than what is written to explain what is going on as it just does not make any sense to me.
That's a "you" problem. The source books, particularly the two H:LOT volumes spells out what happened and how.
Yes, the SLDF was huge in 2764, to the point of being seemingly invincible. That is not in dispute. But the warfare 2765-2780 completely wrecked them. Even you concur they got beaten up worse than they actually did (95% to the actual 70%-ish), so I fail to see why you can't understand how it happened. Defense being much more effective than offense, plus a sizable number of defections in the periphery campaigns is the only explanation needed. It doesn't need to include such ideals as "incompetence" or "cowardice" to get from point A to point B.
You keep calling it sledgehammer versus and egg, but its apparent the egg is made of steel.
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However doesn’t the SLDF have fleets closer to the outworlds alliance within the DC and the FS – so why move the 12th from all the way over by the RWR? That is unless they were ordered to do so which indicates that someone within SLDF High Command was in on Amaris’ plans from the get go … so who was this arch traitor who assisted Amaris?
Now this at least is worth discussion. You have a point that there should be bases in Combine or FedSuns space that can used (after all, the SLDF was using two Lyran bases prior to recovering Camelot Command.) Best guess I can muster is that the facility at Quatre Belle, being in the periphery, is SLDF-owned like Camelot Command was, rather than owned and operated by the AFFS or DCA. It also put the warships much closer to the Periphery front-line but in 2755 the Periphery uprising wasn't yet in full swing so this would only be to make a show of force.
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At the start of the Amaris War Kerensky HQ was on New Vandenberg
It took the 12th 5 to 15 days to cross the entire FS to reach New Vandenberg – where they then promptly departed for the RWR
Can anyone explain how this is possible to move from the outworlds alliance to New Vandenberg in 5 to 15 days?
Simple mistake here. I found the page you're talking about (H:Lot1 p47) and I had to reread the Twelfth's bubble on that page a second time to realize the error. It says a courier arrived with Rim Worlds astronavigation data five days after Amaris' communique, and the fleet 10 days later. This is not 5 and 15 days after the coup.
The communique its talking about is a transmission from Amaris to Kerensky on May 19, in which Amaris apparently mocked Kerensky and goaded him into attempting to unseat him so he could destroy the SLDF with his newfound power.
So in truth, several months had passed. More than enough time for the courier and fleet to transition across FedSuns space.
And at least two squadrons appear to have taken the route around Draconis space to perform an early attack on Apollo beginning June 3, as there's no way these elements could get from New Vandenburg to Apollo in 15 days. These squadrons would have had to leave Alliance space earlier in the spring. Ceasefires with the Periphery states were established in February, so these two squadrons probably left no later than end of February, with the rest of the 12th Fleet heading to New Vandenburg around same time or perhaps sometime into March.
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Problem – under the law each house was only allowed a very small military force that included conventional and warships which in put the odds at about 30 to 1 in favour of the SLDF
You're talking about the Edict of 2650. This was repealed 2752. For the previous 13 years or so the Houses had been rapidly expanding their militaries. SLDF was likely 30:1 in 2752. More like 3:1 or 4:1 of all the Houses combined by 2767 (thanks in part to some heavy loses for the SLDF as well.)
Case in point: The Second Army was left defending the entirely of Fed Suns space. Per FM:SLDF, they comprise 6 BattleMech divisions, 18 Infantry divisions, and 9 independent regiments, for a total of 225 regiments (of which 90-99 are mech.) Per Field Report: Fed Suns 2765, the AFFS itself musters 110 mech regiments of its own, plus numerous conventional regiments in its planetary militia makeup. The SLDF is large as a whole but with most of its army tied up in the Condordat, Magistracy, and Alliance, the House armies easily outnumber SLDF troops in each of the House states. The SLDF just can't take unilateral action against a particular House anymore than Amaris can: they're both just too outnumbered. Since no House willingly joins either side, its to both benefit of both Kerensky and Amaris to keep the Houses neutral, rather than taking action that might flip them to the opponent.
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Pg 108 is this during the RWR engagement ? as I doubt they could have achieved this in the early days of the War.
Apparently was. Drummond has a diary article on page 103 that indicates they had no idea the SLDF was coming so quickly. The last paragraph says Rim Worlds troops like himself didn't even know it was just two squadrons of SLDF ships, not the entire fleet until after the occupation of Apollo had ended. If they had HPG capability they'd have known the bulk of the SLDF was still weeks away.
Unless you want to argue that the SLDF somehow kept several thousands of warships and jumpships a secret the whole trip. Which is highly unlikely. So if you contest that it only takes one message to escape the blockade to reach the Lyran court, then it stands to reason it would have taken only one inbound message to Apollo to reveal the SLDF's true location. Such a message apparently never arrived, thus the communications blockade of Apollo was not just highly successful, but fully in place by late-May 2767, which is very early in the war.
