Requiem
08/26/22 02:15 AM
1.147.88.67
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I believe that Comstar would start actively resisting the clans at least 6 double jumps out, so 12 normal jumps, maybe sooner.
In my opinion Distance is hardly a factor for determining when to begin an offensive against the Clans.
A more appropriate factor is that of politics – such as the discover of the Clans objective, that of Terra.
With the discovery of Terra as their objective it now becomes imperative for the ComGuards to be implemented in stopping the Clans advance.
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if Walterly thinks she can manipulate them, then the others would remove her
Anastasius Focht would have supplied the first circuit with detailed explanation as to the Clans – this would have included their psychology – So how can you manipulate a zealot in forgoing their ‘almost quasi-religious dream’ that their messiah (Kerensky) gave them?
That said if she still didn’t understand then her position would have been cut short by a more politically sound Precentor in collusion with Focht.
Note: https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Allen_Rusenstein
“n a private session that same year, the First Circuit voted by a majority to ask Rusenstein to resign for his failures in both the Dragoon problem and the Jolly Roger Affair. While the First Circuit had the ability to simply remove him as Primus, thanks to the legal powers enacted by Gregori Hartford, they gave the aging Rusenstein the courtesy of allowing him to leave under his own terms.”
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/Gregori_Hartford
“using his high level support on the First Circuit to pass several reforms that permitted the First Circuit to name a successor to the Primus or to remove a Primus from power on the full vote of all Precentors.”
Question where were these powers when it came to Primus Myndo Waterly?
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by this time, the clans would almost know Walterly is going to betray them
How, when the Clans only contact is with Anastasius Focht – and they view him as a jumped up telecom executive and not a warrior at all?
Sorry but I disagree – they need real intel on Waterly – and the only info to hand is ComStar’s acolytes they have captured to date as well as any press cuts (if they would even bother to find these as intelligence gathering on individuals is not really that big on their repertoire.)
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She may well have been moving units around without Focht approving them. Probably using ROM to do so.
Very difficult unless they are special forces that are off book!
Regulars have a chain of command – orders are via military GHQ – not civilian. Command.
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I would also think that as the clans finish off the FRR, Walterly would activate the warship production yards
Too little too late – considering manufacturing timeline if ComStar doesn’t start asap how will they have a sizeable fleet to combat the Clans ….
Politically they are being incredibly foolish that they believe they can cut a deal with them, as there will never be a deal with the Clans to be found!
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thinking she will be able to use the excuse of reinforcing worlds of the houses, by taking them, as the clans and houses fight each other bitterly.
Sorry but this really doesn’t make sense.
How can you reinforce a world if you are at the same time conquering them?
The only way forward at this point in time is to form an military alliance with FC, DC, and FRR.
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This should result in the clans finally smashing Comstars warships every time they see them
Return to Pax Clan strategy of TPTB? How about a little reality? Battle of the River Plate or Bismarck or Midway for example, there are many examples of how the navy can get involved – or even if you go back far enough how about Battle of the Nile?
What it comes down to is number of ships and their type …
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performing a deep raid on the Titan yards in Terra
When did the Clans warfare type shift to the forward deep raids? Clan battle strategy was – look at the map and hit the next world in the line irrespective of defensive capabilities.
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they will have to break their bids and call in for more ships
Loss of honour – how will the home clans react?
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Maybe the Ravens could be called in to deal with this.
Operation Revival – determining bids for next in line – so who is after Nova Cats and Diamond Sharks? Not I as ilKhan will call up _____ Clan.
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Terra as the prize
And what about Mars as a consultation prize – if you cannot have Terra why not take a planet / Lunar base in the Terran system?
So Lunar Base, Mars, etc. as objectives to be won?
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Maybe even agreeing to let the Ravens rebuild and use them once Terra is secured.
Given? Clans are not given anything – they win through feat of arms – combat!
Get thee to Coventry … Now is the winter of our discontent, made glorious by this daughter of Tharkad … Our army shall march through. Well to New Avalon tonight.
Edited by Requiem (08/26/22 11:02 AM)
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ghostrider
08/26/22 11:08 PM
45.51.181.83
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Putting a little more thought into the clans winning, I believe that the CC assault would be the way to go.
Might include the FWL in there, so they could take back their worlds and protect them, while the FC deals with the main assaults.
Another way to hurt the IS, might be to have the FWL refuse to make the refit kits, or at least refused to sell them to the others. As the refit kits are implied to have only begun during the year of peace, without this, the agreement may never have been reached or even discussed. We know in the canon story, that the FC gave the FWL tech to start making items the FWL didn't have the knowledge for.
This comes from the one time where Hanse said he was not going to allow Thomas to blackmail them into given up more planets or tech to continue the refit production. This point seemed to have been left out of the actual story line, as there is no where that planets changed hands until the Joshua war happened.
It might also be something to look at Skye deciding the FC was not going to stop the clans, so decided to try for independence, and turned to the FWL to help make that a reality. Yes, it would be absolutely foolish to even attempt this during the invasion, but leaders are not always known to do the smart thing during times like this. Granted, this could well have been done just after the first contact with the clans in the outer reaches of the LC area. The idea could be the DC moving forces around their border, and the FC not listening to the Skye governors complaints to put more units under their control.
Additionally, or maybe as the reason, with the FRR being formed, the DC would be concentrated along the Skye border as it was about the only area that was touching the DC on the LC half.
If you want to add in Comstar having some 'intel' that the DC was making moves around the top of the FRR before making strikes into the Skye region, that could work as well. This could well cover the clans first strikes into the FC. The same could be done against the DC as well.
The DC could suffer from the same 'intel' to cover Comstars involvement with the invading clans for a while.
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Karagin
08/28/22 10:14 PM
70.118.172.64
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Short and dirty for the Combine.
