Nightward
07/08/05 01:04 AM
202.161.15.111
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I dunno. I think an early decleration of war would have forced the reconciliation earlier. One of the major factors was that the Dragon had to stand united. Also, if things kick off right after the wedding on Earth, the Combine would have to turn to the Kanrei- Takashi was recovering from a stroke.
The FWL wasn't going too badly; certainly enough to cause trouble to the rear. If the CCAF came to the party with a moderate amount of brainpower and attacked the Lyran Commonwealth, they'd be forced to pull line units out to defend the rear. With Rasalhague protecting so much of the flank, the Dragon, meanwhile, could afford to go light-on in that area. No-one would ever threaten Pesht, but those troops aren't real flash, either.
Best-case scenario for the FedCom would have been a push across the base of the Combine, taking down the Chaos Marches and forming a bridge through the Terran Corridoor. Potentially they could lop off a heavily populated area of space and strengthen their own borders, but a solid advance line would not happen.
A situation like that would also lead to an en masse deployment of the Sword of Light. Personally, I'd favour a round trip through Periphery space to attack behind enemy lines.
Essentially, the Lyran side isn't going to change much. Hanse might be able to expand his Deiron March or lop off the base of the Combine, but not both. And either way, he's going to run up against some seriusly unimpressed and highly motivated DCMS troopers, which always proves a lethal combination.
He never would have been able to do to the DCMS what he did to the CCAF. Hanse was good, but he wasn't Anastasius' equal. And Anastasius got the beat-down from Theodore...
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
07/08/05 01:48 AM
63.158.169.182
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That is what I was suggesting from the start, the LC and FS take out the Derion area and systems towards Terra, thus allowing them to link up. And while things might not fully change on the LC side if the Raselhauge card is played there will be enough units tied down that the Combine will still be hard pressed to do more then stalemate the FS and then hold the line. IF things heat up again in 3039 and the DC get's ComStar help with the mechs and weapons and possible troops then maybe they can push the FedCom back.
And while things might have thawed for Theo and his father, it wouldn't have happen until after he got off of Vega and made it to where he could conveince his father to allow him to be in charge.
Even if the Sword of Light units get tossed into the battle they can't be at more then one place at any given time. The trip through Periphery is a great idea, but given that it would be a very dangerous route and long under taking would more then likely cause the Combine High Command to dismiss it as fanasty.
The FWL and CapCon could be a rear area threat, but they wouldn't do much unitl they are both sure the LC and FS can't respond and are totally focused on the DC.
Fredrick Steiner, went on the mission he did, to atone for his actions against Katherine, Theo defeat his troops yes, but that seem more like he planned it so the Loki agents could do their dirty work to the Jumpships and Dropship Theo was gathering. So while the end results was his getting captured, it all worked to his militaries advantage and cleaned his record in Katherines eyes.
Foche, aka Freddy Stiener learned from his mistakes, just as Hanse did from his successes to some point and as did Theo. Thus three of them were able to revamp their respected groups and get more out of them. That is really all they did.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nightward
07/08/05 03:03 AM
202.161.15.111
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Except that Frederick knew nothing about the Loki agents; he tells Theodore that at the end of the Warrior trilogy. He's just as surprised by their presence as Theodore is, and he's worried by their presence as well, because he fears Theodore won't accept his surrender.
Katherine and Melissa knew about the assasins; presumably Nondi did as well.
Since the CC and FWL are members of the Concord of Kapteyn, watching the FedCom go after the Combine would definately spur them into action; the Combine is the only card they can really play as a trump; in the event of a combined offesive, the Combine would be some sort of threat to the FedCom. They let the CapCon fall without comment because realistically, the Confederation couldn't hold its end of the bargain. Appeasement and ignoring the problem were better options strategically.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
07/08/05 10:27 AM
63.157.59.186
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And some how the CapCon is going to be able to much of anything in the alternate timeline we are talking about, they are just as impotent here as in canon.