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The only way this could be held true is if every HPG station has now received a military commissar who is vetting every message received before it can be sent on its way …. Sorry but this statement’s plausibility is way off the mark … were are back to boy’s own adventure books of the 1800’s again …
Well, that's how its written. If you got a problem with it, take it up with CGL.
I don't think its practical they vetted very message either. More likely they effectively silenced all HPG traffic within the Rim Worlds realm, both military and civilian.
Attachment (88 downloads)
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Requiem
09/27/21 04:36 AM
1.158.137.81
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But the warfare 2765-2780 completely wrecked them.
If we use your figures …
This is 1,332 regiments
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_the_Federated_Suns
As of 2765 they were well equipped with 110 'Mech regiments, and the naval fleet had a volume of 51 vessels.
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Draconis_Combine_Mustered_Soldiery
by 2765 this had increased to 115 well-equipped 'Mech regiments, with thousands of conventional regiments, and a naval fleet of 42 WarShips with several hundred fighter wings
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Free_Worlds_League_Military
As of 2765 they were well-equipped with 95 'Mech regiments, and the naval fleet strength was listed at 47 vessels
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Capellan_Confederation_Armed_Forces#2765
By 2765 they were well equipped with 92 'Mech regiments, and a naval fleet of 37 vessels.
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Lyran_Commonwealth_Armed_Forces
By 2765 this had increased to 90 'Mech regiments and 60 WarShips.
Yes, by the end of the Civil War the SLDF is outnumbered when it comes to Land Forces
House Army BattleMech Units as at 2765
RWR ………………….144 Regiments in the TH – considered to be half of their total forces
AFFS………………….110 Regiments.
DCMS………………….115 Regiments
FWLM…………………95 Regiments
CCAF………………….92 Regiments
LCAF…………………. 90 Regiments Total House Numbers is at 502 Regiments
If the SLDF were at 1,332 Regiments why was it running from the IS forces ? or are we suggesting that the IS had in this short time frame now eclipsed the remnants of the SLDF – thus it is now better to run away than stand and actually do your job and preserve the SL!
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More than enough time for the courier and fleet to transition across FedSuns space.
Why?
If the war in the RWR starts 7 months into the coup wouldn’t it be more efficient for the 12th to just go home to Camelot Command via the DC than going all the way through the FC, then through the majority of the CC and part of the FWL, (skirting the TH as we are too afraid of the unknown) then through the LC to reach the RWR?
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you're talking about the Edict of 2650. This was repealed 2752. For the previous 13 years or so the Houses had been rapidly expanding their militaries.
Refer above ….
2752 - High Council of the Star League introduces amendments to reduce the limits of the Council Edict of 2650 Great Houses begin rapidly expanding their respective military forces.
When you take into consideration the 65 numbers as above you have to wonder how far they got by 80 …
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its to both benefit of both Kerensky and Amaris to keep the Houses neutral, rather than taking action that might flip them to the opponent.
As stated previously … the houses do not care … they want both the SLDF and Amaris destroyed at the same time so that they can take over the top job …
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If they had HPG capability they'd have known the bulk of the SLDF was still weeks away.
Only if someone spotted the fleet and decided to send him a HPG note ….
If taking uncharted space lane then no one knows where they are …
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it would have taken only one inbound message to Apollo to reveal the SLDF's true location.
Correct,
However … as noted above if off the beat and track who is going to know ?
Also this is not an indication that the HPGs are down it is an indication of the use of uncharted reconnaissance pathways through the SL that every House military should be using when going form A to B in order to reach your target with stealth ….
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Well, that's how its written. If you got a problem with it, take it up with CGL.
Have you ever read something within Battletech that screams this does not make any sense ? or is everything written inviolate and perfect?
Considering the size of the SLDF and the number that you believe survived why bother attacking the RWR when the real target is the TH?
Also isn’t it Kerensky’s primary duty to rescue the First Lord / Family etc – or does he know something everyone else doesn’t and he just wants to enact a massive war of vengeance and destruction?
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Wick
09/27/21 06:30 PM
68.169.149.5
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Total House Numbers is at 502 Regiments
If the SLDF were at 1,332 Regiments why was it running from the IS forces ?
Because you aren't comparing apples to apples. 1,332 is the total regiments of all SLDF forces: mech, combat vehicles, and grunt infantry. 502 for the Houses is mech only. Multiply by 4 for vehicles and by 6 for infantry. The Houses in total muster something around 5500 total regiments of all types.
