Nimon
07/19/05 11:29 AM
64.95.219.124
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You keep looking at the short term goal.
with the added resources from the Cap Con space, this would give more resrouces (and mech factories) for Hanse to use. The combine might be a threat at the moment, but Hanse knew that the Commonwealth was going to be joined into the Fed Suns, and with the additional industrial capacity from captured cap con worlds they could litterally build more troops than the combine could kill. Hanses problem when he did the war that failed in I think it was 3058 (going on memory there) was that he tried to go to fast into Combine space before he had the over whelming forces that he could have had if he had waited 10 - 20 more years (Hitlers down fall in WWII he had the better trained military and better equipment he just started the war before he was really prepared to). So again Hanse had the right idea to take the Cap Con space, he just tried to make his time table move faster than it really could.
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Karagin
07/21/05 08:06 PM
63.157.58.46
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Again you are missing the point of the dicussion. We know that going after the Cappies was easier, but that is NOT the point.
The dicussion is about Hanse going after the one nation that was a major threat to the his relam, which the Combine was. I think with the Lyrans pushing in from the other side, and the Suns going for the Derion District, then they could have pulled it off.
Beyond that the Cappies would have thought twice since the Combine was beat what could happen to them would come to mind and IF Hanse and sent in Allard as double agent as well, then the Cappies would be in no shape to do anything and also Hanse could use the card that he was holding of causes issues for Marik that could have spilled over in to CapCon space thus rendering any actions by Laio to nothing beyond border raids. And he was well aware of his brother in laws actions and schems and plots.
Hanse's had no need to go after the CapCon until the writers changed gears mid story arc, then the Cappies became the bad guys and the Combine the evil but untouchable enemy. That is how things got changed, the Suns attack the weakest power in the Inner Sphere and win, no suprise there.
Now as for the what if's about the War of 39, I think Hanse should have waited until at least 3050 to attack the Combine, that would have given him more time. Now can we go back to talking about the attack on the Combine as oppsead to the CapCon as was original asked.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/22/05 11:36 AM
64.95.219.124
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Actually I was adressing that and giving the reasons it was not done.
Basic points
(note Questionable loyalty was to the Coordinator not to the Combine as a whole)
Dieron District:
Kessel Prefecture 15 worlds on Steiner boarder;
3rd Dieron Regulars - Regular / Reliable (medium reginemt specialized in city fighting)
12th Sun Zhang - Green / Fanatical (light regiment no special training)
11th Legion of Vega - Regualar / Questionable (Heavy regiment no special training)
Kingston Caballeros - Regular / Questionable (no details on this unit)
22nd Dieron Regualrs - Veteran / Questionable (light regiment specialized in recon)
Vega Prefecture 8 worlds on Steiner boarder;
2nd Legion of Vega - Regular / Questionable (Medium regiment no special training)
14th Legion of Vega - Regualr / Questionable (light regiment no special training)
2nd Dieron Regulars - Veteran / Questionable (light regiment specialized in mountain warfare)
Al Na'ir Prefecture 17 worlds on Davion boarder;
5th Sword of Light - Elite / Fanatical (one light batt, one medium batt, and 2 heavies city fighters)
9th Sun Zhang - Green / Reliable (light regiment no special training)
18th Dieron Regulars - Elite / Reliable (Heavy regiment specialized in city fights)
15th Dieron Regulars - Regular / Reliable (assault regiment with no special training)
8th Dieron Regulars - Verteran / Reliable (medium regiment specialized in night fighting)
36th Dieron Regulars - Regular / Reliable (light mech batt specialized in open fields warfare)
Ashio Prefecture 13 worlds on Davion Boarder;
27th Dieron Regulars - Regular / Reliable (medium regiment no special training)
12th Dieron Regulars - Green / Reliable (medium regiment no special training)
Brion's Legion - Regualr / Questionable (no details)
9th Dieron Regulars - Regular / Reliable (heavy regiment no special training)
Algedi Prefecture 13 worlds on Davion Boarder
24th Dieron Regulars - Green / Reliable (heavy regiment no special training)
with the following as reserves from the Pesht District without weakening any hostile boarder
3rd Pesht Regulars - Regular / Reliable - Light regiment special training recon
4th Pesht Regulars - Green / Reliable - Medium regiment no special training
6th Pesht Regulars - Green / Reliable - Heavy regiment no special trianing
7th Pesht Regulars - Green / Reliable - light regiment no special training
9th Pesht Regulars - Green / Reliable - Heavy regiment no special training
10th Pesht Regulars - Green / Reliable - Assault regiment no special training
1st Sword of Light - Veteran / Fanatical - 2 Medium batt, 1 heavy, 1 assault night fighters
7th Sword of Light - Verteran / Fanatical - 2 light batt, one medium, one assault batt City Fighters
Johiros Regiment Night Stalkers - Veteran / Questionable - Light specialty in raids
and 17 regiments in the Galdeon District and 13 in the Benjamin District for 30 more regiments attacking in that Theather. And Steiner would be facing 21 regiments from Rasalhague so thier battle plan could not have been much diffrent from what they did.