The FWL was being messed with big time by Hanse and the MIII and didn't have the time to go after anyone in a major way. Sure they could grab one or two worlds but that's it.
So the Combine's two allies are great on paper, but fail to even measure up for the real fight. No I think it be the LC/FS against the DC and ComStar might step into help the Combine, if it doesn't Waterly will try to help via covert means or she might launcher little coups in the ComStar political forum sooner rather then later.
Freddy might not have know everything, but do recall he volunteered to go on the suicede mission to try and blunt the Combine's attack all because he woke up to the fact he was being fooled by his uncle and his uncle's grab for power.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/08/05 10:48 AM
63.120.82.166
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One thing you forget about the Swords, they have no reguard for populations that they can not control (Kentares IV anyone). I think if the Swords and DEST got involved Hanse would have had a mess worse than what we see going on today. Not saying Hanse could not take those worlds, but as the clanners found out the citizens of the Combine (for the most part) were loyal to the coordinator and the combine and terror acts would be abound. This was not as prevenent in CC as they are not such a tight bound society like DC (based on Feudal Japan and remember how the US was lery of invading the homelands of Japan)
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Nimon
07/08/05 10:52 AM
63.120.82.166
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Karagin you gorget one of the best units Cap Con had that Hanse has never been able to beat, Macs Armored Cav. Imagine 5 merc regiments knowing they can trounce through FS spaces with little resistance..oh wait it was done once by them and it caused the Prince at that time tons of political headache. Startagy wise the romp did nothing, politically it gave the opponents of prince at that time fuel and headaches. I could see the chancellor letting them romp again in that area which would have caused problems to the prince especially if FS forces invading DC got bogged down.
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Karagin
07/08/05 11:29 AM
63.157.59.186
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To some extent I am sure that DEST and ISF could indeed stir the population up and get them to be a royal pain to the FS. But even so that will sooner or later wear thin and things will quite down.
There was a lot of "gureillia" fighting on former CapCon words for a while and then they stopped, and came back with help from the CapCon. So something like that could be done here as well.
The Swords I think would held to prevent a major strike on say Luithen, not saying that would happen. Hanse would have it as a goal but I think he would be going more a link up with the LC and then a buffer zone between that the rest of the Combine. Having not looked a detailed map, books are currently packed, I say they would rougly 50 worlds total between the LC and FS. That is after Rasulhague card being played, if that doesn't get played I say maybe 15 more worlds. As for there holding all 65, no, more like half that, with main ones being around Derion and other former TH worlds.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/08/05 02:01 PM
63.120.82.166
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I doubt the combine would have let Ras leave though if it was invaded though. Ras was done as a move to give DC more time to reform its military and not have such a large boarder to defend. The only reason Ras was let go was that DC wanted a boarder that woud be a minor threat so it could concentrate its forces on the FS enemy they knew would be coming. If FS already invaded there would be no need to let RS go as the boarders would have been at a stable state at that time (i.e. armies moved as far as they could while maintaining support and supply lines.
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Nightward
07/08/05 08:07 PM
203.206.26.140
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CapCon =/= Draconis Combine.
In the CapCon, unless you are a Citizen you belong to an underclass. If you can't speak Manadarin, ditto. The CapCon had a long history of brutalising its populace. Whilst there was some guerilla activity, it was sponsored by the Mask and carried out by a broken and disillusioned people.
Now let's have a lok at the Combine, which instills incredible levels of devotion in its troops and citizens. Which has the second-best intelligence apparatus in the Inner Sphere (after ROM). Which has a much more skilled, motivated, and equipped defence arm than the CapCon.
I sort of doubt that the Confederation would have lost as many worlds as you suggest the Combine would have- and the Confederation was a hollow opponent. Its intelligence service was run by a Davion spy. Its people frankly welcomed the AFFS, figuring they might have a better chance with them. Revisionist history where the CapCon turns into an all-conquering juggernaut whose lost people beg it to return are an invention of a later time.
Further, if the CapCon and FWL are so insignificant, why garrison the borders at all? That makes no sense.