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or are we suggesting that the IS had in this short time frame now eclipsed the remnants of the SLDF
That is exactly the case FASA made many years ago. Well, not exactly, as the SLDF was still slightly larger than any house military (maybe DCMS and AFFS were on par though.) But the SLDF was certainly not so big as to be able to easily handle a rogue state as it had in 2730. They'd need to rebuild to get to that point and the House Lords felt it was in their best interest to not let that happen. They stripped Kerensky of his title and started recruiting SLDF units into their own militaries. It is harder to explain why Kerensky would enact the Exodus or why some SLDF units would defect to the House militaries if the SLDF was still so much so larger than the House's.
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If the war in the RWR starts 7 months into the coup wouldn’t it be more efficient for the 12th to just go home to Camelot Command via the DC than going all the way through the FC, then through the majority of the CC and part of the FWL, (skirting the TH as we are too afraid of the unknown) then through the LC to reach the RWR?
I haven't figured this out either. They don't go through DC space, that much is certain from the books (Kerensky doesn't trust House Kurita); they all go through Fed Suns space or around the periphery. But I don't understand why the fleet (minus at least two squadrons) goes all the way to New Vandenburg. I don't remember reading anything to explain this decision, and didn't see anything new to explain it yesterday. As far as I can tell its a plot hole. If it is explained somewhere, I'm not aware of it. The only explanation I can think of that makes any amount of sense is that Kerensky wanted a massive show of force as he moved through Marik space. The Magistracy and Concordat are close enough that he could collect all his forces somewhere around Andurien, and make his way to Lyran space without any risk of Kenyon Marik trying something funny. Though I don't see how ten army groups moving together is all that more threatening than two sets of five moving separately .
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Also isn’t it Kerensky’s primary duty to rescue the First Lord / Family etc – or does he know something everyone else doesn’t and he just wants to enact a massive war of vengeance and destruction?
Agreed that it wouldn't have been my course of action, but the H:LoT books explain it well enough to understand Kerensky's point of view here. By going after the RWR first, he hoped to force Amaris to abdicate in order to save his homeland, or at the last draw forces away from Hegemony defenses. Either would have allowed for a shorter, and less bloody end to the conflict than a more massive war as you suggest. Amaris didn't bite at either though, and let Apollo burn much to the surprise of many. On the other hand, tackling the RWR first also let Kerensky wipe out any remaining backup Amaris had in the form of additional secret divisions (or more accurately, divisions-in-training) and occupy his factories to rebuild his forces from the Periphery campaign losses.
And by the time he'd settled on his course of action, Kerensky had gotten enough info being leaked out of the Hegemony to be reasonably certain that Richard Cameron was dead and likely so were his closest relatives. After all, months had passed without anyone seeing or hearing from them - even trivids within the Hegemony (and leaked to the outside) were contemplating how Amaris came to power without any of the Camerons disputing it, with an apparent logical answer. I also seem to remember a sentence in one of the two books (probably first) in which some of his staff felt they owed it to the Cameron family to rescue them if they were indeed alive, but Kerensky apparently settled on this course of action as (ultimately wrongly) the best chance to reduce bloodshed. He knew attacking the Hegemony would result in massive casualties, and didn't want to risk millions on the small chance of rescuing a few hundred. If Amaris had kept a few Camerons alive and paraded them around periodically, he'd have likely convinced Kerensky and the SLDF to come straight for him.
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Have you ever read something within Battletech that screams this does not make any sense ?
Certainly. But if its explained to me in terms that make sense, I'll buy it.
Example: CGL recently retconned the Toujours L'Audace mech from CM:Mercs, when they noticed it had the ECM attribute for War of 3039 era. This decision came six years after the publication, which is really quite late to change what is written. They reverted it to a standard TDR-5SE, though I pushed for it to have a prototype ECM, which would maintain the printed description and wasn't entirely out of question as the Eridani Light Horse may have had non-working ECM suites dating back to their Star League days, they are known to have one of the best tech groups (behind maybe Wolf's Dragoons and Battle Magic), and with the Helm data could have potentially restored one to working order by time of War of 3039. CGL countered that they wanted it as a standard TDR-5SE so that another rule was not violated: that being that outside of Ravens, Cataphracts, and some ComStar mechs, ECM did not reappear until 3045 (with the prototype model only being a Reunification War item). (Though of course, this ruling has since revealed a problem with the Packrat Mobile TacOps variant, since it has an intro year of 3041 and isn't yet resolved by the same manner.)
So CGL made a ruling that is defendable, but not perfect, and certainly not how I'd have done it. But I can accept it (if they also fix the Packrat.)