Note that most of the worlds near the core are heavily populated and thus city fighters are more deadly in these situations, also Dieron got the best supplies after the elite Swords of Light so all units are well maintained and at a high state of readiness. Last note Pesht units while last on the supply list, are also in well maintained order as they have no hostile boarder they had to defend.
Leaving 58 battalions guarding 66 worlds with regiments stationed together and not broken up into battalions guarding each world leaving that to the local tank forces and mechs are move into position when the enemy is determined. With 27 batts in reserve.
Counter this to what Davion faced vs the Cappellans.
Prefectorate Guard - 3 batts Veteran / Fanatical - Medium Heavy Regiment *destroyed*
Northwind Highlanders - 3 batts Veteran / Fanatical - Medium mechs *Switched sides after half regiment lost*
1st Ariana Fusiliers - 3 batts Veteran / Fanatical Medium mechs *2 batts destroyed 1 escaped*
2nd Ariana Fusililers - 3 batts Regular / Reliable Salvaged units *1 destroyed 2 escaped and destroyed later*
Ariana Grenadiers - 1 batt Elite / Fanatical Heavy/Light *Mod casualties, retreated*
1st Chesterton Voltigeurs - 3 batts Regular / Reliable Medium - *Light mod casualties, remaining surrendered*
2nd Chesterton Voltigeurs - 3 batts Regular / Reliable Light - Heavy *2 destroyed one surrendered*
3rd Chesterton Voltigeurs - 3 batts Regular / Reliable Light - mod casualties - *retreated then destroyed on diffrent world*
Hamilton's Highlanders - 2 batts Elite-Vet / Reliable Light - Medium *Destroyed*
Lothar's Fusiliers - 1 batt Regular / Reliable Light heavy casualties - *retreated and destroyed on diffrent world*
Trimaldi's Secutors - 2 batts Regular / Reliable Medium - Light *2 companies destroyed - retreated and destroyed*
Vincent's Commandos - 2 batts Regular / Reliable Light - Medium *destroyed*
Blackwind Lancers - 1 batt Veteran / Reliable Medium - Heavy *surrendered*
Justinia's Curassiers - 2 batts Elite-Vet / Fanatical Heavies *surrendered*
Stapleton's Iron Hand - 3 batts Regular / Reliable Assault - Medium *mod casualties - escaped*
Cochraine's Goliaths - 1 batt Regular / Reliable Assault *destroyed*
1st Confederation Res Cav - 3 batts Vet-Reg / Reliable *2 batts destroyed*
3rd Confederation Res Cav - 3 batts Reg-Green / Questionable *Destoyed*
4th Confederation Res Cav - 2 batts Green - Reg / Questionable *Surrendered - one batt drowned*
Justine's Grenadiers - 1 batt Veteran / Relaible Medium - Heavy *destroyed*
Freemont Cuirassiers - 2 batts Regular / Reliable *one batt mod casualties and one batt destroyed*
McCrimmons Light Cav - 1 batt Regualr / Reliable Medium - Light *2 destroyed, 1 heavy casualties - destroyed on diffrent world*
MacGrefors Armored Scouts - 2 batts Regular / Reliable Heavy - Light *1 batt destroyed and 1 surrendered*
Kerrs Intruders - 2 batts Regular / Reliable Assault - Heavy *1 destroyed, 1 heavy casualties - then surrendered on diffrent world*
McCarrons Armored Cav - 2 regiments Elite / Fanatical Heavy *2 batts destroyed, high casualties on 3 batts and one retreated*
4th Tau Ceti Rangers - 1 batt Regular / Reliable Heavy - Medium *Casualties but raid successful*
Laurels Legion - 1 batt Regular / Reliable Light *2 companies destroyed, one defected*
1st New Hessen Irregulars - 3 batts Regualr / Reliable *2 batts destroyed and one retreated*
2nd New Hessen Irregulars - 3 batts Regular / Reliable *Destroyed*
House Hirtsu - 1 batt Veteran / Fanatical Medium *destroyed over 2 worlds*
House LuSann - 1 batt Veteran / Fanatical Medium *destroyed over 2 worlds*
House Fujita - 1 batt Veteran / Fanatical Medium *destroyed*
House Ijori - 1 batt Veteran / Fanatical Medium *destroyed over 2 worlds*
71 battalions spread out over 44 worlds each world holding at least one battalion.