Only units from the border and the interior of a Successor State can be deployed; the Border Marches still have to be manned (I'd say over-manned, to minimise the threat and damage of an attack).
The DCMS, meanhile, strips the Alshain and Pesht Districts. The Dragon's Claws would form early. Yorinaga Kurita would not face down Morgan Kell. And so on and so forth.
Even in the War of 3039, where the FedCom didn't have to worry about anything else, that many worlds did not change hands.
The Sword of Light would be committed early, likely against the Davion Guard. Fighting on their home turf, I seriously doubt that the Davion Guard would be able to defeat the Sword- which would then go on a rampage. Luthien is far enough away from the lines that the only time in the Combine's history where it was invaded was when the Clans tried it. A FedCom push isn't going to get anywhere near the Black Pearl.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
07/08/05 09:16 PM
63.157.59.40
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You are forgetting that BOTH the LS and the FS would be going after the Combine given their alliance. So the DC getting rid of the Rasulhague District would give them less of a border, able to pull troops back and readjust things as they did in the cannon history and then they could use those troops to either try and push back the FS or stop them cold.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/08/05 09:24 PM
63.157.59.40
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I never said this would be a cake walk for the FS. I said IF they focus on the Derion section as the main thrust, they could take that. Thus linking up with the LC. Meanwhile the Combine could counter everything by pulling the Raelhague card thus rendering the LC gains mute and thus free up troops
The fighting would have been bloody and brutal, but again you are going with things of the Combine being ready for the FS, while they might play tick for tat, no one was expect a war in 3028 but Hanse and Katherine. Giving the Combine all the goodies they AFTER TPTB at the time changed the focus to the CapCon then sure they can beat just about anyone but seeing how they don't have all the cool toys and have other issues like oh let's see, die hard Bushdio thinking that if you are not with the program you are against it. The idea that a Combine citizen wasn't second class, read the House Kurtia book again, the ISF and police kept a tight control on everything, media was censored, press was censored etc...the Combine was just as tough on it's populace as the CapCon was.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nightward
07/09/05 10:34 PM
203.173.16.118
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Maybe the CapCon and DC are harsh on their citizens. IMO, there's not much difference between Japan now and the Combine of BT, though.
Difference is that the Combine's attempts are successful. They're xenophobic, they're fanatically devoted to the Combine, and they don't want anyone else's culture imposed on them.
The results are different, even if you think the methods aren't.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
07/09/05 11:09 PM
63.157.234.106
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The results are the same, an opressed population, even if they stay loyal to the state, doesn't mean they will fight on against the enemy. Sooner or later it comes down to this, support the rebels and be killed or maybe killed if turn them in.
IF the Suns can hold the planets for as long as they did CapCon worlds in canon history, then maybe we wouldn't see fantical stance of the population, but we might still see some hold outs here or there. And the Combine has enough cracks in it's culture and population to cause trouble if pushed just right, hence the Rasglehauge and their drive for independance, and the Black Dragons and the other groups running around the Combine.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/09/05 11:14 PM
63.157.234.106
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This is true they could do it again, but is Maximillian willing to risk it? He still has the FWL to worry about and while not that well defended the Suns will still have some decent troops on their CapCon border.
I could see this happening only if Max feels that he can get away with it and not have any thing bad happen in return. It's possible he could let this happen if or when ComStar slams the FS with the Interdiction, that would be the best time frame for him to unleash the MAC and let them have at it. But I think if he does, then the War of 39 might see the Suns going after him instead of finishing the Dragon off. Ironic twist there when you think about the canon history and who Hanse went after in 39.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Karagin
07/09/05 11:16 PM
63.157.234.106
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Thought I would say excellent topic and one that has pushed some new life into this place.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/11/05 10:53 AM
65.240.118.50
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If this is true (Citizens not fighting vs a incoming army) why did the citizens of the Combine cause so many headaches to the clan invaders? Its because of that feudal mentality that has been breed into them. Maybe the immediate boarder systems would not be as fanatical, but the farther you get from the edge the more troops you have to use to garrison with. THAT is why I say LC and FS could not have taken and held the dieron district. That district alone would tie down so many troops it would cause the defenses else where to suffer. A perfect example is Iraq currently. Militarily we beat the army there. But because of the soft hand of rebuilding we are facing huge underground fighting. This in turn is tieing up a lot of troops and this is a small county, imagine entire WORLDS like this, it would easily tie up entire combat groups, once the groups are tied up, the actuall forces can flank and attack supply lines.