There's still a lot about BattleTech that is under-explained though. I just don't think most of the major details of the Amaris Civil War fit that bill. The H:LoT volumes really filled in that bit of history well, though with a few oversights (like the 12th fleet going all the way to New Vandenburg); none that seriously disrupt the game in my opinion though. Much worse, and less well-explained decisions have been made (Jihad irregularites, Wars of Reaving foolishness, Dark Age foolishness, and more recently, unnecessary retcons to earlier eras and rules to make ilClan era more appealing.)
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Requiem
09/27/21 10:03 PM
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Multiply by 4 for vehicles and by 6 for infantry. The Houses in total muster something around 5500 total regiments of all types.
Estimation? Or is there something written down to the effect?
Still – will any single house take on the SLDF given their size at this time especially when the aim is to become the next First Lord?
In this situation who every moves first will lose – it’s a stalemate so highly doubtful.
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It is harder to explain why Kerensky would enact the Exodus or why some SLDF units would defect to the House militaries if the SLDF was still so much so larger than the House's.
First – when was the last time the SLDF were paid? Especially when the treasury is held by Amaris – and even when Terra was liberated how much was in the treasury to pay them all + those who dies along the way?
Second – Kerensky killed off 66% or thereabout of the SLDF (your figures) so again you have to question how much faith some commanders had in him long term.
Third – you would expect any leader of the SLDF – who was also the regent – to have more backbone – and when he just accepted the House Lords decision may lost faith in him ….
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Kerensky wanted a massive show of force as he moved through Marik space.
Then once on the TH border you just drive by doing absolutely nothing.
Massive Plot Hole that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
You have the forces – your duty is to save the SL and the First Lord and yet you just do nothing.
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By going after the RWR first, he hoped to force Amaris to abdicate in order to save his homeland, or at the last draw forces away from Hegemony defenses.
Any shrink would tell you this is not going to happen.
Also, if your aim is to reduce the damage – a quick surgical strike on Terra would accomplish this … it would also fulfill your duty to rescue the Cameron family asap.
Which again is a massive plot hole.
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Amaris didn't bite at either though, and let Apollo burn much to the surprise of many.
Again any child on the playground would tell you this does not work when it comes to bully.
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also let Kerensky wipe out any remaining backup Amaris had in the form of additional secret divisions
Really? How many did Keresny find? Would the answer be none … reminds me of the WMD incident all over again.
This all sounds great on paper – and yet if you kill Amaris this effectively shuts down the entire war – as is there a number two waiting in the wing who is ready to continue on with his vision or on his death is it more likely they would just pack up and go home?
Again where are the combat shrinks at this point in time as they have been used since WW2.
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Kerensky had gotten enough info being leaked out of the Hegemony to be reasonably certain that Richard Cameron was dead and likely so were his closest relatives.
Thus by the law of succession wouldn’t this put the Kerensky family in the FWL next in line for the throne and as such is it not his responsibility to secure their safety and to wage a war in their name to place them on the throne?
Or is that everyone forgot the whole idea about the law of succession in this case ?
Also if he had known why didn’t he plan for this eventuality once the war was over?
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the best chance to reduce bloodshed.
Can I laugh now at the absurdity of this?
If the aim is to reduce bloodshed then the aim is to strike at Terra First – which can be easily accomplished via moving through hidden systems ….
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I just don't think most of the major details of the Amaris Civil War fit that bill.
And a surgical strike on Terra right from the get go?
Any rational person will state that this is the only logical path …
Sorry but I do not buy this explanation as it is too contrived and makes little to no tactical / strategical / and political sense given the situation …
Only the emperor of fools would open as second front, deplete your own forces, logistics and most important of all time when it is absolutely not worth it.
Sorry but this dog don’t hunt!
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Cray
09/29/21 08:00 PM
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This all sounds great on paper – and yet if you kill Amaris this effectively shuts down the entire war – as is there a number two waiting in the wing who is ready to continue on with his vision or on his death is it more likely they would just pack up and go home?
Amaris was figurehead for disgruntled Terran nobles and commoners, something discussed at length in JHS:Terra and the two Liberation of Terra publications. He did organize things and brought in Rim Worlds troops to launch the coup, but those Rim Worlds troops evaporated as soon as the SLDF seized the Republic.
Throughout most of the Star League Civil War, the primary source of "Amaris" troops was the Terran Hegemony, whose population was appalled at Kerensky's betrayal of their decision to vote for Amaris.
Frankly, Amaris was a hindrance after a few years. His clumsy, ham-handed attempts to pressure the Houses with things like cutting off Hegemony banking only made them sit more firmly on the sidelines while alienating supporters in the Hegemony. If it wasn't raw fear of Kerensky's SLDF putting Terran nobles in front of firing squads then the Hegemony resistance would've collapsed by about 2773.