The Combine is facing a three-front war. They have the Bears down towards what is becoming a wedge towards Terra. It affects them as the wedge drives through the FRR and thus puts the Bears on their left far flank. They have the Jaguars and the Nova Cars on the Center (Jaguars) and Right Flanks (Nova Cats).
Theodore is not one to miss this. So I would see him going with lines of resistance. First would be the Pesht Line. This would be centered on Pesht and run up to McAlister and down Tanh Limh. This would be the main line.
Next would be the Arkab Line, which would run from Camlann to Dumaring and include Babuyan and Aubission. These two lines would have the most modern and reinforced Combine units. The idea is that, units would fight until they could not be effective and either go to ground and become guerrilla units or pull off world and fall back deeper into the Prefectures to the next fortified worlds. Fortified in that the worlds have supplies and repair bases, etc...
The Echo Line runs the Right flank into the Periphery and is where the Nova Cats would be engaged at in this setting; this would tie with the fallback line, in this case, The Qandahar Line, which would run from Qandahar to Chorley to Brihuega to Nowhere.
Some units would not fall back but would jump into the rear of the Jaguars or Cats' advance and attack the worlds they had previously taken.
For example, say the Echo Line falls, and the Jaguars are now attacking Leyland; the Combine would have already had units fall back. Still, some units from Echo Line would have jumped into the Sawyer system and attacked the Jaguar forces there. The idea is that the Jaguars would have given up the attack on Leyland to deal with the attack on Sawyer or pulled troops from other worlds in their OZ and diverted them to Sawyer, which would open them to attacks by other Combine forces.
Now, this has a lot of drawbacks and issues. Nor is it perfect, but it uses the space for time concept and gives the Combine the chance to use whiplash tactics against them. And for the record, Wolf told Theodore the same thing or something similar in the novel Wolf Pack.
If things go wrong, they lose everything from Luithen across to Soul/Enif, which would be a blow but not one they would be defeated from. The Combine could still come back from that. I don't Theodore playing the regular Combine games, not after the Outreach Conference or after Wolcott. I see a leaner DCMS, where many hide-bound generals and higher ranking officers are transferred or retired. Massive changes to how the Combine deals with mercs will be happening. Slow going, but they will need to change since they will need the firepower and forces. Plus, they will need more of everything, not just mechs. Expect an increase in infantry and armor units, along with aerospace.
Given how the Combine will borrow for an enemy if the tactic or trick works, I would not be surprised if I don't see a version of the RCT appear in the Combine also.
As for the typical political intrigue and honor stuff, that will be running its ordinary course, and the ISF will be running its' regular bloodletting to keep things sane. The Kurita clan will do everything possible to settle things and win their war with the Clans.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
08/29/22 01:09 AM
45.51.181.83
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As suggested before, the IS could very well have been fighting a very good fight. The only reason they were being pushed back in the beginning is Comstar blocking transmissions from getting out, which included intel. The addition of the Vipers/Cats was because the IS was pushing back hard, and the others needed some relief from someone flanking the DC/FC.
The FC/DC winning battles may still be the case, it is just so many clan units means they can not deal with the focus in the line to Terra, but have at least neutralized the push towards Luthien and others. With Comstar's butt being on the line, they may well be getting the intel they need to effect a better defense. But with the Cats/Vipers doing the flanking maneuvering, they can not focus on Terra. The houses may well try to let the clans threaten Terra as a means to get the CC and FWL involved. Comstar might well help push that to happen, as they are the ones that will lose the most when Terra falls.
I would agree with some units actually doing normal IS tactics and striking deeper behind the enemy lines. I could see this being helped by Comstar as the Comguards get moved from interior positions in the house realms and sent to the front. This would also include more jumpships and dropships, allowing the forces to make a deep raid run into the flankers as well as the Jaguars/Falcons. whether the two houses would trust them enough to coordinate would be a question, but even if Comstar did it just themselves, it would help prevent the two houses from being overwhelmed.
I could also see Comstar having a mothballed fleet of jumpships, while they were upgrading to their own ship, so others would not mistake them for enemy craft in the years leading up to the 4th war. Releasing those ships to be sold to the DC/FC could help with moving troops to do so.
It could also be a backlash on Comstar as Comstar thought those troops would be shipped to the path of the clans, instead of being sent to deal with the extreme flankers. Meaning the houses thought to force Comstar's punishment by make them deal with the clans on Terra, while they secured their flanks.
Given one of the big rivalries in the DCMS is fighter pilots and mech warriors don't really get along well, they may be forced into the RCT thinking. So yeah. I do see them adapting a closer operating procedure with that.
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Karagin
08/29/22 02:24 PM
70.118.172.64
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ComStar will be playing their game, trying not to show they screwed up and then acting like they always do, alofe and snobbish. They won't send troops out to the flanks. Sorry, but I don't see them doing that. They put their forces right in front of the Wolves. Bears and Falcons.
They won't give a flying wet turd about the FC or the DC. They want to keep Terra and what they can hold around it. That is all. So as the front shifts closer to Terra, see them worrying about ComStar first and foremost.
I don't see them selling anything to anyone until things look terrible for them, and only at that point. They already saw how gifts to the Combine got them nothing in the long run so they will be playing their cards a bit more on the cautious side. Now we know that one of their inner circle is a spy. We know Waterly will not make it much longer as Primus, so once ComStar has a change of leadership, maybe we will see something closer to the canon take of them sharing, but until a coup happens, I don't see them sharing.
They could offer things like munitions and such, but even then, that might not be seen as much by the Houses. What I do see ConStar being good at is getting the FWL into the fight. At this point, they still control the fake Thomas, so they can pressure him to send troops forward to help the FC and keep supplies going to the front. Another thing ComStar can do is shut down the CC's surprise attack on the FC. Depending on when that happens before or after Terra falls or while the fighting is going on, that could be a big help that ComStar offers before they fade off.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
08/29/22 04:05 PM
45.51.181.83
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I wasn't suggesting that Comstar would send forces to the flanks. I was suggesting Comstar would sell ships to the houses, thinking the houses would ship more troops to the push, but the houses would use the extra ships to move troops to protect the house flanks.