As Night has said earlier, the DC people were devoted to the combine unlike the Cap Con people (of that time). It would be easy for ISF agents to get the people to fight, perform sabatage, poison food and water, disrupt command, control, and supply lines. You shuold refrence back to Japan of WWII and the trouble marines had rooting a few japanesse inf off islands and that they could never let them get back there as they would hold up again for years and years (some are still found eevn today 60+ years after the war).
even with both FS and LC attacking I doubt they would have gotten what FS captured from Cap Con, and I am sure that they would have been mired there for years upon years which would have given thier political opponents (Hanse and Katrina's) fuel to cause them all sorts of headaches back home.
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Greyslayer
07/11/05 10:54 AM
216.14.198.54
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Quote:
Maybe the CapCon and DC are harsh on their citizens. IMO, there's not much difference between Japan now and the Combine of BT, though.
Difference is that the Combine's attempts are successful. They're xenophobic, they're fanatically devoted to the Combine, and they don't want anyone else's culture imposed on them.
The results are different, even if you think the methods aren't.
This is a view held by the more central planets around luthien and deeper. Many of the planets in that corridor and along the border have changed hands many times and have always been considered by both sides as dubious in support. This is supported by how easily the chaos march rejected rule by Kurita even though some of those planets were the same xenophobic ones you talked of.
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Nimon
07/11/05 10:54 AM
65.240.118.50
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Max hated Hanse more than Janos. If the boarder on FS space (which was once Cap Con space) was lightly garrisoned I can make a safe bet that his forces would have tested and taken worlds.
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Greyslayer
07/11/05 11:01 AM
216.14.198.54
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Forgetful are we not? Think Justin Xiang .... how much doubt could he put into the CC machine from that position to stall or forewarn the davion troops making it look like more troops on the border than there really was? Unless the MAC was given a freehand they would be gutted with further subtefuge from JX.
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Nimon
07/11/05 02:14 PM
65.240.118.50
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When units are warring its hard to hide where your troops are.
Also, the Northwind Highlanders were just waiting to go back home. If even the hint of that area being garrisoned by lesser units might have spurred them into action. That is 5 battle mech regiments that turned to Davion with the promise to return home. The Highlanders shown they were a match for the well trained forces of Davion. People forget how many units surrendered or turned to Davion which allowed his forces to keep pushing while not having to garrison rear worlds. Whould not have been so easy on the other front where the military (even those of questionable loyalty) will fight and few if any will turn to the other side.
Edited by Nimon (07/11/05 02:20 PM)
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Nightward
07/12/05 12:12 AM
202.161.8.213
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Yeah. I think everyone's defended their arguments as well as possible, and that they were reasonable points of view. However, we forget to take into accont a major factor:
Author Fiat. The FedCom was the favoured child of the authors back in the day. Frankly, the DCMS would have done well fictionally if they didn't collapse before the MITEY HANSE DAVION!i! and his military machine. In novels... likely, the DCMS would have done something like kentares again, galvanising the AFFC into something resembling Kail Allard-Lio crossed with Galahad. The Combine would be annihilated.
Yea, verily. Let it be known far and wide that Nightward loathes MW: DA. Indeed, it is with the BURNING ANIMUS OF A THOUSAND SUNS that he doth rage against it with.
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Karagin
07/12/05 06:16 AM
63.157.58.75
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Maybe maybe not. I am still trying to figure out why the powers that were at the time changed the setting away from the Combine to the Cappies.