Had a Terran noble like, say, a Windsor-Cameron replaced Amaris c. 2768-2770, the Civil War would've probably turned out quite a bit different. Kerensky would've lost support from SLDF royal units, the Houses would've fallen in behind a son of Terra (who was presumably a competent diplomat), and the Hegemony's population would've shown a majority of support for the new leadership.
On the other hand, by 2773 all the Hegemony's powers that be were thoroughly stained by Amaris and had no choice but fight the SLDF to the death. If they executed Amaris and tried to appease Kerensky, their own people would've torn them apart. (Amaris was that bad of a ruler. Great schemer, though.)
So, no, killing Amaris doesn't really help things in many stages of the civil war. Shooting Amaris in his crib would, but not after the point he declared himself Emperor.
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer
Disclaimer: Anything stated in this post is unofficial and non-canon unless directly quoted from a published book. Random internet musings of a BattleTech writer are not canon.
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Requiem
09/30/21 06:07 AM
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Revisionist History ? would appear so …
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Amaris was figurehead for disgruntled Terran nobles and commoners
If this is the case then it would not be described as the Amaris Coup – plus Amaris would not be the dominant figure in charge.
What you would see is a group of individuals who would have provided themselves with some other non de plume – eg. Nobles Alliance of Terra.
And it would be them and not Amaris who would be discussing the ‘state of affairs’ with Kerensky.
why would anyone as narcissistic as Amaris have anything to do with a group effort to take over the SL? – his first order would be to have them executed at the same time as the throne room massacre.
what this describes is more along the situation of …
Vidkun Quisling – Norway Quisling regime
Philippe Petain – Vichy France
There is no Number 2 for Amaris … he is the sole ruler of the new SL within the TH only.
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/House_Windsor
Duke of England … wouldn’t they be part of the throne room massacre?
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If they executed Amaris and tried to appease Kerensky, their own people would've torn them apart.
Operation Valkyrie Mk 2?
Thus, given all this evidence, as noted above, YES killing Amaris would most definitely end the civil war as this is most definitely a single person in charge exercise ….
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Wick
09/30/21 08:51 PM
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First – when was the last time the SLDF were paid? Especially when the treasury is held by Amaris – and even when Terra was liberated how much was in the treasury to pay them all + those who dies along the way?
Ugh. Here we go again. Because you don't know, you make up some silly story to back up your opinion and present it as a plot hole, even when its covered. (There are certainly plot holes in Battletech lore, but you don't need to be creating fake ones.)
H:LoT1 covers the finance problem on page 100. The SLDF JAG department successfully argued in the courts of remaining five Houses to offer bonds and release funds owned by the Star League government (and which continued to be collected in taxes throughout the war) but held in member state banks. Amaris didn't like it, but the courts in each house ruled in favor of the SLDF. The SLDF paid for its operations - which presumably includes paying its troops - using these funds, some 10% of the Star League annual budget (which apparently was enough.)
It doesn't say so, but Amaris presumably got access to the taxes collected within the Hegemony, or held in the Star League Treasury. Fair chance he got even more than 10% of the budget this way, but he had to spent significant amounts of that on infrastructure and citizen needs, while the SLDF could use practically 100% of their funds on military expenditures.
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Second – Kerensky killed off 66% or thereabout of the SLDF (your figures) so again you have to question how much faith some commanders had in him long term.
The fact 80% of the remaining SLDF left on Kerensky's exodus after the conflict is pretty hard evidence he remained popular with the troops throughout the war. Your supposition that troops and commanders lost faith in him is utterly false. For some yes, but a small minority at best.
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Third – you would expect any leader of the SLDF – who was also the regent – to have more backbone – and when he just accepted the House Lords decision may lost faith in him ….
This isn't even what happened! The House lords didn't dismiss Kerensky because they'd lost faith in his leadership. Quite the opposite in fact: they feared him remaining in control of a military that might threaten their own. They couldn't do anything about the SLDF before the coup but had the chance to get rid of it once the war was over and took it. (They also didn't like him maintaining martial law over former Hegemony planets, when by pushing him, and by extension the SLDF, aside they could more easily annex those planets into their own nations.)
If it was merely losing faith in Kerensky, the Council could have just as well replaced with him with Dechevalier or another. They chose to empty the position and not fill it. They thought it would lead to the SLDF fracturing into multiple segments each favoring a house and end up eliminating themselves even further (since Amaris' troops didn't get the full job done), both denying the SLDF from assisting a rival house and opening the door for conquest for Hegemony worlds formerly defended by the SLDF. While a few regiments and divisions absconded to the House militaries or went mercenary, most remained loyal enough to Kerensky to venture off into the unknown with no assuredness of survival. (Now that's faith.)
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a quick surgical strike on Terra would accomplish this
There is no such thing. It took 32 months to conquer the Terran system (January 23, 2777 - September 30, 2779) 36 if you count the Battle of Eris several months before the main invasion began.