I was thinking that Comstar pushing the CC to help, might actually be the catalyst for the CC hitting the FC. Comstar might be desperate enough, or might believe the CC leadership at the time, that they would not try to retake worlds. And find out the hard way, that is exactly what they were going to do.
The idea that when Comstar started making their own jumpship line, they would have retained those ships they got and put them into storage. Seeing the houses struggle to move troops would be the main reason to sell they old mothballed ones, minus any advanced tech they might have, as well as wiping the nav computer of all sensitive data.
A question comes up on when Comstar will deploy their warships? If I recall right, only during the offensive to remove the Jaguars, did the IS learn of the warships. Comstar didn't deploy them when they fought the truce battle.
I would think both of these things would happen when the clans are within 4 to 6 jumps of Terra.
The jumpships could be a form of gaining support from the DC and FC to help stop the clans before they hit Terra, which I was suggesting the houses would use those ship to hit the flankers, not add support to Comstar's defense.
I would also believe Comstar would start training crews with the warships as the last of the FRR falls.
I disagree with the gifts the DC received not gaining them anything. They did stop the FC from removing a chunk of DC space as well as stopping the 3039 invasion pretty cold. As the DC is the main threat to the FC, it worked. Not the way they wanted it to, but it did it's job. As for the advanced tech, that was not something they were supposed to know about.
Now having Comstar shut down the CC's attack after it starts does make sense. It could well be the attack was only a couple of worlds. Just enough to divert some forces from the clans path, as they would be the closest, without dragging more from the FS main marches, the Capellan and Crusis Marches.
The question here is if Sandavol will attack the DC, or move to reinforce the area around Terra. In this scenario, I could see Sandavol hitting a few DC worlds in the Terra area, under the guise of reinforcing those worlds. If the DC pulled forces from those areas to try and protect the main area near Luthien and such, this would probably happen.
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Karagin
08/29/22 07:02 PM
70.118.172.64
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The point I was making was the gifts of the mechs and such to the Combine from ComStar didn't get ComStar anything significant. It bought the Combine a lot, but the pay to ComStar wasn't much other than a slap to Hanse Davion and tipping their hand too early.
ComStar should have and could have given the Combine current model mechs, aka what they had of Riflemen, Warhammers, etc...not Kintros, Highlanders, Thorns, etc...that was like handing over Stinger missiles to a guerrilla and saying you had no idea how they got them. In other words lousy move by ComStar. One would think they would have learned from that, maybe.
So for them to provide Jumpships, that's going to be seen as too little too late by many of the Houses' officials and leaders. ComStar is in a tight spot regardless of what they do or doesn't do. They have no real chance of making up for three centuries of fighting the Houses over technology. So, they will be hard-pressed to be seen as anything more than Trying to take advantage of things even now.
I think their best bet would be to focus on the FWL and getting things built up so that they have something to fall back to. ComStar surviving Terra falling is something I don't see happening, not as the same organization. No, I don't see them turning into a version of the canon Word of Blake; that was the dumbest overdone trope in the game for TPTB to bring back. Yes, I called it dumb. Why? Oh, let's reset the universe, again, so instead of a logical way that is thought out, let's dust off the Amaris idea, call it something else, and reuse it again, but this time, let's make sure we do it right not to have loopholes or need major retcon, oh wait dropped that ball...you get the point.
ComStar working with the imposter in the FWL gives them the chance to get more bang for the buck, and it allows them to sell things to the Houses since they would be investing in the FWL. It would mean they would have to drop some of their "mystical" ways, but at the same point, some of the nutjobs would be off fighting the Clans, so the crazy would go with them. They can sell their message of saving Mankind to the masses, and the FWL is known to be more receptive to ComStar than the other Houses. So if things fall apart, ComStar might have a bolt hole to run to. Maybe.
I agree they could be fooled by the CC in that they go open arms, say look, we got it; you want worlds back, let's get rid of the Clans first, then we can see about resettling the border issues, because if we as a whole don't stop the Clans they will tell you what to do, and you won't be telling them anything. Laio is okay, yeah, good idea, okay, we send troops to give us three months, boom they send them right into the FS and hit worlds. ComStar shuts off the HPGs in the CC. Invasion stopped cold.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
08/29/22 08:54 PM
45.51.181.83
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I agree that Comstar should have gotten the DC normal mechs, not the ones that only SL historians knew what they were. The play they may have tried to pass off, which doesn't show up in canon, would be the DC found an SL cache, and didn't receive the units from Comstar. It would have been possible in canon to have done so, but wasn't.
Given Walterly was looking for any way to stop the FC, slapping Hanse in the face would have been fine for her, but as for the rest of the first circuit, it was embarrassing. It provided the reason for the intel shadow war.
I do think Walterly would have preferred the FC lose far more then what it did.
A little to little would sum it up, but it would have been something to start showing the houses that they meant business. Maybe even a bribe to get them to forget they actually helped the clans at first. Not likely to happen, but something.
It is also possible that they wanted to get anything in mothball out of Terra and the 'hidden' worlds before the clans got to them. Who knows. Maybe it is how they get the FWL and/or the CC involved in the fight. Given the CC's losses during the 4th war, and a lack of ability to really gain much back, it may well be how the CC does anything. I doubt the chancellor would risk their ships and forces, even for Comstar.
I agree that there should be no chance of WOB future as the canon line presents. Though I do wonder if Comstar would split into 4 groups with each one siding with each house. Might be a little too much spreading out. Though it does need to be asked if Focht would take the warships left from the fight into the LC portion of the FC, to try and help them gain back some worlds. With Walterly out of it, there are some possibilities that may come from it.