Because Max had his forces all over the mech losses looked huge because Davion could mass on each world he was attacking making it a mech batt vs a mech regiment (3 : 1 odds). Which would not have been the case vs the Combine thus losses would be much higher. Also unlike the CC the mechs of the combine were off the front line, held to counter where mech forces were detected. Keeping the regiments together would make these counter attacks more devestating. As I noted the CC did not make any counter attack effort, instead they garrisoned worlds trying to figure out where Hanse was going next. And lastly, Davion would have for sure been facing huge pushes by both Galedon and Benjiman Districts as they would know for sure where Davion forces were (Though allied the Coordinator still did not trust Max's intell). Now Steiner would have given more forces in that area but then again would have left thier boarder open to the Raselhague District who (with the Red Duke) made no pretenses that if they saw any weakness they would have invaded as many worlds as possible, which forced Katrina to keep her forces over on that boarder. And lastly, I have to state that Max would have been attacking Hanse in the rear. Hanse plan worked because he left a skeleton garrison on the Draconis boarder, and if it was not for the Dragoon defection the entire Draconis March would have been lost and New Avalon would be threatened. FASA even mentioned that if Jamie did not hold the combine up that Hanse may have beat Max but still lose his capital to the Dragon. Hanse took a gamble and it paid off.
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Karagin
07/22/05 12:09 PM
65.140.156.25
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No you were not you were repeating canon events and saying that is how it would happen no matter what.
Siting numbers that are AFTER the changes made by the then current batch of writers and authors doesn't do anything but support the events as they were changed.
PRIOR to the change the Combine and the Suns were more then evenly matched. Neither side had the advantage. When Hanses made his attack on the CapCon he stripped the Periphery of troops he could still do the same for this attack on the Combine.
Using your points, why didn't the Combine attack the Suns when they were so busy in the CapCon, oh wait they were busy dealing with Commanwealth and the Dragoons...and the troops in the Draconis March were still veterans and still up to strength. Gee no raiding up and down the line by the Sword units...
The troops in the Derion District were equal to what the CapCon had at the time, with a push from both sides of the District the Suns and LC forces could have captured the area, and I think the Skye groups would be very happy to get back lost worlds and push the boder further away from them.
The attack on the Combine was doable UP to the change in focus by the authors and TPTB at the time of the events at FASA for what the 4th War was going to do to the BT universe.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/22/05 12:23 PM
64.95.219.124
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Ok once again (Writers not withstanding)
Davion could not have made a push into the Dieron District. the forces needed to take that area were at least equal to what was in the Cap Con. The Benjamin District could have flanked and cut off the attackers supply lines. The forces on the combine front were stripped to keep those field forces in the field and moving.
Also, as I stated above, Cap con had thier forces splintered apart. Classical military blunder #1. the combine kept its mech forces off the front, used a lot of tank forces on the boarder to slow an attacker down a week or so, then mech forces would be decending onto the world, the attacker (Davion) would now find that he is facing a new enemy that knows whats there and is geared to beat him. all the stories that lead up to the 4th Succession War always pointed to where the Dragon always out manuvered Davion, this does not mean the Davion did not win thier share, just means that the combine knew how to manuver thier forces better, and would have caused Davion more of a bloody nose and thus making holding worlds harder (heck almost 4 regiments defencted to Davion and helped garrison worlds they just took allowing his forces to push forward again which would not have happened in the combine).
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Karagin
07/22/05 05:59 PM
63.157.57.101
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Teh Deiron District had the same set up forces as what the Suns faced when they attacked the CapCon, so how is it NOT possible for them to take the District? Add to that the Lyrans will also be hitting the same area as well. So the Combine would be forced to draw troops from other border areas as well as inwards and thus they show up piecemeal.