As you said author fiat plays a role as well, and given that the Combine had been getting as much book (novel) time as the FedSuns one would have thought they would have run with it as it was written via the House books and the ohter info out there. But then again FASA never could seem to figure out what one hand was doing over the other.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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chez
07/13/05 09:34 PM
62.173.81.122
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Funny how some good topics come out of idle speculation.
Remember it's the posters (us) who make a good topic. More power to us!!
Looking forward to the next thread.
Also , you'll have to forgive the fact that I don't post often as work and stuff gets in the way
chez
"In order to stab someone in the back it is first necessary to get right behind them" Sir Humphrey Appleby
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Karagin
07/14/05 06:48 PM
63.157.57.79
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Frontier worlds as Greyslayer pointed out change hands yearly in some case, so those folks are less likely to be willing to die unless something like another Kentares happens or the FS does something really stupid.
The core worlds where no one has really attack in a century or more are less likely to be quick to fight, sure they maybe loyal and support the state, but when it comes down to it they are more worried about themeselves and their families, the state be damn.
Transposing WW2 Japan on to the Combine is like tryin to say the FedSuns is the US/UK of the same time frame. It doesn't work. The citizens of the Combine knew what they could and could not do, they didn't know all the truths about the wars they were asked to fight nor did they have outside info coming in since the Combine controled the media just as tightly as the CapCon and others.
And if you would note the folks that stood up to the Clans, where the outcaste and trouble makers that ALL the Houses have, so it wasn't the common citizens, it was the criminals and the renegades who fought back. Noting that the Bears and Jaguars held and still hold Combine worlds for 20 years now in the case of the Bears and it took the Combine landing mercs and SL units as well as reinvading their former holdings to get the populace to do anything.
SM Stirling in his Draka books gives an interesting point on this topic here, two Russians are talking about whether or not they should help the Draka fight the Germans or attack the Germans themselves without helping the Draka paratroopers, the Russian girl says that while they might drive out the Germans they will be trading one master for another, and while at first they will be fighting for Russia and their way of life, they will end up as nothing but bandits hunted down and turned in by the very people they are trying to save, because those people will come to fear them and thus feel it's better to live under the rule of the Draka then to have to rebuild everytime the rebels/partisans come out to try and get supplies etc...so the bottom line some will fight, others will shrug their shoulders and go on as if nothing happen and still pay taxes and life goes on.
IF the FS and the LC both aim their main drives through the Derion area I think they could have easily netted that and about 10 world up and down the rest of the border. Now if they focus on the Derion sector and then let the LC go forward as they actually did, then I still think the Combine would lose the Derion area and the would have to play the Rasulehauge card to mute and neuter the over all gains that the FS and LC would make.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/15/05 11:02 AM
65.240.118.50
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Your very focused on the Dieron District. the question is, with the Fed Suns military over in combine space, how many worlds would have fell to Max? Is if far more crazy than the coordinator, and any gains would have spurred him to take more worlds (after all Max loathed Hanse). Would Hanse survive the political termoil of losing more Fed Sun worlds to the Cap Con than he gained from the Drac Combine? And if Hanse fell from grace it would have cased a lot of other up heavals (the Fed Suns was from what I read the most voilitle of the political structures where pretenders to the throne popped up more often than hurricanes running through the gulf of mexico).
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Karagin
07/15/05 12:38 PM
63.157.58.154
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You are forgettting one thing, UP to the releasing of the novels Sword and Dagger and the Warrior Triology, CapCon wasn't high on Hanses list of things to deal with.
I doubt the Cappies would even attack the Suns unless they were 100% sure they could keep what they took, they might raid a few worlds but that is it. The CapCon was prior to the shift in focus of the Davion military machine and after a paper tiger waiting to be burned.
And yes I am focused on the Dieron District, because it makes sense for the Suns to drive through that area to link up with the Commonwealth, thus giving them their Terran Cooridor.