Also, would Comstar sabotage or outright destroy factories in Sol? The ship yards are only part of what is there. This would also have to question about non Comstar controlled assets there as well, such as Aldis (I believe). Demolishers, Behemoths and Schreks being built there.
The CC concept was originally thought to suggest they would help defend Terra and such, but turn against Comstar to retake old CC worlds. But I could also see Comstar suggesting, without committing to, taking worlds owned by the CC.
The issue is I honestly don't see the FC trusting Liao forces enough to even let them cross the border, much less get that deep into their territory to even get close to Terra.
One way to lessen this is Liao forces being limited to using only Comstar jumpships. This could limit the CC to a few worlds, if we do go the retaking worlds route.
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Karagin
08/29/22 09:35 PM
70.118.172.64
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They may try a scorched earth move, but I do not see the nobles and magnets on Terra allowing it. Likely, with things falling apart, a rebellion would be more of a worry than blowing up or damaging factories. Terrans are going to worry about themselves first and foremost.
No, I see the CC doing just that, taking back what they think is theirs and then a bit for payback. They would do the whole stab the other Houses in the back to get revenge. Sun-Tzu would quickly exploit things, and the St. Ives area would be one of the first places "invaded" shortly after his forces landed on former CC worlds around Terra to "allow the troops there to move to face the Clans", aka retreat off world.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
08/30/22 06:51 PM
45.51.181.83
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The rich on Terra are a question in itself.
Do they believe the clans are out to destroy anything that isn't clan or follow their ways?
Or are they like the IS houses, that have some degree of leeway when dealing with them?
How much of the information they receive is modified from the truth, as we know Comstar is playing multiple games?
I wonder if the clans would outright take factories and even their funds as the clans don't deal with merchants well. The Wolves might not have an issue with the money, though they would enforce the clans monetary systems. This would cause problems for the nobles, as some of their funds is 'liquid', meaning tied up in illegal things that would become even more illegal when the clans take over.
How many would volentarily move off Terra along with their money making industries?
I can honestly see more then a few of them being executed for trying to bribe clan members, as well as speaking out against them, as they think their money and old positions of power will prevent punishment.
And yes. I can see more then a few quick rebellions happening as each noble house, or rich merchant decides to fight against he change that will happen. Not sure if they will band together, or just rebel as their power is assaulted.
I could see both happening, as most would believe, at first, that they are immune to such a problem. Then come to realize there is no immunity from the clans. I could see a lot of the black market drying up along with this.
I could see a war breaking out between the CC and SIC. Thinking about it, this may be more likely then trying for the 'chaos march' worlds. Punish Candace and her family as well as bringing CC worlds back into the fold. The punishment part would probably be the deciding factor here.
This does lead to another question.
Does the FC perform some major strikes into the CC, to avoid further issues while they deal with the clans, as a good amount of readied troops would be in the general area?
Again, this could well be part of why the clans take Terra. I could see the FWL deciding that the CC has to go after this as well. Hang together or Hang separately comes to mind.
I would think Comstar might help push that thought as well.
It is against the nature of the Liao's, but maybe they actually do enter and support the IS in their war against the clans. Though this thought might fit a what if that the IS thrashes the clans.
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Karagin
08/30/22 08:41 PM
70.118.172.64
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The CapCon stabbing the FC/FS in the back while they are fighting Clans would, for them, be normal business because the Clans are not on their doorstep. They want revenge on Hanse Davion. This would be their way of getting it.
The blowback would be them fighting the St. Ives Compact, what is left of the FC forces in the FS, and maybe FWL if things like bioweapons are used. ComStar would turn on the CapCon, ONLY if Waterly is dead and gone. If she is still in charge of things, they won't do anything but worry about Terra. If she is gone, they might free up some forces to fight the CapCon and shut off the HPGs, but even then, they may not turn them off for long.
The CapCon going after the FedCom as payback would likely be one of the major reasons the Wolves take Terra. It would factor into things mainly for the single reason it will divide the attention of the FedCom leadership and their military. They will need to stop a two-front war, not a single front. Also, it could be the kick-off to other areas that might want to break away or it might invite the Taurians too invade as well.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
08/30/22 09:34 PM
45.51.181.83
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That would be interesting to postulate.
The big houses falling apart from internal situations, like those wanting to break away, but couldn't while the houses had their big forces and little to distract them.
Taking Terra might well create the same situation within the clans, as each would constantly call for trials of refusal, or outright ignoring the agreement and start a free for all within them.
This would be good for mercs, as everywhere you look, someone needs forces. We know the clans wouldn't hire mercs per se, but given some would be destroyed without the help, they may well choose some loss of 'honor'. Given the type of warfare that would happen, it would well be a multi faction civil war with them. I could see the clans ganging up on other, or just constantly waving one until they couldn't hold out any more.
This could well spread to the periphery as well, with the TC finally tired of the ruling houses management, only to find out their supposed allies and supporters have decided they should rule.
Skye finally gets enough going to pull out, only to have Defiance decide to carve out their own empire.
This would be a major break up of the canon story line, so it may not fit this what if.
I could see each faction gaining control of the HPG in their controlled area, but have issues with those around them. The clans would have an advantage there, as they have HPGs on their ships.
But ambition might negate this as different factions in each clan rise up.
But back to the what if we have going...
It might be interesting to have the CC strike at Comstar if they do interdict them for hitting the FS/FC. Maybe they think they can run the HPG themselves. This could further cause Terra to lose some defenders, as well as accelerate the loss of Terra. It would remove Sunny from power permanently. Maybe Candace would be able to take the reigns and get back on good terms with Comstar with it.
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Karagin
08/30/22 10:20 PM
70.118.172.64
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The CC going after ComStar for an Interdiction would be something they would do since ComStar attacked them first. That in turn, might drag in the FWL, which would be a blow to the CapCon, but I just don't see the fake Thomas really being all for that, and he might push back against it but also turn somewhat of a blind eye to the dukedoms and duchies raiding and such.