And that's with the Terran Hegemony effectively conquered so Amaris could no longer draw upon reinforcements from surrounding worlds or factories resupplying him with new material.
I'm okay with a plan that conquers the Terran Hegemony first. I said before its what I would have done. But going right to Terra and being surrounded by Amaris's forces is suicide. If its the better part of three years when the SLDF has laid the groundwork and has the upper hand, how long is it when you give Amaris all the advantages? The SLDF would have been surrounded for 3-plus years (if it even survived that long), constantly harassed by reinforcements and would have no supply chain at all in which to rearm. Complete and utter devastation. There is no win for the SLDF in this scenario. The difficulty of taking Terra alone 2777-2779 spells out how bad this would have been 2767-277x with the lack of preparation the Hegemony campaign 2772-2777 had afforded the SLDF.
I think Kerensky's lieutenants that wanted to return as quickly as possible to rescue the Camerons even realized going right to Terra was nigh impossible. They likely would have had to settle for tackling the Hegemony first, and hoping the Camerons and other Hegemony leaders survived a few years in captivity or hiding before they could get to Earth. If you want to skip the Rim Worlds Republic, fine. I would have. But there just isn't any skipping the rest of the Hegemony.
If you're going to whine about 66% loss being bad, proposing a plan that most likely results in 100% loss is even worst. I can't even believe you went here.
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Which again is a massive plot hole.
To you. Not to the rest of us that have read the source material.
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Really? How many did Keresny find? Would the answer be none … reminds me of the WMD incident all over again.
I'm tired of this ****. Stop trying to be a smartass by answering your own rhetorical questions incorrectly. I already pointed out the page above. Now I'll give you the whole damn paragraph from page 105:
"The troops from the Outworlds Alliance could have cut through the Draconis Combine, despite the objections of the Coordinator, but Kerensky remained convinced of Kuritan complicity in the coup and ordered the force to take alternative routes. Some voyaged through the Federated Suns and others hopped through uncharted Periphery systems. The Periphery detachment destroyed several of Amaris’ training facilities en route, but only where the bases fell near their path. No mercy was shown to the installations, with orbital bombardment and nuclear weapons being the SLDF’s weapons of choice."
The answer is at least several. That's clearly more than "none." And that's without even going out of their way to attack the ones they knew about but weren't along their flight path. Amaris clearly has many training sites for his secret divisions spread throughout the Periphery. The above paragraph, plus the discoveries of the Explorer Corps and Interstellar Expeditions firmly establishes this fact.
Rhetorical question: Who looks dumb now?
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Thus by the law of succession wouldn’t this put the Kerensky family in the FWL next in line for the throne and as such is it not his responsibility to secure their safety and to wage a war in their name to place them on the throne?
Davion line may have been closer. Supposedly John Davion, by law, had the best claim of the House Lords. I'm not sure if any material specifies if non-House Lord families (like the Kerenskys or Windsors) may have been closer. And it doesn't really matter because by the end of the war it seems apparent that the House Lords were going to fight over it no matter who had the best legal claim.
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Can I laugh now at the absurdity of this?
If the aim is to reduce bloodshed then the aim is to strike at Terra First – which can be easily accomplished via moving through hidden systems ….
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And a surgical strike on Terra right from the get go?
Any rational person will state that this is the only logical path …
Go ahead. I'm laughing my **** of now. The absolute dumbest thing they possible could do is what you claim is the most rational course of action. It explains everything this whole thread has been about.
It's clear you haven't read the source material. Its clear you don't even want to read the source material. You just want to argue that either Amaris or Kerensky should have won the war handily, so that there is no mutual destruction that is needed to explain almost everything Battletech history later depends upon. No Succession Wars, No Clans, No ComStar or Jihad, No Dark Age. That's what you're arguing for here. And its tiresome. I don't want to be a part of it anymore.
You want answers? Go get the two Historical Liberation of Terra volumes. They are well worth the investment for true BattleTech fans. You don't even have to read them, just own the PDFs so you can open them and search for what you need, when you need it. I haven't read them cover to cover myself. But I feel like I've fired bullets from the books at least two dozen times in the last week to counter some opinion you've just pulled out the ether with no supporting evidence (or faulty evidence.)
You want debate? Then back up your statements with facts and quotes. Not made up junk and rhetorical questions. Canon is not wrong because you, or anyone else, merely says so. Canon can only be wrong when you find contradictory canon. I'm more than willing to debate canon vs canon, or opinion vs opinion. I don't want to debate canon vs opinion, and that's what this thread has devolved to.