And ALL of the IS Houses have pretenders popping up all of the time, so it's not just a Davion thing.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/15/05 05:53 PM
65.240.118.50
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BUt your forgetting taht Max was mad. He thought he had more and better troops than he actually had. And if hanse went at the Dieron district (which I looked up had as many mech regiments as the cap con had so the same forces would have been needed so he would have had to use the same amount of regiments and he did not know of the wolf defeection until after the war started) that would have left the Cappellan and Cirius Marches seiously undermanned and remember the biggest opponent to Hanse was in the Cappellan March. leaving him to his own devices while in a major war (i.e. your troops are not in the theater) would have set hanse up for a coup possibly and Hanse I know had to know of Sandavols intention to replace him as Prince.
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Karagin
07/15/05 08:32 PM
63.157.56.126
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Max may have been mad, but he still had to worry about the FWL. As well as his own allies in side of the CapCon. Hanse on the other hand would be attacking the main threat to his relam, it was the Combine NOT the CapCon that ALMOST made it to New Avalon, it was the Combine that had been a major thorn in the side of the Suns since both nations meet. So going after the Combine would be the smart move. Yet that didn't happen, the Powers there were in charge at the time changed things, Max wasn't shown as being nuts in the Novel Sword and Dagger, so that is something that came LATER on.
Yes the Cappellan march wasn't run by someone who was 100% loyal, but let's use your arguement of the folks there being loyal to the state, they wouldnt be thrilled to see that they are now part of the CapCon via a coup and would more then likely fight to remain part of the Suns. I am sure that Hanse would have taken measures to make sure that Hasek couldn't do much damage and Sandrvol would be thrilled that Hanse was seeing the light and going after the Dragon as it should been years before.
The attack on the Combine could have happen and mix it would the Lyrans attacking as well on their own border, the Combine was on it's own. Cappies aren't going to be an issue and while they migth attack, Max would have to worry about the FWL and other internal issues like his son.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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Nimon
07/18/05 01:29 PM
65.240.118.50
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If you read the books closely, the Capellan March govoner was in bed with Max, so it is completely beliveable that a large block lke that would make a push to take over the throne of New Avalon. The reason he and his Sirtius Fusilers were behaved was because there were so many loyal forces in his theater.
I still belive that Hanse had to hit the Cap Con, reason being he was bankrupting his empire. He needed something to get his peoples morale back up and behind him solidly. Easiest path to do that is to win a major war. To win a major war you have to ensure that you can take everything swiftly and you are not bogged down. Hanse took 1/3 - 1/2 the Cap Con worlds, wrecked thier military and ensured he had time to consolidate his new gains. Vs the Dragon who has more depth to thier empire, a greater ability to counter attack (the Pesht district which is basically protected on all sides and thus a huge reserve force in comparrison) who would keep the war going for much much longer demoralizing the Davion population as they are bogged down in a long war thus draining the economy more. Stiner would have had about the same gains (not much) as no forces were sent over in that area to reinforce for the most part. So the Arguement to Steiner helping the Davion push would not have been that great (plus Skye the district opposite Dieron on the Steiner side hates Davion which could have caused probelms that way also). Hanse had no idea that the Dragoons were going to leave DC, so he had to assume that he would be also facing those 5 elite regiments also in his planning. With all that Cap Con was the better of the two choices.
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Karagin
07/18/05 07:13 PM
63.157.58.88
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Okay so you support the canon events, again this about the Suns going after Combine...we know the outcome of the CapCon attack, so the discussion shifts things to the other major threat to the Suns, the Combine.
If you read the sourcebooks, you will note that things have the Suns and the Combine on a collision course, yet when the novels come out the focus shifts to the CapCon, that has never been explained by anyone at FASA or FP. Also nothing is stopping Hanse from still sending Justin in to the CapCon as hisspy and agent provoature all while pushung on towards dealing the Combine a blow that will hurt it enough to give Hanse time to consoldate and dig in. So leaving aside the offical canon events we are talking about things related to the original question.
And acvtually Hanse did know that the Dragoons might be on their way out of Combine space, re-read Wolves on the Border.
Karagin
Given time and plenty of paper, a philosopher can prove anything.
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