The other stuff you mentioned might happen since things are always boiling in the houses. One or more nobles might indeed rise, and the same will happen on Terra once they see ComStar failing to protect them. And yes, I think many of the nobles and magnets and such would try to work out a deal with the Clans or buy favor only to find out that isn't going to work out so well.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
08/30/22 11:38 PM
45.51.181.83
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Depending on how much chaos is wanted, I had thought the dukedoms and such would finally decide House Marik had to go the way of the Camerons. A full scale civil war with no one to help or stop it. The LC could well be hit by some of the factions, that in turn causes even more problems trying to stop the clans.
One possible thing to set this off is someone finding out Thomas isn't related to the Marik line. DNA samples taken from years past are compared to Thomas could be done.
They may well have started this right after it was learned that Max Liao had replaced Hanse at one point, so wanted to make sure it never happened in the FWL. This could well come from Isis trying to exert power for the throne.
Without trying for mass chaos, how much pull did the rich on Terra have in power in the other realms?
Once Terra falls, do problems crop up on other realms? Or does it calm down?
Do those that see the writing on the wall put out a call for any and all mercs to try and liberate Terra?
Do they try this call before the clans even reach Terra?
I could see a wave of mercs trying to reach Terra, only to be caught by the flanking clans as they get in the way of the clans next push, which delays them from the actual assault on Terra. The clans and mercs both. This fight could be why the flankers couldn't bid, as the fight caused a lot of damage to those clans that they ran into.
This does not have to stick with just what is here. If you think having a wave of mercs run into the clans elsewhere, that could work as well. Same with all of it.
The rich could well decide to send mercs to guard their assets on another world. This could well tie into the Black Dragons, as some of their supporters may well be funding them from Terra.
This could also be where some extra equipment comes from as well. The rich on Terra sending out machines to the houses to help stop the clans outside of Comstar's influence.
I don't know if Comstar would sell things like Jumpships to those rich living on Terra. Not the high end stuff, but normal IS models.
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Karagin
08/31/22 10:04 AM
70.118.172.64
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Terra falling is going to be a blow to the whole house of cards. Many will see it as their chance to strike while things are confusing, giving them their best shot. Others will try for more concessions and things like that. The Clan Invasion will show that the Houses, while tough, are paper tigers.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
08/31/22 11:10 AM
45.51.181.83
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We interrupt your regularly scheduled broadcast with a special news bulletin.
Katherine Steiner-Davion is confirmed dead.
The first daughter of Prince Hanse Davion and Archon Melissa Steiner is confirmed killed in battle as her Invader class jumpship "Ding Dong" had jumped into the (Redacted) system on an unknown mission.
An enormous space battle, involving a Jade Falcon warship, was raging as the FC tried to retake the world, when the Ding Dong jumped in too close to battle. The 2 Vengeance carriers "The Wicked Witch" and the "Is Dead" were attached as protection for Katherine.
"The Falcon warship used the naval weapons it had and utterly destroyed the jumpship, and then the fighter carriers.
Survivors said that the Falcons were using ECM to jam all frequencies, so even if the Ding Dong tried to surrender, it would not have gotten a message thru." according to Admiral Ozzy "The Great Oz" Spellman.
Tribute to Katherine will be next Tuesday at 6:00 PM.
Now back to your regularly scheduled program.
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ghostrider
09/06/22 02:54 AM
45.51.181.83
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Figured that would be a good way to remove Katherine from the story line, though you could use other characters to be rid of that way as well, though renaming the ships would be necessary.
For some stupid reason, the concept got stuck in my head and I had to type it out.
I do think that once the clans take Terra, or as they approach it, the houses will finally start becoming much better at fighting them. As said before, Comstar blocking coms from the houses people on world did a lot to hamper the normal ways the IS fights.
I would think that unless a deal is made, the houses would finally start actually pushing the clans back some, or hold them from advancing in most areas. I would think the clans would have to figure out how to fight the succession war style or run the risk of being bled out.
This would even be true once the clans start building factories in the IS, as personnel is the key factor here. Granted, until the IS can get a few warships going, that would be a major concern, but I could see the clans being forced to use the warships to escort their valuable cargo, IE reinforcement personnel and such, then attacking with them.
I would also think that the clans would have to increase the units they have, not only in the IS, but in the home worlds as well. I have yet to hear of any reserve forces the clans had back in the home worlds, which suggests they have all their eggs in one basket, in the IS. I believe a galaxy is very roughly equal to a regiment in numbers, so losing even a single Overlord dropship, fully loaded, would hurt their forces. Yes, they have poor logistics in the beginning, replacing the machines is easier then replacing the experienced pilots, no matter the games tag line.
Not sure how often they create a new sibko, but even having a dozen a year, would be replacing roughly 1 to 3 trinaries, figuring 1 to 3 recruits per sibko being passed.
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Karagin
09/06/22 05:49 PM
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Given how fluid things would be, I am sure that many "leaders" and "royalty" would be caught behind the lines or in the crossfire as the front shifts.
I can imagine many holodramas showing the brave heroine caught in the crossfire of the evil Clan attack force and how our hero braves this murderous death to save her, blah, blah, blah...and I am sure it would be the best-rated show in many of the House markets for a few years. But of course, we would see the endless Solaris 7 death matches of the former Fed-Com super warrior who fought the Clan Viper (note that part) to stand still on this Periphery world and single-handedly killed their saKhan in unarmed combat while hungover. Of course, all the right genderings are used so as to make sure the censors are kept happy. No hangovers were hurt in the making of this mockumetry.
The Inner Sphere Tabloids would have a field day with her going out the way you mentioned.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
09/07/22 03:07 AM
45.51.181.83
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It could well follow part of canon, when she went looking for help against the Falcons. This may well be how she was caught.