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Requiem
10/01/21 05:44 AM
1.158.137.81
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It took 32 months to conquer the Terran system
Lets make some explanations –
First, Amaris civil War December 2766 to September 2779 – 153 months, so in comparison to 32?
Second, by definition, a surgical strike is an assault directly upon Unity City, the Court of the Star League in Puget Sound North America – primary target Stefan Amaris.
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But going right to Terra and being surrounded by Amaris's forces is suicide.
With the majority of the SLDF navy in the Terran System?
Yes, it would be suicide for any Amaris force counter attacking!
Who in their right mind is going to attempt a rescue / reinforcement mission for Amaris with the bulk of the SLDF Fleet in the Terran System at the same time?
It is just not going to occur!
Amaris is on his own in Unity City – what forces he does have are about to become scrap metal with just one massive orbital bombardment followed by a land invasion.
The battle would last days at most!
Some one really should have looked at this and realized that the only way you get a war into the years is if the SLDF splits in two and there is a SLDF civil war.
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There is no win for the SLDF in this scenario.
Sorry but can I laugh now?
Consider the size of the SLDF Navy available for a surgical strike upon Terra and remember how spread-out Amaris’ forces are throughout the TH are at this initial stage – as he is attempting to subjugate the entire TH.
The orbital defence is off-line …. But that still does not matter as a mass battleship bombardment would turn it to scrap in no time by sheer numbers alone!
So how can Amaris’ forces survive if the bulk of the fleet arrives within one system together with 5-7 SLDF Armies in one massive strike upon Terra?
The problem is many people are looking at this like a two-dimensional war when ‘in reality’ it is three – and where fleets can move hidden and undetected via unpopulated systems or even in the vastness of space just as explorer ships.
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To you. Not to the rest of us that have read the source material.
No still a massive plot hole.
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The troops from the Outworlds Alliance could have cut through the Draconis Combine, despite the objections of the Coordinator
And I reply with ….
“When the Amaris Civil War started in early 2766, Allyce chose to remain neutral simply because she could not bring herself to make a choice.”
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Outworlds_Alliance
“Like the other rulers of the Periphery states - with the obvious exception of the Rim Worlds Republic - Allyce pledged her neutrality during the Amaris Civil War, but she provided Kerensky with information on her role in the Periphery Uprising, as did Janina Centrella. The information provided the Star League Intelligence Command with a valuable insight on the size and scope of forces likely to be available to Amaris.”
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Allyce_Avellar
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Amaris clearly has many training sites for his secret divisions spread throughout the Periphery.
And how many were every found in this era?
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Supposedly John Davion, by law, had the best claim of the House Lords.
And here we are back to the war of the Roses where Dukes fight for the throne and the idea that Adam Steiner can be considered in line for the Archon’s throne once more, when he has absolutely no right to the throne whatsoever.
This is discussing the right of succession – you actually need to understand the order of succession as shown in the family tree by placing a big red X on all members who are now dead and going backwards to find the next First Lord by right of blood and who is still alive - and not by being a Duke with the biggest military force.
So lets have a look - https://www.sarna.net/wiki/House_Cameron
There is House Cameron Davion – if they are in the FS and not on terra
Then there are the Cameron-Jones and Elsa, Duchess of Regulus – thus making her a viable candidate for the throne.
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And it doesn't really matter because by the end of the war it seems apparent that the House Lords were going to fight over it no matter who had the best legal claim.
Thus indicating that someone did not understand medieval politics – the king is dead, long live the Queen – it is an automatic transition from one to the next. Something Kerensky should have understood being Regent for a time.
If all within the TH are dead then AUTOMATICALLY the next in line by moving backwards through the family tree who is alive and outside the TH will be named the next First Lord.
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The absolute dumbest thing they possible could do is what you claim is the most rational course of action. It explains everything this whole thread has been about.
Yes, the thread is completely and utterly in error when you consider the tactical plot – the TO&E of both forces and the political and strategic reality at this point in time.
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It's clear you haven't read the source material.
Yes, it was a good work of comedy. A revisionist history that attempts to explain a very poorly contrived reality by fails once logic comes in.
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You just want to argue that either Amaris or Kerensky should have won the war handily, so that there is no mutual destruction that is needed to explain almost everything Battletech history later depends upon.
If you are going to write a historical novel can you at least write it in such a fashion as it makes sense and is not full of holes and does not read as a 1800’s boys own adventure book.
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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Wick
10/01/21 03:47 PM
68.169.149.5
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It is not a plot hole. It can't be a plot hole if the source material explicitly describes it. The book says that a quick surgical strike is not possible, or at least would not be successful in the course of weeks or months. The defenses are just too damn strong.