And as I pointed out above the idea here isn't about the CapCon getting attacked, we know what happen there. This is about what if the Suns and their Allies went after the Combine INSTEAD of the CapCon. Again we know what happen to the CapCon, we know they were having major internal issues, and their military was all over the place, we know they had TWO major spies in their ranks as well as dissatisfaction among both the locals as well as the military. We know Laio and his family were on the wacky side, we know that Hanse had a beef with them over the whole dooplerganger deal, we know Hanse had info that Haske-Davion was plotting against him and we know he was taking steps to deal with it. ALL OF THIS HAPPEN AFTER THE NOVELS CAMES, not before. Why the focus was changed from the issues that House books and other soucesbooks were stating as issues between the Combine and the Suns coming to head soon will never be know, but given that if Hanse used the same force going after the Combine as he did the CapCon he could have got equal gains over all from the attack and while they might not have been easy gains he still could have set the Dragon back years and also given him a very well tested and bloodied military Machine that would have given pause to Laio's efforts. Adding in that he still could have had Allard go in and play spy, he still had the FWL card to play since he had MIIO and the other spy groups of the Suns working to mess with them big time and he also had a very loyal (well to some degree) ally in House Stiener and with them attacking the Combine along their shared border it meant the Combine was facing invasion on TWO fronts and they didn't have the resources to stop that with out stripping other vital areas and the Raselhague folks could have rebelled as well some of other not so happy folks in the Combine.
Again why the writers and the powers that be at the time changed things, they never really said. Reading the Wolves on the Border and the Heir to the Dragon gives some insight in to the issues and problems in the Combine, all of which could have gone against the Combine. In the long run, the emegering FedCom could have got most of the Derion worlds, some along the Stiener border, even with lossing the Raselhauge worlds, and a few on the Davion border with Combine. Roughly 45 worlds all told.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/23/05 02:21 PM
65.71.125.124
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I do not know how many times I have to state it.
Cap Con had its forces spread out in battalion sized forces except for a few stratigic worlds. The DC did not spread ANY of its forces out, this is where the diffrence comes in.
With Cap con space, Davion has such great success because they OUTNUMBERED the defender 3 or more to one because they were spread out.
DC on the other hand kept its Mech regiments together and off the front to counter attack where Davion would be weakest at if they invaded.
You only hear of 3 total counter attacks by Cap con on Davion forces, which means Davion had control over the area and had suprior manuverability.
DC for all the stories leading up to the 4th succession war DC almost always outmanuvered the FS. That is why the DC was so feared was because it could outmanuver FS.
So looking at it this way, Yes Davion would have taken worlds, but Davion would have suffered much larger losses, and without all the units switching sides to garrison worlds I suspect that they would have had a much holding the worlds for any period of time.
Point 2 the Dieron District is heavy population (hense all the city fight specialist). FS only had 2 regiments that specialized in city fights (DC had obviously more) that alone is whats called a combat multiplier (makes a unit fight with greater effect than a non multiplier unit). If you have the chance read the Galdon Campain in this battle 12 Combine regiments (Galdeon mostly) fought Draconic Milita and 5 Elite Merc regiments. Though Davion won both sides were all tore up (few units were less than 50% losses on both sides). This was against the Galdeon District that is of a lower combat status than the Dieron District. Also this was the Combine attacking (which is what would happen if FS attacked as mech regiments were one jump back from frontier worlds). Where Cap con did little to stop the inital attacks and harldy hurt Davion so he could do a total of 6 waves. The Combine surely would have gave as well as it took. Yes worlds would have been lost, but Hanse would be lucky to do 2 waves at most. Also with the Benjmin District attacking (Galdeon was tied up attacking Wolves Dragoons which I find hard to belive that even an elite unit outnumbered 4 to one in mechs alone not to mention other assests that are required for war). Even green troops (which the combine had nit few of those were attacking most were regualr troops) that have the numbers can swarm over elite people eventually as elite people would require rest, and with the numbers and transport assets I find it hard to belive the Dragoons (from a realistic military standpoint) could have done what they did even with Clan training. Now back to the Benjmin district that could have counter attacked (it did take 5 boarder worlds in the 4th succession war but halted as they awaited more orders from the coordiantor) and would have put pressure on the rear areas of the theater of operations that was pressing into the Dieron District. Even though the Warlords of the Combine despised each other they always put the combine first as to not do so would have been death to them. One other thing that seems to be forgotten is that Liao usually mated 3 tanks and 2 inf for each mech. The combine mimicied FS, 5 tanks and 3 inf per mech. so right there you already have more tanks on the battlefield which also would slow the davion advance allowing the counter attack units more time to pick better targets.
Davion and Steiner would take worlds, but the cost would be the Red Duke taking about equal Steiner worlds (that is where the bulk of the Steiner trops were facing the Red Duke and not in the Dieron District), and they surely would have lost worlds along the Benjmin District front and possibly Galdeon worlds if the Coordinator ordered worlds to be taken instead of revenge vs the Dragoons. That coupled with the higher that would have been suffered and making garrisoning worlds harder would have halved the worlds taken. And in the over all scheme the war may have netted no gain in worlds, have a weaker boarder with the Capellans and FS with a huge debt that they would have to pay with no huge gain in resources.
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