I could see a few movies where the hero has one shot left in his ac 5, and takes down 4 clan mechs with a nice ricochet set up, like in the old westerns.
Given how much damage Kai did, and how he repelled Comstar during operation scorpion, it is a shock the FC did not try to make him a hero along with Victor. But with movies and even halovids, it is possible to set off a few clan commanders by insulting their egos, gording them into making mistakes in order to make those people suffer. Might be another way to distract the flankers. Portrait the clan commanders as cowards that only come out to take the last shot that ends a battle.
This could work in the other way as well, though not as good. Thinking clan Diamond Shark makes a few videos making the house leaders look like the three stooges. This could well be done to get the FWL and CC involved in the war.
So what do you think Ulric would do with the flanking clans once Terra is taken?
Do they spread out where they are at, or drive towards Terra, forming a 'shield' to prevent the houses from being able to reach it.
One more thing is they could drive towards Terra, then spread out.
I don't think Ulric would seal off Terra, as the Wolves will need to be able to strike at the enemy, or lose face with the clans, even though they would be the ilclan.
Much like the issues with canon and the truce line. The Wolves and Bears had no way to expand their territory. I would think this would be an issue if the other clans do surround Terra.
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Karagin
09/07/22 11:05 AM
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I think he would have them do both, spread out some, and then drive in towards Terra. I agree; he would not seal off Terra, and having a border that faced possible future enemies would mean the Wolves would be able to test their mettle against the new forces.
Ulric would be at a good point, and it would be a good move by having the other Clans nearby and there to absorb some of the blows from the remaining Inner Sphere military forces. It also means that the Inner Sphere is still facing the Clans as a whole, not as individual political units. So the odds of them pulling off Bulldog are not going to happen at this point.
With Terra in the hands of the Wolves, I do see things changing for the rest of the Inner Sphere. There will we be a lull in the fighting. Everyone will be regrouping, especially the Clans, and things like the treachery from the CapCon need to be dealt with. The FWL will have its own issues as it integrates the ComStar refugees, the same for the FC and DC.
The FC is going to be hard-pressed more so than the other IS power. They are still going to be struggling to keep a link between their two halves open. And the tragic loss of Victor's sister, the determination to fight, will be there. (hey, it's about the only valuable and meaningful thing she could give)
As we said, the remaining Periphery powers will be restless, and some, like the TC, will try to take advantage of things and settle old scores. Others will hire mercs and prepare for the worse.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
09/07/22 11:47 AM
45.51.181.83
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Do you think the other clans might pause a little before moving closer to Terra?
Like stall for time and see if the IS can remove the clans from Terra?
If the Wolves lose Terra, does that mean they lose the Ilclan title? I know it was supposed to be into purpetuity, but with the clans, you must show you can hold it or you don't deserve it.
I could see the crusaders using something like this to allow another clan to take the title, even though they were not the first.
Maybe just moving more forces closer to Terra, using the reinforcement concept as an excuse?
They might have to, as the lose of warships would happen. As the clans are psychologically tied to warships, as canon brought up, they might be a bit more reluctant to head forward until they get more in the IS. As the scenario of Rassalhauge would not have unfolded the way it did in canon, the bidding away of the warships wouldn't have happened. It could still happen, but changed up a little.
Thinking about it a little more, it may well be that the Jaguars were so embarrassed by Turtle Bay, they may well have gone on a rampage in the DC, causing more damage without using warships, but also hurting their own forces by pushing that much harder. This could well have hurt their standing among the other clans, and even lead to trials back home. It would only cause them to slow down on further assaults, but not stop them. This could well be used by the Cats to embarrass them even further, by making it appear the Jaguars would not hold the flank, allowing them more access to taking Jaguar worlds as well as DC worlds. Yet another reason why the Jaguars were not able to reach Terra before the Wolves take it.
The lack of the Batchall from the Falcons could have the same effect, but not nearly as pronounced. Just set it up so the Falcons had to endure more worlds being given over to the Vipers, as well as hindering their advance as more worlds would be bid on with lower forces, causing more casualties for the Falcons and Vipers both.
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Karagin
09/07/22 03:19 PM
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I could see the Clans pausing. Doing the whole "Well, the Wolves took it, let's see if they can hold it" thing. Or we might see one Clan go, forget that and try to dislodge them, only to find out that the game, so to speak, has changed.
A pause is going to happen. Regardless of Ulric's clever, the fighting will be brutal, and he will need time to rebuild and regroup. Supplies would need to be brought up, and new planets would need to be garrisoned, etc... Each Clan will need the time to rebuild.
The Inner Sphere will require the lull more, so, as I stated, they are the ones who are going to have to get their "house" to either find a way to unite or find common ground, or it is going to be lights out for them one at a time. The CapCon's little MacBeth moment has to be dealt with, the FWL will need the time to adjust, and the LC/FS halves of the FC are going to have to really rethink a lot of things and prepare for some tough times ahead.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
09/07/22 04:26 PM
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If the FC splits, how is that going to affect the ruling line?
Would Victor stay in the LC half to try and defend them, or head to the FS side?
This is not even touching the units that were mixed, which some might stay where they are, while others will demand to head back home.
As there are LC troops in the terran (chaos) march, would they stay there, or head home?
Granted, part of this is questions before the Terran March is shut down. Afterward, the question remains, but get complicated by the available jumpships and how to get to the other side. The Terran March would be the only safe way, as the clans will not tolerate any enemy ships in their area, while trying to go thru the FWL and CC would result in issues like that as well. Even using uninhabited systems wouldn't be a good idea, as the clans would probably have something checking or even guarding them. The reason for this is they are the easiest ways the IS can strike the clans in soft spots. Bypass the front lines.
This is also suggesting the entire Terran March is taken, which isn't likely for a while. The FWL lost worlds are the weakest link here, as the CC lost worlds goes pretty deep into the old CC territory.