This statement alone completely wrecks your plan, and there's dozens more like it throughout the two books, with all manner of numbers and stats to support it:
"Despite this, Kerensky had to concede that Amaris’ troops controlled the Hegemony and, with the SLDF’s military HQs suborned, most likely the SDS. He could immediately throw the SLDF against the Terran fortifications but he knew that any operation would take years, a campaign the SLDF was ill-equipped to undertake." (Book 1, page 101)
Any operation. Years. Not days. Not weeks. Not even months. There is no such thing as a surgical strike against Terra that accomplishes a quick end to the war. Even if Amaris was killed, someone else could take his place (as you argue should have happened for the Camerons), and it does not make Amaris Empire Armed Forces suddenly stand down. To end the threat, the SLDF must ensure there is no second person to take over and must be prepared to take on the entire Amaris Empire Army. Period.
Your whole argument is based on the assumption that Amaris lets himself get assassinated, no one at all stands up to take his place if he were, and his massive army just suddenly gives up. All three must happen in your scenario, and none of the three happen in canon. Amaris never put himself in a position to be assassinated in canon, and the SLDF met its two prerequisite goals. Why should the rest of us believe any of these three would happen in your scenario, when there's 250 pages of material that says none of them actually did. And yet you claim the canon is an adventure book instead of your own unprovable ideas. How arrogant are you?
Don't answer that. I don't want to read anymore of your trash and don't want to subject anybody else to it either. Continue making bogus arguments on this thread (or others) if you want, but I'm not going to read them anymore. You just can't be taken seriously when 90% of your opinions are easily disprovable. 10% of it has merit - but its just too overshadowed by the arrogant garbage.
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Requiem
10/01/21 05:45 PM
1.158.137.81
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It can't be a plot hole if the source material explicitly describes it. The book says that a quick surgical strike is not possible
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Canon can only be wrong when you find contradictory canon.
What is a plot hole?
It is an inconsistency in the storyline that goes against the flow of logic established by the story’s plot ….
So here we have one of the Greatest Generals ever … who has been swept up in a coup by the evil Amaris …and who has taken the Terran Hegemony and taken the First Lord
The First Lord who for all intent and purposes was made his ward when his father died due to assassination … and he was made Regent … thus by law his son until his majority …
This General has the largest military force ever …
He knows that Amaris can only have a military force approximating one tenth the size of his force, as he has been provided this information from Amaris’ one time allies. As well as reports provided by his own intelligence apparatus as to the number of units replacing SLDF units within the Terran Hegemony … he also knows an approximate size of their Navy and he knows it is no where near the SLDF Navy ….
He also knows how to transition a task force through empty space and hidden systems … just as the explorer ships …
He also has access to intelligence, psychology, electronic warfare as well as command of other officers all from different fields and experience who assist with his tactical and strategic plans plans
And the only defence is “because the book says it is this … it must be this!”
Sorry, implicit and unquestioning adherence to canon dogma is the issue being discussed.
Kerensky – what is his primary duty in such a situation? Responsibility is protecting and defending the Star League and the First Lord.
So, just give up on the child he raised?
This is the true and undeniable issue here!
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The defenses are just too damn strong.
What defences????????
The orbital SDS is inoperable
Amaris’ Naval force is (as per https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Rim_Worlds_Army#Naval_Forces)
Mid 2765 – 270 warships
“the Rim Worlds navy was known to consist predominantly of older designs, many of them relatively lightweight compared to modern Star League Navy ships”
“the SLDF navy was fielding approximately 2,250 WarShips at the same point in time”
However - https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Star_League_Defense_Force
“By 2764, the SLDF had over 15,000 regiments and just as many WarShips, JumpShips and DropShips.”
Given these figures the idea that the SLDF cannot create a multiple task forces to retake the Terran system is laughable.
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Amaris never put himself in a position to be assassinated in canon.
Canon – Massive Plot Hole!
No leader no matter how secure they believe themselves to be, is open for assassination.
Kerensky knows where he is on Terra – he knows his fleet is vastly superior to that of Amaris – he knows that he can put hole Armies on Terra following a massive orbital bombardment
So what’s the problem? The Book says you can’t do this because it is canon and as such inviolate from any criticism !!
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Thein there is the personal attacks - How arrogant are you? - I don't want to read anymore of your trash - You just can't be taken seriously - Because you don't know - Stop trying to be a smartass - Rhetorical question: Who looks dumb now? - its just too overshadowed by the arrogant garbage.
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I don't want to read anymore of your trash and don't want to subject anybody else to it either.
How long have I discussed canon Vs opinion to contest the believability of a situation? and now censorship – the suppression of speech and thought – what ever happened to freedom of thought, freedom of speech, freedom to expression?
The freedom to create – to be ….
Am I now guilty of heresy as canon is inviolate and must never be questioned?
If so I am in good company … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Book_censorship
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
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