As long as there is some communications, the FC might try to hold out, if nothing more then sharing intel on clan movements. For physically moving units, that is a tough one. I would think once the small area taken from the FWL during the 4th war is clan occupied, the FC would probably break up, but not in a hostile way. It may leave a path open to reforming, once they can secure physical contact. Which, in this what if, may never come about.
At this point, it may well be necessary to remove the Liao house entirely, and try to ally with the FWL. Given Thomas's personality, this is doubtful at best.
I would think the most likely scenario to dealing with the CC, is using the St. Ives Compact issue. If Sunny hits the SIC, then the FC could use that as the reason to invade the CC once and for all. Yes, this is going to really cause issues with the clan front, but done right, it could be why the clans get to Terra.
It may actually work with Isis finding out Thomas is not her father, and causing a revolt to remove him. This could well lead to the houses finally getting enough push to work close together, but NOT forming the SL. Another name would be appropriate, so all remember the SL is dead, and caused a lot of the issues they fact today, including the clans.
Hmmm. A simple assassination of Thomas might work as well. Avoid blaming the FC, while possibly using this as a means to remove Sunny.
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Karagin
09/07/22 06:00 PM
70.118.172.64
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I think it will depend on how Hanse and Messlisa sell it. If they keep the charade up that the Fed-Com is still a thing, it might be business as usual. However, the different groups bent on breaking away will try something if the Clans split the two haves.
I can see Sunny going after the SIC and then making a whiplashing into the former CC worlds that Hanse took in the Fourth War when the FC troops moved to help the SIC. This would be a good move on his part since it would be using the enemy's own tactics against them. His biggest issue will be ComStar's response. Along with what comes from the FWL and the Periphery nations. Now, if he has the Magistrat and the Concordat allied with him, then I can see a more significant issue for the FC at this point as well for the FWL. He would be using the Clans' flanking tactics to gain an advantage over a stronger opponent, If that happens, the Fed-Com might be in more trouble, and collapse might be coming faster than just from the Clans splitting things.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
09/07/22 06:44 PM
45.51.181.83
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The clans initial wins were because no one but Comstar and the worlds attacked knew what was going on, and their greater tech. The IS always had the greater numbers and the willingness to sacrifice vehicles and infantry to bleed the enemy.
The canon story didn't really use this to good effect. When Comstar stops helping the clans, then more up to date attacks would give the houses the time to hit recently taken worlds or those that are behind the lines. Just knowing where the warships are/aren't would give them some breathing room. Where they are, would give them a chance to overwhelm them with fighter and assault dropships. Even just damaging them would force them to go for repairs, making planetary assaults more likely to succeed then having the warships show up and strand any in system forces.
This is not suggesting easy fights, just that the houses would have a better idea of where the front line is currently at. Guerilla tactics would force the front line to take far longer to conquer worlds, or even abandon them to the 2nd line or solemha units, which would backfire on the clans that did so.
Honestly, I really think the clans would need additional clans or risk losing more then a few worlds. It may well be that clans can take Terra, but the corridors are only a few jumps wide. Meaning maybe something like 5 jumps for each at best. The focus being take Terra, and worry about the rest later.
No, I don't see Ulric believing that tactic would work. I do see him excellerating the attacks to hamstring the others, making them take a massive beating to even try to keep up. Even with the Vipers and Cats, I don't see major spreading out until Terra is taking.
And yes, I do believe the other clans will push for trials unending against the Wolves to try and take Terra, even though their agreement was first to take it becomes the eternal ilclan.
I could see politics using the fact that the Wolves never competed to join the invasion, so never suffered the trials to participate. This could be the basis of refusing to adhere to the agreement for the invasion.
Oddly enough, I could also see some of the IS helping the Wolves to destroy a few of the clans because of this. Simply constant attacks on a couple of clans until they fall completely. Given the rivalry of the Vipers and the Falcons, along with the Jaguars and Cats, this could well force the flankers into a full collapse. The Bears being the question here. Do they try and hit the Wolves, or just build their domain in the IS?
As a side question, would the Bears stop once the FRR is defeated and just build their new homes there?
Or would they decide to leave their population back in the home worlds and commit entirely to the fight?
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Karagin
09/07/22 10:42 PM
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Ulric could use the internal Clan issues to cause the Crusaders to rip into each other and cause the whole thing to collapse, thus proving his point from the start that the Inner Sphere is not helpless, and thus the Clans should not be fighting them.
Lots of potential post-Fall of Terra stuff, and while the Inner Sphere might be getting a leg up with ComStar not helping the Clans, they still would not have up-to-date info either. They would not be 100% on where the warships are; recall, the issue is the Inner Sphere doesn't know if the Clans have refitted them with Lithium Batteries. That will mean any attack could have warships with them. I think you are giving far too much credence to ComStar and their wanting to work with the House military. They might share some intel, but Terra is all that matters for them. I don't see them doing anything beyond helping when it suits them, nothing more.
The House militaries will use infantry and vehicles as cannon-fodder to buy time, same with merc units. That would be something they would indeed be doing, More so for the DC than the FC, but it would still be done by both.
The Bears, now that is tricky, want a new home, but at the same time, they are Clan. I think they would push some forces forward while moving their full Touman in the right behind them, which would give them a leg up on the other Clans. It might also cause them trouble since it would look like they are abandoning the Way and all that.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
09/08/22 12:16 AM
45.51.181.83
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I was going to suggest the Dragoons would have known and supplied intel on the clans refitting the warships with the batteries, but since the meeting didn't happen, not sure if they would do that.
And the fact of Comstar allowing intel to flow was not about post Terra fall, but before that. Something like being the last coms of a world before the clans land sort of thing. We know the canon story had Comstar faking all transmissions, so the houses didn't know what was going on. Once this stops, intel is flowing far better then when Comstar stopped it all. I would also think that putting in the black boxes instead of ignoring them like canon did, would give them some more intel then they had in canon.
As for Comstar, they would be focused on Terra. This may well force them to work with the houses, as it is not known if Comstar could retake Terra alone. They may well bleed themselves dry trying to prevent the fall of it, and not have the reserves needed for a full counter offensive.
Either way, they may have to recall all the forces from the HPG network guard positions, if they haven't already.
I would suspect Comstar would work with the houses only so much as to have them and the clans bleed each other out, but do it less obviously then Walterly was.
But that does mean asking if Focht would do so, or possibly leave Comstar to return to the LC?
If he heads to the LC, how much of the Comguard would follow him, even if he didn't ask them to?
This may or may not lead to the Vipers/Falcons having more problems then before.
The Bears may well work to expand their territories, even if they don't push hard for Terra. The more territory they have, the more access to resources they would have. If they do push hard for Terra and fail, would they set up their dominion closer to Terra, instead of in the FRR? The Lyons Thumb does come to mind, especially since they would be going thru there to get to Terra. As canon stopped them from getting that far, they settled in the FRR.
There is some issues with the Way concept. As the clans were invading the IS to retake the TH/SL, wouldn't that mean they would have to move to the IS in order to run it properly? They could not try and hold it and their home world holdings. So moving to the IS, should be the next step after forming the SL. The Bears could well say 'unlike the other clans, we knew we would triumph. So we brought our people with us.'
This is yet another possible push to insult the other clans that are involved in the invasion. It would be even more embarrassing if the Bears make it to Terra to bid against the wolves, while the others are stuck chewing their way and not even without a couple of jumps.
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Karagin
09/08/22 10:43 AM
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The Dragoons info would be there, but it's going to be dated, and again, it's still going to have the Inner Sphere jumping around, thinking every attack will have a warship. A similar take on this was every tank the American units encountered in Europe for a hot minute was reported as a Tiger tank; while it's true, they did run into those, not in the numbers the reports claimed. The same thing would be happening here.
Oh, they (ComStar) will be working with the Houses, but they would not be seen as a faithful ally, more of one of the moment. Their primary focus would be to defend Terra and keep the Clans off it. If that means maneuvering the Houses to take the brunt of the fighting, then that's what they will do. At this point, I would say the only thing defending most HPGs are small infantry units and or security teams of ROM agents. All mechs and vehicles are already committed to the worlds in the path of the Clans main drive on Terra.
IF Waterly is dead, who is running ComStar? Focht will not be doing this; that game has already burned him, and so is Mori or another.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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ghostrider
09/08/22 12:08 PM
45.51.181.83
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The question of who runs the first circuit after Walterly is one that need to be answered. We know she will be killed at one point, so who will take over? Mori is the only other person on the first circuit I know of, so couldn't being to say who else might take over.
The timing of when it happens may well have more major effects then what happened in canon. The next person could well be worse. It could daisy chain into the CC going from helping to attacking the FC, as a 'deal' could be done between the replacement and Sunny. Or Sunny might think they are too weak to do anything against him. It could well be the replacement secretly made a deal to return some worlds to the CC in return for some help with defending Sol. Hell, Walterly could make that deal depending on when she dies.
As Comstar had hired periphery pirates to be mercs, would they expand that concept and try to get them to defend Terra, though probably serving on worlds in the path then on Terra itself? I could see this blowing up in their faces, causing more damage to the IS then the clans. Maybe them sacking the worlds instead of defending them. The chaos would allow the clans to take them will less effort then normal.
Another scenario would be for the pirates to just run when engaged. This would demoralize other defenders, and give the pirates more equipment to use in their 'jobs'. Having a portion of your forces leave really screws up your defensive plans...
Maybe using the Republic of the Sphere name as the new SL might work. It would not be the crap of the canon story, especially since the Republic would not be formed around Terra. That is if the houses get their crap together and form a coalition to deal with the clans.
As a side note, do you think the clans would have an extreme hatred for the periphery realms, especially the TC? It was their war that helped cause the fall of the SL, as well as their nasty tactics that hurt the SLDF enough to even set up the Amaris strike on the Camerons?
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ghostrider
09/10/22 11:09 AM
45.51.181.83
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There are a few things that relate to the invasion, but isn't pure military in scope that could use some answers.
The idea of having space stations being built comes to mind. Yes, they are primarily military in scope for the clans, but not something for offensive maneuvers. Things like how many would be built?
Would they increase the numbers as the years roll on?
It is also something to figure out how the clans will try to govern the planets they took when Comstar is not doing it any more. I know each clan will rule differently, but the idea of almost constant unrest on some worlds, at least for a while, would have some effects on their push into the IS.
Would they take control of all factories, including normal civillian ones, and shift them over to weapon production? This would include things like clothing makers and such.
I could see a shift in farming items being changed over to things the clans prefer as well.
As for combat, would the clans decide the target IS jumpships, as a means to lock the IS onto worlds, since commercial jumpships would be considered a waste of resources to them? I don't really see there being many jumpships used by the clans for purposes of just allowing the masses movement through out the clan cluster. Some will be required, such as scientists and merchants, but I don't see sight seeing tours happening.
It does lead to the question of if the clans would produce more warships, to patrol their systems in the IS? I would think so, as they will start doing in the IS, the same thing they do in the cluster. There will be trials of possession called for. With the increased number of worlds they control, they will need to have the forces on hand to answer those challenges.
Which also calls for once Terra is taken, would that free up the other clans to be able to head into the IS, and start challenging for worlds as well as invaded non clan worlds?
My understanding is the 4 initial was only for the purpose of seeing who becomes the Ilclan. Once that is over, the restrictions would/should drop, so all can now move to secure territory in the IS.
This could well lead to the initial clans having to stop taking worlds, in order to deal with those coming in. The chaos that could result from the other clans coming in, might well lead to the smaller nations as each would be dotted around the areas, with concentrations being of a smaller size.
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